Probable Causation

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Society & Culture
**Probable Causation**

A show about law, economics, and crime. Hosted by Jennifer Doleac, economist and author of The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice.

Latest Episodes:

Episode 20: J.J. Prescott on sex offender registries Jan 07, 2020

Show notes

J.J. Prescott talks about sex offender registries.

"Do Sex Offender Registration and Notification Laws Affect Criminal Behavior?" by J.J. Prescott and Jonah E. Rockoff.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

Legislation Targeting Sex Offenders: Are Recent Policies Effective in Reducing Rape? by Alissa R. Ackerman, Meghan Sacks and David F. Greenberg.
The Iowa Sex Offender Registry and Recidivism by Geneva Adkins, David Huff, and Paul Stageberg.
Sex Offender Registries: Fear without Function? by Amanda Y. Agan.
Sex Offender Law and the Geography of Victimization by J. J. Prescott and Amanda Y. Agan.
Time-Series Analyses of the Impact of Sex Offender Registration and Notification Law Implementation and Subsequent Modifications on Rates of Sexual Offenses by Jeff A. Bouffard and LaQuana N. Askew.
The Effect of Sex Offender Registries on Recidivism: Evidence from a Natural Experiment by Jillian B. Carr.
The Impact of Megan’s Law on Sex Offender Recidivism: The Minnesota Experience by

Grant Duwe and William Donnay.
The Public Safety Impact of Community Notification Laws: Rearrest of Convicted Sex Offenders by Naomi J. Freeman.
Juvenile Registration and Notification Policy Effects: A Multistate Evaluation Project by Elizabeth J. Letourneau, Jeffery Sandler, Donna Vandiver, Ryan Shields, and Reshmi Nair.
Failure to Register as a Sex Offender: Is it Associated with Recidivism? Jill Levenson, Elizabeth Letourneau, Kevin Armstrong, and Kristen Marie Zgoba.
Failure-to-Register Laws and Public Safety: An Examination of Risk Factors and Sex Offense Recidivism by Jill Levenson, Jeffrey Sandler, and Naomi Freeman.
Community Protection Policies and Repeat Sexual Offenses in Florida by Jill S. Levenson and Kristen M. Zgoba.
Utilizing Criminal History Information to Explore the Effect of Community Notification on Sex Offender Recidivism by Sean Maddan, J. Mitchell Miller, Jeffery T. Walker, and Ineke Haen Marshall.
A Time-Series Analysis of the Effectiveness of Sex Offender Notification Laws in the USA by Kimberly Maurelli and George Ronan.
Does a Watched Pot Boil? A Time-Series Analysis of New York State's Sex Offender Registration and Notification Law by Jeffrey C. Sandler, Naomi J. Freeman, and Kelly M. Socia.
Juvenile Sexual Crime Reporting Rates are not Influenced by Juvenile Sex Offender Registration Policies by Jeffrey C. Sandler, Elizabeth J. Letourneau, Donna Vandiver, Ryan T. Shields, and Mark Chaffin.
Community Notification: A Study of Offender Characteristics and Recidivism by Donna D. Schram and Cheryl Darling Milloy.
“Brothers Under the Bridge”: Factors Influencing the Transience of Registered Sex Offenders in Florida by Kelly M. Socia, Jill S. Levenson, Alissa R. Ackerman, and Andrew J. Harris.
Assessing the Impact of Sex Offender Registration and Community Notification on Sex-Offending Trajectories by Richard Tewksbury and Wesley G. Jennings.
A Longitudinal Examination of Sex Offender Recidivism Prior to and Following the Implementation of SORN by Richard Tewksbury, Wesley G. Jennings, and Kristen M. Zgoba.
The Influence of Sex Offender Registration and Notification Laws in the United States: A Time-Series Analysis by Bob E. Vasquez, Sean Maddan, and Jeffery T. Walker.
Sex Offender Community Notification: Its Role in Recidivism and Offender Reintegration by Richard G. Zevitz.
Failure to Register as a Predictor of Sex Offense Recidivism: The Big Bad Wolf or a Red Herring? by Jill S. Levenson and Kristen M. Zgoba
An Analysis of the Effectiveness of Community Notification and Registration: Do the Best Intentions Predict the Best Practices? by Kristen Zgoba , Bonita M. Veysey & Melissa Dalessandro.

