Probable Causation

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Society & Culture
**Probable Causation**

A show about law, economics, and crime. Hosted by Jennifer Doleac, economist and author of The Science of Second Chances: A Revolution in Criminal Justice.

Latest Episodes:

Episode 57: Giovanni Mastrobuoni on predictive policing Aug 31, 2021

Show notes

Giovanni Mastrobuoni talks about how predictive policing affects crime.

“Crime is Terribly Revealing: Information Technology and Police Productivity” by Giovanni Mastrobuoni.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

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OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Self-Exciting Point Process Modeling of Crime” by G.O. Mohler, M.B. Short, P.J. Brantingham, F.P. Schoenberg, and G.E. Tita.
“Randomized Controlled Field Trials of Predictive Policing” by G.O. Mohler, M.B. Short, Sean Malinowski, Mark Johnson, G.E. Tita, Andrea L. Bertozzi, and P.J. Brantingham.
“The Effects of DNA Databases on Crime” by Jennifer Doleac.
“The Effects of DNA Databases on the Deterrence and Detection of Offenders” by Anne Sofie Anker, Jennifer Doleac, and Rasmus Landersø.
“Police Officer on the Frontline or a Soldier? The Effect of Police Militarization on Crime” by Vincenzo Bove and Evelina Gavrilova.
“Peacekeeping Force: Effects of Providing Tactical Equipment to Local Law Enforcement” by Matthew C. Harris, Jinseong Park, Donald J. Bruce, and Matthew N. Murray.
“Police Safety, Killings by the Police, and the Militarization of US Law Enforcement” by Federico Masera.
“Police Patrols and Crime” by Jordi Blanes i Vidal and Giovanni Mastrobuoni.

Episode 56: Gaurav Khanna on employment and crime in Colombia Aug 17, 2021

Show notes

Gaurav Khanna talks about how incentives to engage in formal employment affect criminal behavior in Colombia.

“Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia” by Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, and Jorge Tamayo.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Negotiating Pathways to Manhood: Violence Reproduction in Medellin’s Periphery” by Adam Baird.
“Economic Shocks and Crime: Evidence from the Brazilian Trade Liberalization” by Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Rodrigo R. Soares, and Gabriel Ulyssea (Forthcoming).
“Clicking on Heaven’s Door: The Effect of Immigrant Legalization on Crime” by Paolo Pinotti.
“Effects of Colombia’s Social Protection System on Workers’ Choice between Formal and Informal Employment” by Adriana Camacho, Emily Conover, and Alejandro Hoyos.
“Assessing Health Reform in Colombia: From Theory to Practice” by Alejandro Gaviria, Carlos Medina, and Carolina Mejía.
“Labor Market Effects of Payroll Taxes in Developing Countries: Evidence from Colombia” by Adriana Kugler and Maurice Kugler.
“Do Payroll Tax Breaks Stimulate Formality? Evidence from Colombia’s Reform” by Adriana Kugler, Maurice Kugler, and Louis O. Herrera Prada (NBER Working Paper No. 23308.).
“Job Loss, Credit and Crime in Colombia” by Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, Christian Posso, and Jorge Tamayo.
“Spatial Mobility, Economic Opportunity, and Crime” by Gaurav Khanna Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, Daniel Ramos, Jorge Tamayo and Audrey Tiew.
“The Effect of Job Loss and Unemployment Insurance on Crime in Brazil” by Diogo Britto, Paolo Pinotti and Breno Sampaio.
“Gang rule: Understanding and Countering Criminal Governance" by Christopher Blattman, Gustavo Duncan, Benjamin Lessing, and Santiago Tobón.
“Gangs, Labor Mobility, and Development” by Nikita Melnikov, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, and María Micaela Sviatschi.
Probable Causation Episode 15: Mica Sviatschi
“Market Structure and Extortion: Evidence from 50,000 Extortion Payments” by Zach Y. Brown, Eduardo Montero, Carlos Schmidt-Padilla, María Micaela Sviatschi.

Episode 55: Morgan Williams Jr. on the race-specific effects of policing Aug 03, 2021

Show notes

Morgan Williams Jr. talks about the race-specific effects of policing.

"Police Force Size and Civilian Race" by Aaron Chalfin, Benjamin Hansen, Emily Weisburst, and Morgan Williams, Jr.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime” by Steven Levitt.
“Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime: Comment” by Justin McCrary.
“Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effects of Police on Crime: Reply” by Steven Levitt.
“COPS and Crime” by William N. Evans and Emily G. Owens.
“Safety in Police Numbers: Evidence of Police Effectiveness from Federal COPS Grant Applications” by Emily Weisburst.
“More COPS, Less Crime” by Steven Mello.
“The Effects of COPS Office Funding on Sworn Force Levels, Crime, and Arrests” by Phillip Cook, Max Kapustin, Jens Ludwig, and Douglas Miller.
“Are U.S. Cities Underpoliced? Theory and Evidence” by Aaron Chalfin and Justin McCrary.
“Misdemeanor Prosecution” by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, and Anna Harvey.
Probable Causation Episode 51: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey.

Bonus episode: Hannah Walker on criminal justice contact and political participation Jul 27, 2021

Show notes

David Eil talks with Hannah Walker about her book, "Mobilized by Injustice: Criminal Justice Contact, Political Participation, and Race."

