Odd Lots

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Latest Episodes:

Understanding the Most Viral Chart in Artificial Intelligence Apr 25, 2026

Show notes

We live in an era of charts that are going up and to the right. This image obviously describes the stock market, particularly any company whose business is adjacent to artificial intelligence. But beyond stocks, another sort of chart we keep seeing is of AI capabilities also going up and to the right. The most famous and viral of these comes from an organization called METR, which stands for Model Evaluation and Threat Research. The organization is focused on understanding the degree to which AI models can engage in autonomous, complex tasks. METR see this is as a particularly important benchmark, given the risk that AI could one day be engaged in recursive self improvement, taking humans out of the loop. But how do you really gauge a model's ability to do complex problems. And what is being measured for exactly? On this episode, we speak with METR's President Chris Painter as well as Joel Becker, a member of the technical staff who works on evaluation methods for the organization. We discuss both the mechanics and the philosophy of METR's work, and what it means when we see a a chart showing that Clause Opus 4.6 can do a task that would take a human nearly 12 hours.

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James Bosworth on the "Orange Wave" Happening Across Latin America Apr 24, 2026

Show notes

We're living in an extraordinary moment for Latin American politics. From the ousting of Maduro to the ongoing oil blockade of Cuba to Javier Milei revving up a chainsaw at CPAC. Various leaders in different countries are taking different approaches to their relationship with the US. Each is aware that there is a high value in being close to Trump, but also each know that Trump won't be the US President forever. So how should we understand the different approaches being taken? Today we talk to James Bosworth, who is the the founder of Hxagon, a company that does political risk analysis and research primarily in Latin America. He is also the author the Latin America Risk Report newsletter. Our conversation with Bos covered what he calls the "orange shift," a region-wide realignment towards dealmaking with the Trump administration. We discuss how Latin American leaders are dealing with inflation, why Mexico's Claudia Sheinbaum and El Salvador's Nayib Bukele are so popular, how Brazil's Lula has surprised economic observers, and whether Trump will be able to find a "Delcy" elsewhere in the region.

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Google's Liz Reid on Who Will Own Search in a World of AI Apr 23, 2026

Show notes

Not too long ago, search engines were the dominant form of querying the internet. But that's changing since the rise of large language models like ChatGPT, Claude, and Google's Gemini. More and more people are getting their online info through AI, effectively bypassing the search bars of old and creating a tension for large tech companies that offer AI models, but also make money from web traffic and search-related advertising. In this episode, we speak with Elizabeth Reid, VP of search at Google. Liz has been with the company for more than two decades, witnessing multiple tech transformations in that time. So we talk with her about how Google is incorporating Gemini into search via AI overviews, what that means for traffic and ad sales, and the practical experience of search in an age of LLMs and internet slop.
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Daniel Yergin Sees a 'Different World' Emerging After the Hormuz Crisis Apr 22, 2026

Show notes

When it comes to the history of oil and energy, nobody is more famous or well respected than Daniel Yergin. He is the Vice Chairman of S&P Global, and the Pulitzer Prize winning author of both The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power and The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations. So we had to get his insights on the war in Iran, and its historical significance. Yergin tells us that a "different world" will emerge from the crisis surrounding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, regardless of the war's ultimate outcome. Iran's ability to control the Strait against a much stronger military is a demonstration that the balance of global power is changing, with profound ramifications for countries around the world. We discuss how different regions are being affected, and how it will change their calculus when it comes to energy security. We also talk about the AI industry's seemingly insatiable demand for electricity, and how this is rippling across the entire energy landscape.

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Brad Jacobs on His Big Bet on Building Insulation Apr 21, 2026

Show notes

He's done it again. On Sunday night, building supply company QXO announced that it would be acquiring TopBuild for $17 billion. TopBuild sells and installs insulation for both the residential and commercial markets. For Brad Jacobs, the CEO of QXO, this is just the latest in a lifetime of deals he's made. In fact, he's made over 500 deals in his life across numerous public companies that he's founded, most of which have XO somewhere in the ticker. Brad's companies all tend to be highly focused on the so-called "old economy" or real physical world, but of course, as we've seen with the datacenter boom, the old economy is still hot and crucial. So we talk about the logic behind this deal, how the insulation market works, and the general state of the building supply market right now.
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Jack McClendon on Why It's So Hard to Create a New American Oil Boom Apr 20, 2026

Show notes

The White House wants gasoline prices to be lower, and it wants to see American oil companies drill for more oil. But of course, these ideas are in tension. If prices are going lower, why drill more? This tension has only grown sharper since the shale busts of the mid-2010s, as American producers got burned multiple times by prioritizing production over profits. So what now? How do US producers think about the recent oil price spike? How are they thinking about the rising costs of their own production, due to higher energy, labor, and steel costs? On this episode, we speak with Jack McClendon, the founder and CEO of Siena Natural Resources, an independent oil and gas company that primary buys odd lots of wells from other companies. We talk about the long-term economics of the industry, including the central role of capital markets in determining how the industry moves. He also tells us whether the show Landman is realistic.

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Alex Imas on Why Economists Might Be Getting AI Wrong Apr 18, 2026

Show notes

Everyone knows that new technologies can be really disruptive to the labor market, but eventually new jobs emerge and things come back into balance. And there is a sense in which many view AI with the same lens. Yes, there will be pain in some sectors, but then there will be productivity gains and new sources of demand and new opportunities for labor that we can't conceive of yet. But could it be different this time? Could AI be disruptive in a manner that, say, the steam engine was not? On this episode we speak with Alex Imas, a professor at the University of Chicago focusing on economics and applied AI. We talk about his work on the AI and labor question, how to think about which jobs may be most at risk, and why the sheer speed of AI development could make it categorically different than prior general purpose technologies that came before it.

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Planet Money Turned Everyday Annoyances Into an Economics Book Apr 17, 2026

Show notes

There are a lot of things to be annoyed about in modern life. The high cost of food and housing and childcare. Dating apps that don't seem to work. The fear of AI replacing you at your job. These are all common complaints and concerns, and each of them can be traced to a specific economic phenomenon or market structure issue. Once you start thinking about the world in this way, you can't unsee it. In this episode, we speak with Planet Money co-host Mary Childs, and contributor to the podcast, Alex Mayassi. They've just written a book called Planet Money: A Guide to the Economic Forces That Shape Your Life. We discuss how one of Tracy's childhood memories was a reflection of the commodity trap, what Baumol's cost disease tells us about daycare, and why -- despite all these frustrations -- there are still many reasons to be optimistic about economic progress.

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Brad Setser on the War in Iran and the Future of the US Dollar Apr 16, 2026

Show notes

It's possible that the war in Iran could reshape financial flows in significant ways. Perhaps the Gulf states will end up as less desirable places to do business. Perhaps Iran will have a tollbooth at the Strait of Hormuz. Perhaps this episode will accelerate the world's shift away from oil. It's impossible to say. But given the uncertainty, fresh questions are being raised about the existing financial world order, upon the top of which the US dollar sits. On this episode, we speak once again with Brad Setser, the Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. We discuss how the war is already creating new global imbalances, and the degree to which this episode parallels past energy shocks. We also talk about broader trends in reserve management, other factors driving financial flows, and the unique situation facing East Asia, which is seeing a surge in its energy import bills at the same time its making making a fortune selling chips for the AI boom.

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War in Iran Is Already Reshaping East Asia's Energy Future Apr 15, 2026

Show notes

The war in Iran has caused the price of all kinds of commodities to surge, and that has a negative economic impact almost everywhere. But the squeeze is really being felt hard in East Asia, which is the ultimate destination for a lot of oil and gas that come out of the Gulf. And though the Strait of Hormuz may eventually re-open, and the acute pain may pass, this episode may already be reshaping the future. On this episode of the podcast we speak with Alex Turnbull, an investor based in Singapore, and a researcher on energy topics with the Australian National University. He argues that the war will accelerate the region's appetite to restart nuclear power plants, ultimately lessening its dependence on imported natural gas. He also notes that per his channel checks, the region is already seeing a jump in demand for electric vehicles, with BYD dealers holding less and less inventory on hand.
Read more: US, Iran Seek More Ceasefire Talks as Blockade Stops Ships
There Are No Easy Exits From Iran for the US

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