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Bank Execs Clash with Lawmakers at Hearing on Bank Failures May 19, 2023

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A Senate hearing on recent bank failures turned into a prickly confrontation between bank executives and lawmakers. Former leadership for Silicon Valley, Signature, and First Republic Banks were hammered by lawmakers about why their banks collapsed. And there wasn't a lot of agreement on the cause. Bank executives blamed the government and the media, while lawmakers blamed mismanagement and greed. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Please remember to subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review. Silicon Valley Bank made the biggest splash as the first bank to fall with about $210 billion in assets. Signature bank had about $110 billion when it was seized by regulators. They were the third and fourth largest banks in the U.S. so their failures raised huge concerns about the impact on the entire financial system. First Republic went south and teetered for a few months after it lost billions in deposits, and was largely taken over by JPMorgan. SVB CEO Blamed a Series of "Unprecedented Events" In a joint session before the Senate Banking Committee, former Silicon Valley Bank CEO Greg Becker pointed a finger at the federal government, saying the bank's failure was the result of a series of "unprecedented events." He testified that: "With near zero-percent interest rates and the largest government sponsored economic stimulus in history, more than $5 trillion in new deposits flooded into commercial banks. By the end of 2020, SBV had grown 63 percent over the prior year, and in 2021, SVB's assets grew another 83 percent to $212 billion." (1) He also pointed out that during the pandemic, when inflation started to become an issue, the Federal Reserve insisted that inflation was "transitory" and that interest rates would remain low. Massive Bank Run at SVB The bank's collapse largely happened after a decision to invest more than half of the bank's loan portfolio into fixed-income Treasury securities, when interest rates were low. They are considered "low risk" but they are also impacted by interest rate hikes. When interest rates blew up to fight inflation, the value of SVB's portfolio shrank and that forced the bank to sell at a $2 billion loss. When news spread about the bank's situation, depositors became concerned about accessing their funds and the bank experienced a massive bank run. Media Misconceptions Becker also blamed the media for comparing the March 8th failure of Silvergate Bank to Silicon Valley Bank. He told lawmakers that the two banks had completely different business models, and said: "Rumors and misconceptions quickly spread online, culminating on March 9th with the first-ever social media bank run leading to more than $42 billion in deposits being withdrawn from SVB in 10 hours, or $1 million every second." Two More Dominoes to Fall Former Signature Bank Chairman Scott Shay was miffed that his bank was seized by New York State regulators on March 12th. He insisted that the bank would have survived that bank run. He argued: "We were at all times solvent and well-capitalized, and even with the sale of our available-for-sale securities, we still would have remained well capitalized." Former First Republic CEO Mike Roffler also blamed social media and news stories for inciting panic among depositors along with technology that allows for fast-paced digital withdrawals. Roffler told lawmakers: "The contagion spread very quickly and panic is very hard to control." (2) Lawmakers Blame Mismanagement, Greed But lawmakers also took the conversation in a different direction, criticizing bank leaders for millions of dollars in bonuses and personal stock sales ahead of the failures. Senator Sherrod Brown ripped into Becker saying: "Workers face consequences, executives ride off into the sunset. Only in corporate boardrooms can you run your business into the ground, take the whole economy along with you and come out ahead. We can't let that happen again." Some lawmakers said that bank executives could have reduced the risk by hedging their portfolios, but that they, instead, placed profits ahead of safety. As explained in a Washington Post article, Silicon Valley Bank had financed short-term liabilities with long-term debt. It seemed like a no-brainer when interest rates were low, and to be fair, there was a lot of talk about interest rates remaining low for a very long time. But when the Fed started hiking rates, the value of those Treasurys went down. Lawmakers say the bank could have swapped those longer-term notes for one with shorter-terms that match the duration of the bank's liabilities. But they say the banks didn't do that because it would have been more expensive. (3) Sharp Words from Some Senators The session became downright nasty at times. Senator John Kenney of Louisiana had sharp words for what he called SVB's "stupidity." He told Becker: "You made a really stupid bet that went bad, didn't ya? And the taxpayers of America had to pick up the tab for your stupidity, didn't they?" (4) He continued saying: "No, this wasn't unprecedented. This was bone-deep, down-to-the-marrow stupid. You put all your eggs in one basket and unless you lived on the International Space Station you could see that interest rates were rising and that you weren't hedged." Let's hope we've seen the last of this kind of banking madness. You can read more about this by following links in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. I always encourage listeners to hedge their own financial empire with real estate. You can learn how to invest in rental properties at RealWealth. Becoming a member is free and will give you access to all our educational material as well as our investor portal with valuable data on rental markets, sample properties, and help from our investment counselors who can answer your questions. Just hit the "Join for Free" button. And please remember to subscribe to this podcast! Thanks for listening! Kathy Fettke If you're a RealWealth member, just sign into the portal and look for DealCheck under the Resources tab. If you aren't a member, it's free and easy to sign up. And, please remember to subscribe to this podcast! Thanks for listening! Kathy Links: 1 - https://commercialobserver.com/2023/05/svb-signature-ceos-blame-federal-govt-media-bank-failures/ 2 - https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2023/05/17/lawmaker-blasts-first-republic-chief-you-were-one-of-3-worst-run-banks-in-us/?sh=256ad3e18d07 3 - https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/03/15/svb-s-fateful-mistake-could-be-lurking-in-your-401-k/0f139944-c31b-11ed-82a7-6a87555c1878_story.html 4 - https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/17/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

The Real Estate News Brief: Two New Inflation Reports, U.S. Debt Default Impact, Gallup Poll on Investor Preferences May 17, 2023