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Episode 54: Carolina Arteaga on parental incarceration Jul 20, 2021

Show notes

Carolina Arteaga talks about how parental incarceration affects kids' education outcomes.

“Parental Incarceration and Children’s Educational Attainment” by Carolina Arteaga.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Parental Arrest and Incarceration: How Does it Impact the Children?” by Stephen B. Billings.
“The Impact of Maternal Imprisonment on Children’s Probability of Grade Retention” by Rosa Minhyo Cho.
“The Impact of Maternal Incarceration on Children’s Educational Achievement: Results from Chicago Public Schools” by Rosa Minhyo Cho.
“The Effects of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio” by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.
“Intergenerational Effects of Incarceration” by Manudeep Bhuller, Gordon B. Dahl, Katrine V. Løken, and Magne Mogstad. [WORKING PAPER]
“The Intergenerational Effects of Parental Incarceration” by Will Dobbie, Hans Grönqvist, Susan Niknami, Mårten Palme, and Mikael Priks. [WORKING PAPER]
Probable Causation Episode 7: Jeff Weaver.

Episode 53: Heyu Xiong on how legalizing marijuana affects marijuana dealers Jul 06, 2021

Show notes

Heyu Xiong talks about on how legalizing marijuana affects those with histories of selling marijuana illegally.

“Displacement in the Criminal Labor Market: Evidence from Drug Legalizations” by Heyu Xiong.

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“Building Criminal Capital Behind Bars: Peer Effects in Juvenile Corrections” by Patrick Bayer, Randi Hjalmarsson, and David Pozen.
“Making a Narco: Childhood Exposure to Illegal Labor Markets and Criminal Life Paths” by Maria Micaela Sviatschi.
“Drug Dealing and Legitimate Self-Employment” by Robert W. Fairlie.
“Formal Employment and Organized Crime: Regression Discontinuity Evidence from Colombia” by Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, and Jorge Tamayo.
“The Violent Consequences of Trade-Induced Worker Displacement in Mexico” by Melissa Dell, Benjamin Feigenberg, and Kensuke Teshima.
“Prices, Policing and Policy: The Dynamics of Crime Booms and Busts” by Tom Kirchmaier, Stephen Machin, Matteo Sandi, and Robert Witt.

Bonus episode: Gregg Caruso on free will and punishment Jun 29, 2021

Show notes

David Eil talks with Gregg Caruso about his book, "Rejecting Retributivism: Free Will, Punishment, and Criminal Justice."

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

Episode 52: Katherine Eriksson on Rosenwald schools Jun 22, 2021

Show notes

Katherine Eriksson talks about how access to education affected incarceration in the early 20th century.

"Education and Incarceration in the Jim Crow South: Evidence from Rosenwald Schools" by Katherine Eriksson.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

“The Impact of Rosenwald Schools on Black Achievement” by Daniel Aaronson and Bhashkar Mazumder.
Probable Causation Episode 36: Ellora Derenoncourt.
“Closing the Gap? The Effect of Private Philanthropy on the Provision of African-American Schooling in the U.S. South” by Celeste Carruthers and Marianne Wanamaker.
"Moving North and into jail? The great migration and black incarceration" by Katherine Eriksson.
"Economic Consequences of the U.S. Convict Labor System" by Michael Poyker.
"Prisons and Profits: Understanding The Political Economy of Incarceration in the Postbellum American South" by Susanne Schwarz.
"The Effects of Parental and Sibling Incarceration: Evidence from Ohio" by Samuel Norris, Matthew Pecenco, and Jeffrey Weaver.
Probable Causation Episode 7: Jeff Weaver.
Probable Causation Episode 9: Michael Mueller-Smith.

Episode 51: Amanda Agan and Anna Harvey on misdemeanor prosecution Jun 08, 2021

Show notes

Amanda Agan, Anna Harvey, and host Jennifer Doleac talk about the consequences of prosecuting defendants for nonviolent misdemeanor offenses.

"Misdemeanor Prosecution" by Amanda Agan, Jennifer Doleac, and Anna Harvey.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE:

Probable Causation Episode 8: Amanda Agan.
Probable Causation Episode 46: Anna Harvey.
“Punishment Without Crime: How Our Massive Misdemeanor System Traps the Innocent and Makes America More Unequal” by Alexandra Natapoff.
"The Scale of Misdemeanor Justice" by Megan Stevenson and Sandra Mayson.
"Diversion in the Criminal Justice System" by Michael Mueller-Smith and Kevin T. Schnepel.

Episode 13: Ariel White on short jail spells and subsequent voting behavior (REBROADCAST) May 25, 2021

Show notes

Ariel White talks about the effect of short jail spells on subsequent voting behavior. This episode was first posted in October 2019.

"Misdemeanor Disenfranchisement? The Demobilizing Effects of Brief Jail Spells on Potential Voters" by Ariel White.

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Probable Causation is part of Doleac Initiatives, a 501(c)(3) corporation. If you enjoy the show, please consider making a tax-deductible contribution. Thank you for supporting our work!

***

OTHER RESEARCH WE DISCUSS IN THIS EPISODE: