Real Vision: Finance & Investing

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They Used To Say the Sun Never Sets on the British Empire Sep 28, 2022

Show notes

We’ve seen what could very well be an act of war perpetrated beneath the Baltic Sea. We’re watching the crumbling in real time of one of the world’s oldest, longest-standing economic, political, and financial pillars. And Hurricane Ian is bearing down on a densely populated coastal region extremely vulnerable to storm surge, high winds, and other attendant threats. But the three major U.S. equity indexes are ripping higher! Andreas Steno Larsen opens today’s Daily Briefing with a discussion of the U.K. and the extent to which its fiscal, monetary, and pension catastrophe could infect the rest of the world. With “sabotage” and “contagion” and “Cat 4” rising and “inflation” fading as the market’s main theme, Darius Dale joins to talk about what, if anything, today’s rally means in the bigger picture.

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Something Is Brewing in the Baltic Sea Sep 28, 2022

Show notes

The word “sabotage” is in heavy rotation today, as the world wonders why natural gas is leaking from two pipelines that run under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany. This can only make things worse, on a basic energy supply-and-demand level as well as for the more complex geopolitical landscape. The major U.S. equity indexes opened in positive territory but turned negative early in the trading day, as yields continued to rise. Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Tony Greer, the founder of TG Macro, to talk about the global energy market and what these mysterious leaks portend. We also hear from Suriya Jayanti, the co-founder and managing director at decarbonization and renewables consultancy Eney LLC, about who holds the leverage in Europe’s energy crisis. Watch the full conversation between Andreas Steno Larsen and Suriya Jayanti here: https://www.realvision.com/shows/make-or-break-energy-crisis/videos/we-have-to-own-our-energy-crisis-now-qp22?source_collection=852d5cce52bd4c829fc3d84de72c55b8.

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Global Yields Continue To Climb Sep 27, 2022

Show notes

The British pound reached a record low, the People’s Bank of China stepped up its support for the yuan, the Bank of Japan defended its own intervention in defense of the yen, and every major currency in the world traded lower against the U.S. dollar today. Meanwhile, yields are spiking, particularly at the short end of the curve, and bonds are in their first bear market in 76 years. Should we be on the lookout for something big to break? Is the strong U.S. dollar going to cause a crisis for the rest of the world? Gordon Johnson, the founder of GLJ Research, joins Maggie Lake to talk about recent price action. We also hear from Jim Bianco about why inflation has probably peaked. Watch the full first video from our new Make or Break series featuring Jim and Raoul here: https://rvtv.io/3BPr7ph.

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The Next Big Trade - Rick Rule Makes the Case for Uranium Sep 25, 2022

Show notes

For the past 45 years, Rick Rule has been investing and speculating in the natural resource industry. The president and CEO of Rule Investment Media and the chair of Equinox Gold joins Harry Melandri to talk about why he’s turning his focus to uranium. In short, Rick is taking a long view on a resource that could help solve what will soon be a global energy crisis. Never miss an episode of Next Big Trade - subscribe here.

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My Life in 4 Trades - Self-Knowledge Is the Key to Better Investing Sep 24, 2022

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Denise Shull, an expert decision coach at The ReThink Group, leverages her background in neuroscience and modern psychoanalysis to guide professional investors, traders, athletes, and entrepreneurs to maximum performance at times of high risk. In this special episode of My Life in Four Trades, Denise joins Maggie Lake to talk about the universal lessons drawn from the eclectic and unique career of Hugh Hendry. Never miss an episode of My Life in 4 Trades - subscribe here.

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This Is About the Fed's Volcker Worship Sep 24, 2022

Show notes

With global markets on the edge and investors concerned about a multitude of extant financial and potential political headwinds, Maggie Lake welcomes back Raoul Pal for today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing. “Are markets breaking?” sounds hyperbolic. But U.K. debt is being re-priced as if it’s issued by something less than a third-world country. And foreign-exchange markets “are presently screaming global depression, not recession,” as one prominent member of the FinTwit community put it. Maggie and Raoul talk about the global liquidity situation and how the Federal Reserve will respond to another mess of its own making. Indeed, as Raoul noted early Friday, “The central bank experiment of Volcker worship in a massively indebted economy is on its last legs in the coming month or two.”

