Probable Causation

Episode 109: Anjali Adukia on restorative justice practices in schools Oct 22, 2024

Anjali Adukia talks about how using restorative justice practices in schools affects student behavior.

“From Retributive to Restorative: An Alternative Approach to Justice in Schools” by Anjali Adukia, Benjamin Feigenberg, and Fatemeh Momeni.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Breaking Schools’ Rules: A Statewide Study of How School Discipline Relates to Students’ Success and Juvenile Justice Involvement" by Tony Fabelo, Michael D. Thompson, Martha Plotkin, Dottie Carmichael, Miner P. Marchbanks, and Eric A. Booth.
“Racial Disparities in School Suspension and Subsequent Outcomes" by Tracey L. Shollenberger.
“School Suspensions and Adverse Experiences in Adulthood" by Kerrin C. Wolf and Aaron Kupchik.
“The School to Prison Pipeline: Long-Run Impacts of School Suspensions on Adult Crime" by Andrew Bacher-Hicks, Stephen B. Billings, and David J. Deming.
“Rethinking Universal Suspension for Severe Student Behavior" by Rebecca Hinze-Pifer and Lauren Sartain.
“Discipline Reform, School Culture, and Student Achievement" by Ashley C. Craig and David Martin.
“Suspending Suspensions: The Education Production Consequences of School Suspension Policies" by Nolan Pope and George Zuo.
“Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make-it-Right Program" by Yotam Shem-Tov, Steven Raphael, and Alissa Skog.
"Can Restorative Practices Improve School Climate and Curb Suspensions? An Evaluation of the Impact of Restorative Practices in a Mid-Sized Urban School District" by Catherine Augustine, John Engberg, Geoffrey Grimm, Emma Lee, Elaine Wang, Karen Christianson, and Andrea Joseph.
“Evaluation of a Whole-School Change Intervention: Findings from a Two-Year Cluster-Randomized Trial of the Restorative Practices Intervention" by Joie Acosta, Matthew Chinman, Patricia Ebener, Patrick S. Malone, Andrea Phillips, and Asa Wilks.

Episode 13: Ariel White on short jail spells and subsequent voting behavior (REBROADCAST) Sep 24, 2024

Ariel White talks about the effect of short jail spells on subsequent voting behavior. This episode was first posted in October 2019.

"Misdemeanor Disenfranchisement? The Demobilizing Effects of Brief Jail Spells on Potential Voters" by Ariel White.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

"Turnout and Party Registration among Criminal Offenders in the 2008 General Election" by Traci Burch
"Did Disfranchisement Laws Help Elect President Bush? New Evidence on the Turnout Rates and Candidate Preferences of Florida’s Ex-Felons" by Traci Burch
"Political Consequences of the Carceral State" by Vesla M. Weaver and Amy E. Lerman
"Arresting Citizenship: The Democratic Consequences of American Crime Control" by Amy E. Lerman and Vesla M. Weaver
"Does Incarceration Reduce Voting? Evidence about the Political Consequences of Spending Time in Prison" by Alan S. Gerber, Gregory A. Huber, Marc Meredith, Daniel R. Biggers, and David J. Hendry
"The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith
"Locking Up the Vote? Evidence from Vermont on Voting from Prison" by Ariel White and Avery Nguyen

Episode 7: Jeff Weaver on the effects of parental and sibling incarceration (REBROADCAST) Aug 27, 2024

Jeff Weaver talks about the long-term effects of parental and sibling incarceration. This episode was first posted in July 2019.

"The Effect of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Disrupted Childhoods: Children of Women in Prison” by Jane A. Siegal.
“Parental Arrest and Incarceration: How Does it Affect Children?” By Stephen B. Billings.
“Incarceration Spillovers in Criminal and Family Networks” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.
“Doing Time Together: Love and Family in the Shadow of Prison” by Megan Comfort.
"Intergenerational Effects of Incarceration" by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.
"The Intergenerational Effects of Parental Incarceration" by Will Dobbie, Hans Grönqvist, Susan Niknami, Mårten Palme, and Mikael Priks.
"Parental Incarceration and Children's Educational Attainment" by Carolina Arteaga.
“Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.
"Does Incarceration Increase Crime?" by Evan K. Rose and Yotam Shem-Tov.
"The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith.

Episode 108: Emma Rackstraw on "Copaganda" Jul 30, 2024

Emma Rackstraw talks about how reality TV affects policing outcomes.

“When Reality TV Creates Reality: How ‘Copaganda’ Affects Police, Communities, and Viewers” by Emma Rackstraw.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

Arrest Decisions: What Works for the Officer? by Edith Linn
"‘No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection’: Media and Sentencing" by Arnaud Philippe and Aurélie Ouss.
“The Birth of a Nation: Media and Racial Hate" by Desmond Ang.
"The Fox News Effect: Media Bias and Voting" by Stefano DellaVigna and Ethan Kaplan.
"How Cable News Reshaped Local Government" by Elliott Ash and Sergio Galletta.
"Soap Operas and Fertility: Evidence from Brazil" by Eliana La Ferrara, Alberto Chong, and Suzanne Duryea.
“The Impact of Fear on Police Behavior and Public Safety" by Sungwoo Cho, Felipe Gonçalves, and Emily Weisburst.
Probable Causation Episode 65: Felipe Gonçalves
“Police Force Size and Civilian Race" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Emily K. Weisburst, and Morgan C. Williams, Jr.
Probable Causation Episode 55: Morgan Williams, Jr.
“Misdemeanor Prosecution" by Amanda Agan, Jennifer L. Doleac, and Anna Harvey.
Probable Causation Episode 51: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey
"The Effects of Police Violence on Inner-City Students" by Desmond Ang.
Probable Causation Episode 50: Desmond Ang
"Civic Responses to Police Violence" by Desmond Ang and Jonathan Tebes.
"Fear and the Safety Net: Evidence from Secure Communities" by Marcella Alsan and Crystal S. Yang.
Probable Causation Episode 95: Marcella Alsan
"Community Engagement with Law Enforcement after High-Profile Acts of Police Violence" by Desmond Ang, Panka Bencsik, Jesse Bruhn, and Ellora Derenoncourt.
"Community Engagement and Public Safety: Evidence from Crime Enforcement Targeting Immigrants" by Felipe M. Gonçalves, Elisa Jácome, and Emily K. Weisburst.
"The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges" by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang.
"Copaganda: The Media Origins of the Attitudes Toward Policing in America" by Eunji Kim, Tyler Reno, and Esteban Fernandez. [Working paper available from the authors.]
"The Usual Suspects: Offender Origin, Media Reporting and Natives’ Attitudes Towards Immigration" by Sekou Keita, Thomas Renault, Jérôme Valette.

Episode 107: David Macdonald on truth-in-sentencing policies Jul 02, 2024

David Macdonald talks about the effects of truth-in-sentencing policies.

“Truth in Sentencing, Incentives and Recidivism” by David Macdonald.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Police, prosecutors, criminals, and determinate sentencing: The truth about truth-in-sentencing laws” by Joanna M. Shepherd.
“Responses to more severe punishment in the courtroom: Evidence from truth-in-sentencing laws" by Libor Dusek and Fusako Tsuchimoto.
"Truthiness in punishment: The far reach of truth-in-sentencing laws in state courts" by Emily G. Owens.
"How should inmates be released from prison? An assessment of parole versus fixed-sentence regimes" by Ilyana Kuziemko.
"Can Parole Reduce Both Time Served and Crime?" by William Arbour & Steeve Marchand.
“Parole Supervision on the Margins” by Michael LaForest-Tucker.
“The effect of parole supervision on recidivism” by Evarn J. Ooi and Joanna Wang.
"Prison Rehabilitation Programs and Recidivism: Evidence from Variations in Availability" by William Arbour, Guy Lacroix and Steeve Marchand
"Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour.
Probable Causation Episode 102: William Arbour

Episode 106: Ryan Sakoda on post-release supervision Jun 04, 2024

Ryan Sakoda talks about the effects of post-release supervision.

“Abolish or Reform? An Analysis of Post-Release Supervision” by Ryan Sakoda.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Intensive Probation and Parole" by Joan Petersilia and Susan Turner.
“The Effects of Low-Intensity Supervision for Lower-Risk Probationers: Updated Results from a Randomized Controlled Trial” by Geoffrey C. Barnes, Jordan M. Hyatt, Lindsay Ahlman, and Daniel Kent.
“An Experimental Evaluation of the Impact of Intensive Supervision on the Recidivism of High-Risk Probationers” by Jordan M. Hyatt and Geoffrey C. Barnes.
“Managing Drug Involved Probationers with Swift and Certain Sanctions: Evaluating Hawaii’s HOPE” by Angela Hawken and Mark Kleiman.
“Washington Intensive Supervision Program: Evaluation Report” by Angela Hawken and Mark Kleiman.
“Alternative Models of Instant Drug Testing: Evidence from an Experimental Trial” by Eric Grommon, Stephen M. Cox, William S. Davidson II, and Timothy S. Bynum.
“HOPE II: A Follow-up to Hawaii’s HOPE Evaluation” by Angela Hawken, Jonathan Kulick, Kelly Smith, Jie Mei, Yiwen Zhang, Sara Jarman, Travis Yu, Chris Carson, and Tifanie Vial.
“Outcome Findings from the HOPE Demonstration Field Experiment: Is Swift, Certain, and Fair an Effective Supervision Strategy?” by Pamela K. Lattimore, Doris Layton MacKenzie, Gary Zajac, Debbie Dawes, Elaine Arsenault, and Stephen Tueller.
“Managing Pretrial Misconduct: An Experimental Evaluation of HOPE Pretrial” by Janet Davidson, George King, Jens Ludwig, and Steven Raphael.
“Who Gets a Second Chance? Effectiveness and Equity in Supervision of Criminal Offenders” by Evan K. Rose.
Probable Causation Episode 98: Evan Rose
"Release from Prison, Parole, and Mortality" by Ashna Arora

Episode 105: Amanda Agan on how sealing criminal records affects employment May 07, 2024

Amanda Agan talks about how sealing criminal records affects employment.

“Can you Erase the Mark of a Criminal Record? Labor Market Impacts of Criminal Record Remediation” by Amanda Agan, Andrew Garin, Dmitri Koustas, Alex Mas, and Crystal Yang.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

Probable Causation Episode 9: Michael Mueller-Smith
“Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial Discrimination: A Field Experiment" by Amanda Agan and Sonja Starr.
Probable Causation Episode 8: Amanda Agan
"The mark of a criminal record" by Devah Pager.
"The edge of stigma: An experimental audit of the effects of low-level criminal records on employment" by Christopher Uggen, Mike Vuolo, Sarah Lageson, Ebony Ruhland, and Hilary K. Whitham.
"Does banning the box help ex-offenders get jobs? Evaluating the effects of a prominent example" by Evan K. Rose.
"The criminal and labor market impacts of incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith.
"Expungement of criminal convictions: An empirical study" by J.J. Prescott and Sonja Starr.
"Unmarked: Criminal Record Clearing and Employment Outcomes" by Jeffrey Selbin, Justin McCrary, and Joshua Epstein.
"America's paper prisons: The second chance gap" by Colleen Chien.
"Misdemeanor Prosecution" by Amanda Agan, Jennifer L. Doleac, and Anna Harvey.
Probable Causation Episode 51: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey
"Labor Market Impacts of Reducing Felony Convictions" by Amanda Y. Agan, Andrew Garin, Dmitri K. Koustas, Alexandre Mas, and Crystal Yang.
"Is it time to let go of the past? Effect of clean slate regulation on employment and earnings" by Kabir Dasgupta, Keshar Ghimire, and Alexander Plum.
"Increasing the Demand for Workers with a Criminal Record" by Zoë Cullen, Will Dobbie, and Mitchell Hoffman.
Probable Causation Episode 71: Zoë Cullen

Episode 104: Oeindrila Dube on cognitive behavioral training for police Apr 09, 2024

Oeindrila Dube talks about a cognitive behavioral training program for police.

“A Cognitive View of Policing” by Oeindrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur, and Anuj Shah.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

"Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.

"Can You Build a Better Cop?" by Emily Owens, David Weisburd, Karen L. Amendola, and Geoffrey P. Alpert.

"The Impacts of Implicit Bias Awareness Training in the NYPD" by Robert E. Worden, Sarah J. McLean, Robin S. Engel, Hannah Cochran, Nicholas Corsaro, Danielle Reynolds, Cynthia J. Najdowski, and Gabrielle T. Isaza.

"The impact of implicit bias-oriented diversity training on police officers’ beliefs, motivations, and actions" by Calvin K. Lai and Jaclyn A. Lisnek.

"Does De-escalation Training Work?" by Robin S. Engel, Hannah D. McManus, and Tamara D. Herold.

"Assessing the Impact of De-escalation Training on Police Behavior: Reducing Police Use of Force in the Louisville, KY Metro Police Department" by Robin S. Engel, Nicholas Corsaro, Gabrielle T. Isaza, and Hannah D. McManus.

“Reducing crime and violence: Experimental evidence from cognitive behavioral therapy in Liberia” by Christopher Blattman, Julian C. Jamison, and Margaret Sheridan.

"Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour.

Probable Causation Episode 102: William Arbour

"Peer Effects in Police Use of Force" by Justin E. Holz, Roman G. Rivera, and Bocar A. Ba.

"The Effect of Field Training Officers on Police Use of Force" by Chandon Adger, Matthew Ross, and CarlyWill Sloan.

Probable Causation Episode 90: Matthew Ross

Episode 35: Erich Muehlegger on air pollution and crime (REBROADCAST) Mar 12, 2024

Erich Muehlegger talks about the effect of air pollution on crime. This episode was first posted in September 2020.

"Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Microgeographic Evidence from Chicago" by Evan Herrnstadt, Anthony Heyes, Erich Muehlegger, and Soodeh Saberian.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Crime Is in the Air: The Contemporaneous Relationship between Air Pollution and Crime” by Malvina Bondy, Sefi Roth, and Lutz Sager.
“The effect of pollution on crime: Evidence from data on particulate matter and ozone” by Jesse Burkhardt, Jude Bayham, Ander Wilson, Ellison Carter, Jesse D. Berman, Katelyn O’Dell, Bonne Ford, Emily V. Fischer, and Jeffrey R. Pierce.
“The Mortality and Medical Costs of Air Pollution: Evidence from Changes in Wind Direction” by Tatyana Deryugina, Garth Heutel, Nolan H. Miller, David Molitor, and Julian Reif.
“Airports, Air Pollution, and Contemporaneous Health” by Wolfram Schlenker and W. Reed Walker.
“Traffic Congestion and Infant Health: Evidence from E-ZPass” by Janet Currie and Reed Walker.
“As the Wind Blows: The Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Air Pollution on Mortality” by Michael L. Anderson.
“Air pollution and children's respiratory health: A cohort analysis” by Timothy K.M. Beatty and Jay P. Shimshack.
“Air Quality and Error Quantity: Pollution and Performance in a High-Skilled, Quality-Focused Occupation” by James Archsmith, Anthony Heyes, and Soodeh Saberian.
“The Long-Run Economic Consequences of High-Stakes Examinations: Evidence from Transitory Variation in Pollution” by Avraham Ebenstein, Victor Lavy, and Sefi Roth.

Episode 21: Aurelie Ouss on reducing failures-to-appear in court (REBROADCAST) Feb 27, 2024

Aurelie Ouss talks about using insights from behavioral economics to reduce failures-to-appear in court. This episode was first posted in January 2020.

"Nudging Crime Policy: Reducing Failures to Appear for Court" by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. (Available from the authors upon request.)
Related policy paper: "Using Behavioral Science to Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes: Preventing Failures to Appear in Court" by Brice Cook, Binta Zahra Diop, Alissa Fishbane, Jonathan Hayes, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj Shah.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

"Bail, Jail, and Pretrial Misconduct: The Influence of Prosecutors" by Aurelie Ouss and Megan T. Stevenson.
“Distortion of Justice: How the Inability to Pay Bail Affects Case Outcomes” by Megan T. Stevenson.
“The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges” by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang.
“The Unintended Impact of Pretrial Detention on Case Outcomes: Evidence from New York City Arraignments” by Emily Leslie and Nolan G. Pope.
“The Downstream Consequences of Misdemeanor Pretrial Detention” by Paul Heaton, Sandra Mayson, and Megan Stevenson.
Episode 4 of Probable Causation: Megan Stevenson
"Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.
“Behavioral Biases and Legal Compliance: A Field Experiment” by Natalia Emanuel and Helen Ho.

Episode 103: Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague on Medicaid access and recidivism Feb 13, 2024

Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague talk about the effects of Medicaid enrollment on recidivism.