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In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending May 13th, 2023... some good news about inflation, how a U.S. debt default might impact housing, and a new Gallup Poll on investor preferences. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with two inflation reports from this past week. The first was a report on the Consumer Price Index for April. The CPI shows a .4% rise in consumer prices which is a slight increase from the previous month, but it brought the annual rate below 5% for the first time in two years. It hit a high of 9.1% last summer, but is now down to 4.9%. The core rate, which omits food and fuel, was also down .4%, with an annual rate of 5.5%. Shelter prices rose the most, but those prices are slowing down. It's interesting to note that the three-month annualized rate is now at 3.2%. (1) Producer prices are also coming down. The Labor Department reported a .2% increase in the Producer Price Index for April, with an annual rate of 2.3%. The PPI's core rate was also down .2% but the annual rate is a bit higher, at 3.4%. As MarketWatch reports: "Inflation is moderating at the consumer and producer levels. This is adding to market expectations that the Federal Reserve will refrain from raising interest rates further at the next meeting in mid-June." (2) The Fed's preferred report on inflation, known as the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index or PCE, will play a big role in what the Fed does next. That's coming out at the end of this month. Weekly jobless claims were a surprise on the upside, with 240,000 people filing for benefits. They were 22,000 higher than they were for the previous week. Economists had only expected an increase of 3,000. That's the highest number of claims since October of 2021. The numbers have been steadily rising since January, for a total of 1.81 million continuing claims. Higher numbers indicate a softening of the job market and slower wage growth which the Fed wants to see in its fight against inflation. (3) Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates are still idling in the lower 6% range. Freddie Mac says the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down four basis points to 6.35% this last week. The 15-year was down one point to 5.75%. (4) Freddie Mac's chief economist, Sam Khater, says: "A recent sideways trend in mortgage rates is a welcome departure from the record increases of last year." (5) In other news making headlines… Mortgage Rates Would Skyrocket if U.S. Defaults on Debt As lawmakers haggle over the debt ceiling, there's concern about what would happen if they don't come to an agreement and the government defaults. According to Zillow, it would have a devastating impact on the housing market, with mortgage rates potentially rising to 8.4%. That would increase a typical mortgage payment by 22%. (6) Zillow says if mortgage rates get to the 8% level, existing home sales could fall from April's 4.3 million to around 3.3 million in September. That's a 23% drop. Zillow's senior economist, Jeff Tucker, acknowledges that a default is "unlikely" but if it did happen, he says it would send the housing market into a "deep freeze." It is hoped that President Joe Biden and Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy will hammer out a deal by June 1st. In a Bloomberg interview, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said: "There is no satisfactory solution for the U.S. that's good for the economy and financial markets other than Congress acting to raise the debt ceiling." Fed's Rate Hikes Are Now Hurting the Housing Market Housing economists are not happy about the latest rate hike. The Fed hiked short-term rates another quarter point to a range of 5 to 5.25%. The National Association of Realtors' Lawrence Yun and the National Association of Home Builders' Robert Dietz call it "disappointing." They say the high rates are freezing loan activity and hurting the economy. (7) They say that consumer prices have been coming down for months and the last rate hike wasn't necessary. Yun says that: "Regional banks are an important source of loans – but they are frozen." He says: "They are shuffling their balance sheets and figuring out what to do." Dietz says that higher rates are making it harder for developers to build homes, which are badly needed to boost inventory. He says: "We need to be building more than 1.1 million homes a year to haVe a meaningful impact on the lack of inventory." Real Estate Still a Top Investment Choice, but Lead is Shrinking A recent Gallup poll shows that real estate is still a top investment choice, but the lead is shrinking. In 2022, 45% of the participants said that real estate is the best long-term investment. This year, that percentage shrank to just 34%. (8) Many consumers have turned to gold, which has now taken second place and pushed stocks into third. Gold was favored by 26% this year, compared to 15% last year. Stocks dropped from 24% last year to 18% this year. Savings accounts, CDs, and bonds are up slightly but they are still in fourth place. Gallup asked some of the participants about crypto, but that has lost its luster with the recent collapse of the FTX crypto exchange, and a decline in crypto prices, especially for bitcoin. Only 4% of Americans are choosing crypto. Last year, it was 8%. That's it for today. Check the show notes for links, and the "Join for Free" button to become a member of RealWealth. It's free to join, and you'll have full access to our website including our investor portal where you can check out various rental property markets and find out how to make real estate work for you in this tough environment. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-consumer-price-inflation-cools-to-lowest-rate-in-two-years-in-april-ef69d854?mod=home-page 2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-april-producer-prices-rise-2-3-over-past-year-smallest-increase-since-january-2021-8afa903e?mod=economy-politics 3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-hit-264-000-in-latest-week-highest-level-since-last-october-d63852a4?mod=economy-politics 4 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms 5 - https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/mortgage-rates-are-steadily-edging-downward 6 - https://therealdeal.com/national/2023/05/12/us-default-would-send-mortgage-rates-past-8/ 7 - https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/housing-economists-fed-policy-now-hurting-real-estate 8 - https://news.gallup.com/poll/505592/real-estate-lead-best-investment-shrinks-gold-rises.aspx?utm_source=google&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=syndication

The Real Estate News Brief: Hints at a Pause, Mortgage Rate Averages, ChatGPT Home Search May 12, 2023

