Stay ConnectedA finance podcast about investing, markets, and the big things that are affecting my, your, and other people’s money. New episodes weekly with top fund managers, analysts, and business leaders.
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James Elbaor, Founder and Portfolio Manager at Marlton LLC joins OPM to discuss why the private credit boom is officially over. Elbaor explains how artificial intelligence is threatening the SaaS businesses that make up over half a trillion dollars of private credit exposure, while also detailing how liquidity gates are currently trapping investors in massive interval funds like BCRED. The discussion concludes by exploring lucrative upcoming merger opportunities in the public BDC space and analyzing why asset managers utilizing permanent capital vehicles are being rewarded with premium market multiples.
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JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:42 Private Credit Redemptions Continue
07:03 IPO Window Shuts & Credit Fund M&A
15:28 AI Threat to SaaS Borrowers
16:51 Sponsor Message Plutus
18:17 Private Credit vs Private Equity
24:25 Systemic Risk and Wrappers
29:15 Public vs Private BDC Gap
34:46 Why Interval Funds List
39:44 Alt Managers Valuation Reset
43:33 Permanent Capital Explained
50:17 Hedge Funds vs Private Equity
54:41 Pershing Square Liquidity
01:04:17 Conclusion
Eric Wallerstein, Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group, joins OPM to discuss why he sees substantial risk that the Fed is making a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock that could cause a 2022 style bear market. He also explores the global coordination of rate hikes and why he believes the participation of lower growth economies like Canada indicate that this is a reaction to higher energy prices and not a substantially higher global neutral rate.
Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login
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JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:56 Fed Hike and Higher for Longer
02:30 Oil Driving Global Yields
05:58 Canada and Global Neutral Rate
07:14 Energy Crisis and Degrowth Risks
08:44 Politicized Fed and Credibility
11:50 Neutral Rate and AI CapEx Boom
14:47 Inflation Outlook and Policy Mistakes
17:20 Plutus Sponsor Break
18:46 Key Data to Watch: Bank Lending
20:07 Doves vs Hawks and Fiscal Drag
23:30 2022 Style Bear Market Setup
25:56 What Could Invalidate the Thesis?
26:41 BOJ Hike and Yen Intervention
31:20 Korea Silicon Boom
35:43 Europe Under Pressure
39:25 Middle East Outlook
43:06 Midterm Issues: AI vs. Gas Prices
48:34 China Oil Strategy
52:10 Big Calls Wrap
Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login
Jérémie Boyer, co-founder of Aurelion Research, joins OPM to give his outlook for 5 key commodities. He explains why after avoiding earlier downside volatility in gold he just got the buy signal he’s been waiting for, and why the longer-term AI driven bull thesis on copper is very real and happening now. He also gives his outlook for uranium, fertilizer, and oil and discusses how he and his partner turn commodity views into a portfolio of equities that is up over 100% since inception a little over 1-year ago.
Aurelion Research: https://aurelionresearch.com/
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JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
02:16 Why Gold Could Hit 5K
05:45 Geopolitics Over Rates
09:24 Portfolio Positioning
12:28 Managing Miner Cycles
16:26 Plutus
18:26 Bearish Oil & Fertilizer
20:28 Oil Thesis & China Inventories
33:23 Royalties as Exposure
36:07 Valuing Royalty Companies
42:48 Why Uranium Now
46:10 Uranium Contracts & Supply
51:10 Energy Security and Nuclear Buildout
54:31 Copper Bull Case in AI Era
01:00:05 Picking Copper Stocks
01:06:43 Five Commodities Recap
01:11:26 Closing and Where to Follow
Precious metal and base metal prices have soared as have many mining stocks, but despite this, Freddy Brick, partner at Muddy Waters Capital says that the industry feels closer to left for dead than euphoric. He explains why that setup and the consistency of the mispricing in the sector brought them to launch a fund with the help of mining expert Darren McLean allowing them to take concentrated investments in the assets they think the market is overlooking while running lower net exposure. He also discusses how they think about hedging in the sector, why they take a bottom-up approach to portfolio construction, and how they approach short and long activism in the sector.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:28 Approach to Portfolio Construction
07:56 Fraud Report Origin
09:35 Block Models Explained
15:27 Why Juniors Are Distressed
21:19 Finding Mispriced Projects
25:12 Venture Like Investing
28:25 Promoters and Capital Raising
33:43 Sentiment and Cycles
38:28 M&A Wave Ahead
43:27 Trading Vol and Hedging
46:57 Long Activism Approach
50:23 Scaling the Strategy
55:10 When Alpha Shows Up
Max Wiethe sits down with Capelight Partners founder Jeff Keller to dissect the massive Q3 technology sector divergence and the rapidly shifting landscape of AI investments. Keller breaks down why the market is rewarding near-term certainty in the tech sector and why he doesn’t like the "blow-off top" comparison between AI and the ARK implosion of 2021. He also gives his outlook for usage-based software vs. application software and explains the east coast vs west coast divide in assessing hyperscaler capex.
