Probable Causation

Latest Episodes:

Episode 128: Diogo Britto on job loss and criminal behavior in Brazil Sep 22, 2026

Show notes

Diogo Britto talks about how job loss affects criminal behavior in Brazil.

“The Effect of Job Loss and Unemployment Insurance on Crime in Brazil” by Diogo Britto, Paolo Pinotti, and Breno Sampaio.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Crime and the Labour Market" by Richard B. Freeman.
“Job Displacement, Unemployment, and Crime: Evidence From Danish Microdata and Reforms" by Patrick Bennett and Amine Ouazad.
“Job Displacement and Crime: Evidence From Norwegian Register Data” by Mari Rege, Torbjørn Skardhamar, Kjetil Telle, and Mark Votruba.
“The Effects of Job Loss on Crime: Evidence From Administrative Data" by Evan Rose.
“Job Loss, Credit, and Crime in Colombia" by Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, Christian Posso, and Jorge Tamayo.
"Snapping Back: Food Stamp Bans and Criminal Recidivism" by Cody Tuttle.
Probable Causation Episode 48: Cody Tuttle.
"Does Public Assistance Reduce Recidivism?" by Crystal S. Yang.
"Does Welfare Prevent Crime? The Criminal Justice Outcomes of Youth Removed from SSI" by Manasi Deshpande and Michael Mueller-Smith.
Probable Causation Episode 72: Manasi Deshpande.
"Cash Transfers and Violent Crime in Indonesia" by Elías Cisneros, Krisztina Kis-Katos, Jan Priebe, and Lennart Reiners.
"Job Displacement, Unemployment Benefits and Domestic Violence" by Sonia Bhalotra, Diogo Britto, Paolo Pinotti, and Breno Sampaio.

Want more?

Check out my new book! The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice is available now.

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Episode 127: Manisha Shah on reducing intimate partner violence among young people in Tanzania Jun 30, 2026

Show notes

Manisha Shah talks about reducing intimate partner violence among young people in Tanzania.

"Sex, Power, and Adolescence: Intimate Partner Violence and Sexual Behaviors" by Manisha Shah, Jennifer Seager, Joao Montalvao, and Markus Goldstein.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Income Changes and Intimate Partner Violence: Evidence from Unconditional Cash Transfers in Kenya" by Johannes Haushofer, Charlotte Ringdal, Jeremy P. Shapiro, and Xiao Yu Wang.
“The Eﬀect of Cash, Vouchers, and Food Transfers on Intimate Partner Violence: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment in Northern Ecuador” by Melissa Hidrobo, Amber Peterman and Lori Heise.
“Love on the Rocks: Domestic Violence and Alcohol Abuse in Rural Mexico” by Manuela Angelucci.
“Public Transfers and Domestic Violence: The Roles of Private Information and Spousal Control" by Gustavo J. Bobonis, Melissa González-Brenes, and Roberto Castro.
“For Better or For Worse?: Education and the Prevalence of Domestic Violence in Turkey” by Bilge Erten and Pinar Keskin.
“Love, hate and murder: Commitment devices in violent relationships” by Anna Aizer and Pedro Dal Bó.
“The Gender Wage Gap and Domestic Violence" by Anna Aizer.
“Advancing the Agency of Adolescent Girls” by Eric Edmonds, Ben Feigenberg, and Jessica Leight.
“Reshaping Adolescents’ Gender Attitudes: Evidence from a School-Based Experiment in India" by Diva Dhar, Tarun Jain and Seema Jayachandran.
“Effective prevention of intimate partner violence through couples training: a randomised controlled trial of Indashyikirwa in Rwanda" by Kristin Dunkle, Erin Stern, Sangeeta Chatterji, and Lori Heise.
“Effect of a structural intervention for the prevention of intimate-partner violence and HIV in rural South Africa: a cluster randomised trial” by Paul M. Pronyk, James R. Hargreaves, Julia C. Kim, Linda A. Morison, Godfrey Phetla, Charlotte Watts, Joanna Busza, and John D.H. Porter.
“Transfers, Behavior Change Communication, and Intimate Partner Violence: Postprogram Evidence from Rural Bangladesh" by Shalini Roy, Melissa Hidrobo, John Hoddinott, and Akhter Ahmed.
“Theoretical Underpinnings and Meta-analysis of the Eﬀects of Cash Transfers on Intimate Partner Violence in Low-and Middle-Income Countries" by Victoria Baranov, Lisa Cameron, Diana Contreras Suarez and Claire Thibout.
"A rigorous global evidence review of interventions to prevent violence against women and girls" by Alice Kerr-Wilson, Andrew Gibbs, Erika McAslan Fraser, Leanne Ramsoomar, Anna Parke, Hussaind M.A. Khuwaja, and Rachel Jewkes.
"Guy Talk: Catalyzing Peer Effects on IPV through Virtual Support Groups for Men" by Christopher Boyer, Erica Field, Rachel Lehrer, Andrew Morrison, and Claudia Piras.
"Multifaceted Programs Targeting Women In Fragile Settings: Evidence from the Democratic Republic of Congo" by Manuela Angelucci, Rachel Heath, and Eva Noble.
"Harm and Harmony" by Siwan Anderson and Chris Bidner.

Want more?

Check out my new book! The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice is available now.

I have a Substack! Sign up for Probable Causation: The Newsletter.

Episode 126: Juan Vargas on the unintended consequences of an anti-drug policy in Colombia Jun 02, 2026

Show notes

Juan Vargas talks about the unintended consequences of an anti-drug policy in Colombia.

"The Rise and Persistence of Illegal Crops: Evidence from a Naive Policy Announcement" by Mounu Prem, Juan F. Vargas, and Daniel Mejía.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Inside the war on drugs: Effectiveness and unintended consequences of a large illicit crops eradication program in Colombia" by Alberto Abadie, Maria C. Acevedo, Maurice Kugler, and Juan Vargas.
“Estimating the causal effect of forced eradication on coca cultivation in Colombian municipalities" by Luis Carlos Reyes.
“On the effects of enforcement on illegal markets: Evidence from a quasi-experiment in Colombia" by Daniel Mejía, Pascual Restrepo, and Sandra V. Rozo.
“Bushes and bullets: Illegal cocaine markets and violence in Colombia" by Daniel Mejía and Pascual Restrepo.
“Rural windfall or a new resource curse? Coca, income, and civil conflict in Colombia" by Joshua D. Angrist and Adriana D. Kugler.
“A geography of illicit crops (coca leaf) and armed conflict in Colombia" by Ana María Díaz and Fabio Sánchez.
“The health consequences of aerial spraying illicit crops: The case of Colombia" by Adriana Camacho and Daniel Mejía.
“Deforestation and Coca Cultivation Rooted in Twentieth-Century Development Projects" by Liliana M. Dávalos, Karina M. Sanchez, and Dolors Armenteras.
"Making a Narco: Childhood Exposure to Illegal Labor Markets and Criminal Life Paths" by Maria Micaela Sviatschi.
"Coca-Based Local Growth and Its Socio-Economic Impact in Colombia" by Lucas Marín Llanes, Manuel Fernández Sierra, María Alejandra Vélez, Eduard F. Martínez-González, and Paulo Jose Murillo-Sandoval.
"Cocaine Goes Bananas: Global Spillovers from an Illicit Supply Shock" by Gianmarco Daniele, Adam Soliman, and Juan F. Vargas.

Want more?

Check out my new book! The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice is available now.

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Episode 125: David Phillips on the effects of free public transit May 05, 2026

Show notes

David Phillips talks about the effects of providing free public transit.

"Eliminating Fares to Expand Opportunities: Experimental Evidence on the Impacts of Free Public Transportation on Economic and Social Disparities" by Rebecca Brough, Matthew Freedman, and David C. Phillips.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Getting to Work: Experimental Evidence on Job Search and Transportation Costs" by David C. Phillips.
“Public Transit and the Spatial Distribution of Minority Employment: Evidence from a Natural Experiment" by Harry Holzer, John Quigley, and Steven Raphael.
“The Effects of the Announcement and Opening of Light Rail Transit Stations on Neighborhood Crime" by Stephen Billings, Suzanne Leland, and David Swindell.
"Means-Tested Public Transportation Subsidies: Causal Evidence and Implications" by Seoyoon Ahn, Matthew Freedman, David Phillips, and Atheendar Venkataramani.
“The Role of the Fare in Welfare: Public Transportation Subsidies and Their Effects on Low-Income Households" by Seth Chizeck and Oluchi Mbonu.
“Do Free and Discounted Fares Increase Transit Use, Well-being, and Employment for Low-Income Residents? Evidence from a Pilot Program in Washington, DC" by Alyssa Huberts, Roxanne Oroxom, Kayleigh B. Campbell, Katherine N. Gan, Danielle Moore, and Sam Quinney.

Want more?

Check out my new book! The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice is available now.

Bonus episode 16: Jennifer Doleac and Kathryn Paige Harden in conversation about their new books Apr 07, 2026

Show notes

Jennifer Doleac and Kathryn Paige Harden have a conversation about their new books, both about crime and punishment.

Jen’s book: The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice.

Paige’s book: Original Sin: On the Genetics of Vice, the Problem of Blame, and the Future of Forgiveness.

Jennifer Doleac is the Executive Vice President of Criminal Justice at Arnold Ventures.

Paige Harden is a Professor of Psychology at the University of Texas at Austin.

Episode 124: Steeve Marchand on the effects of prison programs Mar 10, 2026

Show notes

Steeve Marchand talks about the effects of prison programs on behavior.

"Prison Rehabilitation Programs and Recidivism: Evidence from Variations in Availability" by William Arbour, Guy Lacroix, and Steeve Marchand.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.
“Does incarceration length affect labor market outcomes?” by Rasmus Landersø.
“Incarceration, recidivism, and employment" by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad.
“Tough on young offenders: Harmful or helpful?” by Giulia Lotti.
“Leave the door open? Prison conditions and recidivism" by Giovanni Mastrobuoni and Daniele Terlizzese.
“Do better prisons reduce recidivism? Evidence from a prison construction program" by Santigo Tobón.
“'Something Works' in U.S. Jails: Misconduct and Recidivism Effects of the IGNITE Program” by Marcella Alsan, Arkey Barnett, Peter Hull, and Crystal Yang.
Probable Causation Episode 113: Peter Hull
"Can prisons move people into better jobs? A look at correctional vocational training programs and sectoral employment outcomes" by Britte van Tiem.
"Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour.
Probable Causation Episode 102: William Arbour
"Encouraging Desistance from Crime" by Jennifer Doleac.

Want more?

Check out my new book! The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice is available now.

I have a Substack! Sign up for Probable Causation: The Newsletter.

Episode 123: Ezra Golberstein on school-based mental health services Feb 10, 2026

Show notes

Ezra Golberstein talks about the impacts of school-based mental health services.

"Effects of School-Based Mental Health Services on Youth Outcomes" by Ezra Golberstein, Irina Zainullina, Aaron Sojourner, and Mark A. Sander.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

"Investing in Children to Address the Child Mental Health Crisis" by Janet Currie.
“The FDA and ABCs: Unintended Consequences of Antidepressant Warnings on Human Capital" by Susan H. Busch, Ezra Golberstein, and Ellen Meara.
“The Rate of Return to the HighScope Perry Preschool Program" by James J. Heckman, Seong Hyeok Moon, Rodrigo Pinto, Peter A. Savelyev, and Adam Yavitz.

Want more?

Check out my new book! The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice comes out February 24th, and is available for pre-order now.

Episode 104: Oeindrila Dube on cognitive behavioral training for police (REBROADCAST) Jan 13, 2026

Show notes

Check out my new book!

The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice

In this episode of Probable Causation:

Oeindrila Dube talks about a cognitive behavioral training program for police. This episode was first posted in April 2024.

“A Cognitive View of Policing” by Oeindrila Dube, Sandy Jo MacArthur, and Anuj Shah.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

"Thinking, fast and slow? Some field experiments to reduce crime and dropout in Chicago" by Sara B. Heller, Anuj K. Shah, Jonathan Guryan, Jens Ludwig, Sendhil Mullainathan, and Harold A. Pollack.

"Can You Build a Better Cop?" by Emily Owens, David Weisburd, Karen L. Amendola, and Geoffrey P. Alpert.

"The Impacts of Implicit Bias Awareness Training in the NYPD" by Robert E. Worden, Sarah J. McLean, Robin S. Engel, Hannah Cochran, Nicholas Corsaro, Danielle Reynolds, Cynthia J. Najdowski, and Gabrielle T. Isaza.

"The impact of implicit bias-oriented diversity training on police officers’ beliefs, motivations, and actions" by Calvin K. Lai and Jaclyn A. Lisnek.

"Does De-escalation Training Work?" by Robin S. Engel, Hannah D. McManus, and Tamara D. Herold.

"Assessing the Impact of De-escalation Training on Police Behavior: Reducing Police Use of Force in the Louisville, KY Metro Police Department" by Robin S. Engel, Nicholas Corsaro, Gabrielle T. Isaza, and Hannah D. McManus.

“Reducing crime and violence: Experimental evidence from cognitive behavioral therapy in Liberia” by Christopher Blattman, Julian C. Jamison, and Margaret Sheridan.

"Can Recidivism Be Prevented From Behind Bars? Evidence From a Behavioral Program" by William Arbour.

Probable Causation Episode 102: William Arbour

"Peer Effects in Police Use of Force" by Justin E. Holz, Roman G. Rivera, and Bocar A. Ba.

"The Effect of Field Training Officers on Police Use of Force" by Chandon Adger, Matthew Ross, and CarlyWill Sloan.

Probable Causation Episode 90: Matthew Ross

Want more? Visit our website! https://www.probablecausation.com/

Episode 122: Vijetha Koppa on Lethality Assessment Programs Dec 16, 2025

Show notes

Vijetha Koppa talks about Lethality Assessment Programs used by police in domestic violence incidents.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

"Does the Certainty of Arrest Reduce Domestic Violence? Evidence from Mandatory and Recommended Arrest Laws" by Radha Iyengar.
"Revisiting the Effect of Warrantless Domestic Violence Arrest Laws on Intimate Partner Homicides" by Yoo Mi Chin and Scott Cunningham.
"Deterrence or Backlash? Arrests and the Dynamics of Domestic Violence" by Sofia Amaral, Gordon B. Dahl, Victoria Endl-Geyer, Timo Hener, and Helmut Rainer.
"Improving Batterer Intervention Programs Through Theory-Based Research" by Gregory L. Stuart, Jeff R. Temple, and Todd M. Moore.
"Batterer Intervention Programs: A Report From the Field" by Bethany J. Price and Alan Rosenbaum.
“The next Generation of Court-Mandated Domestic Violence Treatment: A Comparison Study of Batterer Intervention and Restorative Justice Programs" by Linda G. Mills, Briana Barocas, and Barak Ariel.
"The Oklahoma Lethality Assessment Study: A Quasi-Experimental Evaluation of the Lethality Assessment Program" by Jill T. Messing, Jacquelyn Campbell, Daniel W. Webster, Sheryll Brown, Beverly Patchell, and Janet Sullivan Wilson.
"Criminal Charges, Risk Assessment, and Violent Recidivism in Cases of Domestic Abuse" by Dan A. Black, Jeffrey Grogger, Tom Kirchmaier, and Koen Sanders.
"Policing in Patriarchy: An Experimental Evaluation of Reforms to Improve Police Responsiveness to Women in India" by Sandip Sukhtankar, Gabriele Kruks-Wisner, and Akshay Mangla.
"Gender, Crime and Punishment: Evidence from Women Police Stations in India" by Sofia Amaral, Sonia R. Bhalotra, and Nishith Prakash.
"Gender Violence, Enforcement, and Human Capital: Evidence from Women’s Justice Centers in Peru" by Sviatschi, Maria Micaela, and Iva Trako.
"Female Political Representation and Violence Against Women: Evidence from Brazil" by Magdalena Delaporte and Francisco Pino.

Episode 121: Peter Blair on occupational licenses as information about criminal records Nov 18, 2025

Show notes

Peter Blair talks about occupational licenses as information about criminal records.

“Job Market Signaling through Occupational Licensing” by Peter Q. Blair and Bobby W. Chung.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“The Prevalence and Effects of Occupational Licensing" by Morris M. Kleiner and Alan B. Krueger.
“Analyzing the Extent and Influence of Occupational Licensing on the Labor Market" by Morris M. Kleiner and Alan B. Krueger.
“A Welfare Analysis of Occupational Licensing in U.S. States" by Morris M. Kleiner and Evan J. Soltas.
“How Much of Barrier to Entry is Occupational Licensing?” by Peter Q. Blair and Bobby W. Chung.
“The unintended consequences of 'ban the box': Statistical discrimination and employment outcomes when criminal histories are hidden" by Jennifer L. Doleac and Benjamin Hansen.
“Does Job Testing Harm Minority Workers? Evidence from Retail Establishments" by David H. Autor and David Scarborough.
“Job Market Signaling" by Michael Spence.

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