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In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending May 6th, 2023… why economists are expecting a rate hike pause, where homeowners are paying the most and the least for their mortgages, and new home search help from a chatbot! Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week, and the big news is, of course, the Fed's rate hike. The Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee followed through on an expected quarter point hike to the overnight lending rate, which puts the target range between 5 and 5.25%. It was the 10th rate hike in a row and a unanimous decision among committee members, despite calls for a pause from some Congressional lawmakers. (1) The Fed also appeared to suggest that it might now be time for a pause, by eliminating a sentence that says "some" additional rate hikes may be needed. Instead, the statement kind of hedged on the idea of rate hikes by saying that any further rate hikes would depend on "the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affect economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments." Economists are interpreting that to mean that the Fed is prepared to take a more "dovish" approach at its next policy meeting. As MarketWatch puts it, the Fed is "on hold." Fed Chief Jerome Powell also said in his press conference after the meeting that: "We are no longer saying we anticipate" rate hikes. He says: "We will be driven by incoming data, meeting by meeting." (2) Some economists say the Fed has already gone too far. Chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun, is one of them. He called last week's rate hike "unnecessary and harmful." Yun says inflation has been coming down and will continue to do so. He says: "It will be even lower as the heavyweight component to inflation, which is rent, will inevitably slow down given the robust, 40-year high in construction of new apartment units." He also says that many small banks are struggling right now. He says: "They are becoming zombie-like banks, unable to lend even to good businesses, as they are more concerned with balance sheet shuffling for survival." (3) Meanwhile, there are new signs that the job market is softening. Initial claims were up 13,000 to a total of 242,000. That's up from about 200,000 in January. Continuing claims were down, however, by 38,000 to a total of 1.81 million. (4) The April jobs report also shows that the job market is still going strong. It shows that companies increased the number of available positions by 253,000. Wall Street economists had anticipated the addition of just 180,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate also declined from 3.5% to 3.4%. (5) Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates dipped a little this last week. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down four basic points to 6.39%. The 15-year was up five points to 5.76%. (6) In other news making headlines… The Average Monthly Mortgage Payment The average monthly mortgage payment is now $2,317. Lending Tree's latest study shows that the average U.S. home buyer needs a mortgage of $333,342 with the highest amounts needed in the District of Columbia, Washington State, and California. (7) High priced states skew the averages however, so you need to look at the individual states to see how affordable they are. The three states with the lowest average mortgage amounts are West Virginia, Kentucky, and Michigan. In West Virginia, the average is just $1,700. Homeownership Not a Priority Among Most Renters A majority of renters don't see homeownership in their future. Online brokerage Home Bay conducted a survey that shows about two-thirds say they have lost hope in owning a home, although half of the respondents said that homeownership is "very important." Given their current situation, they'd prefer to spend their money on other things. The top three priorities are paying down debt, having a comfortable retirement, and owning a car. (8) Among the renters who want to own a home, a third are willing to pay a high price to do that including many who said they'd skip meals or sell their plasma. Two thirds also said they would take on a second job. Zillow, Redfin Launch ChatGPT Plugin Searching for a home could get a little easier with the help of a chatbot. Both Zillow and Redfin announced that users will be able to get a ChatGPT plugin that will allow them to describe homes and have the chatbot show relevant listings. The OpenAI website says that only a small number of users have access to the plugins right now, but you can add your name to a waitlist. (9) That's it for this week's News Brief. Check the show notes for links at newsforinvestors.com. You can also join RealWealth while you are at our website by hitting the "join for free" button. Membership gives you full access to our Investor Portal where you can see sample properties and connect with our network of real estate professionals, including our RealWealthinvestment counselors. And please remember to subscribe to our podcast! Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/03/fed-rate-decision-may-2023-.html 2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/4-things-we-learned-from-powells-press-conference-after-latest-fed-rate-hike-4863f055?mod=federal-reserve 3 - https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/yun-latest-fed-hike-unnecessary-and-harmful 4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-climb-13-000-to-242-000-and-show-hints-of-labor-market-softening-41d5e71b?mod=economy-politics 5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/construction-spending-up-0-3-in-march-546e0768?mod=economy-politics 6 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms 7 - https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/the-average-monthly-mortgage-payment-is-above-2300 8 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/04/renters-say-homeownership-is-hopeless-how-theyre-spending-instead.html?__source=realestate%7cnews%7c&par=realestate 9 - https://therealdeal.com/national/2023/05/04/redfin-zillow-adopt-chatgpt-plugins/

Pet Households Outnumber Families with Kids May 11, 2023

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When it comes to renting a home, landlords may see many more applicants with pets than they do parents with children. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the number of households with pets is almost double the number of households with children. That's a trend that impacts the rental market as well as the home buying market, as pet owners look for housing and neighborhoods that will accommodate the needs of their children, and their pets. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Please remember to subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review. Census data shows that the number of families with kids under the age of 18 has been declining over the past 20 years. Last year, in 2022, just 40% of households had children. That's down from 48% in 2002. A RisMedia article suggests two reasons for the decline: One, because birth rates have been shrinking over the last few decades, except for an increase in just the last year; And two, because baby boomers still comprise a large share of U.S. households, but at this point, with no kids. Pet Households Rise and Kid Households Decline As households with children have dwindled, those with pets have been rising. The American Pet Products Association says that, back in 1988, 56% of households had a pet which was most likely a dog or a cat. Today, about 70% of U.S. households have pets. Although the number has been steadily rising over the years, many people adopted pets during the pandemic and continue to lavish time and money on their pet companions. The BLS American Time Survey shows that the share of Americans who spend daily time with their pets grew from about 13% in 2003 to almost 20% in 2021, with women spending more time on pets than the men. Americans are also spending more money on their pets. The American Pet Products Association says the expenditure has grown from about $53 billion in 2012 to $123 billion in 2021. The Importance of Pets in Real Estate Decisions With that kind of time and money being lavished on our pet companions, it's not that surprising to think that pet owners will place great importance on the well-being of their pets in their home buying process or their rental decisions. According to the National Association of Realtors, almost one-third of unmarried homebuyers will consider their pet when they decide on a neighborhood. About 14% of married couples will factor that in. When it comes to gender, 25% of single women want a pet-friendly neighborhood compared to 16% of men. Pet friendly neighborhoods are ones with a high walkability score, access to parks and recreation areas, and homes with bigger yards. Renting to Tenants with Pets As a landlord, it has become more important to accommodate pets, but you should also have clear, comprehensive rules written into the lease agreement. The California Apartment Association offers a Pet Addendum that can help landlords and property managers protect their property and the safety and cleanliness of their rental community in general. Among the key components of the addendum is a requirement that renters get a landlord's written consent before they bring a pet onto the premises. The addendum also requires detailed information about the pet including type, breed, name, sex, age, size, and a description or photograph. This can help with record-keeping. If there are local pet ordinances, the tenant should agree to comply with those. There should also be guidelines for the disposal of any pet waste on the rental property and the maintenance of litter boxes. We'll have a link to the addendum, and the data on households with children and pets in the show notes at newsforinvestors.com. I also ask that listeners become RealWealth members to find out more about the creation of rental property income. It's free to join at our website. And please remember to subscribe to this podcast! Thanks for listening! Kathy Fettke Links: 1 - https://www.rismedia.com/2023/05/08/stunning-stat-more-pets-than-kids-home/ 2 - https://caanet.org/allowing-a-pet-be-sure-to-use-caas-pet-addendum/