Episode 19: Jeremy West on racial bias in police investigations Dec 24, 2019

Show notes

Jeremy West talks about racial bias in police investigations.

"Racial Bias in Police Investigations" by Jeremy West.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

"Racial Bias in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence" by John Knowles, Nicola Persico and Petra Todd.
"An Alternative Test of Racial Prejudice in Motor Vehicle Searches: Theory and Evidence" by Shamena Anwar and Hanming Fang.
"A New Look at Racial Profiling: Evidence from the Boston Police Department" by Kate Antonovics and Brian Knight
"Testing for Racial Profiling in Traffic Stops From Behind a Veil of Darkness" by Jeffrey Grogger & Greg Ridgeway
"How Dark Is Dark? Bright Lights, Big City, Racial Profiling" by William Horrace and Shawn Rohlin.
"Endogenous Driving Behavior in Veil of Darkness Tests for Racial Profiling" by Jesse Kalinowski, Stephen L. Ross, and Matthew B. Ross.
"Learning the ropes: General experience, task-Specific experience, and the output of police officers" by Gregory DeAngelo and Emily G. Owens.
"Police Officer Experience and Racial Bias in Traffic Stops" by William Horrace, Hyunseok Jung, and Shawn Rohlin.
"Learning by Doing in Law Enforcement" by Jeremy West.
"Dirty Business: Principal-Agent Problems in Hazardous Waste Remediation" by Justin Marion and Jeremy West.
"Free at Last? Judicial Discretion and Racial Disparities in Federal Sentencing" by Crystal S. Yang.

Episode 18: Maya Rossin-Slater on the effects of violent assault during pregnancy Dec 10, 2019

Show notes

Maya Rossin-Slater talks about how violent assault during pregnancy affects birth outcomes and infant health.

"Violence While in Utero: The Impact of Assaults During Pregnancy on Birth Outcomes" by Janet Currie, Michael Mueller-Smith, and Maya Rossin-Slater.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

"Poverty, violence, and health the impact of domestic violence during pregnancy on newborn health" by Anna Aizer.
"Birth outcomes for Arabic-named women in California before and after September 11" by Diane S. Lauderdale.
"Stress and birth weight: evidence from terrorist attacks" by Adriana Camacho.
"Armed conflict and birth weight: Evidence from the al-Aqsa Intifada" by Hani Mansour and Daniel I. Rees.
"Prenatal exposure to violence and birth weight in Mexico: Selectivity, exposure, and behavioral responses" Florencia Torche and Andrés Villarreal.
"The hidden costs of war: Exposure to armed conflict and birth outcomes" by Florencia Torche and Uri Shwed.
Episode 9 of Probable Causation: Michael Mueller-Smith
"Scaring or scarring? Labour market effects of criminal victimisation" by Anna Bindler and Nadine Ketel.

Episode 17: Ana Tur-Prats on how historical family types affect intimate partner violence today Nov 26, 2019

Show notes

Ana Tur-Prats talks about how historical family types affect present-day intimate partner violence.

"Family Types and Intimate-Partner Violence: A Historical Perspective" by Ana Tur-Prats.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Domestic Violence: A Nonrandom Affair” by Helen V. Tauchen, Ann Dryden Witte, and Sharon K. Long.
“Domestic Violence: The Value of Services as Signals” by Amy Farmer and Jill Tiefenthaler.
“Bargaining in the Shadow of the Law: Divorce Laws and Family Distress” by Betsy Stevenson and Justin Wolfers,
“The Gender Wage Gap and Domestic Violence” by Anna Aizer.
“Love on the Rocks: Domestic Violence and Alcohol Abuse in Rural Mexico” by Manuela Angelucci.
“Public Transfers and Domestic Violence: The Roles of Private Information and Spousal Control” by Gustavo Bobonis, Melissa Gonzalez-Brenes. and Roberto Castro.
“Unemployment and Domestic Violence: Theory and Evidence” by Dan Anderberg, Helmut Rainer, Jonathan Wadsworth, and Tanya Wilson.
“Violence Against Women: A Cross-Cultural Analysis for Africa” by Alberto Alesina, Benedetta Brioschi, and Eliana La Ferrara.
“Jobs and Intimate Partner Violence: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Ethiopia” by Andreas Kotsadam and Espen Villanger.
“Female Empowerment and Male Backlash” by Eleonora Guarnieri Helmut Rainer.
Unemployment and Intimate-Partner Violence: A Cultural Approach by Ana Tur-Prats.
“Bride Price and Female Education” by Nava Ashraf, Natalie Bar, Nathan Nunn, and Alessandra Voena.
“Customary Norms, Inheritance, and Human Capital: Evidence from a Reform of the Matrilineal System in Ghana” by Eliana La Ferrara and Annamaria Milazzo.
“Can Policy Change Culture? Government Pension Plans and Traditional Kinship Practices” by Natalie Bau.
“Cultural Norms and Conflict-Related Sexual Violence” by Ana Tur-Prats and Eleonora Guarnieri.