"In-Kind Welfare Benefits and Reincarceration Risk: Evidence from Medicaid" by Marguerite Burns and Laura Dague.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

"Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility" by Elisa Jacome.
Probable Causation Episode 60: Elisa Jacome
“The consequences of Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act for police arrests” by Jessica T. Simes and Jaquelyn L. Jahn.
“Public health insurance and impacts on crime incidences and mental health" by Kathryn L. Wagner.
"Access to health Care and Criminal Behavior: Evidence form the ACA Medicaid Expansions" by Jacob Vogler.
"The Effect of Health Insurance on Crime: Evidence from the Affordable Care Act Medicaid Expansion" by Qiwei He and Scott Bardowski.
"The Effect of Medicaid Expansion on Crime Reduction: Evidence from HIFA-Waiver Expansions" by Hefei Wen, Jason M. Hockenberry, and Janet R. Cummings.
"Does Public Assistance Reduce Recidivism?" by Crystal S. Yang.
“SNAP benefits and crime: Evidence from changing disbursement schedules” by Jillian B. Carr and Analisa Packham.
"Does emergency financial assistance reduce crime?" by Caroline Palmer, David C. Phillips, and James X. Sullivan.
“Does welfare prevent crime? The criminal justice outcomes of youth removed from SSI" by Manasi Deshpande and Michael Mueller-Smith.
Probable Causation Episode 72: Manasi Desphande
"Snapping Back: Food Stamp Bans and Criminal Recidivism" by Cody Tuttle.

Episode 102: William Arbour on prison-based behavioral programs Jan 30, 2024

William Arbour talks about how prison-based behavioral programs in Canada affect recidivism.

"Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.
“Reducing crime and violence: Experimental evidence from cognitive behavioral therapy in Liberia” by Christopher Blattman, Julian C. Jamison, and Margaret Sheridan.
Probable Causation Episode 23: Lelys Dinarte.
"One Size Doesn’t Fit All – The Heterogeneous Effects of Prison Programs" by Michael LaForest-Tucker. [Working paper available from the author.]
"Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make-it-Right Program" by Yotam Shem-Tov, Steven Raphael, and Alissa Skog.

Episode 31: Randi Hjalmarsson on jury decision-making (REBROADCAST) Jan 16, 2024

Randi Hjalmarsson talks about how punishment severity affects juries' decisions to convict. This episode was first posted in June 2020.

"How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments" by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Making the Crime Fit the Penalty: The Role of Prosecutorial Discretion under Mandatory Minimum Sentencing” by David Bjerk.
“The Impact of Jury Race in Criminal Trials” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“The Role of Age in Jury Selection and Trial Outcomes” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“A Jury of Her Peers: The Impact of the First Female Jurors on Criminal Verdicts” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“Politics in the Courtroom: Political Ideology and Jury Decision Making” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection: Media and Sentencing” by Aurelie Ouss and Arnaud Philippe.
“Path Dependency in Jury Decision Making” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“The Persistence of the Criminal Justice Gender Gap: Evidence from 200 Years of Judicial Decisions” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“The Impact of the First Professional Police Forces on Crime” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.

Episode 25: Sara Heller on summer youth employment programs (REBROADCAST) Jan 02, 2024

Sara Heller talks about summer youth employment programs.

"Summer Jobs Reduce Violence Among Disadvantaged Youth" by Sara B. Heller.
"Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs" by Jonathan M.V. Davis and Sara B. Heller

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

"What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations" by David Card, Jochen Kluve, and Andrea Weber.
"Active Labor Market Policies" by Bruno Crépon and Gerard J. van den Berg.
"Employment and Training Programs" by Robert J. LaLonde.
"The Promise of Public Sector-Sponsored Training Programs" by Robert J. LaLonde.
"The Youth Entitlement Demonstration: Subsidized Employment with a Schooling Requirement" by George Farkas, D. Alton Smith, and Ernst W. Stromsdorfer.
"A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of In-School and Summer Neighborhood Youth Corps: A Nationwide Evaluation" by Gerald G. Somers and Ernst W. Stromsdorfer.
"Summer Training and Education Program (STEP): Report on Long-Term Impacts" by Cynthia L. Sipe and Jean Baldwin Grossman.
"An Anatomy of a Demonstration: STEP from Pilot through Replication and Postprogram Impacts" by Frances Vilella-Velez and Gary Walker.
"The Summer Employment Experiences and the Personal/Social Behaviors of Youth Violence Prevention Employment Program Participants and Those of a Comparison Group" by Andrew Sum, Mykhaylo Trubskyy, and Walter McHugh.
"Enriching Summer Work: An Evaluation of the Summer Career Exploration Program" by Wendy S. McClanahan, Cynthia L. Sipe, and Thomas J. Smith.
"What Is a Summer Job Worth? The Impact of Summer Youth Employment on Academic Outcomes" by Jacob Leos-Urbel.
"Making Summer Matter: The Impact of Youth Employment on Academic Performance" by Amy Ellen Schwartz, Jacob Leos-Urbel, and Matt Wiswall.
"The Effects of Youth Employment: Evidence from New York City Lotteries" by Alexander Gelber, Adam Isen, and Judd B. Kessler.
"An Introduction to the World of Work: A Study of the Implementation and Impacts of New York City’s Summer Youth Employment Program" by Erin Jacobs Valentine, Chloe Anderson Golub, Farhana Hossain, and Rebecca Unterman.
"How Do Summer Youth Employment Programs Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes, and for Whom?" by Alicia Sasser Modestino.
"Reducing inequality summer by summer: Lessons from an evaluation of the Boston Summer Youth Employment Program" by Alicia Sasser Modestino and Richard J. Paulsen.
"School’s Out: How Summer Youth Employment Programs Impact Academic Outcomes" by Alicia Sasser Modestino and Richard Paulsen.

Episode 101: Xinming Du on social media content and offline violence Dec 19, 2023

Xinming Du talks about how aggressive posts on social media affect offline violence.

“Symptom or Culprit? Social Media, Air Pollution, and Violence” by Xinming Du.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Experimental Evidence of Massive-Scale Emotional Contagion Through Social Networks” by Adam Kramer, Jamie Guillory, and Jeffrey Hancock.
“Social Media and Protest Participation: Evidence from Russia” by Ruben Enikolopov, Alexey Makarin, and Maria Petrova.
“Fanning the Flames of Hate: Social Media and Hate Crime” by Karsten Muller and Carlo Schwarz.
Episode 35 of Probable Causation: Erich Muehlegger
“Toxic Content and User Engagement on Social Media: Evidence from a Field Experiment” by George Beknazar-Yuzbashev, Rafael Jiménez Durán, Jesse McCrosky, and Mateusz Stalinski.
“Social Media and Mental Health” by Luca Braghieri, Ro’ee Levy, and Alexey Makarin.

Episode 100: Marina Gorzig and Deborah Rho on renter protection policies Dec 05, 2023

Marina Gorzig and Deborah Rho talk about the effects of renter protection policies (including limits on landlords' use of criminal records) in Minneapolis.

“The Impact of Renter Protection Policies on Housing Discrimination in Minneapolis” by Marina Gorzig and Deborah Rho.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“The Unintended Consequences of ‘Ban the Box’: Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes when Criminal Histories are Hidden” by Jennifer Doleac and Benjamin Hansen.
“Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial Discrimination: A Field Experiment” by Amanda Agan and Sonja Starr.
Episode 8 of Probable Causation: Amanda Agan.
“Discrimination and the Effects of Drug Testing on Black Employment” by Abigail Wozniak.
“Deleting a Signal: Evidence from Pre-Employment Credit Checks” by Alexander W. Bartik and Scott T. Nelson.
“Criminal Records and Housing: An Experimental Study” by Peter Leasure and Tara Martin.

Episode 99: Ben Feigenberg on class disparities in traffic stops Nov 21, 2023

Ben Feigenberg talks about socioeconomic disparities in who police stop for traffic offenses.

“Class Disparities and Discrimination in Traffic Stops and Searches” by Ben Feigenberg and Conrad Miller.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Would Eliminating Racial Disparities in Motor Vehicle Searches Have Efficiency Costs?” by Ben Feigenberg and Conrad Miller.
“Smartphone Data Reveal Neighborhood-Level Racial Disparities in Police Presence” by M. Keith Chen, Katherine L. Christensen, Elicia John, Emily Owens, and Yilin Zhou.
“Multitasking, Expectations, and Police Officer Behavior” by James Reeves. [Draft available from author upon request].
“My Taxes are Too Darn High: Why Do Households Protest Their Taxes?” by Brad C. Nathan, Ricardo Perez-Truglia, and Alejandro Zentner.

Episode 98: Evan Rose on community supervision Nov 07, 2023

Evan Rose talks about community supervision, and the costs and benefits of incarceration as a consequence for breaking probation rules

“Who Gets a Second Chance? Effectiveness and Equity in Supervision of Criminal Offenders” by Evan K. Rose

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Five Year Outcomes in a Randomized Trial of a Community-Based Multi-Agency Intensive Supervision Juvenile Probation Program” by Karen Hennigan, Kathy Kolnick, Tian Sivan Tian, Cheryl Maxson, and John Poplawski.
“The Effects of Low-Intensity Supervision for Lower-Risk Probationers: Updated Results from a Randomized Controlled Trial” by Geoffrey C. Barnes, Jordan M. Hyatt, Lindsay Ahlman, and Daniel Kent.
“An Evaluation of Day Reporting Centers of Parolees: Outcomes of a Randomized Trial” by Douglas J. Boyle, Laura M Ragusa-Salerno, Jennifer L. Lanterman, and Andrea Fleisch Marcus.
“An Experimental Evaluation of the Impact of Intensive Supervision on the Recidivism of High-Risk Probationers” by Jordan M. Hyatt and Geoffrey C. Barnes.
“Managing Drug Involved Probationers with Swift and Certain Sanctions: Evaluating Hawaii’s HOPE” by Angela Hawken and Mark Kleiman.
“Washington Intensive Supervision Program: Evaluation Report” by Angela Hawken and Mark Kleiman.
“Alternative Models of Instant Drug Testing: Evidence from an Experimental Trial” by Eric Grommon, Stephen M. Cox, William S. Davidson II, and Timothy S. Bynum.
“HOPE II: A Follow-up to Hawaii’s HOPE Evaluation” by Angela Hawken, Jonathan Kulick, Kelly Smith, Jie Mei, Yiwen Zhang, Sara Jarman, Travis Yu, Chris Carson, and Tifanie Vial.
“Outcome Findings from the HOPE Demonstration Field Experiment: Is Swift, Certain, and Fair an Effective Supervision Strategy?” by Pamela K. Lattimore, Doris Layton MacKenzie, Gary Zajac, Debbie Dawes, Elaine Arsenault, and Stephen Tueller.
“Managing Pretrial Misconduct: An Experimental Evaluation of HOPE Pretrial” by Janet Davidson, George King, Jens Ludwig, and Steven Raphael.
“Efficient Sentencing? The Effect of Post-Release Supervision on Low-Level Offenders” by Ryan Sakoda. [Unpublished manuscript]

Episode 67: David Phillips on mental health care for people released from jail (REBROADCAST) Oct 24, 2023

David Phillips talks about connecting people released from jail with mental health care. This episode was first posted in February 2022.

“Reducing Re-arrests through Light Touch Mental Health Outreach” by Mary Kate Batistich, William N. Evans and David C. Phillips

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Local Access to Mental Healthcare and Crime” by Monica Deza, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and Keisha Solomon.
“Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome.
Episode 60 of Probable Causation: Elisa Jácome.
“Substance Abuse Treatment Centers and Local Crime” by Samuel R. Bondurant, Jason M. Lindo, and Isaac D. Swensen.
“Behavioral Nudges Reduce Failure to Appear for Court” by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah.
Episode 21 of Probable Causation: Aurelie Ouss.
“The Impact of Youth Medicaid Eligibility on Adult Incarceration” by Samuel Arenberg, Seth Neller, and Sam Stripling.
“Stress on the Sidewalk: The Mental Health Costs of Close Proximity Crime” by Panka Bencsik.
“Policing Substance Use: Chicago's Treatment Program for Narcotics Arrests” by Ashna Arora and Panka Bencsik.
“Crisis Averted? The Effects of Crisis Intervention Units on Arrests and Use of Force” by Maya Mikdash and Chelsea Temple. (Draft available from the authors).

Episode 20: J.J. Prescott on sex offender registries (REBROADCAST) Oct 10, 2023

J.J. Prescott talks about sex offender registries. This episode was first posted in January 2020.

"Do Sex Offender Registration and Notification Laws Affect Criminal Behavior?" by J.J. Prescott and Jonah E. Rockoff.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

Legislation Targeting Sex Offenders: Are Recent Policies Effective in Reducing Rape? by Alissa R. Ackerman, Meghan Sacks and David F. Greenberg.
The Iowa Sex Offender Registry and Recidivism by Geneva Adkins, David Huff, and Paul Stageberg.
Sex Offender Registries: Fear without Function? by Amanda Y. Agan.
Sex Offender Law and the Geography of Victimization by J. J. Prescott and Amanda Y. Agan.
Time-Series Analyses of the Impact of Sex Offender Registration and Notification Law Implementation and Subsequent Modifications on Rates of Sexual Offenses by Jeff A. Bouffard and LaQuana N. Askew.
The Effect of Sex Offender Registries on Recidivism: Evidence from a Natural Experiment by Jillian B. Carr.
The Impact of Megan’s Law on Sex Offender Recidivism: The Minnesota Experience by

Grant Duwe and William Donnay.
The Public Safety Impact of Community Notification Laws: Rearrest of Convicted Sex Offenders by Naomi J. Freeman.
Juvenile Registration and Notification Policy Effects: A Multistate Evaluation Project by Elizabeth J. Letourneau, Jeffery Sandler, Donna Vandiver, Ryan Shields, and Reshmi Nair.
Failure to Register as a Sex Offender: Is it Associated with Recidivism? Jill Levenson, Elizabeth Letourneau, Kevin Armstrong, and Kristen Marie Zgoba.
Failure-to-Register Laws and Public Safety: An Examination of Risk Factors and Sex Offense Recidivism by Jill Levenson, Jeffrey Sandler, and Naomi Freeman.
Community Protection Policies and Repeat Sexual Offenses in Florida by Jill S. Levenson and Kristen M. Zgoba.
Utilizing Criminal History Information to Explore the Effect of Community Notification on Sex Offender Recidivism by Sean Maddan, J. Mitchell Miller, Jeffery T. Walker, and Ineke Haen Marshall.
A Time-Series Analysis of the Effectiveness of Sex Offender Notification Laws in the USA by Kimberly Maurelli and George Ronan.
Does a Watched Pot Boil? A Time-Series Analysis of New York State's Sex Offender Registration and Notification Law by Jeffrey C. Sandler, Naomi J. Freeman, and Kelly M. Socia.
Juvenile Sexual Crime Reporting Rates are not Influenced by Juvenile Sex Offender Registration Policies by Jeffrey C. Sandler, Elizabeth J. Letourneau, Donna Vandiver, Ryan T. Shields, and Mark Chaffin.
Community Notification: A Study of Offender Characteristics and Recidivism by Donna D. Schram and Cheryl Darling Milloy.
“Brothers Under the Bridge”: Factors Influencing the Transience of Registered Sex Offenders in Florida by Kelly M. Socia, Jill S. Levenson, Alissa R. Ackerman, and Andrew J. Harris.
Assessing the Impact of Sex Offender Registration and Community Notification on Sex-Offending Trajectories by Richard Tewksbury and Wesley G. Jennings.
A Longitudinal Examination of Sex Offender Recidivism Prior to and Following the Implementation of SORN by Richard Tewksbury, Wesley G. Jennings, and Kristen M. Zgoba.
The Influence of Sex Offender Registration and Notification Laws in the United States: A Time-Series Analysis by Bob E. Vasquez, Sean Maddan, and Jeffery T. Walker.
Sex Offender Community Notification: Its Role in Recidivism and Offender Reintegration by Richard G. Zevitz.
Failure to Register as a Predictor of Sex Offense Recidivism: The Big Bad Wolf or a Red Herring? by Jill S. Levenson and Kristen M. Zgoba
An Analysis of the Effectiveness of Community Notification and Registration: Do the Best Intentions Predict the Best Practices? by Kristen Zgoba , Bonita M. Veysey & Melissa Dalessandro.

Episode 36: Ellora Derenoncourt on the Great Migration and economic mobility (REBROADCAST) Sep 26, 2023

Ellora Derenoncourt talks about how the Great Migration affected economic mobility. This episode was first posted in September 2020.

"Can you move to opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration" by Ellora Derenoncourt.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

"Race and Economic Opportunity in the United States: An Intergenerational Perspective" by Raj Chetty, Nathaniel Hendren, Maggie R. Jones, and Sonya R. Porter.
"The Impacts of Neighborhoods on Intergenerational Mobility I: Childhood Exposure Effects" by Raj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren.
"The Impacts of Neighborhoods on Intergenerational Mobility II: County-Level Estimates" by Raj Chetty and Nathaniel Hendren.
"Competition in the Promised Land: Black Migration and Racial Wage Convergence in the North, 1940–1970" by Leah Platt Boustan.
"Was Postwar Suburbanization 'White Flight'? Evidence from the Black Migration" by Leah Platt Boustan.
"Competition in the Promised Land: Black Migrants in Northern Cities and Labor Markets" by Leah Platt Boustan.
"Migration Networks and Location Decisions: Evidence from US Mass Migration" by Bryan A. Stuart and Evan J. Taylor.
"The Warmth of Other Suns: The Epic Story of America’s Great Migration" by Isabel Wilkerson.
"Creating Moves to Opportunity: Experimental Evidence on Barriers to Neighborhood Choice" by Peter Bergman, Raj Chetty, Stefanie DeLuca, Nathaniel Hendren, Lawrence F. Katz, and Christopher Palmer.
"Children of the Dream: Why School Integration Works" by Rucker C. Johnson.
"The Long-run Economic Effects of School Desegregation" by Cody Tuttle.