Investor Home Sale Losses Triple from Last Year, but There Is a Catch! May 06, 2023

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March wasn't a great month for investor home sales. A new Redfin report shows that one in every seven homes sold by investors was sold at a loss. That's 14% of investor sales or about triple the number from a year earlier, and the highest level of investor home sale losses since 2016. But there is a catch! These sales were mostly for investors who bought more recently and sold after a short length of time, such as flippers. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Please remember to subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review. The housing market has slowed dramatically as home prices and mortgage rates make it tough to buy, and in some areas and for some people, tough to invest. It's important to remember that the report is based on national statistics, and that six in seven of those real estate investors made money on sales, although their gains may have been smaller. Typical Gains for Investor Home Sales Redfin says the typical investor who sold a home in March, sold it for about 46% more than they paid. That's down from a little over 55% in March of last year. Profit will likely be less than that, because of other costs, like renovations. Redfin Senior Economist Sheharyar Bokhari says: "You might wonder why investors don't just wait to sell until the housing market bounces back. Many long-term investors who rent their properties are doing that, but many flippers–especially those who bought recently–can't afford to." She says: "Holding onto homes that aren't producing income can be expensive because the owner is on the hook for property taxes, operating costs, and in many cases, mortgage payments." Phoenix Redfin agent Van Welborn says: "Home flippers aren't reaping the gains they used to." Flippers More Likely to Report Losses If you narrow the overall results of the Redfin study down to "just" flippers, Redfin says that one in five sold at a loss in March. Redfin defines a flipper as someone who bought and sold a home within a nine-month time frame. Holding long-term will likely produce much better results, although the median U.S. asking rent has been slowing. It was down .4% year-over-year in March but that is also the first time it's gone down in three years. Redfin agents say that Airbnb operators are also hurting in some markets, and have had to sell. Flippers Lose More in Pandemic Boomtowns Places where investors are more likely to sell at a loss are the pandemic boomtowns like Phoenix and Las Vegas. In Phoenix, 31% sold at a loss in March. In Las Vegas, that percentage was more like 28%. The report says that many of the sellers are mom-and-pop investors who are worried about where the market is headed, possibly remembering what happened in 2008. But today's housing market is nothing like it was in 2008, and real estate is still a solid investment over the long term. Many institutional investors see it that way. Instead of selling, many are holding on to their properties and waiting for buying opportunities. My Formula for Real Estate Wealth Redfin says that 10% of the homes on the market right now are for sale by investors. That's higher than at any time before or during the pandemic but down from a peak of 12.4% last year. My formula for real estate wealth is to buy wisely and hold on to your properties long-term, especially now when there's such strong demand for single-family rentals. At RealWealth we encourage the use of a platform called DealCheck for a thorough analysis of a deal before you close on it. DealCheck is a powerful property analysis platform that's easy to use, and provides instant details on a property's cash flow, cap rate, ROI, profit from a sale, acquisition cost, and other helpful information. If you're a RealWealth member, just sign into the portal and look for DealCheck under the Resources tab. If you aren't a member, it's free and easy to sign up. And, please remember to subscribe to this podcast! Thanks for listening! Kathy Links: 1 - https://www.redfin.com/news/homeowner-tenure-2022/

The Real Estate News Brief: Mixed PCE Inflation Report, Q1 Economic Growth, Argentina's Sky-High Inflation May 02, 2023

