Real Vision: Finance & Investing

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How to Position into the Fed Meeting Dec 09, 2022

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Stocks are relatively flat while treasury yields moved higher following an upside surprise in U.S. PPI this morning. Producer prices rose 0.3% month-over-month in November, above market forecasts of 0.2%. In today’s show, Maggie Lake is joined by Spectra Markets’ president Brent Donnelly to help us understand the latest inflation data and what it means for next week’s Federal funds rate announcement. Plus, Brent will share some insights on trader positioning from his firm’s 2023 Q1 consensus survey. Shocker… everybody’s bearish. We also hear from Former Hedge Fund Manager Russell Clark on why we are looking at macro all wrong. Watch the full interview here: https://rvtv.io/3FELx7C

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From Crisis to Recovery Dec 08, 2022

Show notes

U.S. jobless claims this morning rose to their highest level since February. Meanwhile, China’s outbound shipments plunged 8.7% year-over-year and Hong Kong stocks rose 3% as the financial hub considers easing up on covid lockdowns. On today’s show, Maggie Lake sits down with Taimur Baig, the Chief Economist of Singapore-based bank DBS, to discuss the mixed economic data from around the world, and hear why Taimur believes the global economy could be setting up for a promising recovery. We want to hear from you, so make sure to get your questions in!

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Is It All Over for Energy Bulls? Dec 07, 2022

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Price action continues to reflect investors’ collective ambivalence about what comes next, with Wall Street warning of grim prospects for both stocks and growth in 2023. As Jason De Sena Trennert sees it, the “greatest risk to the economy and markets may be the Fed’s need to tighten more than risk markets anticipate.” That crude oil is probing near-term lows even as China eases some “COVID zero” restrictions is just one point of confusion. Trennert, the founder and CEO of Strategas Securities, joins Andreas Steno Larsen to break down what crude oil and other key markets are telling us right now, how inflation will become “sticky,” and why the Federal Reserve will have to go higher for longer.

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What’s the Matter With Big Tech? Dec 07, 2022

Show notes

The U.S. equity sell-off extended to a fourth straight trading session today, as the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite again led to the downside with a 2.18% loss two hours ahead of the close. Meta Platforms is under regulatory scrutiny in the European Union, Apple is contending with supply-chain restructuring, and Tesla faces stiffening competition amid its CEO’s social media dabbling. And job cuts across the broad tech sector suggest we may be witnessing the end of an era. Maggie Lake welcomes Eric Jackson, the founder of EMJ Capital, to talk about what’s happening with big tech – and to distinguish it from growth tech. We also hear from Whitney Baker, the founder of Totem Macro, about the challenges of building more robust supply chains. Watch the full conversation between Whitney Baker and Andreas Steno Larsen here: https://rvtv.io/perform.

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From the Macro to the Micro Dec 05, 2022

Show notes

The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of services activity rose to 56.5 last month from 54.4 in October, surprising to the upside and stirring fresh worry the Federal Reserve will continue to err on the hawkish side when it comes to monetary policy. The major U.S. equity indexes all sagged more than 1%, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite shedding 2.13% two hours ahead of the close. Crude oil climbed, however, as a G7 price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian production kicked in and China inched closer to re-opening its economy. Andreas Steno Larsen joins Maggie Lake at the top of today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the global crude oil market, the shift back to “services” from “goods” as the pandemic recedes into memory, and the durability of demand. Later, Maggie welcomes Jeff Meyers, the CEO of Cobia Capital Management, to talk about emerging opportunities in small-cap technology names. We also hear from Diego Parilla about a new paradigm based on higher inflation, permanent volatility, and elevated risk. Keep an eye out for the full conversation between Maggie Lake and Diego Parilla, to be released tomorrow.

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The Next Big Trade - Michael Gayed: This Bear’s Got Long Legs Dec 04, 2022

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It’s already been a tough, strange 11 months for everyone – and 2022’s not over yet. On a weekly interval basis, the S&P 500 has been in the red for more than 60% of the year. Treasuries have gone through multiple, nasty downturns and haven’t exactly performed counter to traditional risk assets. How much longer will this bear last? Are there any signs of hope? Michael Gayed, portfolio manager at Tidal Investment Group and the publisher of The Lead-Lag Report, joins Harry Melandri to break it all down on another fascinating episode of The Next Big Trade.

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My Life in 4 Trades - You Can’t Control Events, but You Can Profit From Them Dec 03, 2022

Show notes

Harris “Kuppy” Kupperman, the founder and chief investment officer of Praetorian Capital and the author of the “Adventures in Capitalism” blog, has been investing for more than two decades. You don’t survive that long in financial markets without accruing some success. Kuppy joins Maggie Lake to discuss his approach to trend-following and event-driven investing, with illustrations from the early days of COVID-19 about minimizing risk and maximizing profit.

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Too Early To Signal a Pivot? Dec 02, 2022

Show notes

Equity futures sagged this morning with the release of a stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report for November, as both the pace of new hiring and wage growth suggested inflation is more than a matter of snarled supply chains and a European war. Cem Karsan, the founder of Kai Volatility Advisors, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for today’s Daily Briefing to assess the implications of persistent U.S. labor market strength. We also hear from Whitney Baker on why a recession is the only thing that will stunt consumption and thus slow inflation. Watch the full conversation between Andreas Steno Larsen and Whitney Baker here: rvtv.io/3VIFnbU.

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What About Growth? Dec 01, 2022

Show notes

The Institute of Supply Management’s gauge of manufacturing activity declined for the fifth month out of the last six in November and slipped below 50 for the first time since May 2020, another sign that growth is slowing in the U.S. As investors look forward to Friday’s jobs report, initial claims for unemployment insurance reached 1.6 million during the week ended Nov. 19, the highest level in a year. Weston Nakamura welcomes Daniel Lacalle, the chief economist at Tressis, to talk about growth in the U.S. and abroad as central bankers continue to strike appropriate policy responses. We also hear from Geo Chen, the author of the Fidenza Macro blog, who explains why whoever replaces Haruhiko Kuroda as the governor of the Bank of Japan will be forced to hike rates sooner rather than later. Watch Geo Chen’s full presentation here: https://rvtv.io/3H0XR36.

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Shall We Call This a Pivot? Nov 30, 2022

Show notes

U.S. equity indexes surged into positive territory as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke on Wednesday on his acknowledgement that the “time for moderating” interest-rate increases “may come as soon as December.” The market seized on the step-down from 75 basis points to 50 rather than Powell’s codicils: the rate peak is likely “somewhat higher” than the Fed’s September forecast, and there’s a long way to go to restore price stability. In addition to more restrictive monetary policy, Powell noted the critical importance of labor market balance among the macro conditions the Fed wants to see before it’ll say inflation is whipped. Dave Lauer, the CEO of Urvin Finance, joins Ash Bennington for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the market’s reaction to Powell’s speech, recent economic data, and the implications of a “sustained period of below-trend growth” that gets us back to price stability.

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