Episode 60: Elisa Jácome on access to mental health care (REBROADCAST) Sep 12, 2023

Elisa Jácome talks about how access to mental health care affects criminal behavior. This episode was first posted in November 2021.

“Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Homeward: Life in the Year After Prison” by Bruce Western.
“Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.
”Youth depression and future criminal behavior” by D. Mark Anderson, Resul Cesur, and Erdal Tekin.
“Substance Abuse Treatment Centers and Local Crime” by Samuel R. Bondurant, Jason M. Lindo, and Isaac D. Swensen.
”The FDA and ABCs Unintended Consequences of Antidepressant Warnings on Human Capital” by Susan Busch, Ezra Golberstein, and Ellen Meara.
”Consequences of Eliminating Federal Disability Benefits for Substance Abusers” by Pinka Chatterji and EllenMeara.
”Long-Term Consequences of Childhood ADHD on Criminal Activities” by Jason Fletcher and Barbara Wolfe.
“A Cure for Crime? Psycho-Pharmaceuticals and Crime Trends” by Dave E. Marcotte,Sara Markowitz.
”Psychiatric Disorders in Youth in Juvenile Detention” by Linda A. Teplin, Karen M. Abram, Gary M. McClelland, Mina K. Dulcan, and Amy A. Mericle.
”Access to Health Care and Criminal Behavior: Short-Run Evidence from the ACA Medicaid Expansions” by Jacob Vogler.
”The effect of medicaid expansion on crime reduction: Evidence from hifa-waiver expansions” by Hefei Wen, Jason M. Hockenberry, Janet R. Cummings.
”The Effect of Public Health Insurance on Criminal Recidivism” by Erkmen Giray Aslim, Murat C. Mungan, Carlos Navarro, and Han Yu.
”The effect of health insurance on crime: Evidence from the affordable care act medicaid expansion” by Qiwei He and Scott Barkowski.
“Local access to mental healthcare and crime” by Monica Deza, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and Keisha T. Solomon.
“The Impact of Youth Medicaid Eligibility on Adult Incarceration” by Samuel Arenberg, Seth Neller, and Sam Stripling.
“The Health Effects of Prison” by Randi Hjalmarsson and Matthew Lindquist.
Probable Causation Episode 41: Matthew Lindquist.

Episode 47: Greg Midgette on the 24/7 Sobriety program (REBROADCAST) Aug 15, 2023

Greg Midgette talks about the effects of 24/7 Sobriety — a program for defendants with alcohol-related offenses, based on swift-certain-fair principles. This episode was first posted in March 2021.

“Criminal Deterrence: Evidence from an Individual‐Level Analysis of 24/7 Sobriety” by Beau Kilmer and Greg Midgette.

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment” by Mark A.R. Kleiman.
"The Efficacy of the Rio Hondo DUI Court: A 2-Year Field Experiment" by John M. MacDonald, Andrew R. Morral, Barbara Raymond, and Christine Eibner.
”Punishment and deterrence: Evidence from Drunk Driving” by Benjamin Hansen.
“Efficacy of Frequent Monitoring with Swift, Certain, and Modest Sanctions for Violations: Insights from South Dakota’s 24/7 Sobriety Project” by Beau Kilmer, Nancy Nicosia, Paul Heaton, and Greg Midgette.
"Can a criminal justice alcohol abstention programme with swift, certain, and modest sanctions (24/7 Sobriety) reduce population mortality? A retrospective observational study" by Nancy Nicosia, Beau Kilmer, and Paul Heaton.
“Paying the Tab: The Costs and Benefits of Alcohol Control” by Philip J. Cook.
"Managing Drug Involved Probationers with Swift and Certain Sanctions: Evaluating Hawaii's HOPE." by Angela Hawken and Mark A. R. Kleiman.
"Washington Intensive Supervision Program: Evaluation Report" by Angela Hawken and Mark A. R. Kleiman.
"HOPE II: A Follow-up to Hawaii`s HOPE Evaluation" by Angela Hawken, Jonathan Kulick, Kelly Smith, Jie Mei, Yiwen Zhang, Sara Jarman, Travis Yu, Chris Carson, and Tifanie Vial.
"Outcome Findings from the HOPE Demonstration Field Experiment: Is Swift, Certain, and Fair an Effective Supervision Strategy?" by Pamela K. Lattimore, Doris Layton MacKenzie, Gary Zajac, Debbie Dawes, Elaine Arsenault, and Stephen Tueller.
“Managing Pretrial Misconduct: An Experimental Evaluation of HOPE Pretrial" by Janet Davidson, George King, Jens Ludwig, and Steven Raphael.
”A Natural Experiment to Test the Effect of Sanction Certainty and Celerity on Substance-Impaired Driving: North Dakota's 24/7 Sobriety Program” by Greg Midgette, Beau Kilmer, Nancy Nicosia, and Paul Heaton.

Episode 43: Elizabeth Linos on police recruiting (REBROADCAST) Aug 01, 2023

Elizabeth Linos talks about how to recruit more and different people to become police officers. This episode was first posted in January 2021.

"More Than Public Service: A Field Experiment on Job Advertisements and Diversity in the Police" by Elizabeth Linos.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

"Behavioral Insights for Building the Police Force of Tomorrow" by Joanna Weill, Elizabeth Linos, Siddharth Mandava, Cecily Wallman-Stokes, and Jacob Appel.
"Thick Red Tape and the Thin Blue Line: A Field Study on Reducing Administrative Burden in Police Recruitment" by Elizabeth Linos and Nefara Riesch.
"A head for hiring: The behavioural science of recruitment and selection" by Elizabeth Linos and Joanne Reinhard.

Episode 8: Amanda Agan on Ban the Box policies (REBROADCAST) Jul 18, 2023

Amanda Agan talks about the effects of Ban the Box policies. This episode was first posted in July 2019.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

"Discrimination and the Effects of Drug Testing on Black Employment" by Abigail Wozniak.
"Deleting a Signal: Evidence from Pre-Employment Credit Checks" by Alexander W. Bartik and Scott T. Nelson
"Ban the Box, Criminal Records, and Racial Discrimination: A Field Experiment" by Amanda Agan and Sonja Starr.
"The Unintended Consequences of Ban the Box: Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes When Criminal Histories are Hidden" by Jennifer L. Doleac and Benjamin Hansen.
"The Effect of Changing Employers' Access to Criminal Histories on Ex-Offenders' Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from the 2010–2012 Massachusetts CORI Reform" by Osborne Jackson and Bo Zhao

"Does Banning the Box Help Ex-Offenders Get Jobs? Evaluating the Effects of a Prominent Example" by Evan K. Rose
"Ban the Box, Convictions, and Public Sector Employment" by Terry-Ann Craigie
"'Ban the Box' Measures Help High-Crime Neighborhoods" by Daniel Shoag and Stan Veuger
"Do Ban the Box Laws Increase Crime?" by Joseph J. Sabia, Taylor Mackay, Thanh Tam Nguyen, and Dhaval M. Dave
"Job Market Signaling through Occupational Licensing" by Peter Q. Blair and Bobby W. Chung
"Statistical Discrimination and the Choice of Licensing: Evidence from Ban-the-Box Laws" by Riccardo Marchingiglio
"The Effectiveness of Certificates of Relief as Collateral Consequence Relief Mechanisms: An Experimental Study" by Peter Leasure and Tia Stevens Andersen
"Criminal Records and Housing: An Experimental Study" by Peter Leasure and Tara Martin.
"Encouraging Desistance from Crime" by Jennifer L. Doleac

Episode 97: Allison Stashko on prosecutor elections and police accountability Jul 04, 2023

Allison Stashko talks about prosecutor elections and police accountability.

“Prosecutor Elections and Police Killings” by Allison Stashko and Haritz Garro.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Collective Bargaining Rights and Police Misconduct: Evidence from Florida” by Dhammika Dharmapala, Richard H. McAdams, and John Rappaport.
“Preventing the Use of Deadly Force: The Relationship Between Police Agency Policies and Rates of Officer-Involved Gun Deaths” by Jay T. Jennings and Meghan E. Rubado.
“Misdemeanor Prosecution” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, and Anna Harvey.
“Prosecutorial Reforms and Local Crime Rates” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, and Anna Harvey.
“Too Tough on Crime? The Impact of Prosecutor Politics on Incarceration” by Ashna Arora.
“The Effect of DA Elections on Public Safety” by Dvir Yogev. [Working Paper available from the author].
“Does Prosecutor Partisanship Exacerbate the Racial Charging Gap? Evidence from District Attorneys in Three States” by Sidak Yntiso.

Episode 96: Andreas Kotsadam on jobs and intimate partner violence Jun 20, 2023

Andreas Kotsadam talks about how giving women jobs affects intimate partner violence in Ethiopia.

“Jobs and Intimate Partner Violence - Evidence from a Field Experiment in Ethiopia” by Andreas Kotsada and Espen Villanger.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“The Gender Wage Gap and Domestic Violence” by Anna Aizer.
“Unemployment and Domestic Violence: Theory and Evidence” by Dan Anderberg, Helmut Rainer, Jonathan Wadsworth, and Tanya Wilson.
“Women’s Access to the Labour Market and Domestic Violence: Causal Evidence from Mexico” by Manuel Davila.
“Family Types and Intimate Partner Violence: A Historical Perspective” by Ana Tur-Prats.
Episode 17 of Probable Causation: Ana Tur-Prats.
“A Mixed-Method Review of Cash Transfers and Intimate Partner Violence in Low- and Middle-Income Countries” by Ana Maria Buller, Amber Peterman, Meghan Ranganathan, Alexandra Bleile, Melissa Hidrobo, and Lori Heise.
“Theoretical Underpinnings and Meta-Analysis of the Effects of Cash Transfers on Intimate Partner Violence in Low-and Middle-Income Countries” by Victoria Baranov, Lisa Cameron, Diana Contreras Suarez, and Claire Thibout.
“The Impacts of Industrial and Entrepreneurial Work on Income and Health: Experimental Evidence from Ethiopia” by Christopher Blattman and Stefan Dercon.
“Statistical Analysis of List Experiments” by Graeme Blair and Kosuke Imai.
“The Comparative Impact of Cash Transfer and Psychotherapy on Psychological and Economic Well-being” by Johannes Haushofer, Robert Mudida, and Jeremy Shapiro.
“Backlash: Female Economic Empowerment and Domestic Violence” by Sanna Bergvall.
“Paid Work for Women and Domestic Violence: Evidence from the Rwanda Coffee Mills” by Deniz Sanin.
“The Dynamics of Abusive Relationships” by Abi Adams-Prassl, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang.
“Sexual Harassment in Public Spheres and Police Patrolling: Experimental Evidence from Urban India” by Sofia Amaral, Girija Borker, Nathan Fiala, Anjani Kumar, Nishith Prakash and Maria Micaela Sviatschi. [Draft available from the authors upon request].
Episode 85 of Probable Causation: Sofia Amaral.
“Cultural Distance and Conflict-Related Sexual Violence” by Eleonora Guarnieri and Ana Tur-Prats.
“Violence Against Women at Work” by Abi Adams-Prassl, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang.
Episode 87 of Probable Causation: Emily Nix

Episode 95: Marcella Alsan on fear and the social safety net Jun 06, 2023

Marcella Alsan talks about how Secure Communities affected take-up of safety net programs.

“Fear and the Safety Net: Evidence from Secure Communities” by Marcella Alsan and Crystal S. Yang.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Immigration Enforcement and Economic Resources of Children with Likely Unauthorized Parents” by Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, Esther Arenas-Arroyo, and Almudena Sevilla.
“Distributing the Green (Cards): Permanent Residency and Personal Income Taxes After the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986” by Elizabeth Cascio and Ethan Lewis.
“Inside the Refrigerator: Immigration Enforcement and Chilling in Immigrant Medicaid Participation” by Tara Watson.
“Immigration and the Welfare State: Immigrant Participation in Means-Tested Entitlement Programs” by George Borjas and Lynette Hilton.
“Network Effects and Welfare Cultures” by Marianne Bertrand, Erzo Luttmer, and Sendhil Mullainathan.
“Understanding the Quality of Alternative Citizenship Data Sources for the 2020 Census” by J. David Brown, Misty Heggeness, Suzanne Dorinski, and Lawrence Warren.
“Does Welfare Prevent Crime? The Criminal Justice Outcomes of Youth Removed from SSI” by Manasi Deshpande and Michael Mueller-Smith.
“Does Immigration Enforcement Reduce Crime? Evidence from Secure Communities” by Thomas J. Miles and Adam B. Cox.
“Unintended Consequences of Immigration Enforcement: Household Services and High-Educated Mothers' Work” by Chloe East and Andrea Velasquez.
“The Labor Market Effects of Immigration Enforcement” by Chloe East, Philip Luck, Hani Mansour, and Andrea Velasquez.
“Immigration Enforcement and Public Safety” by Felipe Gonçalves, Elisa Jácome, and Emily Weisburst. [Draft available from the authors].
“Immigration Enforcement and the Institutionalization of Elderly Americans” by Abdulmohsen Almuhaisen, Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, and Delia Furtado. [Draft available from the authors]
“Take-up and Targeting: Experimental Evidence from SNAP” by Amy Finkelstein and Matthew J. Notowidigdo.
“Reducing Ordeals through Automatic Enrollment: Evidence from a Subsidized Health Insurance Exchange” by Mark Shepard and Myles Wagner.

Episode 94: Jesse Bruhn on the effects of gangs in Chicago May 23, 2023

Jesse Bruhn talks about the effects of gangs in Chicago.

“Competition in the Black Market: Estimating the Causal Effect of Gangs in Chicago” by Jesse Bruhn.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago” by Monica Bhatt, Sara Heller, Max Kapustin, Marianne Bertrand, and Christopher Blattman.
Probable Causation Episode 88: Sara Heller and Max Kapustin.
“Gangs, Labor Mobility, and Development” by Nikita Melnikov, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and Maria Micaela Sciatschi.
Probable Causation Episode 15: Mica Sviatschi.
“Growing Up in the Projects: The Economic Lives of a Cohort of Men Who Came of Age in Chicago Public Housing” by Steven Levitt and Sudhir Allude Venkatesh.
“Gangs of Medellin: How Organized Crime is Organized” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobon. [Unpublished Manuscript]
“Gang Rule: Understanding and Countering Criminal Governance” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobon.
“Can Precision Policing Reduce Gun Violence? Evidence from “Gang Takedowns” in New York City” by Aaron Chalfin, Michael LaForest, and Jacob Kaplan.
“The Effects of Civil Gang Injunctions on Reported Violent Crime: Evidence from Los Angeles County” by Jeffrey Grogger.
“Student Exposure to Proactive Policing: Heterogenous Effects of Los Angeles Gang Injunctions” by Jessica Wagner. [Available from the author upon request]

Episode 93: Justin Holz on peer effects in police use of force May 09, 2023

Justin Holz talks about peer effects in police use of force.