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In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending April 29th, 2023... you'll get mixed news on inflation, results for the first quarter GDP, and a rate hike in South America that you never want to see here! Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News Let's begin our economic review with the latest inflation report. The Personal Consumption Expenditure Index for March was released on Friday and showed a tiny .1% increase in overall inflation. That brought the yearly rate down from 5.1% in February to 4.2% in March – the lowest it's been since May of last year. But unfortunately, the news wasn't as good for the PCE's core rate. When you omit prices for food and gas, the core rate rose .3%, and brought the annual rate down from 4.7% to 4.6%. As MarketWatch reports, the core rate hasn't changed much for the last five months. (1) The PCE is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and will be an important factor in determining whether to hike interest rates again this week. It's generally believed that the central bank will hike rates another quarter point, but it's a delicate situation because the economy is teetering on the brink of a recession. As Bill Adams of Comerica told MarketWatch: "The Fed is stuck between raising interest rates and likely pushing the economy into a recession… or pausing and risking that inflation accelerates in a few quarters if the economy regains momentum and sticky prices stay high." First quarter GDP is out. It shows the economy grew at a rate of 1.1%. That's down from a GDP of 2.6% in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending has been strong, but was offset by spending cautiousness among businesses. Home construction and sales are also a drag on the GDP, thanks to higher mortgage rates. But MarketWatch says the biggest impact on the GDP was a lack of inventory growth. Business inventories were down $138 Billion. If that had not been the case, and inventory growth remained flat, the GDP would have reportedly been much higher, at 3.4%. (2) Jobless claims reversed course this last week and fell an unexpected 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 230,000. Economists had expected them to rise slightly. The report shows that the job market is still strong, which feeds into the Fed's concern about inflation. Continuing claims were also down 3,000 to 1.86 million. (3) Housing demand and a lack of existing home inventory drove new home sales higher in March, despite high mortgage rates. The Commerce Department says they were up 9.6% for the month, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 683,000. The surge was mostly driven by new home sales in the Northeast. The median price for a home was $449,800. Chief Economist, Lisa Sturtevant, at Bright MLS, says that about one in three homes for sale are new builds. Historically, it's more like one in 10. (4) Although the sale of existing homes has been rising over the last several months, they fell in March. The National Association of Realtors says contract signings were down 5.2% for the month which is more than economists had predicted. NAR says about a third of the listings are seeing multiple bids, and 28% are selling for more than the asking price. (5) The February report on home prices by Case Schiller shows the national index was up .2% for the month, and 2% for the year. That's the smallest increase in home price growth since 2012. (6) Mortgage Rates NAR says that realtors are predicting that mortgage rates will hit 6% this year, and 5.6% next year. But they aren't there yet. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was up 4 basis points this last week, to 6.43%. The 15-year was down 5 points to 5.71%. (7) In other news making headlines… Study: Home Demand Rises After Periods of High Inflation The desire to own a home will likely increase thanks to inflation. The results of a new study by UC San Diego show that the inflation we're seeing today will have a lasting impact on the housing market, with many people buying homes to protect themselves from future price growth. The study claims to be the first of its kind to show that personal experience with inflation will lead to home ownership. (8) One of the study co-authors says: "We think one reason people choose to buy instead of rent is because they are worried about future inflation, which may drive up both rent and house prices." She says: "Our paper suggests that cohorts living through the current inflationary period will have a higher demand for housing for years to come." Huge Rate Hike in Argentina as Inflation Soars As the American consumer worries about inflation and another rate hike when the Fed meets this week, consider this: The Argentina central bank just hiked short-term rates 300 basis points to an annual rate of 81%! That's in response to surging inflation that hit 104% in March. Argentine officials had hoped to cut rates this year after a difficult tightening cycle in 2022, but inflation has returned with a vengeance. Argentina has one of the world's highest inflation rates right now. JP Morgan is predicting that Argentina's inflation will hit 130% by the end of the year. (9) That's it for today. Check the show notes for links at newsforinvestors.com. You can also join RealWealth to learn more about real estate investing by hitting the "Join for Free" button. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-inflation-slows-again-pce-shows-2bc60ce7?mod=economy-politics 2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/first-quarter-gdp-climbs-at-1-1-pace-a8fac9e6?mod=economy-politics 3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-fall-sharply-in-latest-week-395a0675?mod=economic-report 4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-new-home-sales-surge-9-6-in-march-as-home-buyers-turn-to-builders-c384df9d?mod=economic-report 5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/pending-home-sales-fall-for-the-first-time-since-november-d56869cd?mod=economic-report 6 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-home-prices-rise-for-first-time-in-8-months-case-shiller-says-62cb2876?mod=mw_latestnews 7 - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-central-bank-hikes-interest-153626211.html 8 - https://today.ucsd.edu/story/living-through-high-inflation-increases-home-ownership 9 - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/argentina-central-bank-hikes-interest-153626211.html

