Odd Lots

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This Is What's Hard About Building a US Domestic Battery Industry Feb 19, 2024

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The growth of electric vehicles has heightened concerns about China's current dominance in lithium-ion batteries. So as part of the Inflation Reduction Act, the US government is spending money and providing tax credits to companies that are attempting to build up a domestic supply chain. So what are the real challenges to expanding America's battery-making capacity, both in terms of financing and operations? On this episode, we speak with Dr. Chris Burns, the founder and CEO of Novonix, a battery materials company with a focus on synthetic graphite manufacturing. He explains his company's role in the battery supply chain, the economics of domestic manufacturing, and how it employs the government's policy endeavors in its work.

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Lots More on What Earnings Are Telling Us About Prices Now Feb 16, 2024

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Last year, Corbu managing director Samuel Rines came on Odd Lots to discuss what exactly companies were saying about why they were raising prices. His argument was that in the post-pandemic environment, with all its associated peculiarities and one-off disruptions, businesses were pursuing a strategy of "price over volume" (POV) to boost their profit margins. Since then, the idea of corporate profits contributing to inflation has gone viral, with the Biden administration repeatedly admonishing companies for price-gouging. In this episode of Lots More, we discuss the latest earnings season and what it's telling us about prices right now. Rines argues that the POV strategy is petering out in favor of companies maintaining prices and preserving margins ("Price and Margin") and even beginning to boost their volumes. We also talk about recent job cuts and layoff announcements.

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The Quiet Revolution in How We Rescue Banks Feb 15, 2024

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A little less than a year ago, the US financial system was rocked by its first major banking drama since 2008. While the crisis was eventually contained, and only three lenders ended up collapsing, the experience re-ignited an ongoing conversation about the way we rescue troubled lenders. Not only did the Federal Reserve launch a new liquidity program called the Bank Term Funding Program as part of its support to the banking system in 2023, but regulators are now talking about changing existing facilities, including the Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs) and the discount window. For instance, Michael Hsu of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency's has proposed that banks be required to tap the discount window and "pre-position" collateral at the facility, just in case they one day need it. In this episode, we speak with Steven Kelly, associate director of research at the Yale University Program on Financial Stability, about the constellation of existing emergency facilities for banks, how they've evolved over time, and the changes that could be made to them now.

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How a Second Trump Administration Could Upend US-China Relations Feb 12, 2024

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Back in 2016, Donald Trump campaigned on a platform that included a much harsher stance toward trade with China, and the US-China Trade War was a big deal while he was in office. But the Biden administration has quietly continued the Trump tariff regime and even enacted more stringent restrictions targeting China's use of technology, including on semiconductors. Now that Trump looks set to get the Republican presidential nomination again, he's suggesting even higher tariffs — of 60% or more — on Chinese goods. What effect would that actually have on the US economy and global trade? Would it lead to higher prices for Americans when the country is still struggling with inflation? Or would it result in a slowing of the economy that actually mutes prices? Would US domestic manufacturing ramp up to fill the gap? Or would we simply import more from other countries? In this episode, we speak with Tom Orlik, chief economist at Bloomberg Economics, and Mackenzie Hawkins, US industrial policy reporter for Bloomberg News, who have published an in-depth analysis of the impact of these potential tariffs.

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How Surging US Oil Output Is Being Moved and Stored Feb 09, 2024

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US oil production has surged to an all-time record of more than 13 million barrels produced per day. But where's all that crude actually going? And how is it being handled and stored? On this episode, we speak with Steven Barsamian, chief operating officer at the Tank Tiger, a clearing house for terminal storage, and co-host of the Tank Talk podcast, about the business of moving and storing oil and its related products. We talk about what storage capacity looks like right now, how it's changed over time, plus last year's diesel shortage in the Northeast. He also describes exactly how crude oil and refined products move from point A to point B, talks about the crud you find at the bottom of storage tanks, and explains why you should definitely not keep oil in the bathtub (or on your desk) to benefit from contango.

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NY Community Bancorp's Problems in the Rent-Stabilized Market Feb 08, 2024

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The last week saw a major plunge in shares of New York Community Bancorp after the company revealed challenges in its lending to multi-family residential developers. So what went wrong at this bank? And what does it say about this particular market? On this episode we speak with Quantierra CEO Ben Carlos Thypin, a New York City landlord and investor, about the bank's large role within NYC's rent-stabilized housing market. Over the last year, Ben has advised funds to short NYCB based on its exposure to this complex corner of real estate. He explains how NYCB's position, combined with market and regulatory changes to the city's housing market, contributed to the strains.

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How Businesses Decide Exactly Where to Set Up Shop Feb 05, 2024

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We know that companies think carefully about where they open stores. They might look at things like how many people pass by the location on a day-to-day basis or how easy it is to access the site by car. But what are the lesser known factors that go into deciding where to open a brick-and-mortar store? And how have these considerations changed over time? In this episode, we talk about the art of retail site selection. We speak with Tom McGee, CEO of the International Council of Shopping Centers, which annually hosts one of the biggest deal-making events connecting retailers and commercial real estate owners. Then, we drill down into a specific type of business: drive-thrus for coffee chains and fast food restaurants. We speak with Chris Hatch, partner at Forza Development.

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Lots More on Why Farmers Across Europe Are Furious Feb 02, 2024

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In France, the Netherlands, Germany, and Poland, we've seen a wave of protests recently from angry farmers. So what's driving the activity? On this episode of Lots More, we speak with Lorcan Roche Kelly, a former cattle farmer in Western Ireland who is now the business editor at the Irish Farmers Journal. He explains how a combination of factors from climate obligations, economic conditions, government regulation, and free trade deals have put the squeeze on many farms, causing this public revolt. He explains the unique conditions facing each country, as well as broader political and economic ramifications.

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How Global Shippers Are Dealing With a Worsening Red Sea Crisis Feb 01, 2024

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Attacks on ships in the Red Sea continue to escalate. What started with narrow strikes by Yemeni-based Houthi militants against Israel-linked vessels has now expanded to ships carrying a wide range of freight, including oil and liquified natural gas. The US military has responded with strikes against Houthi targets, but so far they don't appear to have much of a deterring effect. Meanwhile shipping delays and costs — driven in part by anxious insurers — continue to worsen. To understand the challenge to global trade and how bad it could get, we speak with maritime historian Sal Mercogliano, a professor at Campbell University and the host of the What Is Going On With Shipping? show on YouTube. He discusses how shipping companies are making operational decisions in the area, how boat crews are coping, and how various international militaries are responding. He also talks about the broad history of the US Navy and its traditional role in securing international trading routes.

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Mark Cabana on the Fed, QT and Treasury Funding Jan 31, 2024

Show notes

It's a busy week for the bond market with a meeting of the Federal Reserve and the release of the US Treasury's quarterly refunding statement. While a lot of people have been focusing on when the Fed will cut benchmark interest rates, there's also an ongoing debate about how fast the central bank will shrink its balance sheet given last year's banking crisis and the recent drama in the repo market. In this episode, we speak with Mark Cabana, longtime rates strategist at Bank of America, about the big questions lurking behind the week's events. We talk about who will buy all the bonds the US is selling, what will happen to bank balance sheets as rates go down, and the impact of liquidity on the broader market.

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