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Why the Forex Market Matters Right Now Sep 23, 2022

Show notes

Mere hours after the Federal Reserve announced a third consecutive 75 basis point rate hike and reiterated its commitment to bringing inflation back to its 2% target, the Bank of Japan stuck to its ultra-low interest rate policy and intervened in foreign-exchange markets on behalf of the Japanese yen for the first time since 1998. Weston Nakamura joins Andreas Steno Larsen at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the danger this policy divergence poses to the global financial system. Could we be on the verge of a currency war in reverse? Then, Andreas welcomes Tavi Costa, a partner and a portfolio manager at Crescat Capital, to talk about how to position for what Tavi recently described as “a vicious stagflationary environment.” We also hear from Nancy Davis and Kris Sidial about how to hedge downside risk amid rising volatility. Watch the full conversation featuring Nancy and Kris here: https://f.io/gHuRgo0F.

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The Fed Feels It's Doing What's Required Sep 22, 2022

Show notes

The S&P 500 was on its way to a fifth consecutive “decision day” gain this afternoon – until a unanimous Federal Open Market Committee confirmed the market’s 100%-priced-in expectation of a 75-basis-point increase to the federal funds rate target range but firmly underscored its hawkish tone. Stocks turned red and yields surged at 2:00 p.m. ET, as the FOMC’s “dot plot” suggested another 125 basis points of rate hikes over its last two meetings in 2022 and further tightening well into 2023. Reiterating that it’s “highly attentive to inflation risks” and that it “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate,” the Fed also lowered its growth forecast for the year. Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen welcomes Joseph “The Fed Guy” Wang for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about Fed policy – looking back and going forward – and what it means for risk assets. We also hear from Thomas Hoenig, who led the Kansas City Fed for 20 years, about the risks “quantitative tightening” presents to the global financial system. Watch the full conversation featuring Thomas Hoenig and Harry Melandri here: https://f.io/fd0SmXxX.

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It's a Busy Week for Central Bankers Sep 21, 2022

Show notes

The Federal Reserve is just one of 16 central banks making interest-rate decisions this week, but it is the most widely watched monetary policy body in the world. And its current path – errant though it may be – is having a profound effect on the global economy by pushing up the U.S. dollar. The most recent data on the U.S. housing market surprised to the upside, but it’s just one piece of the puzzle. “I like that we got wildly positive homebuilder data,” tweeted Tony Greer today, “but the sector is still trading like it’s petrified of higher yields.” Tony, the founder and CEO of TG Macro, joins Ash Bennington for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about recent price action in key corners of the market, notably energy, as well as what he expects from the Federal Reserve tomorrow. We also hear from Weston Nakamura about what this week’s abundance of central bank activity means for financial markets and economic growth. Watch the full video featuring Weston Nakamura here: https://rvtv.io/3SmmDNU.

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Can the Fed Stick To Its Guns? Sep 20, 2022

Show notes

All three major U.S. equity indexes were essentially flat at the halfway point of Monday’s trading session, with attention squarely focused on the outcome of Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. As a 75-basis-point rate hike is a foregone conclusion, the main event will be Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference. Incoming data continue to suggest the economy is slowing, highlighted by a rapidly cooling housing market. Darius Dale, the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, joins Real Vision’s Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to preview this week’s central bank action. We also hear from Thomas Hoening, the longest-serving Fed president in U.S. history, about how risks posed by monetary tightening – i.e., rising unemployment – will test Powell’s resolve. Watch the full conversation featuring Thomas Hoenig and Harry Melandri here: https://rvtv.io/3qPyEQ3.

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