Will Good Credit Make Your Home Loan More Expensive? Apr 28, 2023

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Fannie and Freddie are changing some rules that could make home loans more expensive for people with high credit scores, and less expensive for those at the low-end of that spectrum. Critics say the rules amount to an unfair subsidy for high-risk borrowers, but the GSE's say it's a misconception about what they are changing. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Please remember to subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review. You may have seen the headlines already. One says: "A Bigger Subsidy for Risky Mortgages." Another says: "Upside Down Mortgage Policy." Another says this new policy will "screw Up the Homebuying Market." The headlines refer to a new rules from the Federal Housing Finance Agency regarding loan-level price adjustments or LLPAs for conventional loans. They officially kick in on May 1st, although some lenders have already been incorporating them into their fee structures. What's an LLPA? If you have a mortgage that's backed by Fannie or Freddie, you have paid or are paying this fee. LLPAS are fees that the government-sponsored enterprises charge when they buy loans from lenders. The fee is passed on to borrowers as a percentage of the loan and the amount is based on the borrower's risk factors such as credit score and down payment. People with higher risk factors pay higher LLPAs, and they can be paid up front or with higher monthly mortgage payments. Business Insider offers a few examples of how the new pricing structure will impact borrowers. 1 - Someone who might see an increase could have a credit score of 700 with a 20% down payment for a $300,000 loan. They would have previously paid 1.25% of that loan amount or $3,750. With the new fee structure, they'd pay 1.375% or $4,125, which is an increase of $375. (1) 2 - Someone who might see a decrease could have a credit score of 780 but a down payment of just 3%. Previously, they would have paid .75% on a $300,000 loan or $2,250. With the new rules, they'd pay .135% or $375. That's a $1,875 reduction. NAR, NAHB Opposed to the New Rule The National Association of Realtors is among those criticizing the rule change. It is encouraging the FHFA to rescind the new rule especially given the affordability issues facing home buyers. It suggests instead that: "The GSEs could simply reduce the fees for (higher risk) borrowers and maintain the others at the same cost—especially given the sharp decline in affordability over the last year." (2) National Association of Home Builders CEO, Jerry Howard, told Newsweek: "In the short term, this may increase homeownership among the targeted group, but I'm afraid it could decrease homeownership among the middle class. I'm not sure that we're not robbing Peter to pay Paul here." (3) FHFA Defends New Rules FHFA Director Sandra Thompson issued a press release this week to "set the record straight." She says: "Much of what has been reported advances a fundamental misunderstanding about the fees charged by the GSEs and why they were updated." She says the pricing structure hadn't been updated for many years, and the new pricing structure is the result of a 2021 review. (4) The goal: "To maintain support for purchase borrowers limited by income or wealth, ensure a level playing field for large and small lenders, foster capital accumulation at the Enterprises, and achieve commercially viable returns on capital over time." The overhaul has been done in steps over the last 18 months, beginning with fee increases for loans on second homes, high balance loans, and cash-out refi's. Then some fees were eliminated for first-time homebuyers with lower incomes but the means to meet their loan obligations. She says in her statement that this latest step is a recalibration of upfront tees that will make the housing finance system more resilient. Among the misconceptions, she says: 1 - Stronger credit borrowers are not subsidizing weak credit borrowers. She claims that fees generally increase for lower credit scores, despite the down payment. 2 - She says the new fee structure does not raise the fees for all low-risk borrowers. She says many borrowers with high credit scores or high down payments will see no change in their fees or even a decrease. 3 - She says the old framework was not perfectly calibrated to risk. She says it was essentially outdated, and is now better aligned for the performance of a mortgage relative to its risk. 4 - The new rules do not encourage low-income borrowers to pay a lower down payment to benefit from lower fees because they will also have to pay mortgage insurance premiums. 5 - The elimination of upfront fees is not for people with lower credit scores but for borrowers with lower incomes, and she says they are essentially supported by the loan fees for second homes and cash-out refi's (and not by good credit, high down payment borrowers). 6 - The changes are not intended to stimulate mortgage demand, but rather to advance the soundness and safety of the GSE's. The old and new fee structures are listed on the Fannie Mae website. You'll find links to those tables in the show notes if you'd like to compare. (5) (6) Impact on Real Estate Investors So how does this impact real estate investors? Shawn Huss of Warsaw Federal told RealWealth: "For investment lending, it has helped out in some situations with better pricing when you have a greater down payment or a two to four unit. For a multi-unit, Fannie used to charge 1.0 points in additional pricing. Now if an investor's credit score is 780 or higher, it is only .375%. Another example is pricing used to be 2.125 points in pricing for 70% loan-to-value. With the new pricing, at 70%, the pricing is better by .50 points which helps with lower rates." The new pricing structure only impacts conventional loans – not jumbo loans, FHA mortgages, or other non-conforming loans. You'll find links to the stories I mentioned at newsforinvestors.com including the charts from Fannie Mae where you can compare the two pricing structures. And please, remember to hit the Join for Free button at RealWealth and subscribe to our podcast. Thanks for listening, Kathy Links: 1 - https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/biden-fhfa-new-mortgage-fee-structure-2023-4 2 - https://www.nar.realtor/washington-report/nar-advocates-for-fhfa-to-maintain-affordability-for-all-homebuyers 3 - https://www.newsweek.com/biden-raises-costs-homebuyers-good-credit-help-risky-borrowers-1795700 4 - https://www.fhfa.gov/Media/PublicAffairs/Pages/Statement-from-FHFA-Director-Sandra-Thompson-on-Mortgage-Pricing.aspx 5 - https://singlefamily.fanniemae.com/media/33201/display 6 - https://singlefamily.fanniemae.com/media/9391/display

The Real Estate News Brief: Recession Timeline, Construction Material Costs, Homeowner Wealth Report Apr 26, 2023

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In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending April 22nd, 2023… we have two new forecasts on whether we'll see a recession this year, some good news about the cost of construction materials, and a report that shows how much wealthier you are if you own instead of rent. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with a look at economic news from the past week. There are a few new reports predicting that we'll have a "mild" recession in the second half of the year. The Conference Board's leading economic indicator index, or LEI, was down for a 12th month in a row in March. It fell 1.2%, which is the biggest decline in the last three years, according to MarketWatch. The index is a compilation of 10 indicators. One Conference Board manager says: "Economic weakness will intensify and spread more widely throughout the U.S. economy over the coming months, leading to a recession starting in mid-2023." (1) Fannie Mae economists are also predicting a recession later this year. The GSE's Economic and Strategic Research Group says the economy is "running out of steam." Although the economy got off to a strong start this year, the ESR group expects to see an economic contraction during the second half of 2023. Fannie Mae's chief economist Doug Duncan, says: "The economic slowdown has resumed – whether the end result is a modest recession or simply a soft landing remains unanswered." He attributes much of his optimism to the strength of the housing market, saying: "The greater-than-expected resilience of the housing sector to the affordability pressures of higher home prices and mortgage rates is central to our expectation that the recession will be modest." (2) The Labor Department reported another weekly increase in jobless applications, which are now at their highest level since the end of 2021. Initial claims were up another 5,000 to a total of 245,000. That's still an historically low number. Continuing claims also jumped a bit. They were up 61,000 to a total of 1.87 million. (3) Housing starts were down .8% in March, to a rate of 1.52 million. The drop is mostly due to a slowdown in condo construction which fell 6.7%. Starts for single-family homes offset that a bit with an increase of 2.7%. Permits for single-family homes were also higher, by 4.1% while permits for multi-family buildings were down almost 25%. The pullback in apartment construction follows a red-hot building streak over the last several months. (4) Builders are feeling more confident about the market as demand grows for new homes. The National Association of Home Builders says its monthly confidence index was up one point to 45 in April. It's the fourth month that the index has gone higher, and it's now the strongest it's been since September of last year. Demand is strong because the inventory for existing homes is so low. (5) Meantime, existing home sales were down 2.4% in March, to an annual rate of 4.44 million. Compared with March of last year, they are down 22%. Prices are also falling which means that current homeowners would lose some of their equity if they sold now. The National Association of Realtors says that prices were down 1% in March, which is the biggest monthly drop in a decade. That's a national number. A recent report from Black Knight says that prices are falling in the West but rising in the East. Prices are falling the most in cities that experienced a pandemic housing market boom. (6) (7) Mortgage Rates Mortgage rates started rising again this last week. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was up 12 basis points to 3.69%. The 15-year was up 22 points to 5.76%. (8) In other news making headlines… Prices Dipping for Construction Materials Prices for construction materials are finally coming back to earth. According to an analysis by the Associated Builders and Contractors group, they are lower today than they were a year ago. It's the first year-over-year decrease we've seen in more than 18 months. Construction Dive says that building costs are still almost 40% higher than they were right before the pandemic struck. (9) Costs for some individual construction materials remain high, however. Bisnow reports that concrete is up 14.5% from a year ago. Construction machinery and equipment is also about 12% higher. Prices are also fluctuating a lot from month to month. Chief Economist Ken Simonson for the Association General Contractors of America told Construction Dive that: "Contractors remain wary about committing to projects" because of the price volatility. Some contractors are also putting the brakes on hiring. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports a 50% drop in construction job openings at the start of this year. Homeowner vs. Renter Wealth Report Many homeowners are becoming much wealthier than renters, thanks to an increase in their home equity. A study by the National Association of Realtors shows that over the last decade, homeowners became more than 40 times wealthier than the average renter because of that equity. (10) The average gain since 2012 is about $99,000 for low income homeowners, about $122,000 for middle-income homeowners, and about $150,000 for upper-income homeowners. That's it for our latest economic and housing market updates. Please check the show notes for links at newsforinvestors.com. And please remember to click on the Join for Free button at our website for information about real estate investing, and don't forget to subscribe to this podcast, if you haven't already! Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-u-s-economy-is-headed-toward-recession-leading-index-keeps-signaling-afe5f314?mod=economy-politics 2 - https://www.scotsmanguide.com/news/fannies-latest-forecast-maintains-modest-recession-still-in-play/ 3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-climb-to-245-000-and-signal-rising-layoffs-5409f9d7?mod=economy-politics 4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-housing-starts-decline-in-march-as-apartment-construction-cools-717828a7?mod=economic-report 5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/builder-confidence-rises-for-fourth-consecutive-month-amid-low-number-of-resale-listings-d377885e?mod=economic-report 6 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-existing-home-prices-fall-nearly-1-in-march-biggest-drop-in-a-decade-910e9be5?mod=economic-report 7 - https://www.cbsnews.com/news/home-price-regional-breakdown-mortgage-housing/ 8 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms 9 - https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/construction-development/construction-material-costs-lower-than-a-year-ago-still-39-higher-than-pre-pandemic-118528 10 - https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/study-homeowner-wealth-is-40-times-higher-than-renters

Are You On Fannie Mae's Secret Loan Blacklist? Apr 24, 2023

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Fannie and Freddie have a growing blacklist for certain properties that they won't lend to, but it's not public and it could surprise you when you're trying to close on a deal. The Los Angeles Daily News first reported on this, saying the government-sponsored enterprises are placing condos, associations, and co-ops on the list for a variety of reasons, including deferred maintenance. (1) Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Please remember to subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review. The president of Philadelphia-based condo and co-op lending service provider CondoTek told the Daily News that the blacklist has now grown to more than 1,400 properties. Orest Tomaselli says just 16 months ago, there were only 900 properties on the list. New Tighter Standards After Condo Collapse Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac tightened their standards after the collapse of Champlain Towers South in Surfside, Florida. The catastrophic failure of the 12-story condo building resulted in the deaths of 98 people and $1B in property losses. HOAs started seeing a new questionnaire months later at the beginning of last year. According to the Daily News, Fannie and Freddie are using data from this questionnaire to determine whether a property has deferred maintenance, structural issues, or a lack of funds or insurance to cover needed upgrades or repairs. Concerns That Questionnaire Creates Liability The questionnaire has been controversial. Other than questions regarding maintenance and upkeep, they also include questions that could presume future liability for any deficiencies – questions like: "Is the HOA or Cooperative Corporation aware of any deficiencies related to the safety, soundness, structural integrity, or habitability of the project's buildings?" The Orange County Register reported on a survey by the Community Associations Institute that shows 89% of the participants felt they might be held liable in the future because of questions they didn't know how to answer. Almost as many also feared liability exposure because they refused to answer those questions. (2) News reports say that some condo associations and property management companies feel the questionnaires are "draconian" and have chosen instead to boycott Fannie/Freddie loans. Questionnaire Alternative Not Well Received The mortgage giants are offering an alternative although that hasn't gotten a great reception either. Instead of the questionnaire, the underwriter can provide reviews of board minutes from HOA meetings, engineering inspections, and local government inspections. Lenders weren't thrilled with that option because it could expose the lender to future liability issues. Mortgage broker Jeff Lazerson says in the Orange County Register article, that 50% of the loans that his shop runs through Fannie and Freddie require a limited review and a shorter list of HOA questions. A Freddie Mac spokesperson says that: "Freddie Mac's requirements are designed to help ensure residential buildings with aging infrastructure are safe for their residents and the condos and co-ops needing critical repairs have a plan to do so." Safety is of utmost importance, but with affordable housing in short supply, the questionnaire and the blacklist add two more obstacles for homebuyers looking for a lower price tag. Secret Blacklist for Lenders & Servicers As for the blacklist, it's reportedly available to lenders and servicers, but not the property owners or the public in general which includes potential buyers. That means buyers counting on a loan from Fannie or Freddie might not find out until the last minute. Tomaselli says: "It's a crapshoot. The only way for you to find out if a project is on that list is if you apply for a mortgage and the lender runs that project to see if it's unavailable. And only then, typically, is the buyer informed." Buyers must then turn to riskier, more expensive mortgages to complete their transaction. You'll find links to articles about the blacklist and the HOA questionnaire at newsforinvestors.com. As always, I ask that you join RealWealth for free to learn more about real estate, and subscribe to this podcast! We'd also appreciate a review on whatever podcast platform you are using. Thank you! And thanks for listening, Kathy Fettke Links: 1 - https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/capital-markets/secret-blacklist-of-condos-co-ops-means-some-buyers-ineligible-for-fannie-freddie-financing-118544 2 - https://www.ocregister.com/2022/02/24/condo-questionnaire-causing-some-boards-to-boycott-fannie-freddie-financing/

