Show notes
Analyst James Check (Checkmate) joins to unpack the current state of bitcoin and gold markets, the impact of shifting liquidity conditions, the relevance of four-year cycles, the future of bitcoin treasury companies, and why understanding market structure, capital flows, and the debasement trade is key to anticipating bitcoin’s next major move.
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The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset...in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.
00:00 — Market Overview & Sentiment
03:39 — Are 4-Year Cycles Dead?
06:26 — Liquidity & Macro Regime
09:24 — Gold vs Bitcoin: Signals & Sovereign Bid
11:39 — Institutions vs Retail Demand
13:44 — Onchain: Retail, OG Supply, Smart Money
19:59 — Treasury Companies: MNAV, Risks, Reality
32:15 — Who Buys Next? ETFs, WM, Sovereigns
37:44 — Retail Reflexivity & Hardware Tell
41:42 — Real Inflation & BTC vs Traditional Assets
56:33 — BTC Dominance, Altcoins & Valuation
01:05:40 — Liquidations, Tokenomics & Value Capture
01:13:29 — Barbell: Gold + BTC, Cycles & Leverage
01:24:44 — Outro
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