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:13 Tech Sector Divergence
05:23 Cyber Infra Valuation Risks
08:09 Why Themes Beat Stock Picking
12:01 Valuation and Forecast Limits
17:35 Retail Crowding Warning
20:15 2021Parallels
23:33 Rising Rates and Funding the AI Buildout
27:28 Mag Seven Return Profile Shift
29:43 CapEx is Existential
35:17 Meta Breakdown
39:38 Investor Positioning Themes
41:34 Long Biased Long Short
43:55 What Would Break AI?
46:26 AI Echo Chamber Risk
49:06 Factor Awareness Extremes
51:55 Deleveraging July Playbook
56:58 Year End Watchlist
58:58 Anthropic IPO and SpaceX Effect
01:01:06 Conclusion
Learn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/globalmacro
In this episode of "Other People's Money," host Max Wiethe welcomes back Warren Pies, co-founder of 3Fourteen Research, to unpack why macro risks are suddenly taking control of the stock market. Pies explains his tactical decision to downgrade stocks and commodities to neutral, shifting capital into cash as the market enters a historically weak seasonal window between August 15th and October 15th. The conversation dives deep into the Federal Reserve's true reaction function, the mispriced odds of a September rate hike, and the hidden political pressures driving the committee's choices. Furthermore, they discuss the critical data behind the AI build-out, including H200 GPU availability and the potential impact of major lab IPOs like Anthropic on the broader software sector.
Save $500/year on Caliban AI from 3Fourteen Research: https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/monetary-matters
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:21 Why Macro Takes Over
03:19 Earnings Season Structure
05:43 Upcoming Macro Catalysts
08:24 Fed Hike Odds Mispriced
10:37 Political Pressure on Fed
15:29 Sponsor Break HFGM
17:45 Coin Flip Meeting Dynamics
19:42 Rates Curve and Term Premium
24:54 How to Position in September
26:53 Tech Breadth and AI Cracks
30:17 Lab ARR Reality Check
34:40 Tech Leadership Needed
38:17 Data Center ROI Debate
40:36 Election and Policy Risk
43:44 AI Issuance Scapegoats
47:35 Energy as Diversifier
51:48 Anthropic IPO Impact
55:01 Software Versus Semis
58:28 Pair Trades and Correlations
01:01:19 Fade Macro Risk Playbook
01:02:55 Conclusion
In this episode of Other People's Money, host Max Wiethe sits down with High Yield Harry to examine the major trends in Wall Street compensation and careers, and why 2026 may be the year of the investment banker. Harry shares data from Buy Side Hub to detail buy-side compensation trends, career mobility bottlenecks, and why private equity professionals are resorting to non-recourse loans while waiting on delayed exits. The conversation breaks down the real threat of AI automation on financial modeling and grunt work, emphasizing why finance professionals must develop real-economy operating skills to survive. They also address the surge in private credit redemptions, retail investor panic, and whether buying small businesses is replacing the traditional mega-fund career path.
Check out Buyside Hub: https://www.buysidehub.com
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:45 Year of the Banker
03:38 Private Credit Redemptions
07:04 Retail Flows and Gating
10:18 Comp Trends and Hiring
13:17 Career Pyramid Reality
15:13 AI Reshapes Analyst Work
17:16 Big Firms vs Small Shops
20:27 Operators and Real Economy
23:56 Agents and Human Edge
26:39 Who Gets Displaced?
31:46 Rates and Longer Holds
37:42 Software Credit Time Bomb
41:16 Choosing Your Career Track
47:22 Top Jobs and Trading
51:56 Closing Takeaways
54:03 Banking Cycles and Layoffs
57:03 Conclusion
Andy Unanue, Founder and Managing Partner of AUA Private Equity Partners and former COO of Goya Foods breaks down the trillion-dollar opportunity in US food, beverage, and pet wellness family businesses. Andy shares how his experience in a family-run business shaped his firm's strategy of partnering with lower-middle-market, family-run companies across those sectors and explains how AUA unlocks 15% to 30% operational efficiencies. The discussion dives into major consumer trends, including the humanization of pets, the rise of ethnic food markets, and the impact of GLP-1 drugs on snacking habits. Finally, Andy offers actionable advice on navigating generational wealth transfers, building positive workplace cultures, and transitioning family enterprises for long-term success.