“Peer Effects in Police Use of Force” by Justin E. Holz, Roman G. Rivera, and Bocar A. Ba.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“The Effect of Field Training Officers on Police Use of Force” by Chandon Adger, Mathew Ross, and CarlyWill Sloan.
Probable Causation Episode 90: Matthew Ross.
“Does Race Matter for Police Use of Force? Evidence from 911 Calls” by Mark Hoekstra and CarlyWill Sloan.
Probable Causation Episode 38: CarlyWill Sloan.
“An Empirical Analysis of Racial Differences in Police Use of Force” by Roland G. Fryer Jr.
“An Empirical Analysis of Racial Differences in Police Use of Force: A Comment” by Steven N. Durlauf and James J. Heckman.
“Wearing Body Cameras Increases Assaults Against Officers and Does Not Reduce Police Use of Force: Results from a Global Multi-site Experiment” By Barak Ariel, Alex Sutherland, Darren Penstock, Josh Young, Paul Drove, Jayne Sykes, Simon Megicks, and Ryan Henderson.
“The “Less-Than-Lethal Weapons Effect”- Introducing TASERs to Routine Operations in England and Wales: A Randomized Controlled Trial” by Barak Ariel, David Lawes, Cristobal Weinborn, Ron Henry, Kevin Chen, and Hagit Brants Sabo.
“American Policing and the Danger Imperative” by Michael Sierra-Arevalo.
“Racial Profiling and Use of Force in Police Stops: How Local Events Trigger Periods of Increased Discrimination” by Joscha Legewie.
“Violence and Risk Preference: Experimental Evidence from Afghanistan” by Michael Callen, Mohammad Isaqzadeh, James D. Long, and Charles Sprenger.
“Exposure to Violence Predicts Impulsivity in Time Preferences: Evidence from The Democratic Republic of Congo” by Alex Imas, Michael Kuhn, and Vera Mironova. [Working Paper].
“Violence, Psychological Trauma, and Risk Attitudes: Evidence from Victims of Violence in Colombia” by Andrés Moya.
“Impact of Violent Crime on Risk Aversion: Evidence from the Mexican Drug War” by Ryan Brown, Verónica Montalva, Duncan Thomas, and Andrea Velásquez.
Probable Causation Episode 42: Andrea Velásquez.
“Family Violence and Football: The Effect of Unexpected Emotional Cues on Violence Behavior” by David Card and Gordon B. Dahl.
“Frustration, Euphoria, and Violent Crime” by Ignacio Munyo and Martin A. Rossi.
“Emotional Judges and Unlucky Juveniles” by Ozkan Eren and Naci Mocan.
“Nonfatal Injuries to Law Enforcement Officers: A Rise in Assaults” by Hope M. Tiesman, Melody Gwilliam, Srinivas Konda, Jeff Rojek, and Suzanne Marsh.
“Emotional Reactivity and Police Expertise in Use-of-Force Decision-Making” by Vivian Ta, Brian Lande, and Joel Suss.
“Do Police Make Too Many Arrests?: The Effect of Enforcement Pullbacks on Crime” by Sungwoo Cho, Felipe Conclaves, and Emily Weisburst.
“The Effect of Minority Peers on Future Arrests Quantity and Quality” by Roman Rivera.
“Police Officer Assignment and Neighborhood Crime” by Bocar Ba, Patrick Bayer, Nayoung Rim, Roman Rivera, and Modibo Sidibé.
“Strengthening Police Oversight: Impacts of Misconduct Investigators on Police Officer Behavior” by Andrew Jordan and Taeho Kim.
“Does Black and Blue Matter? An Experimental Investigation of Race and Perceptions of Police, and Legal Compliance” by Mackenzie Alston and Emily Owens.
“High-Frequency Location Data Shows that Race Affects the Likelihood of Being Stopped and Fined for Speeding” by Pradhi Aggarwal, Alec Brandon, Ariel Goldszmidt, Justin Holz, John A. List, Ian Muir, Greg Sun, and Thomas Yu.

Episode 92: Laura Khoury on the mental health effects of prison in Norway Apr 25, 2023

Laura Khoury talks about the mental health effects of prison in Norway.

“Prison, Mental Health, and Family Spillovers” by Manudeep Bhuller, Laura Khoury, and Katrine V. Løken.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“The Effect of Incarceration on Mortality” by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.
“The Health Effects of Prison” by Randi Hjalmarsson and Matthew J. Lindquist.
“Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment” by Mandeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.

Bonus episode: Joanna Schwartz on accountability for police misconduct Apr 18, 2023

David Eil talks with Joanna Schwartz about her book, "Shielded: How the Police Became Untouchable."

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Episode 91: Allison Harris on registering returning citizens to vote Apr 11, 2023

Allison Harris talks about increasing the civic engagement of people with felony convictions.

"Registering Returning Citizens to Vote” by Jennifer Doleac, Laurel Eckhouse, Eric Foster-Moore, Allison Harris, Hannah Walker, and Ariel White.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Can Incarcerated Felons be (Re)integrated into the Political System? Results from a Field Experiment” by Alan S. Gerber, Gregory A. Huber, Marc Meredith, Daniel R. Bigger, and David J. Hendry.
“The Politics of the Restoration of Ex-felon Voting Rights: The Case of Iowa” by Marc Meredith and Michael Morse.
“Using Causal Forests to Predict Treatment Heterogeneity: An Application to Summer Jobs” by Jonathan David and Sara B. Heller.
"Estimation and Inference of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Random Forests" by Stefan Wager and Susan Athey.
“Civic Responses to Police Violence” by Desmond And and John Tebes. [Working Paper].
“Mobilized by Injustice: Criminal Justice Contact, Political Participation, and Race” by Hannah L. Walker.
Bonus Episode 10 of Probable Causation: Hannah Walker.

Episode 90: Matthew Ross on police field training Mar 28, 2023

Matthew Ross talks about how field training officers affect police use of force.

“The Effect of Field Training Officers on Police Use of Force” by Chandon Adger, Matthew Ross, and CarlyWill Sloan.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“A Few Bad Apples? Racial Bias in Policing” by Felipe Goncalves & Steven Mello.
“Does Race Matter for Police Use of Force? Evidence from 911 Calls” by Mark Hoekstra and CarlyWill Sloan. [American Economic Review forthcoming].
“Randomized Controlled Trial of Social Interaction Police Training” by Kyle McLean, Scott E. Wolfe, Jeff Rojek, Geoffrey P. Alpert, and Michael R. Smith.
“Is Police Training an Effective Intervention for Addressing Disparities?” by Hunter Johnson, Stephen L. Ross, and Steve Mello. [Available from the authors].
“Can You Build a Better Cop? Experimental Evidence on Supervision, Training, and Policing in the Community” by Emily Owens, David Weisburd, Karen L. Amendola, and Geoffrey P. Alpert.
“Learning By Doing in Law Enforcement” by Jeremy West.
“The Effect of Minority Peers on Future Arrest Quantity and Quality” by Roman Rivera.
“Peer Effects in Police Use of Force” by Justin Holz, Roman Rivera and Bocar Ba.
“Whose Help is on the Way? The Importance of Individual Police Officers in Law Enforcement Outcomes” by Emily Weisburst.
“A Cognitive View of Police Misconduct” by Oendrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur, and Anuj Shah [Paper available from the authors].
“Proud to Belong: The Impact of Ethics Training on Police Officers” by Donna Harris, Oana Borcan, Danila Serra, Henry Telli, Bruno Schettini, and Stefan Dercon.
Episode 73 of Probable Causation: Danila Serra.

Episode 89: Graeme Blair on community policing in the Global South Mar 14, 2023

Graeme Blair talks about the effects of community policing in the Global South.

“Community Policing Does Not Build Citizen Trust in Police or Reduce Crime in the Global South” by Graeme Blair, Jeremy M. Weinstein, Fotini Christia, Eric Arias, Emile Badran, Robert A. Blair, Ali Cheema, Thiemo Fetzer, Guy Grossman, Dotan Haim, Rebecca Hanson, Ali Hasanain, Ben Kachero, Dorothy Kronick, Benjamin Morse, Robert Muggah, Matthew Nanes, Tara Slough, Nico Ravanilla, Jacob N. Shapiro, Barbara Silva, Pedro C. L. Souza, Lily Tsai, and Anna Wilke.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Community Policing, Chicago Style” by Wesley G. Skogan and Susan M. Hartnett.
“Impact Evaluation of the LAPD Community Safety Partnership” by Sydney Kahmann, Erin Hartman, Jorja Leap, and P. Jeffrey Brantingham.
“Crime, Insecurity, and Community Policing: Experiments on Building Trust” by Graeme Blair, Fotini Christia, Jeremy M. Weinstein, Eric Arias, Emile Badran, Robert A. Blair, Ali Cheema, Thiemo Fetzer, Guy Grossman, Dotan Haim, Rebecca Hanson, Ali Hasanain, Ben Kachero, Dorothy Kronick, Benjamin Morse, Robert Muggah, Matthew Nanes, Tara Slough, Nico Ravanilla, Jacob N. Shapiro, Barbara Silva, Pedro C. L. Souza, Lily Tsai, and Anna Wilke. [Forthcoming book.]

Episode 88: Sara Heller and Max Kapustin on reducing gun violence Feb 28, 2023

Sara Heller and Max Kapustin talk about the effects of the READI program on gun violence in Chicago.

“Predicting and Preventing Gun Violence: An Experimental Evaluation of READI Chicago” by Monica P. Bhatt, Sara B. Heller, Max Kapustin, Marianne Bertrand, and Christopher Blattman.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Cure Violence: A Public Health Model to Reduce Gun Violence” by Jeffrey Butts, Caterina Gouvis Roman, Lindsay Bostwick, and Jeremy R. Porter.
“Machine Learning Can Predict Shooting Victimization Well Enough to Help Prevent It” by Sara B Heller, Benjamin Jakubowski, Zubin Jelveh, and Max Kapustin.
“The Enhanced Transitional Jobs Demonstration: Implementation and Early Impacts of the Next Generation of Subsidized Employment Programs” by Cindy Redcross, Bret Barden, Dan Bloom, Joseph Broads, Jennifer Thompson, Sonya Williams, Sam Elkins, Randall Jurus, Janae Bonus, Ada Tso et al.
“Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.
“Reducing Crime and Violence: Experimental Evidence from Cognitive Behavioral Therapy in Liberia” by Christopher Blattman, Julian C. Jamison, and Margaret Sheridan.
“Reducing Violence Without Police: A Review of Research Evidence” by Charles Branas, Shani Bugs, Jeffrey A. Butts, Anna Harvey, and Erin M. Kerrison.
“Advance Peace Stockton, 2018-20 Evaluation Report” by Jason Corburn and Amanda Fukutome.
“Implementation Evaluation of Roca, Inc.” by Abt Associates.
“Reaching and Connecting: Preliminary Results from Chicago CRED’s Impact on Gun Violence Involvement” by Northwestern Neighborhood & Network Initiative.

Episode 87: Emily Nix on violence against women at work Feb 14, 2023

Emily Nix talks about how violence against women at work affects the victims, perpetrators, and firms.

“Violence Against Women at Work” by Abi Adams-Prassl, Kristiina Huttunen, Emily Nix, and Ning Zhang.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Sexual Harassment and Gender Inequality in the Labor Market” by Olle Folke and Johanna Rickne.
“Incentives for Managers and Inequality Among Workers: Evidence from a Firm-Level Experiment” by Oriana Bandiera, Iwan Barankay, and Imran Rasul.
“What Drives Differences in Management Practices?” by Nicholas Bloom, Erik Brynjolfsson, Lucia Foster, Ron Jarmin, Megha Patnaik, Itay Saporta-Eksten, and John Van Reenen.
“When Harry Fired Sally: The Double Standard in Punishing Misconduct” by Mark Egan, Gregor Matvos, and Amit Seru.
“Monitoring Harassment in Organizations” by Laura Boudreau, Sylvain Chassang, and Ada Gonzalez-Torres. [Working paper.]

Episode 7: Jeff Weaver on the effects of parental and sibling incarceration (REBROADCAST) Jan 31, 2023

Jeff Weaver talks about the long-term effects of parental and sibling incarceration. This episode was first posted in July 2019.

"The Effect of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Disrupted Childhoods: Children of Women in Prison” by Jane A. Siegal.
“Parental Arrest and Incarceration: How Does it Affect Children?” By Stephen B. Billings.
“Incarceration Spillovers in Criminal and Family Networks” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.
“Doing Time Together: Love and Family in the Shadow of Prison” by Megan Comfort.
"Intergenerational Effects of Incarceration" by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.
“Shared Punishment? The Impact of Incarcerating Fathers on Child Outcomes” by Kristiina Kuttunen, Martti Kaila, and Emily Nix. Draft available from authors upon request.
"The Intergenerational Effects of Parental Incarceration" by Will Dobbie, Hans Grönqvist, Susan Niknami, Mårten Palme, and Mikael Priks.
"The Cost of Bad Parents: Evidence from the Effects of Parental Incarceration on Children's Education" by Carolina Arteaga.
“Incarceration, Recidivism, and Employment” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.
"Does Incarceration Increase Crime?" by Evan K. Rose and Yotam Shem-Tov.
"The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith.

Episode 3: Analisa Packham on syringe exchange programs (REBROADCAST) Jan 17, 2023

Analisa Packham talks about the effects of syringe exchange programs on HIV rates, opioid abuse, and crime. This episode was first posted in May 2019.

"Are Syringe Exchange Programs Helpful or Harmful? New Evidence in the Wake of the Opioid Epidemic" by Analisa Packham.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Effectiveness of sterile needle and syringe programming in reducing HIV/AIDS among injecting drug users” — World Health Organization report.
“Needle exchange programs and drug injection behavior” by Jeff DeSimone.
“Needle exchange programs: Research suggests promise as an AIDS prevention strategy” — GAO report.
“Syringe exchange programs around the world: The global context” — GMHC report.
“The Effects of Naloxone Access Laws on Opioid Abuse, Mortality, and Crime” by Jennifer L. Doleac and Anita Mukherjee

Episode 86: Elizabeth Luh on financial penalties Jan 03, 2023

Elizabeth Luh talks about the effects of financial penalties in the criminal justice system.

“The Impact of Financial Sanctions: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Driver Responsibility Fee Programs in Michigan and Texas” by Keith Finlay, Matthew Gross, Elizabeth Luh, and Michael Mueller-Smith.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Drawing Blood from Stones: Legal Debt andSocial Inequality in the Contemporary United States” by Alexes Harris, Heather Evans, and Katherine Beckett.
“Fines and Financial Wellbeing” by Steven Mello. [Working paper.]
”Does Punishment Compel Payment? Driver’s License Suspensions and Fine Delinquency” by Ryan E. Kessler. [Working paper.]
“Disparate Fine Collection: Evidence using Chicago Parking Tickets” by Elizabeth Luh. [Working paper.]
“Punishment and Deterrence: Evidence from Drunk Driving” by Benjamin Hansen.
“Learning from Law Enforcement” by Libor Dusek and Christian Traxler.
“Criminalizing Poverty: The Consequences of Court Fees in a Randomized Experiment” by Devah Pager, Rebecca Goldstein, Helen Ho, and Bruce Western.
“Measuring Child Exposure to the U.S. Justice System: Evidence from Longitudinal Links between Survey and Administrative Data” by Keith Finlay, Michael Mueller-Smith, and Brittany Street.
“Criminal Court Fees, Earnings, and EExpenditures: A Multi-state RD Analysis of Survey and Administrative Data” by Carl Lieberman, Elizabeth Luh, and Michael Mueller-Smith. [Working paper available from the authors upon request.]
“The (Non)Economics of Criminal Fines and Fees” by Tyler Giles.
“A Proposal to End Regressive Taxation through Law Enforcement” by Michael Makowsky.
“Revenue-Motivated Law Enforcement: Evidence, Consequences, and Policy Solutions” by Michael Makowsky.

Episode 85: Sofia Amaral on reducing street harassment in India Dec 20, 2022

Sofia Amaral talks about a police intervention in India that aims to reduce sexual harassment in public.

“Sexual Harassment in Public Spheres and Police Patrolling: Experimental Evidence from Urban India” by Sofia Amaral, Girija Borker, Nathan Fiala, Anjani Kumar, Nishith Prakash, and Maria Micaela Sviatschi.

[Working paper available from the authors.]

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Safety First: Perceived Risk of Street Harassment and Educational Choices of Women” by Girija Borker.
“Violence and Female Labor Supply” by Zahra Siddique.
“Demand for Safe Spaces: Avoiding Harassment and Stigma” by Florence Kondylis, Arianna Legovini, Kate Vyborny, Astrid Zwager, and Luiza Andrade.
“Women’s Mobility and Labor Supply Experimental Evidence from Pakistan” by Erica Field and Kate Vyborny.

Episode 84: Alex Albright on bail reform Dec 06, 2022

Alex Albright talks about money bail and the effects of bail reform.

“No Money Bail, No Problems? Trade-offs in a Pretrial Automatic Release Program” by Alex Albright.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Tripping through Hoops: The Effect of Violating Compulsory Government Procedures” by Natalia Emanuel and Helen Ho.
“The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges” by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang.
“Distortion of Justice: How the Inability to Pay Bail Affects Case Outcomes” by Megan T. Stevenson.
“The Unintended Impact of Pretrial Detention on Case Outcomes: Evidence from New York City Arraignments” by Emily Leslie and Nolan G. Pope.
“The Heavy Costs of High Bail: Evidence from Judge Randomization” by Arpit Gupta, Christopher Hansman, and Ethan Frenchman.
“Optimal Bail and the Value of Freedom: Evidence from the Philadelphia Bail Experiment” by David S. Abrams and Chris Rohlfs.
“Does Cash Bail Deter Misconduct?” by Aurelie Ouss and Megan T. Stevenson.
Episode 4 of Probable Causation: Megan Stevenson.
“Behavioral Nudges Reduce Failure to Appear for Court” by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah.
Episode 21 of Probable Causation: Aurelie Ouss.
“The Impact of Defense Counsel at Bail Hearings” by Shamena Anwar, Shawn D. Bushway, and John Engberg.
“Pursuing Pretrial Justice Through an Alternative to Bail” by Melanie Skemer, Cindy Redcross, and Howard Bloom.
“Release, Detain, or Surveil? The Effect of Electronic Monitoring on Defendant Outcomes” by Roman Rivera.

Episode 83: Kevin Wilson on DC’s 911 nurse triage line Nov 22, 2022

Kevin Wilson talks about a new approach for handling non-emergency health calls to 911: a nurse triage line in Washington, DC.

“Nurses in the 911 Loop Improve Care: A Randomized Controlled Trial” by Chrysanthi Hatzimasoura, Rebecca A. Johnson, Kevin H. Wilson, Robert P. Holman, Ryan T. Moore, and David Yokum.

Minor correction: During this conversation, Kevin mentioned that nurses could book primary care appointments for callers. This is not quite accurate. Instead, nurses may refer callers to Federally Qualified Health Centers (FQHCs) with walk-in availability for primary care and book the caller a ride to the FQHC.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“A Community Response Approach to Mental Health and Substance Abuse Crises Reduced Crime” by Thomas S. Dee and Jaymes Pyne.
Episode 80 of Probable Causation: Thomas Dee.
Episode 77 of Probable Causation: Elizabeth Linos.
“Ten Solutions for Emergency Department Crowding” by Robert W. Derlet and John R. Richards.
“A Randomized Control Trial Evaluating the Effects of Police Body-worn Cameras” by David Yokum, Anita Ravishankar, and Alexander Coppock.
Episode 78 of Probable Causation: Sandip Sukhtankar.
Episode 75 of Probable Causation: Panka Bencsik.
Episode 67 of Probable Causation: David Phillips.

Episode 82: Kirabo Jackson on the multiple dimensions of school quality Nov 08, 2022

Kirabo Jackson talks about the multiple dimensions of school quality, and whether parents can tell which schools are better than others.

“What is a Good School, and Can Parents Tell? Evidence on the Multidimensionality of School Output” by Diether Beuerman, C. Kirabo Jackson, Laia Navarro-Sola, and Francisco Pardo.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Do Parents Value School Effectiveness?” by Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Parag Pathak, Jonathan Schellenberg, and Christopher Walters.
“Why Do Households Leave School Value Added 'on the Table'? The Roles of Information and Preferences” by Robert Ainsworth, Rajeev Dehejia, Cristian Pop-Eleches, and Miguel Urquiola.
“Smart Matching Platforms and Heterogeneous Beliefs in Centralized School Choice” by Felipe Arteaga, Adam J Kapor, Christopher A Neilson, and Seth D Zimmerman.

Episode 81: Anita Mukherjee on how heat affects violence in prisons Oct 25, 2022

Anita Mukherjee talks about how heat affects violent behavior in prisons.

“The Causal Effect of Heat on Violence: Social Implications of Unmitigated Heat Among the Incarcerated” by Anita Mukherjee and Nicholas J. Sanders.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Interpersonal Violence Associated with Hot Weather” by Rahini Mahendran, Rongbin Xu, Shanshan Li, and Yuming Guo.
“Heat and Violence" by Craig A. Anderson.
“Temper, Temperature, and Temptation: Heat-related Retaliation in Baseball” by Richard P. Larrick, Thomas A. Timmerman, Andrew M. Carton, and Jason Abrevaya.
“The Urban Crime and Heat Gradient in High and Low Poverty Areas” by Kilian Heilmann, Matthew E. Kahn, and Cheng Keat Tang.
“Access to Guns in the Heat of the Moment: The Effect of Gun Laws on Violent Crime” by Jonathan Colmer and Jennifer L. Doleac. [Working paper.]
“Destructive Behavior, Judgment, and Economic Decision-making Under Thermal Stress” by Ingvild Almas et al. [Working paper.]
“Keep the Kids Inside? Juvenile Curfews and Urban Gun Violence” by Jillian B. Carr and Jennifer L. Doleac.
“Heat, Crime, and Punishment” by A. Patrick Behrer and Valentin Bolotnyy.

Episode 80: Thomas Dee on sending health workers to 911 calls Oct 11, 2022

Thomas Dee talks about the effects of dispatching health workers instead of police to some 911 calls.

“A Community Response Approach to Mental Health and Substance Abuse Crises Reduced Crime” by Thomas S. Dee and Jaymes Pyne.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Variation Across Police Response Models for Handling Encounters with People with Mental Illnesses: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis” by Chunghyeon Seo, Bitna Kim, and Nathan E. Kruis.
“Crisis Averted? The Effect of Crisis Intervention Units on Arrests and Use of Force” by Maya Mikdash and Chelsea Strickland. [Draft available from authors upon request]

Episode 22: Phil Levine on gun exposure and accidental shootings (REBROADCAST) Sep 27, 2022

Phil Levine talks about the increase in gun exposure and accidental shootings in the wake of Sandy Hook. This episode was first posted in February 2020.

"Firearms and Accidental Deaths: Evidence from the Aftermath of the Sandy Hook School Shooting" by Phillip B. Levine and Robin McKnight.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

"The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of Gun Policies in the United States" by Andrew R. Morral, Rajeev Ramchand, Rosanna Smart, Carole Roan Gresenz, Samantha Cherney, Nancy Nicosia, Carter C. Price, Stephanie Brooks Holliday, Elizabeth L. Petrun Sayers, Terry L. Schell, Eric Apaydin, Joshua Lawrence Traub, Lea Xenakis, John Speed Meyers, Rouslan I. Karimov, Brett Ewing, and Beth Ann Griffin.
"What Happens After Calls for New Gun Restrictions? Sales Go Up" by Gregor Aisch and Josh Keller
"More than 240,000 Students have Experienced Gun Violence at School Since Columbine" by John Woodrow Cox, Steven Rich, Allyson Chiu, John Muyskens, and Monica Ulmanu

Episode 35: Erich Muehlegger on air pollution and crime (REBROADCAST) Sep 13, 2022

Erich Muehlegger talks about the effect of air pollution on crime. This episode was first posted in September 2020.

"Air Pollution and Criminal Activity: Microgeographic Evidence from Chicago" by Evan Herrnstadt, Anthony Heyes, Erich Muehlegger, and Soodeh Saberian.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Crime Is in the Air: The Contemporaneous Relationship between Air Pollution and Crime” by Malvina Bondy, Sefi Roth, and Lutz Sager.
“The effect of pollution on crime: Evidence from data on particulate matter and ozone” by Jesse Burkhardt, Jude Bayham, Ander Wilson, Ellison Carter, Jesse D. Berman, Katelyn O’Dell, Bonne Ford, Emily V. Fischer, and Jeffrey R. Pierce.
“The Mortality and Medical Costs of Air Pollution: Evidence from Changes in Wind Direction” by Tatyana Deryugina, Garth Heutel, Nolan H. Miller, David Molitor, and Julian Reif.
“Airports, Air Pollution, and Contemporaneous Health” by Wolfram Schlenker and W. Reed Walker.
“Traffic Congestion and Infant Health: Evidence from E-ZPass” by Janet Currie and Reed Walker.
“As the Wind Blows: The Effects of Long-Term Exposure to Air Pollution on Mortality” by Michael L. Anderson.
“Air pollution and children's respiratory health: A cohort analysis” by Timothy K.M. Beatty and Jay P. Shimshack.
“Air Quality and Error Quantity: Pollution and Performance in a High-Skilled, Quality-Focused Occupation” by James Archsmith, Anthony Heyes, and Soodeh Saberian.
“The Long-Run Economic Consequences of High-Stakes Examinations: Evidence from Transitory Variation in Pollution” by Avraham Ebenstein, Victor Lavy, and Sefi Roth.

Episode 79: Jenny Williams on electronic monitoring Aug 30, 2022

Jenny Williams talks about electronic monitoring as an alternative to incarceration.

“Can Electronic Monitoring Reduce Reoffending?” by Jenny Williams and Don Weatherburn.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Criminal Recidivism after Prison and Electronic Monitoring” by Rafael Di Tella and Ernesto Schargrodsky.
“Early Release from Prison on Electronic Monitoring and Recidivism: A Tale of Two Discontinuities” by Olivier Marie.
“Better at Home Than in Prison? The Effects of Electronic Monitoring on Recidivism in France” by Anaïs Henneguelle, Benjamin Monnery, and Annie Kensey.
“Electronic Monitoring and Recidivism: Quasi-Experimental Evidence form Norway” by Synøve Nygaard Andersen and Kjetil Telle.

Episode 78: Sandip Sukhtankar on Women’s Help Desks in police stations in India Aug 16, 2022

Sandip Sukhtankar talks about the effects of Women's Help Desks in police stations in India.

“Policing in Patriarchy: An Experimental Evaluation of Reforms to Improve Police Responsiveness to Women in India” by Gabrielle Kruks-Wisner, Akshay Mangla, and Sandip Sukhtankar.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Women's Police Stations and Intimate Partner Violence: Evidence from Brazil” by Elizaveta Perova and Sarah Reynolds.
“Gender, Crime and Punishment: Evidence from Women Police Stations in India” by Sofia Amaral, Sonia Bhalotra and Nishith Prakash. [Working paper available from the authors].
“Community Policing Does Not Build Citizen Trust in Police or Reduce Crime in the Global South” by Graeme Blair et al.

Episode 77: Elizabeth Linos on reducing burnout for 911 dispatchers Aug 02, 2022

Elizabeth Linos talks about reducing burnout for frontline workers like 911 dispatchers.

“Reducing Burnout and Resignations Among Frontline Workers: A Field Experiment” by Elizabeth Linos, Krista Ruffini, and Stephanie Wilcoxen.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“The Copenhagen Burnout Inventory: A New Tool for the Assessment of Burnout” by Tage S. Kristensen, Marianne Borritz, Ebbe Villadsen, and Karl B. Christensen.
“Understanding Burnout in Correctional Officers” by Jessie Harney and Elizabeth Linos

[Working paper available from the authors.]
Episode 43 of Probable Causation: Elizabeth Linos

Episode 76: Tim Moore on the long-term effects of the crack cocaine epidemic Jul 19, 2022

Tim Moore talks about the long-term effects of the US crack cocaine epidemic on gun violence.

“Guns and Violence: The Enduring Impact of Crack Cocaine Markets on Young Black Males” by William N. Evans, Craig Garthwaite, and Timothy J. Moore.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“The White/Black Educational Gap, Stalled Progress, and the Long-term Consequences of the Emergence of Crack Cocaine Markets” by William N. Evans, Craig Garthwaite, and Timothy J. Moore.
“Youth Violence, Guns and the Illicit-drug Industry” by Alfred Blumstein.
Episode 16 of Probable Causation: Stephen Billings.
“The Emergence of Crack Cocaine and the Rise in Urban Crime Rates” by Jeff Grogger and Michael Willis.
“Measuring Crack Cocaine and its Impact” by Roland G. Fryer Jr., Paul S. Heaton, Steven D. Levitt, and Kevin M. Murphy.
“The Social Costs of Gun Ownership” by Philip J. Cook and Jens Ludwig.
“It's the Phone, Stupid: Mobiles and Murder” by Lena Edlund and Cecilia Machado.
“The Role of Gun Supply in 1980s and 1990s Youth Violence” by Wm. Alan Bartley and Geoffrey Williams.
“Firearms and Violence Under Jim Crow” by Michael D. Makowsky and Patrick L. Warren.
“The Emergence of the Crack Epidemic and City-to-Suburb Mobility Between and Within Ethno-Racial Groups” by Takuma Kamada.
“Illegal Drugs and Public Corruption: Crack Based Evidence from California” by Alessandro Flamini, Babak Jahanshahi, and Kamiar Mohaddes.
“Opioid Use, Health and Crime: Insights from a Rapid Reduction in Heroin Supply” by Timothy J. Moore & Kevin T. Schnepel.
Episode 5 of Probable Causation: Kevin Schnepel.
Episode 27 of Probable Causation: Benjamin Hansen.
“Causes and Consequences of Illicit Drug Epidemics” by Timothy J. Moore and Rosalie Liccardo Pacula.

Episode 75: Panka Bencsik on diversion for drug possession arrests Jul 05, 2022

Panka Bencsik talks about a Chicago diversion program for drug possession arrests.

“Policing Substance Use: Chicago’s Treatment Program for Narcotics Arrests” by Ashna Arora and Panka Bencsik.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Misdemeanor Prosecution” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, & Anna Harvey.
Episode 51 of Probable Causation: Amanda Agan & Anna Harvey.
“Diversion in the Criminal Justice System” by Michael Mueller-Smith & Kevin Schnepel.
Episode 5 of Probable Causation: Kevin Schnepel.
“Do Police Make Too Many Arrests? The Effect of Enforcement Pullbacks on Crime” by Sungwoo Cho, Felipe Goncalves, and Emily Weisburst.
Episode 65 of Probable Causation: Felipe Goncalves.
“Seattle’s Law Enforcement Assisted Diversion (LEAD): Program Effects on Criminal Justice and Legal System Utilization and Costs” by Susan E. Collins, Heather S. Lonczak, & Seema L. Clifasefi.
“Local Access to Mental Healthcare and Crime” by Monica Deza, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and Keisha Solomon.
“Reducing Re-arrests through Light Touch Mental Health Outreach” by Mary Kate Batistich, William N. Evans, and David C. Phillips.
Episode 67 of Probable Causation: David Phillips.
“Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome.
Episode 60 of Probable Causation: Elisa Jácome.

Episode 74: Bryan Stuart on social connectedness and crime Jun 21, 2022

Bryan Stuart talks about how social connectedness within cities affects local crime rates.

“The Effect of Social Connectedness on Crime: Evidence from the Great Migration” by Bryan Stuart and Evan Taylor.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

All Our Kin by Carol B. Stack.
“Neighborhoods and Violent Crime: A Multilevel Study of Collective Efficacy” by Robert J. Sampson, Stephen W. Raudenbush, and Felton Earls.
“Social Interactions and Location Decisions: Evidence from U.S. Mass Migration” by Bryan A. Stuart and Evan J. Taylor (Forthcoming).
“Can You Move to Opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration” by Ellora Derenoncourt.
Episode 36 of Probable Causation: Ellora Derenoncourt.
“Are U.S. Cities Underpoliced? Theory and Evidence” by Aaron Chalfin and Justin McCrary.

Episode 73: Danila Serra on ethics training for police in Ghana Jun 07, 2022

Danila Serra talks about the effects of a new ethics training program for police officers in Ghana.

“Proud to Belong: The Impact of Ethics Training on Police in Ghana” by Donna Harris, Oana Borcan, Danila Serra, Henry Telli, Bruno Schettini, and Stefan Dercon.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Can You Build a Better Cop? Experimental Evidence on Supervision, Training, and Policing in the Community” by Emily Owens, David Weisburd, Karen L. Amendola, and Geoffrey P. Alpert.
“Shaping Police Officer Mindsets and Behaviors: Experimental Evidence of Procedural Justice Training” by Rodrigo Canales et al.
“The Greater Manchester Police Procedural Justice Training Experiment” by Levin Wheller, Paul Quinton, Alistair Fildes, and Andy Mills.
“Can Police Training Reduce Ethnic/Racial Disparities in Stop and Search? Evidence from a Multisite UK Trial” by Joel Miller, Paul Quinton, Banos Alexandrou, and Daniel Packham.
“Procedural Justice Training Reduces Police Use of Force and Complaints Against Officers” by George Wood, Tom R. Tyler, and Andrew V. Papachristos.
Revised findings for “Procedural Justice Training Reduces Police Use of Force and Complaints Against Officers” by George Wood, Tom R. Tyler, Andrew V. Papachristos et al.
“Doing Research with Police Elites in Ghana” by Emmanuel Addo Sowatey and Justice Tankebe.
“The Effect of Field Training Officers on Police Use of Force” by Chandon Adger, Matthew Ross, and CarlyWill Sloan.

Episode 72: Manasi Deshpande on SSI benefits and crime May 24, 2022

Manasi Deshpande talks about how access to Supplementary Security Income (SSI) benefits affects criminal behavior.

“Does Welfare Prevent Crime? The Criminal Justice Outcomes of Youth Removed from SSI” by Manasi Deshpande and Michael Mueller-Smith.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Does Welfare Inhibit Success? The Long-Term Effects of Removing Low-Income Youth from the Disability Rolls” by Manasi Deshpande.
“Changing Circumstances: Experiences of Child SSI Recipients Before and After their Age-18 Redetermination for Adult Benefits” by Jeffrey Hemmeter, Jacqueline Kauff, and David Wittenburg.
“Longitudinal Patterns of Disability Program Participation and Mortality Across Childhood SSI Award Cohorts” by Kalman Rupp, Jeffrey Hemmeter, and Paul S. Davies.
“Does Public Assistance Reduce Recidivism?” by Crystal S. Yang.
“Does Emergency Financial Assistance Reduce Crime?” by Caroline Palmer, David C. Phillips, and James X. Sullivan.
Probable Causation Episode 34: David Phillips
Probable Causation Episode 9: Michael Mueller-Smith
“Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome.
Probable Causation Episode 60: Elisa Jácome

Bonus episode: Chris Blattman on why we fight May 17, 2022

David Eil talks with Chris Blattman about his book, "Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace."

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Episode 71: Zoë Cullen on increasing employment for people with criminal records May 10, 2022

Zoë Cullen talks about how to incentivize employers to hire workers with criminal records.

