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Earnings Wind Down, Stretched Positioning, Valuations With Less Room to Run Nov 11, 2024

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Three big things you need to know: First, earnings season is winding down with a disappointing feel to us on the stats, though it’s admittedly not driving price action right now. Second, in our transcript reading, a mixed macro and consumer remained in focus, as companies began to highlight key policy issues they are watching post election. Third, positioning in US equity futures, for both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000, looks stretched. Valuations have some room to run, but not a ton.

What We've Been Talking About After The Election Nov 07, 2024

Show notes

Today in the podcast, we run through three things in focus in our conversations following the US election. First, we review the tailwinds for US equities that we’ve been highlighting from a Trump win, along with some of the headwinds to watch out for. Second, we highlight why we think Small Caps have at least a little bit more room to run and what we’re watching to help us know when it’s time to fade the trade. Third, we review our thoughts on the old economy, value-oriented sectors that did well on Wednesday.

Higher Level Thoughts on the Outcome of the US Election Nov 05, 2024

Show notes

We’ve recorded this on the day of the US Presidential Election, and that’s what we're focusing on today.

There are 7 big things you need to know: They focus on the set-up, the historical playbook, bottom-up policy implications per our analyst survey, our thoughts on positioning trades, one tailwind that will manifest regardless of what happens, tail risks, and our rundown of what we’ll be watching on election night and possibly the days beyond.

A Mildly Disappointing Reporting Season So Far, Election Thoughts Oct 28, 2024

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Three big things you need to know: First, the early S&P 500 stats are now pointing to a mildly disappointing 3Q24 reporting season so far. Second, a mixed backdrop, the need to wait a bit longer for interest rate relief, and the need to get through the election were key themes in last week’s earnings calls. Third, the US election has been in focus in our recent meetings with US-based long-only investors, who we encourage to be ready for all outcomes.

Good Start for the Rotation Trade, Clogs in the Pipes, Election Muscle Memory Oct 21, 2024

Show notes

Three big things you need to know today: First, the early earnings stats are mixed for the broader market but promising for the rotation trade. Second, company commentary continues to suggest the plumbing of the economy is in good shape, with a few clogs. Third, our examination of index, sector and industry performance and trends in polling and betting market averages suggest to us that several traditional Trump trades (specifically, Small Caps, Energy, Financials) have remained intact.

3Q24 Earnings Preview Oct 14, 2024

Show notes

The big things you need to know: First, we’ve done some housekeeping on our S&P 500 EPS estimates for 2024 and 2025, resulting in very modest changes. Second, we highlight the two things we’re paying the most attention to in reporting season – specifically, qualitative color from companies on hot macro topics and whether mega cap Growth can maintain its earnings dominance. Third, we highlight what else jumps out from our high frequency indicators on sentiment and the US election.

September Analyst Survey Results, Changes To Our US Sector Views Oct 08, 2024

Show notes

Two big things you need to know: First, globally our analysts are generally constructive on performance, valuations and interest rates, with Materials most in favor and Consumer Staples most out of favor across all of the questions we asked. Second, within the US we are reiterating our overweights on Financials and Materials, upgrading Health Care to overweight, and downgrading Utilities to market weight. Energy remains a tactical overweight but goes on downgrade watch.

Economic Tailwinds Return, Boosting Small Caps Oct 07, 2024

Show notes

The big thing you need to know: Small Caps got a boost from the better-than-expected jobs report on Friday, reinforcing our belief that a return of economic tailwinds is the catalyst they need to take valuation and positioning to the next level.

Spotlight on the US Elections Oct 02, 2024

Show notes

Three big things you need to know: First, our survey results, which are bottom-up in nature and driven by domestic policy views, imply that the event is relevant to US equity markets, but perhaps less so than some market participants may believe. For our US analysts, a Republican sweep was seen as the most bullish outcome, while a Democratic sweep was seen as the most bearish outcome, but the key thing to note is that the tilts were extremely mild. Second, some of the traditional Trump trades continue to emerge in policy assessments and sector views. Among our US analysts, Energy and Financials had some of the most bullish tilts in a Republican sweep scenario, and some of the most bearish tilts in a Democratic sweep scenario. Third, in terms of our own broader market call, we’ve viewed the elections as creating near-term uncertainty in the US equity market and the potential for some short-term choppiness, but the survey results add to our growing belief that the thing that may matter most for US equities (for 2024) is getting past the event so companies and investors know what they are dealing with.

Thoughts On The S&P 500 Following The Fed, Plus A Few Other Updates Sep 23, 2024

Show notes

Two big things you need to know: First, valuations continue to look full for 2024 on the S&P 500, but our model argues for upside in 2025. Second, there’s a lot of little stuff to talk about right now. We run a few of the key updates on our high frequency indicators including those on the rotation trade, small caps, and the election.

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