Will Climate Change Impact Your Property Values? Apr 19, 2023

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Is climate change creating a real estate bubble we shouldn't ignore? And who's going to get hurt if that bubble bursts? Yale's Climate Connections newsletter just reported on a study that claims there's a massive bubble forming because property values don't include climate risks like flooding and wildfires. The 2023 Nature Climate Change study also suggests six ways to reduce this risk and potentially keep this bubble from bursting. (1) Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. Please remember to subscribe to this podcast and leave us a review. Although climate change skeptics may feel we are experiencing normal weather patterns, many people are concerned that severe weather events are increasing in number and intensity. We've been seeing increased storm-related flooding in some areas and more drought-related wildfires in others. Some inland areas are also dealing with water scarcity and extreme heat while coastal areas are faced with the threat of rising sea levels. The "Brittleness Bubble" The Yale newsletter cited climate futurist Alex Steffen for his definition of the so-called "Brittleness Bubble." Steffen says: "As awareness of risk grows, the financial value of risky places drops. Where meeting that risk is more expensive than decision-makers think a place is worth, it simply won't be defended. It will be abandoned." He says: "That will then create more problems. Bonds for big projects, loans and mortgages, business investment, insurance, talented workers – all will grow more scarce. Then, values will crash." Overvaluation of Homes The Nature Climate Change study pegged the overvaluation of U.S. homes in flood zones at around $200 billion, but a study done last year by consulting firm Milliman had a much higher number. In the Milliman study, researchers calculated the overvaluation at more like $500 billion. These figures apply to flood risk, and don't account for the impact of other weather-related risks like wildfires. California is suffering the impact of highly destructive wildfires that have been increasing in number and intensity. And that's pushing up insurance rates, making it unaffordable for many people to rebuild or buy homes in high-risk areas. The Southwest has also been dealing with a long-time drought although recent winter rains have helped to replenish reservoirs. But water scarcity and extreme heat are a growing problem in many areas. Reducing the Risk The report goes on to list six ways to help prevent this bubble from bursting, which I will briefly share with you. 1 - The first is to require sellers to fully disclose flood risks. The study says that, in general, properties that are highly overvalued are in coastal counties which often don't require flood-risk disclosures. Some property listing websites will show you this info however, such as Redfin and Realtor.com. Floodfactor.com also provides property-specific risk ratings. 2 - The second suggestion is to raise awareness about climate change which might lead to policy changes about development in risky areas. This will likely happen as more people suffer the impact and media attention grows. 3 - Third on the list of suggestions is to charge market-based insurance rates instead of subsidized rates provided by the National Flood Insurance Program. The NFIP has issued new risk ratings called Risk Rating 2.0. That has brought insurance costs closer to what they need to be, but it's a slow-going process because there are yearly rate-hike caps. 4 - The fourth suggestion is to reduce federal subsidies for properties in risky areas. These subsidies come in the form of supplemental disaster relief with no requirements for long-term flood-risk strategies. The study authors say it's a complex issue that will take a lot of effort to tackle because there isn't much political support or funding to get this done. 5 - Fifth on the list of actions to address the so-called climate change housing bubble is a revamping of FEMA and the creation of a National Disaster Safety Board. The report says that FEMA is "underfunded, understaffed, and has minimal authority to do what it needs to do." A National Disaster Safety Board could help implement policy changes. 6 - Last but not least, the report suggests that we should work toward a retreat policy that would help people move from areas that have suffered multiple climate-related disasters. The strategy would be to provide affordable housing for these people which may sound like a "big ask" at a time when the nation is suffering from a huge lack of affordable housing. When Will the Bubble Burst? So when will all this become critical? The Yale article cites a NOAA prediction, that the average sea level rise by 2050 will be 10 to 14 inches for the East Coast, 14 to 18 inches for the Gulf Coast, and four to eight inches for the West Coast. It says a "rapid rise" will happen after that and claims that we'll see a rise of four to seven feet by 2100 as compared to the year 2000. The study can't predict when we might see a sudden disruption because so much depends on politics, the economy, and basic human behavior. It says we might see a period of increased risk in the mid-2030s because of a "wobble in the moon's orbit." It's something that happens every 18.6 years and usually causes unusually high tides along the Southern and Western coastlines. If you own property in a high risk area, this topic is something that may command more of your attention. And if you're looking to buy a new property, be sure to check on the climate risks and factor that into your decision. As I mentioned, Redfin and Realtor.com both provide environmental risk factors on their property listing pages. You can also find more detailed information at floodfactor.com. If you want to read more about this study, you'll find a link to the Yale article at newsforinvestors.com. You can also join RealWealth for free if you'd like more information on how to navigate the housing market right now and find rental property that makes sense for your portfolio. And please remember to subscribe to the podcast and leave us a review! Thank you! And thanks for listening, Kathy Links: 1 - https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2023/04/bubble-trouble-climate-change-is-creating-a-huge-and-growing-u-s-real-estate-bubble/

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