Episode 16: Stephen Billings on lead and crime Nov 12, 2019

Show notes

Stephen Billings talks about the long-term effects of early interventions for children exposed to lead.

"Life after Lead: Effects of Early Interventions for Children Exposed to Lead" by Stephen B. Billings and Kevin T. Schnepel.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

"Lead Wars: The politics of science and the fate of America's children" by Gerald Markowitz and David Rosner.
"Lead exposure and behavior: Effects on antisocial and risky behavior among children and adolescents" by Jessica Wolpaw Reyes.
"Environmental policy as social policy? The impact of childhood lead exposure on crime" by Jessica Wolpaw Reyes.
"Do low levels of blood lead reduce children's future test scores?" by Anna Aizer, Janet Currie, Peter Simon, and Patrick Vivier.
"Lead and juvenile delinquency: New evidence from linked birth, school, and juvenile detention records" by Anna Aizer and Janet Currie.
"Toxic truth: Lead and fertility" by Karen Clay, Margarita Portnykh, and Edson Severnini.
"Lead exposure and violent crime in the early Twentieth Century" by James J. Feigenbaum and Christopher Muller.
"The social cost of leaded gasoline: Evidence from regulatory exemptions" by Alex Hollingsworth and Ivan Rudik.
"Flight from urban blight: lead poisoning, crime and suburbanization" by Federico Curci and Federico Masera.
Episode 1 of Probable Causation: Chloe Gibbs.

Coming soon: Interviews with book authors Nov 01, 2019

Show notes

Host Jennifer Doleac talks with David Eil about a new Probable Causation feature: interviews with book authors.

Episode 15: Mica Sviatschi on the effects of criminal gangs in El Salvador Oct 29, 2019

Show notes

Mica Sviatschi talks about the effects of criminal gangs on economic development in El Salvador.

"Gangs, Labor Mobility, and Development" by Nikita Melnikov, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and Maria Micaela Sviatschi. (Draft available from the authors upon request.)

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Legitimacy in Criminal Governance: Managing a Drug Empire from Behind Bars” by Benjamin Lessing and Graham D. Willis.
"The Logic of Violence in Drug Wars: Cartel-State Conflict in Mexico, Brazil and Colombia" by Benjamin Lessing.
“Killing in the Slums: Social Order, Criminal Governance, and Police Violence in Rio de Janeiro” by Beatriz Magaloni, Edgar Franco Vivanco, and Vanessa Melo.
The Gangs that Cost 16% of GDP
“Micro-Extortion by Gangs is Costing El Salvador Millions of Dollars a Year, $10 at a Time” by Molly O’Toole.
“Gang Rule: An Experiment in Countering Criminal Governance” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobon.
“Gangs of Medellín: How Organized Crime is Organized” by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobon. (Draft not yet available).
“The Costs of Crime and Violence: New Evidence and Insights in Latin America and the Caribbean” edited by Laura Jaitman.

Episode 14: Aaron Chalfin on street lighting and crime Oct 15, 2019

Show notes

Aaron Chalfin talks about the effects of street lighting on crime.

"Reducing Crime Through Environmental Design: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment of Street Lighting in New York City" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Jason Lerner, and Lucie Parker.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

"Keep the kids inside? Juvenile curfews and urban gun violence" by Jillian B. Carr and Jennifer L. Doleac.
"Effects of improved street lighting on crime" by Brandon C. Welsh and David P. Farrington.
"Under the cover of darkness: How ambient light influences criminal activity" by Jennifer L. Doleac and Nicholas J. Sanders.
"Crime prevention through environmental design (CPTED): A review and modern bibliography" by Paul Michael Cozens, Greg Saville, and David Hillier.
"Situational crime prevention: Theoretical background and current practice" by Ronald V. Clarke.
"Effect of remediating blighted vacant land on shootings: A citywide cluster randomized trial" by Ruth Moyer, John M. MacDonald, Greg Ridgeway, and Charles C. Branas.
"Citywide cluster randomized trial to restore blighted vacant land and its effects on violence, crime, and fear" by Charles C. Branas, Eugenia South, Michelle C. Kondo, Bernadette C. Hohl, Philippe Bourgois, Douglas J. Wiebe, and John M. MacDonald.
"Policing crime and disorder hot spots: A randomized controlled trial" by Anthony A. Braga and Brenda J. Bond.

Episode 13: Ariel White on short jail spells and subsequent voting behavior Oct 01, 2019

Show notes

Ariel White talks about the effect of short jail spells on subsequent voting behavior.

"Misdemeanor Disenfranchisement? The Demobilizing Effects of Brief Jail Spells on Potential Voters" by Ariel White.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

"Turnout and Party Registration among Criminal Offenders in the 2008 General Election" by Traci Burch
"Did Disfranchisement Laws Help Elect President Bush? New Evidence on the Turnout Rates and Candidate Preferences of Florida’s Ex-Felons" by Traci Burch
"Political Consequences of the Carceral State" by Vesla M. Weaver and Amy E. Lerman
"Arresting Citizenship: The Democratic Consequences of American Crime Control" by Amy E. Lerman and Vesla M. Weaver
"Does Incarceration Reduce Voting? Evidence about the Political Consequences of Spending Time in Prison" by Alan S. Gerber, Gregory A. Huber, Marc Meredith, Daniel R. Biggers, and David J. Hendry
"The Criminal and Labor Market Impacts of Incarceration" by Michael Mueller-Smith
"Locking Up the Vote? Evidence from Vermont on Voting from Prison" by Ariel White and Avery Nguyen

Episode 12: Michael Lovenheim on grade retention and students' criminal activity Sep 17, 2019

Show notes

Michael Lovenheim talks about how grade retention affects students' later criminal activity.

"The Effect of Grade Retention on Adult Crime: Evidence From a Test-Based Promotion Policy" by Ozkan Eren, Michael F. Lovenheim, and Naci H. Mocan.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“In school and out of trouble: The minimum dropout age and juvenile crime” by D. Mark Anderson.
“The effect of education on crime: Evidence from prison inmates, arrests, and self-reports” by Lance Lochner and Enrico Moretti.
“Priceless: The nonpecuniary benefits of schooling” by Philip Oreopolous and Kjell G. Salvanes.
“The crime reducing effect of education” by Stephen Machin, Olivier Marie, and Sunčica Vujić.
“Compulsory education and the benefits of schooling” by Melvin Stephens Jr.and Dou-Yan Yang.
“Better schools, less crime?” by David Deming.
“The effect of school choice on participants: Evidence from randomized lotteries” by Julie Berry Cullen, Brian A. Jacob, and Steven Levitt.
“The effect of grade retention on high school completion” by Brian A. Jacob and Lars Lefgren.
“How the timing of grade retention affects outcomes: Identification and estimation of time-varying treatment effects” by Jane Cooley Fruehwirth, Salvador Navarro, and Yuya Takahashi.
“Grade retention, postsecondary education, and public aid receipt” by Suh-Ruu Ou and Arthur J. Reynolds.
“The effects of test-based retention on student outcomes over time: Regression discontinuity evidence from Florida” by Guido Schwerdt, Martin R. West, and Marcus A. Winters.
“Test-based promotion policies, dropping out, and juvenile crime” by Ozkan Eren, Briggs Depew, and Stephen Barnes.
“Breaking bad: Mechanisms of social influence and the path to criminality in juvenile jails” by Megan Stevenson.

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