Learn more about AUA Private Equity Partners: https://auaequity.com
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:51 Goya Roots to PE
02:48 Market Size Focus
04:21 Operational Playbook
07:26 Exit Paths for Families
09:34 PE Exits and Buyers
13:18 Leaving Upside for the Next Buyer
16:17 Macro Trends Tailwinds
21:22 Beverage Bets and Risk
28:29 Authenticity Wins Consumers
31:41 Marketing and Internet Shift
36:10 Deal Sourcing and Moats
39:08 Co-Manufacturing Advantage
41:14 Regional Brands and Add Ons
44:56 Manufacturing Renaissance
53:34 Wealth Transfer and Family Offices
58:58 AUA Future and Wrap Up
Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://Fundrise.com/mm
Luke Gromen, founder of Forest for the Trees, sites down with Max Wiethe to dissect the escalating crisis in the global bond market. Gromen argues that off-balance sheet liabilities, such as baby boomer retirements and surging veterans' benefits, are colliding with massive defense spending to force a dangerous inflationary spiral. He unpacks how "defense stimmies" from nations like Japan and Germany are turning historical creditors into aggressive bond sellers, putting immense pressure on yields. Throughout the conversation, Gromen also issues a stark warning about the AI tech bubble, the incoming policies of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and why China's massive gold accumulation is a major red flag for the US dollar.
Read The Forest for the Trees: https://fftt-llc.com
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:52 Bond Selloff Explained
04:54 Debt Spiral Mechanics
08:22 Global Defense Stimulus
09:58 Real Yields Reality Check
13:20 Fed Chair Fantasy
15:34 Sponsor Break Fundrise
16:57 AI Trade Meets China
20:52 Labor Data Warning
23:02 AI Backstop Coming
26:28 No Long Bond Floor
30:44 Gold Revaluation Debate
35:27 China Gold Buying Surge
36:31 Oil Reserves And Leverage
39:19 Pain Contest with The West
43:22 Inequality and Instability
47:18 Dollar Down Yield Trap
50:03 Buy the Dip
52:12 Gold Targets and Gradualism
54:50 Bitcoin Lags Tech Risk
58:47 Warsh Fed No Good Options
01:02:55 What Breaks First?
01:05:33 Bonds Are the Biggest Bubble
Learn more about Teucrium’s Soybean ETF (SOYB) here: https://teucrium.com/soyb
Free E-book from Teucrium: https://insights.teucrium.com/why-investors-turning-to-commodity-etfs
In this episode of Other People's Money, Max Wiethe sits down with hedge fund manager Russell Clark to discuss why he believes the U.S. Treasury market is a much larger and more dangerous speculative bubble than AI. Clark details his macroeconomic outlook, arguing that a shifting political landscape focused on 7% wage growth and lower living costs will eventually push the 10-year Treasury yield up to an astonishing 10%. To stabilize affordability for younger generations, he predicts real estate will remain flat nominally while heavily declining in real terms. Clark also breaks down the massive capital expenditures in AI, viewing them as defensive strategies by legacy tech giants to protect their moats rather than mere speculation. Finally, Clark also warns about sectors reliant on low rates and the severe illiquidity and mispriced risks currently lurking within the private credit and private equity markets.
Read Russell’s Substack: https://www.russell-clark.com
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SOYB Fund Page & Prospectus: www.teucrium.com/soyb
Investing in SOYB involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Commodity investments are subject to significant volatility.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of the Teucrium Soybean Fund before investing. The prospectus contains this and other important information about the Fund.
This material must be proceeded or accompanied by the prospectus. The prospectus is available atteucrium.com/soyb.
Marketing Agent: PINE Distributors LLC.
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:38 Why Treasuries Look Risky
04:33 Foreign Reserves Shift from Gold to Bonds
08:59 Politics Turns Inflationary
14:12 Japan Leads
16:09 Wage Inflation Drives Yields
20:37 Sponsor Break SOYB
21:58 High Real Rates New Normal
26:14 Trading Long View vs Noise
29:09 Housing Tug of War
34:02 Politics Converge Anyway
36:03 Chips Are New Oil
38:38 Is AI a Bubble?
44:12 AI and Wage Politics
50:37 Strategic AI Spending
54:17 Leverage Unwind Risks
59:29 Private Credit Red Flags
01:04:13 Wrap Up and Links
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