“Increasing the Demand for Workers with a Criminal Record” by Zoë Cullen, Will Dobbie, and Mitchell Hoffman.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“The Effect of Criminal Records on Access to Employment” by Amanda Agan and Sonja B. Starr.
“The Unintended Consequences of “Ban the Box”: Statistical Discrimination and Employment Outcomes When Criminal Histories Are Hidden” by Jennifer L. Doleac and Benjamin Hansen.
Episode 8 of Probable Causation: Amanda Agan
“Inefficient Hiring in Entry-Level Labor Markets” by Amanda Pallais.
“The Effects of Letters of Recommendation in the Youth Labor Market” by Sara B. Heller and Judd B. Kessler.

Episode 70: Pedro Souza on police body-worn cameras Apr 26, 2022

Pedro Souza talks about the effects of police body-worn cameras in Brazil.

“De-escalation Technology: The Impact of Body-worn Cameras on Citizen-police Interactions” by Daniel AC Barbosa, Thiemo Fetzer, Caterina Soto and Pedro CL Souza

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Wearing Body Cameras Increases Assaults Against Officers and Does Not Reduce Police Use of Force: Results from a Global Multi-site Experiment” by Barak Ariel, et al.
“The Effects of Body-Worn Cameras on Police Activity and Police-Citizen Encounters: A

Randomized Controlled Trial” by Anthony Braga, et al.
“Body-worn Cameras’ Effects on Police Officers and Citizen Behavior: A Systematic Review” by Cynthia Lum, et al.
“Evaluating the Effects of Police Body-worn Cameras: A Randomized Controlled Trial” by David Yokum, Anita Ravishankar, and Alexander Coppock.
“Community Policing Does Not Build Citizen Trust in Police or Reduce Crime in the Global South” by Graeme Blair, et al.
“How Body-worn Cameras Affect the Use of Gunshots , Stop-and Searches and Other Forms of Police Behavior: A Randomized Control Trial in Rio de Janeiro” by Beatriz Magaloni, Vanessa Melo, Gustavo Robles, and Gustavo Empinotti [WORKING PAPER]
“The Effects of Body-worn Cameras on Policing and Court Outcomes: Evidence from the Court System in Virginia” by Katie Bollman.

Episode 21: Aurelie Ouss on reducing failures-to-appear in court (REBROADCAST) Apr 12, 2022

Aurelie Ouss talks about using insights from behavioral economics to reduce failures-to-appear in court. This episode was first posted in January 2020.

"Nudging Crime Policy: Reducing Failures to Appear for Court" by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah. (Available from the authors upon request.)
Related policy paper: "Using Behavioral Science to Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes: Preventing Failures to Appear in Court" by Brice Cook, Binta Zahra Diop, Alissa Fishbane, Jonathan Hayes, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj Shah.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

"Bail, Jail, and Pretrial Misconduct: The Influence of Prosecutors" by Aurelie Ouss and Megan T. Stevenson.
“Distortion of Justice: How the Inability to Pay Bail Affects Case Outcomes” by Megan T. Stevenson.
“The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges” by Will Dobbie, Jacob Goldin, and Crystal S. Yang.
“The Unintended Impact of Pretrial Detention on Case Outcomes: Evidence from New York City Arraignments” by Emily Leslie and Nolan G. Pope.
“The Downstream Consequences of Misdemeanor Pretrial Detention” by Paul Heaton, Sandra Mayson, and Megan Stevenson.
Episode 4 of Probable Causation: Megan Stevenson
"Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.
“Behavioral Biases and Legal Compliance: A Field Experiment” by Natalia Emanuel and Helen Ho.

Episode 31: Randi Hjalmarsson on jury decision-making (REBROADCAST) Mar 29, 2022

Randi Hjalmarsson talks about how punishment severity affects juries' decisions to convict. This episode was first posted in June 2020.

"How Punishment Severity Affects Jury Verdicts: Evidence from Two Natural Experiments" by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Making the Crime Fit the Penalty: The Role of Prosecutorial Discretion under Mandatory Minimum Sentencing” by David Bjerk.
“The Impact of Jury Race in Criminal Trials” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“The Role of Age in Jury Selection and Trial Outcomes” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“A Jury of Her Peers: The Impact of the First Female Jurors on Criminal Verdicts” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“Politics in the Courtroom: Political Ideology and Jury Decision Making” by Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection: Media and Sentencing” by Aurelie Ouss and Arnaud Philippe.
“Path Dependency in Jury Decision Making” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“The Persistence of the Criminal Justice Gender Gap: Evidence from 200 Years of Judicial Decisions” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.
“The Impact of the First Professional Police Forces on Crime” by Anna Bindler and Randi Hjalmarsson.

Episode 69: Molly Schnell on school shootings Mar 15, 2022

Molly Schnell talks about how exposure to school shootings affects students.

“Trauma at School: The Impacts of Shootings on Students’ Human Capital and Economic Outcomes” by Marika Cabral, Bokyung Kim, Maya Rossin-Slater, Molly Schnell, and Hannes Schwandt

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Local Exposure to School Shootings and Youth Antidepressant Use” by Maya Rossin-Slater, Molly Schnell, Hannes Schwandt, Sam Trejo, and Lindsey Uniat.
“Not All School Shootings are the Same and the Differences Matter” by Phillip B. Levine and Robin McKnight.
“Exposure to a School Shooting and Subsequent Well-Being” by Phillip B. Levine and Robin McKnight.
“Shocking News and Cognitive Performance” by Panu Poutvaara and Olli Ropponen.
“School Shootings and Private School Enrollment” by Rahi Abouk and Scott Adams.
“The Effect of High School Shootings on Schools and Student Performance” by Louis-Philippe Beland and Dongwoo Kim.
“The Effects of Police Violence on Inner-City Students” by Desmond Ang.
Probable Causation Episode 50: Desmond Ang.
“Surviving a Mass Shooting” by Prashant Bharadwaj, Manudeep Bhuller, Katrine Løken, and Mirjam Wentzel.
“Violence and Human Capital Investments” by Martin Foureaux Koppensteiner and Lívia Menezes.

Bonus episode: Sarah Lageson on digital punishment Mar 08, 2022

David Eil talks with Sarah Lageson about her book, "Digital Punishment: Privacy, Stigma, and the Harms of Data-Driven Criminal Justice."

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Episode 68: Andrew Barr on nutritional assistance in early childhood Mar 01, 2022

Andrew Barr talks about how access to nutritional assistance in early childhood affects later criminal behavior.

“Fighting Crime in the Cradle: The Effects of Early Childhood Access to Nutritional Assistance” by Andrew Barr and Alexander A. Smith

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

Episode 1 of Probable Causation: Chloe Gibbs.
“Inside the War on Poverty: The Impact of Food Stamps on Birth Outcomes” by Douglas Almond, Hilary W. Hoynes, and Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach.
“Consumption Responses to In-Kind Transfers: Evidence from the Introduction of the Food Stamp Program” by Hilary W. Hoynes and Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach.
“Long-run Impacts of Childhood Access to the Safety Net” by Hilary Hoynes, Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach, and Douglas Almond.
“Work Incentives and the Food Stamp Program” by Hilary Williamson Hoynes and Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach.
“The Rate of Return to the HighScope Perry Preschool Program” by James J. Heckman, Seong Hyeok Moon, Rodrigo Pinto, Peter A. Savelyev, and Adam Yavitz.
“Adult Outcomes as a Function of an Early Childhood Educational Program: An Abecedarian Project Follow-up” by Frances A Campbell, Elizabeth P Pungello, Margaret Burchinal, Kirsten Kainz, Yi Pan, Barbara H Wasik, Oscar A Barbarin, Joseph J Sparling, and Craig T Ramey.
“Breaking the Cycle? Intergenerational Effects of an Anti-Poverty Program in Early Childhood” by Andrew C. Barr and Chloe Gibbs.
“Long-term Effects of Nurse Home Visitation on Children's Criminal and Antisocial Behavior: 15-Year Follow-up of a Randomized Controlled Trial” by David Olds, Charles R. Henderson Jr, and Robert Cole.
“Longer-Term Effects of Head Start” by Eliana Garces, Duncan Thomas, and Janet Currie.
“Early Childhood Intervention and Life-Cycle Skill Development: Evidence from Head Start” by David Deming.
“The Effect of Early Childhood Education on Adult Criminality: Evidence from the 1960s through 1990s” by John Anders, Andrew C. Barr, and Alexander A. Smith.
“Life after Lead: Effects of Early Interventions for Children Exposed to Lead” by Stephen B. Billings and Kevin T. Schnepel.
Episode 16 of Probable Causation: Steve Billings.
“The Impact of Youth Medicaid Eligibility on Adult Incarceration” by Samuel Arenberg, Seth Neller, and Sam Stripling.

Episode 67: David Phillips on mental health care for people released from jail Feb 15, 2022

David Phillips talks about connecting people released from jail with mental health care.

“Reducing Re-arrests through Light Touch Mental Health Outreach” by Mary Kate Batistich, William N. Evans and David C. Phillips

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Local Access to Mental Healthcare and Crime” by Monica Deza, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and Keisha Solomon.
“Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome.
Episode 60 of Probable Causation: Elisa Jácome.
“Substance Abuse Treatment Centers and Local Crime” by Samuel R. Bondurant, Jason M. Lindo, and Isaac D. Swensen.
“Behavioral Nudges Reduce Failure to Appear for Court” by Alissa Fishbane, Aurelie Ouss, and Anuj K. Shah.
Episode 21 of Probable Causation: Aurelie Ouss.
“The Impact of Youth Medicaid Eligibility on Adult Incarceration” by Samuel Arenberg, Seth Neller, and Sam Stripling.
“Stress on the Sidewalk: The Mental Health Costs of Close Proximity Crime” by Panka Bencsik.
“Policing Substance Use: Chicago's Treatment Program for Narcotics Arrests” by Ashna Arora and Panka Bencsik.
“Crisis Averted? The Effects of Crisis Intervention Units on Arrests and Use of Force” by Maya Mikdash and Chelsea Temple. (Draft available from the authors).

Episode 66: Aaron Chalfin on what motivates police officers Feb 01, 2022

Aaron Chalfin talks about the professional motivations of police officers.

“The Professional Motivations of Police Officers” by Aaron Chalfin and Felipe Goncalves.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Political Economy at any Speed: What Determines Traffic Citations?” by Michael D. Makowsky & Thomas Stratmann.
“Finders Keepers: Forfeiture Laws, Policing Incentives, and Local Budgets” by Katherine Baicker & Mireille Jacobson.
“The Effects of Asset Forfeiture on Policing: A Panel Approach” by Brian D. Kelly & Maureen Kole.
“The Ferguson Report: Department of Justice Investigation of the Ferguson Police Department” by Department of Justice.
“Pay, Reference Points, and Police Performance” by Alexandre Mas.
“Modern Police Tactics, Police-Citizen Interactions, and the Prospects for Reform” by Jonathan Mummolo.
“The Effect of Police Oversight on Crime and Allegations of Misconduct: Evidence from Chicago” by Bocar Ba & Roman Rivera.
“Arrest Decisions: What Works for the Officer?” by Edith Linn.
“‘Drive and Wave': The Response to LAPD Police Reforms After Rampart” by Canice Pendergast.
“Policing the Police: The Impact of 'Pattern-or-Practice' Investigations on Crime” by Tanaya Devi & Roland G. Fryer Jr.

Episode 65: Felipe Goncalves on whether police make too many arrests Jan 18, 2022

Felipe Goncalves talks about how reductions in police enforcement activity affect crime.

“Do Police Make Too Many Arrests? The Effect of Enforcement Pullbacks on Crime” by Sungwoo Cho, Felipe Goncalves, and Emily Weisburst.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“More COPS, Less Crime” by Steven Mello
“Panic on the Streets of London: Police, Crime, and the July 2005 Terror Attacks” by Mirko Draca, Stephen Machin, Robert Witt
“Misdemeanor Prosecution” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac & Anna Harvey
Episode 51 of Probable Causation: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey
“Does Proactive Policing Really Increase Major Crime? Accounting for an Ecological Fallacy” by Aaron Chalfin, David Mitre Becerril and Morgan Williams Jr.
“The Professional Motivations of Police Officers” by Aaron Chalfin & Felipe Goncalves

Episode 64: Jason Baron on foster care placement Jan 04, 2022

Jason Baron talks about how foster care placement affects future criminal justice contact.

“Is There a Foster Care-To-Prison Pipeline? Evidence from Quasi-Random Investigator Assignment” by E. Jason Baron and Max Gross. [Working paper available by request from the authors.]

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Child Protection and Child Outcomes: Measuring the Effects of Foster Care” by Joseph J. Doyle.
“Child Protection and Adult Crime: Using Investigator Assignment to Estimate Causal Effects of Foster Care” by Joseph J. Doyle.
“Building Criminal Capital Behind Bars: Peer Effects in Juvenile Corrections” by Patrick Bayer, Randi Hjalmarsson and David Pozen.
“The Causal Impact of Removing Children from Abusive and Neglectful Homes” by Anthony Bald, Eric Chyn, Justine S. Hastings, and Margarita Machelett.
“Foster Care and Child Welfare” by Kelsey Roberts.
“Temporary Stays and Persistent Gains: The Causal Effects of Foster Care” by E. Jason Baron and Max Gross.

Episode 63: Elizabeth Luh on detecting racial bias in police stops Dec 21, 2021

Elizabeth Luh talks about detecting racial bias in police stops.

“Not so Black and White: Uncovering Racial Bias from Systematically Misreported Trooper Reports” by Elizabeth Luh.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Racial Bias in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence” by John Knowles, Nicola Persico, and Petra Todd.
“A New Look at Racial Profiling: Evidence from the Boston Police Department” by Kate Antonovics and Brian G. Knight.
“An Alternative Test of Racial Prejudice in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence” by Shamina Anwar and Hanming Fang.
“A Few Bad Apples? Racial Bias in Policing” by Felipe Goncalves and Steven Mello.
“Testing for Racial Profiling in Traffic Stops From Behind a Veil of Darkness” by Jeffrey Grogger and Greg Ridgeway.
“Can Racial Bias in Policing Be Credibly Estimated Using Data Contaminated by Post-Treatment Selection?” by Dean Knox, Will Lowe, and Jonathan Mummolo.
“The Effects of Body-worn Cameras on Policing and Court Outcomes: Evidence from the Court System in Virginia” by Katie Bollman.

Episode 62: Yotam Shem-Tov on restorative justice diversion programs Dec 07, 2021

Yotam Shem-Tov talks about how a restorative justice diversion program for San Francisco youth affected recidivism.

“Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make-it-Right Program” by Yotam Shem-Tov, Steven Raphael, and Alissa Skog.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Diversion in the Criminal Justice System” by Michael Mueller-Smith and Kevin T. Schnepel.
“The Impact of Felony Diversion in San Francisco” by Elsa Augustine, Johanna Lacoe, Alissa Skog, and Steven Raphael.
“Specialization in Criminal Courts: Decision Making, Recidivism, and Re-victimization in Domestic Violence Courts in Tennessee” by Aria Golestani, Emily Owens, and Kerri Raissian.
Probable Causation, Episode 59: Kerri Raissian.
“Restorative Justice Conferences as an Early Response to Young Offenders” by Edmund F. McGarrell.
“Family Group Conferencing and Re-Offending Among First-Time Juvenile Offenders: The Indianapolis Experiment” by Edmun F. McGarrell and Natalie Kroovand Hipple.

Episode 61: Santiago Tobón on gang rule Nov 23, 2021

Santiago Tobón talks about why gangs govern particular areas, and what to do about it.

“Gang Rule: Understanding and Countering Criminal Governance” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobón.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“War Making and State Making as Organized Crime” by Charles Tilly.
“Dictatorship, Democracy, and Development” by Mancur Olson.
“Violence and Social Orders: A Conceptual Framework for Interpreting Recorded Human History” by Douglas C. North, John Joseph Wallis, and Barry R. Weingast.
“The Social Order of the Underworld: How Prison Gangs Govern the American Penal System” by David Skarbek.
“The Political Economy of Organized Crime: Providing Protection When the State Does Not” by Stergios Skaperdas.
“Gangs as Primitive States” by Stergios Skaperdas and Constantinos Syropoulos.
“Gangs of Medellín: How Organized Crime is Organized” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobón. (Working paper.)
“Market Structure and Extortion: Evidence from 50,000 Extortion Payments” by Zach Y. Brown, Eduardo Montero, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and Maria Micaela Sviatschi. (Working Paper.)
“Gangs, Labor Mobility, and Development: The Role of Extortion in El Salvador” by Nikita Melnikov, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and Maria Micaela Sviatschi.

Episode 60: Elisa Jácome on access to mental health care Nov 09, 2021

Elisa Jácome talks about how access to mental health care affects criminal behavior.

“Mental Health and Criminal Involvement: Evidence from Losing Medicaid Eligibility” by Elisa Jácome.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Homeward: Life in the Year After Prison” by Bruce Western.
“Thinking, Fast and Slow? Some Field Experiments to Reduce Crime and Dropout in Chicago” by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.
”Youth depression and future criminal behavior” by D. Mark Anderson, Resul Cesur, and Erdal Tekin.
“Substance Abuse Treatment Centers and Local Crime” by Samuel R. Bondurant, Jason M. Lindo, and Isaac D. Swensen.
”The FDA and ABCs Unintended Consequences of Antidepressant Warnings on Human Capital” by Susan Busch, Ezra Golberstein, and Ellen Meara.
”Consequences of Eliminating Federal Disability Benefits for Substance Abusers” by Pinka Chatterji and EllenMeara.
”Long-Term Consequences of Childhood ADHD on Criminal Activities” by Jason Fletcher and Barbara Wolfe.
“A Cure for Crime? Psycho-Pharmaceuticals and Crime Trends” by Dave E. Marcotte,Sara Markowitz.
”Psychiatric Disorders in Youth in Juvenile Detention” by Linda A. Teplin, Karen M. Abram, Gary M. McClelland, Mina K. Dulcan, and Amy A. Mericle.
”Access to Health Care and Criminal Behavior: Short-Run Evidence from the ACA Medicaid Expansions” by Jacob Vogler.
”The effect of medicaid expansion on crime reduction: Evidence from hifa-waiver expansions” by Hefei Wen, Jason M. Hockenberry, Janet R. Cummings.
”The Effect of Public Health Insurance on Criminal Recidivism” by Erkmen Giray Aslim, Murat C. Mungan, Carlos Navarro, and Han Yu.
”The effect of health insurance on crime: Evidence from the affordable care act medicaid expansion” by Qiwei He and Scott Barkowski.
“Local access to mental healthcare and crime” by Monica Deza, Johanna Catherine Maclean, and Keisha T. Solomon.
“The Impact of Youth Medicaid Eligibility on Adult Incarceration” by Samuel Arenberg, Seth Neller, and Sam Stripling.
“The Health Effects of Prison” by Randi Hjalmarsson and Matthew Lindquist.
Probable Causation Episode 41: Matthew Lindquist.

Episode 14: Aaron Chalfin on street lighting and crime (REBROADCAST) Oct 26, 2021

Aaron Chalfin talks about the effects of street lighting on crime. This episode was first posted in October 2019.

"Reducing Crime Through Environmental Design: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment of Street Lighting in New York City" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Jason Lerner, and Lucie Parker.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

"Keep the kids inside? Juvenile curfews and urban gun violence" by Jillian B. Carr and Jennifer L. Doleac.
"Effects of improved street lighting on crime" by Brandon C. Welsh and David P. Farrington.
"Under the cover of darkness: How ambient light influences criminal activity" by Jennifer L. Doleac and Nicholas J. Sanders.
"Crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED): A review and modern bibliography" by Paul Michael Cozens, Greg Saville, and David Hillier.
"Situational crime prevention: Theoretical background and current practice" by Ronald V. Clarke.
"Effect of remediating blighted vacant land on shootings: A citywide cluster randomized trial" by Ruth Moyer, John M. MacDonald, Greg Ridgeway, and Charles C. Branas.
"Citywide cluster randomized trial to restore blighted vacant land and its effects on violence, crime, and fear" by Charles C. Branas, Eugenia South, Michelle C. Kondo, Bernadette C. Hohl, Philippe Bourgois, Douglas J. Wiebe, and John M. MacDonald.
"Policing crime and disorder hot spots: A randomized controlled trial" by Anthony A. Braga and Brenda J. Bond.

Bonus episode: Carissa Byrne Hessick on plea bargaining Oct 19, 2021

David Eil talks with Carissa Byrne Hessick about her book, "Punishment Without Trial: Why Plea Bargaining Is a Bad Deal."

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Episode 25: Sara Heller on summer youth employment programs (REBROADCAST) Oct 12, 2021

Sara Heller talks about summer youth employment programs. This episode was first posted in March 2020.

"Summer Jobs Reduce Violence Among Disadvantaged Youth" by Sara B. Heller.
"Rethinking the Benefits of Youth Employment Programs: The Heterogeneous Effects of Summer Jobs" by Jonathan M.V. Davis and Sara B. Heller

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

"What Works? A Meta Analysis of Recent Active Labor Market Program Evaluations" by David Card, Jochen Kluve, and Andrea Weber.
"Active Labor Market Policies" by Bruno Crépon and Gerard J. van den Berg.
"Employment and Training Programs" by Robert J. LaLonde.
"The Promise of Public Sector-Sponsored Training Programs" by Robert J. LaLonde.
"The Youth Entitlement Demonstration: Subsidized Employment with a Schooling Requirement" by George Farkas, D. Alton Smith, and Ernst W. Stromsdorfer.
"A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of In-School and Summer Neighborhood Youth Corps: A Nationwide Evaluation" by Gerald G. Somers and Ernst W. Stromsdorfer.
"Summer Training and Education Program (STEP): Report on Long-Term Impacts" by Cynthia L. Sipe and Jean Baldwin Grossman.
"An Anatomy of a Demonstration: STEP from Pilot through Replication and Postprogram Impacts" by Frances Vilella-Velez and Gary Walker.
"The Summer Employment Experiences and the Personal/Social Behaviors of Youth Violence Prevention Employment Program Participants and Those of a Comparison Group" by Andrew Sum, Mykhaylo Trubskyy, and Walter McHugh.
"Enriching Summer Work: An Evaluation of the Summer Career Exploration Program" by Wendy S. McClanahan, Cynthia L. Sipe, and Thomas J. Smith.
"What Is a Summer Job Worth? The Impact of Summer Youth Employment on Academic Outcomes" by Jacob Leos-Urbel.
"Making Summer Matter: The Impact of Youth Employment on Academic Performance" by Amy Ellen Schwartz, Jacob Leos-Urbel, and Matt Wiswall.
"The Effects of Youth Employment: Evidence from New York City Lotteries" by Alexander Gelber, Adam Isen, and Judd B. Kessler.
"An Introduction to the World of Work: A Study of the Implementation and Impacts of New York City’s Summer Youth Employment Program" by Erin Jacobs Valentine, Chloe Anderson Golub, Farhana Hossain, and Rebecca Unterman.
"How Do Summer Youth Employment Programs Improve Criminal Justice Outcomes, and for Whom?" by Alicia Sasser Modestino.
"Reducing inequality summer by summer: Lessons from an evaluation of the Boston Summer Youth Employment Program" by Alicia Sasser Modestino and Richard J. Paulsen.
"School’s Out: How Summer Youth Employment Programs Impact Academic Outcomes" by Alicia Sasser Modestino and Richard Paulsen.

Episode 59: Kerri Raissian on domestic violence courts Sep 28, 2021

Kerri Raissian talks about the effects of domestic violence courts.

“Specialization in Criminal Courts: Decision Making, Recidivism, and Re-victimization in Domestic Violence Courts in Tennessee” by Aria Golestani, Emily Owens, and Kerri Raissian.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Love, Hate and Murder: Commitment Devices in Violent Relationships” by Anna Aizer and Pedro Dal Bó.
“Do Domestic Violence Courts Work? A Meta-Analytic Review Examining Treatment and Study Quality” by Leticia Gutierrez, Julie Blais, and Guy Bourgon.
“The Impact of Specialized Prosecution on the Safety of Domestic Violence Victims” by Ashna Arora, Xander Beberman, Zubin Jelveh, and Ashley Motta. (Available upon request from the authors.)
“Misdemeanor Prosecution” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, and Anna Harvey.
Probable Causation Episode 51: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey.
“Can Restorative Justice Conferencing Reduce Recidivism? Evidence From the Make-it-Right Program” by Yotam Shem-Tov, Steven Raphael, and Alissa Skog.

Episode 58: Jennifer Doleac on DNA databases Sep 14, 2021

Guest host Amanda Agan talks with Jennifer Doleac about how DNA databases affect crime and recidivism.

“The Effects of DNA Databases on the Deterrence and Detection of Offenders” by Anne Sofie Tegner Anker, Jennifer L. Doleac, and Rasmus Landersø.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“The Effects of DNA Databases on Crime” by Jennifer L. Doleac.
“The Effects of Surveillance Cameras on Crime: Evidence from the Stockholm Subway” by Mikael Priks.
“The Deterrent Effect of Surveillance Cameras on Crime” by Santiago Gómez, Daniel Mejía, Santiago Tobón.
“Crime is Terribly Revealing: Information Technology and Police Productivity” by Giovanni Mastrobuoni.
Probable Causation Episode 57: Giovanni Mastrobuoni.
“Encouraging Desistance from Crime” by Jennifer L. Doleac.

Episode 57: Giovanni Mastrobuoni on predictive policing Aug 31, 2021

Giovanni Mastrobuoni talks about how predictive policing affects crime.

“Crime is Terribly Revealing: Information Technology and Police Productivity” by Giovanni Mastrobuoni.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Self-Exciting Point Process Modeling of Crime” by G.O. Mohler, M.B. Short, P.J. Brantingham, F.P. Schoenberg, and G.E. Tita.
“Randomized Controlled Field Trials of Predictive Policing” by G.O. Mohler, M.B. Short, Sean Malinowski, Mark Johnson, G.E. Tita, Andrea L. Bertozzi, and P.J. Brantingham.
“The Effects of DNA Databases on Crime” by Jennifer Doleac.
“The Effects of DNA Databases on the Deterrence and Detection of Offenders” by Anne Sofie Anker, Jennifer Doleac, and Rasmus Landersø.
“Police Officer on the Frontline or a Soldier? The Effect of Police Militarization on Crime” by Vincenzo Bove and Evelina Gavrilova.
“Peacekeeping Force: Effects of Providing Tactical Equipment to Local Law Enforcement” by Matthew C. Harris, Jinseong Park, Donald J. Bruce, and Matthew N. Murray.
“Police Safety, Killings by the Police, and the Militarization of US Law Enforcement” by Federico Masera.
“Police Patrols and Crime” by Jordi Blanes i Vidal and Giovanni Mastrobuoni.

Episode 56: Gaurav Khanna on employment and crime in Colombia Aug 17, 2021

Gaurav Khanna talks about how incentives to engage in formal employment affect criminal behavior in Colombia.

“Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia” by Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, and Jorge Tamayo.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Negotiating Pathways to Manhood: Violence Reproduction in Medellin’s Periphery” by Adam Baird.
“Economic Shocks and Crime: Evidence from the Brazilian Trade Liberalization” by Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Rodrigo R. Soares, and Gabriel Ulyssea (Forthcoming).
“Clicking on Heaven’s Door: The Effect of Immigrant Legalization on Crime” by Paolo Pinotti.
“Effects of Colombia’s Social Protection System on Workers’ Choice between Formal and Informal Employment” by Adriana Camacho, Emily Conover, and Alejandro Hoyos.
“Assessing Health Reform in Colombia: From Theory to Practice” by Alejandro Gaviria, Carlos Medina, and Carolina Mejía.
“Labor Market Effects of Payroll Taxes in Developing Countries: Evidence from Colombia” by Adriana Kugler and Maurice Kugler.
“Do Payroll Tax Breaks Stimulate Formality? Evidence from Colombia’s Reform” by Adriana Kugler, Maurice Kugler, and Louis O. Herrera Prada (NBER Working Paper No. 23308.).
“Job Loss, Credit and Crime in Colombia” by Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, Christian Posso, and Jorge Tamayo.
“Spatial Mobility, Economic Opportunity, and Crime” by Gaurav Khanna Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, Daniel Ramos, Jorge Tamayo and Audrey Tiew.
“The Effect of Job Loss and Unemployment Insurance on Crime in Brazil” by Diogo Britto, Paolo Pinotti and Breno Sampaio.
“Gang rule: Understanding and Countering Criminal Governance" by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobón.
“Gangs, Labor Mobility, and Development” by Nikita Melnikov, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and María Micaela Sviatschi.
Probable Causation Episode 15: Mica Sviatschi
“Market Structure and Extortion: Evidence from 50,000 Extortion Payments” by Zach Y. Brown, Eduardo Montero, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, María Micaela Sviatschi.

Episode 55: Morgan Williams Jr. on the race-specific effects of policing Aug 03, 2021

Morgan Williams Jr. talks about the race-specific effects of policing.

"Police Force Size and Civilian Race" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Emily Weisburst, and Morgan Williams, Jr.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime” by Steven Levitt.
“Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime: Comment” by Justin McCrary.
“Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effects of Police on Crime: Reply” by Steven Levitt.
“COPS and Crime” by William N. Evans and Emily G. Owens.
“Safety in Police Numbers: Evidence of Police Effectiveness from Federal COPS Grant Applications” by Emily Weisburst.
“More COPS, Less Crime” by Steven Mello.
“The Effects of COPS Office Funding on Sworn Force Levels, Crime, and Arrests” by Phillip Cook, Max Kapustin, Jens Ludwig, and Douglas Miller.
“Are U.S. Cities Underpoliced? Theory and Evidence” by Aaron Chalfin and Justin McCrary.
“Misdemeanor Prosecution” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, and Anna Harvey.
Probable Causation Episode 51: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey.

Bonus episode: Hannah Walker on criminal justice contact and political participation Jul 27, 2021

David Eil talks with Hannah Walker about her book, "Mobilized by Injustice: Criminal Justice Contact, Political Participation, and Race."

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Episode 54: Carolina Arteaga on parental incarceration Jul 20, 2021

Carolina Arteaga talks about how parental incarceration affects kids' education outcomes.

“Parental Incarceration and Children’s Educational Attainment” by Carolina Arteaga.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Parental Arrest and Incarceration: How Does it Impact the Children?” by Stephen B. Billings.
“The Impact of Maternal Imprisonment on Children’s Probability of Grade Retention” by Rosa Minhyo Cho.
“The Impact of Maternal Incarceration on Children’s Educational Achievement: Results from Chicago Public Schools” by Rosa Minhyo Cho.
“The Effects of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio” by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.
“Intergenerational Effects of Incarceration” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad. [WORKING PAPER]
“The Intergenerational Effects of Parental Incarceration” by Will Dobbie, Hans Grönqvist, Susan Niknami, Mårten Palme, and Mikael Priks. [WORKING PAPER]
Probable Causation Episode 7: Jeff Weaver.

Episode 53: Heyu Xiong on how legalizing marijuana affects marijuana dealers Jul 06, 2021

Heyu Xiong talks about on how legalizing marijuana affects those with histories of selling marijuana illegally.

“Displacement in the Criminal Labor Market: Evidence from Drug Legalizations” by Heyu Xiong.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Building Criminal Capital Behind Bars: Peer Effects in Juvenile Corrections” by Patrick Bayer, Randi Hjalmarsson, and David Pozen.
“Making a Narco: Childhood Exposure to Illegal Labor Markets and Criminal Life Paths” by Maria Micaela Sviatschi.
“Drug Dealing and Legitimate Self-Employment” by Robert W. Fairlie.
“Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia” by Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, and Jorge Tamayo.
“The Violent Consequences of Trade-Induced Worker Displacement in Mexico” by Melissa Dell, Benjamin Feigenberg, and Kensuke Teshima.
“Prices, Policing and Policy: The Dynamics of Crime Booms and Busts” by Tom Kirchmaier, Stephen Machin, Matteo Sandi, and Robert Witt.

Bonus episode: Gregg Caruso on free will and punishment Jun 29, 2021

David Eil talks with Gregg Caruso about his book, "Rejecting Retributivism: Free Will, Punishment, and Criminal Justice."

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Episode 52: Katherine Eriksson on Rosenwald schools Jun 22, 2021

Katherine Eriksson talks about how access to education affected incarceration in the early 20th century.

"Education and Incarceration in the Jim Crow South: Evidence from Rosenwald Schools" by Katherine Eriksson.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“The Impact of Rosenwald Schools on Black Achievement” by Daniel Aaronson and Bhashkar Mazumder.
Probable Causation Episode 36: Ellora Derenoncourt.
“Closing the Gap? The Effect of Private Philanthropy on the Provision of African-American Schooling in the U.S. South” by Celeste Carruthers and Marianne Wanamaker.
"Moving North and into jail? The great migration and black incarceration" by Katherine Eriksson.
"Economic Consequences of the U.S. Convict Labor System" by Michael Poyker.
"Prisons and Profits: Understanding The Political Economy of Incarceration in the Postbellum American South" by Susanne Schwarz.
"The Effects of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.
Probable Causation Episode 7: Jeff Weaver.
Probable Causation Episode 9: Michael Mueller-Smith.

Episode 51: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey on misdemeanor prosecution Jun 08, 2021

Amanda Agan, Anna Harvey, and host Jennifer Doleac talk about the consequences of prosecuting defendants for nonviolent misdemeanor offenses.

"Misdemeanor Prosecution" by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, and Anna Harvey.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

Probable Causation Episode 8: Amanda Agan.
Probable Causation Episode 46: Anna Harvey.
“Punishment Without Crime: How Our Massive Misdemeanor System Traps the Innocent and Makes America More Unequal” by Alexandra Natapoff.
"The Scale of Misdemeanor Justice" by Megan Stevenson and Sandra Mayson.
"Diversion in the Criminal Justice System" by Michael Mueller-Smith and Kevin T. Schnepel.

Episode 13: Ariel White on short jail spells and subsequent voting behavior (REBROADCAST) May 25, 2021

Ariel White talks about the effect of short jail spells on subsequent voting behavior. This episode was first posted in October 2019.

"Misdemeanor Disenfranchisement? The Demobilizing Effects of Brief Jail Spells on Potential Voters" by Ariel White.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

"Turnout and Party Registration among Criminal Offenders in the 2008 General Election" by Traci Burch
"Did Disfranchisement Laws Help Elect President Bush? New Evidence on the Turnout Rates and Candidate Preferences of Florida’s Ex-Felons" by Traci Burch
"Political Consequences of the Carceral State" by Vesla M. Weaver and Amy E. Lerman
"Arresting Citizenship: The Democratic Consequences of American Crime Control" by Amy E. Lerman and Vesla M. Weaver
"Does Incarceration Reduce Voting? Evidence about the Political Consequences of Spending Time in Prison" by Alan S. Gerber, Gregory A. Huber, Marc Meredith, Daniel R. Biggers, and David J. Hendry
"The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith
"Locking Up the Vote? Evidence from Vermont on Voting from Prison" by Ariel White and Avery Nguyen

Episode 6: Manisha Shah on criminalizing sex work (REBROADCAST) May 11, 2021

Manisha Shah talks about the effects of criminalizing sex work. This episode was first posted in June 2019.

“Crimes against Morality: Unintended Consequences of Criminalizing Sex Work” by Lisa Cameron, Jennifer Muz, and Manisha Shah.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

"The Effect of Adult Entertainment Establishments on Sex Crime: Evidence from New York City" by Riccardo Ciacci and Maria Micaela Sviatschi.
"Banning the purchase of prostitution increases rape: Evidence from Sweden" by Riccardo Ciacci.
"Human Trafficking and Regulating Prostitution" by Samuel Lee and Petra Persson.
"Violence and Entry in Prostitution Markets: Implications for Prostitution Law" Samuel Lee and Petra Persson.
"Decriminalizing Indoor Prostitution: Implications for Sexual Violence and Public Health" by Scott Cunningham and Manisha Shah.
"Street Prostitution Zones and Crime" by Paul Bisschop, Stephen Kastoryano, and Bas van der Klaauw.
“Craigslist Reduced Violence Against Women” by Scott Cunningham, Gregory DeAngelo, and John Tripp.
“Income, Income Shocks, and Transactional Sex” by Katherine LoPiccalo, Jonathan Robinson, and Ethan Yeh.
“Transactional Sex as a Response to Risk in Western Kenya” by Jonathan Robinson and Ethan Yeh.

Episode 50: Desmond Ang on the effects of police violence Apr 27, 2021

Desmond Ang talks about how police violence affects local students' academic achievement and well-being.

"The Effects of Police Violence on Inner-City Students" by Desmond Ang.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Violence and Vigilance: The Acute Effects of Community Violent Crime on Sleep and Cortisol” by Jennifer A. Heissel, Patrick T. Sharkey, Gerard Torrats-Espinosa, Kathryn Grant, and Emma K. Adam.
“The Acute Effect of Local Homicides on Children’s Cognitive Performance” by Patrick Sharkey.
“High Stakes in the Classroom, High Stakes on the Street: The Effects of Community Violence on Students’ Standardized Test Performance” by Patrick Sharkey, Amy Ellen Schwartz, Ingrid Gould Ellen, and Johanna Lacoe.
“The Effect of Local Violence on Children’s Attention and Impulse Control” by Patrick T. Sharkey, Nicole Tirado Strayer, Andrew V. Papachristos, and C. Cybele Raver.
Kerner Commission, Report of the National Advisory Commission on Civil Disorders.
“Police killings and their spillover effects on the mental health of black Americans: a population-based, quasi-experimental study” by Jacob Bor, Atheendar S. Venkataramani, David R. Williams, Alexander C. Tsai.
“Police Violence and Citizen Crime Reporting in the Black Community” by Matthew Desmond, Andrew V. Papachristos, and David S. Kirk.
“Police Shootings, Civic Unrest and Student Achievement: Evidence from Ferguson” by Seth Gershenson and Michael S. Hayes.
“The Effect of Community Traumatic Events on Student Achievement: Evidence from the Beltway Sniper Attacks” by Seth Gershenson and Erdal Tekin.
“Police Brutality and Public Perceptions of Racial Discrimination: A Tale of Two Beatings” by Lee Sigelman, Susan Welch, Timothy Bledsoe, and Michael Combs.
“Police Repression and Protest Behavior: Evidence from Student Protests in Chile” by Felipe González and Mounu Prem.
"Do Police Brutality Stories Reduce 911 Calls? Reassessing an Important Criminological Finding" by Michael Zoorob.
"Civic Responses to Police Violence" by Desmond Ang and John Tebes.

Episode 49: Michael Makowsky on the minimum wage, EITC, and recidivism Apr 13, 2021

Michael Makowsky talks about how increasing hourly wages, through the minimum wage and EITC, affects recidivism.

"The Minimum Wage, EITC, and Criminal Recidivism" by Amanda Agan and Michael Makowsky.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Good Jobs and Recidivism” by Kevin Schnepel.
“Local Labor Markets and Criminal Recidivism” by Crystal S. Yang.
"Impacts of minimum wages: review of the international evidence" by Arindrajit Dube.
"Myth or Measurement: What Does the New Minimum Wage Research Say about Minimum Wages and Job Loss in the United States?" By David Neumark and Peter Shirley.
"The Minimum Wage and Crime" by Andrew Beauchamp and Stacey Chan.
"Encouraging Desistance from Crime" by Jennifer Doleac.
"The Minimum Wage and the Great Recession: Evidence of Effects on the Employment and Income Trajectories of Low-Skilled Workers" by Jeffrey Clemens and Michael Wither.
"Effects of the Minimum Wage on Employment Dynamics" by Jonathan Meer and Jeremy West.
"Credible Research Designs for Minimum Wage Studies" by Sylvia Allegreto, Arindrajit Dube, Michael Reich, and Ben Zipperer.
"Can Economic Policies Reduce Deaths of Despair?" by William H. Dow, Anna Godøy, Christopher A. Lowenstein, and Michael Reich.
"Jobs, News and Reoffending after Incarceration" by Roberto Galbiati, Aurélie Ouss, and Arnaud Philippe.
"Understanding 'Wage Theft': Evasion and Avoidance Responses to Minimum Wage Increases" by Jeffrey Clemens and Michael R. Strain.
"Diversion in the Criminal Justice System" by Michael Mueller-Smith and Kevin T. Schnepel.
Probable Causation Episode 5: Kevin Schnepel.
Probable Causation Bonus Episode 6: David Skarbek.

Episode 48: Cody Tuttle on SNAP benefits and recidivism Mar 30, 2021

Cody Tuttle talks about how banning people with criminal records from receiving SNAP benefits affects recidivism.

"Snapping Back: Food Stamp Bans and Criminal Recidivism" by Cody Tuttle.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Capitalizing on Nonrandom Assignment to Treatments: A Regression-Discontinuity Evaluation of a Crime-Control Program” by Richard A. Berk and David Rauma.
“Crime and Poverty: Some Experimental Evidence From Ex-Offenders.” by Richard A. Berk, Kenneth J. Lenihan, and Peter H. Rossi.
“Transitional Aid for Released Prisoners: Evidence from the Life Experiment” by Charles D. Mallar and Craig V.D. Thornton.
“Good Jobs and Recidivism” by Kevin Schnepel.
“Local Labor Markets and Criminal Recidivism” by Crystal S. Yang.
"Does federal financial aid affect college enrollment? Evidence from drug offenders and the Higher Education Act of 1998" by Michael F. Lovenheim and Emily G. Owens.
"First-day criminal recidivism" by Ignacio Munyo and Martín A. Rossi.
"SNAP Benefits and Crime: Evidence from Changing Disbursement Schedules" by Jillian Carr & Analisa Packham.
Probable Causation Episode 28: Jillian Carr.
"Does Public Assistance Reduce Recidivism?" by Crystal S. Yang.
“A Quasi-Experimental Evaluation of the Impact of Public Assistance on Prisoner Recidivism.” by Jeremy Luallen, Jared Edgerton, and Deirdre Rabideau.
"Does emergency financial assistance reduce crime?" by Caroline Palmer, David Phillips, and James Sullivan.
Probable Causation Episode 34: David Phillips.
"The Effect of Public Health Insurance on Criminal Recidivism" by Erkmen Aslim, Murat Mungan, Carlos Navarro, and Han Yu.
"No Credit For Time Served? Incarceration and Credit-Driven Crime Cycles" by Abhay Aneja and Carlos Avenancio-Leon.

Episode 47: Greg Midgette on the 24/7 Sobriety program Mar 16, 2021

Greg Midgette talks about the effects of 24/7 Sobriety — a program for defendants with alcohol-related offenses, based on swift-certain-fair principles.

“Criminal Deterrence: Evidence from an Individual‐Level Analysis of 24/7 Sobriety” by Beau Kilmer and Greg Midgette.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“When Brute Force Fails: How to Have Less Crime and Less Punishment” by Mark A.R. Kleiman.
"The Efficacy of the Rio Hondo DUI Court: A 2-Year Field Experiment" by John M. MacDonald, Andrew R. Morral, Barbara Raymond, and Christine Eibner.
”Punishment and deterrence: Evidence from Drunk Driving” by Benjamin Hansen.
“Efficacy of Frequent Monitoring with Swift, Certain, and Modest Sanctions for Violations: Insights from South Dakota’s 24/7 Sobriety Project” by Beau Kilmer, Nancy Nicosia, Paul Heaton, and Greg Midgette.
"Can a criminal justice alcohol abstention programme with swift, certain, and modest sanctions (24/7 Sobriety) reduce population mortality? A retrospective observational study" by Nancy Nicosia, Beau Kilmer, and Paul Heaton.
“Paying the Tab: The Costs and Benefits of Alcohol Control” by Philip J. Cook.
"Managing Drug Involved Probationers with Swift and Certain Sanctions: Evaluating Hawaii's HOPE." by Angela Hawken and Mark A. R. Kleiman.
"Washington Intensive Supervision Program: Evaluation Report" by Angela Hawken and Mark A. R. Kleiman.
"HOPE II: A Follow-up to Hawaii`s HOPE Evaluation" by Angela Hawken, Jonathan Kulick, Kelly Smith, Jie Mei, Yiwen Zhang, Sara Jarman, Travis Yu, Chris Carson, and Tifanie Vial.
"Outcome Findings from the HOPE Demonstration Field Experiment: Is Swift, Certain, and Fair an Effective Supervision Strategy?" by Pamela K. Lattimore, Doris Layton MacKenzie, Gary Zajac, Debbie Dawes, Elaine Arsenault, and Stephen Tueller.
“Managing Pretrial Misconduct: An Experimental Evaluation of HOPE Pretrial" by Janet Davidson, George King, Jens Ludwig, and Steven Raphael.
”A Natural Experiment to Test the Effect of Sanction Certainty and Celerity on Substance-Impaired Driving: North Dakota's 24/7 Sobriety Program” by Greg Midgette, Beau Kilmer, Nancy Nicosia, and Paul Heaton.

Bonus episode: Erin Kelly on punishment and responsibility Mar 09, 2021

David Eil talks with Erin Kelly about her book, "The Limits of Blame: Rethinking Punishment and Responsibility."

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER ITEMS WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

Judge statement in sentencing of Larry Nasser

Episode 46: Anna Harvey on reducing racial disparities in crime victimization Mar 02, 2021

Anna Harvey talks about how court-ordered affirmative action in police departments affected racial disparities in crime victimization.

“Reducing Racial Disparities in Crime Victimization: Evidence from Employment Discrimination Litigation” by Anna Harvey and Taylor Mattia.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

"Are U.S. Cities Underpoliced? Theory and Evidence" by Aaron Chalfin and Justin McCrary.
"COPS and crime" by William N. Evans and Emily G. Owens.
"Using Terror Alert Levels to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime" by Jonathan Klick and Alexander Tabarrok.
"The Effect of Police Response Time on Crime Clearance Rates" by Jordi Blanes i Vidal and Tom Kirchmaier.
"The Relationship Between Crime Reporting and Police: Implications for the Use of Uniform

Crime Reports" by Steven Levitt.
"The Effect of Court-Ordered Hiring Quotas on the Composition and Quality of Police" by Justin McCrary.
"Does Temporary Affirmative Action Produce Persistent Effects? A Study of Black and Female Employment in Law Enforcement" by Amalia R. Miller and Carmit Segal.
"Do Female Officers Improve Law Enforcement Quality? Effects on Crime Reporting and Domestic Violence" by Amalia R. Miller and Carmit Segal.
"Police Force Size and Civilian Race" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Emily K. Weisburst, and Morgan C. Williams, Jr.

Episode 45: Conrad Miller on racial disparities in sentencing Feb 16, 2021

Conrad Miller talks about how local racial composition affects punishment severity in the criminal justice system.

"Racial Divisions and Criminal Justice: Evidence from Southern State Courts" by Benjamin Feigenberg and Conrad Miller.

***

Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Public Goods and Ethnic Divisions” by Alberto Alesina, Reza Baqir, and William Easterly.
“Reassessing the Racial Divide in Support for Capital Punishment: The Continuing Significance of Race” by James Unnever and Francis Cullen.
“Racial Disparities in Incarceration Increase Acceptance of Punitive Policies” by Rebecca C. Hetey and Jennifer L. Eberhardt.
“The Judge, the Politician, and the Press: Newspaper Coverage and Criminal Sentencing across Electoral Systems” by Claire S.H. Lim, James M. Snyder Jr., and David Strömberg.
"Who Watches the Watchmen? Local News and Police Behavior in the United States" by Nicola Mastrorocco and Arianna Ornaghi.
Probable Causation Episode 44: Arianna Ornaghi
"Local Crime News Bias: Extent, Causes and Consequences" by Jonathan Moreno-Medina.
"Can you move to opportunity? Evidence from the Great Migration" by Ellora Derenoncourt.
Probable Causation Episode 36: Ellora Derenoncourt
"Racial Disparity in Federal Criminal Sentences" by M. Marit Rehavi and Sonja B. Starr.
"A Few Bad Apples? Racial Bias in Policing" by Felipe Goncalves & Steven Mello.
"Racial Disparities in the Acquisition of Juvenile Arrest Records" by Steven Raphael and Sandra V. Rozo.
"If You Give a Judge a Risk Score: Evidence from Kentucky Bail Decisions" by Alex Albright.

Bonus episode: Sarah Brayne on police surveillance Feb 09, 2021

David Eil talks with Sarah Brayne about her book, "Predict and Surveil: Data, Discretion, and the Future of Policing."

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Episode 44: Arianna Ornaghi on how local news coverage affects policing Feb 02, 2021

Arianna Ornaghi talks about how local news coverage of crime affects policing.

"Who Watches the Watchmen? Local News and Police Behavior in the United States" by Nicola Mastrorocco and Arianna Ornaghi.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“The Judge, the Politician, and the Press: Newspaper Coverage and Criminal Sentencing across Electoral Systems” by Claire S.H. Lim, James M. Snyder Jr., and David Strömberg.
“Conservative News Media and Criminal Justice: Evidence from Exposure to Fox News Channel” by Elliott Ash and Michael Poyker.
“No Hatred or Malice, Fear or Affection: Media and sentencing" by Aurélie Ouss and Arnaud Phillippe.
“The Effect of Police Oversight on Crime and Allegations of Misconduct: Evidence from Chicago” by Bocar A. Ba and Roman Rivera.
“Intensified Scrutiny and Bureaucratic Effort: Evidence from Policing After High-Profile, Officer-Involved Fatalities” by Deepak Premkumar.
“Policing the Police: The Impact of ‘Pattern-or Practice’ Investigations on Crime” by Tanaya Devi and Roland G. Fryer Jr.

Episode 43: Elizabeth Linos on police recruiting Jan 19, 2021

Elizabeth Linos talks about how to recruit more and different people to become police officers.

"More Than Public Service: A Field Experiment on Job Advertisements and Diversity in the Police" by Elizabeth Linos.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

"Behavioral Insights for Building the Police Force of Tomorrow" by Joanna Weill, Elizabeth Linos, Siddharth Mandava, Cecily Wallman-Stokes, and Jacob Appel.
"Thick Red Tape and the Thin Blue Line: A Field Study on Reducing Administrative Burden in Police Recruitment" by Elizabeth Linos and Nefara Riesch.
"A head for hiring: The behavioural science of recruitment and selection" by Elizabeth Linos and Joanne Reinhard.

Episode 16: Stephen Billings on lead and crime (REBROADCAST) Jan 05, 2021

Stephen Billings talks about the long-term effects of early interventions for children exposed to lead. This episode was first posted in November 2019.

"Life after Lead: Effects of Early Interventions for Children Exposed to Lead" by Stephen B. Billings and Kevin T. Schnepel.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: