More or Less

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No, a study has not shown that the covid jab causes cancer Jan 17, 2026

Show notes

In Autumn 2025 a paper in South Korea was published that excited many a vaccine sceptic online. The paper claimed that receiving a vaccination against Covid19 was linked to a 27% increase in cancer risk.

However, when you dig into the data there is no evidence that the vaccine caused the cancer. We spoke to Professor Justin Fendos to explain why we cannot take this type of statistical analysis at face value.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Coordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: James Beard

Have more than 100 private schools been forced to close because of VAT? Jan 14, 2026

Show notes

Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week:

A headline in the Mail says more than 100 private schools have closed since Labour came to power and ended the VAT exemption for private schools. Is that number right?

Is it true that when Covid hit the UK, a one-week delay in imposing lockdown led to 23,000 deaths?

Do 10 million families rely on X as their main source of news? That’s what government spokesperson Baroness Ruth Anderson said in the House of Lords, but is it correct?

Is there really a “quiet revival” of Christian worship? Two YouGov polls found churchgoing had gone up by 50% between 2018 and 2024 in England and Wales. New polling data suggests otherwise.

If you’ve seen a number in the news you want the team on More or Less to have a look at, email moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Contributors: Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Emeritus Professor of Statistics in the Statistical Laboratory, University of Cambridge Professor Sir John Curtice, Senior Research Fellow at the National Centre for Social Research

Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Tom Colls and Nathan Gower Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Lizzy McNeill Production co-ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound mix: Gareth Jones Editor: Richard Vadon

Does Venezuela really have the biggest oil reserves in the world? Jan 10, 2026

Show notes

When people think of oil rich nations their mind generally goes to Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the US.

But according to international statistics, the country with the largest oil reserves is Venezuela, with 300 billion barrels worth.

At their peak they produced over 3.5 million barrels of the stuff per day. However, due to lack of investment, sanctions and mismanagement that peak is long gone.

Following their military intervention, the US administration claims they can get Venezuela's oil production up and running at full capacity within 18 months.

But can they, and why is it that estimates for other countries oil reserves have fluctuated but Venezuela’s has stayed at 300 billion barrels for over two decades?

Presenter: Tim Harford Producer: Lizzy McNeill Series Producer: Tom Colls Editor: Richard Vadon Production Co-Ordinator: Brenda Brown Sound Mix: Dave O’Neill

Immigration, Benefits and Inequality Jan 09, 2026

Show notes

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes.

In the final episode, we’re looking at the numbers behind some of the UK’s most potent political debates:

Has 98% of the UK’s population growth come from immigration?

Do we spend more on benefits in the UK than in other high-income countries?

Is the gap between rich and poor growing?

Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Contributors:

Madeleine Sumption, Director of the Migration Observatory at Oxford University Lukas Lehner, Assistant Professor at the University of Edinburgh Arun Advani, Director of the Centre for the Analysis of Taxation and a Professor of Economics at the University of Warwick. Alex Scholes, Research Director at NatCen

Credits:

Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Nathan Gower, Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

Older People, Education, Prisons and the Weather Jan 08, 2026

Show notes

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes.

In the fourth episode, we’re searching for answers to these questions:

Are one in four pensioners millionaires?

Is England’s education system performing better than Finland’s? And how does it compare to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland

Are our prisons going to run out of space?

Is the weather getting weirder?

Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Contributors: Heidi Karjalainen, Senior Research Economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies Harry Fletcher-Wood, Director of Training at StepLab John Jerrim, Professor of Education and Social Statistics at University College London Cassia Rowland, Senior Researcher at the Institute for Government Friederike Otto, Professor of Climate Science at Imperial College London

Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Nathan Gower, Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

Sex, Drugs and Empty Homes Jan 07, 2026

Show notes

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes.

In the third episode, we’re searching for answers to these questions:

Are there really 700,000 empty homes that could be used to solve the housing crisis?

Does the NHS pay less for drugs than health services in other countries?

Is violent crime going up or down?

Is the UK in the midst of a fertility crisis?

Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Contributors:

Dr Huseyin Naci, Associate Professor and Director the Pharmaceutical Policy Lab at the London School of Economics Professor Jennifer Dowd, deputy director of the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science at the University of Oxford

Credits:

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporters: Lizzy McNeill and Nathan Gower Producers: Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

Health Jan 06, 2026

Show notes

Has life expectancy in the UK started to go up again at last?

What statistics tell you about the health of the NHS?

After years of promises, are there actually any more GPs?

What’s happening to cancer rates in the UK?

What’s gone wrong with productivity in the health service?

Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.uk

Contributors:

Stuart McDonald, Head of Longevity and Demographic Insights at the consultancy Lane Clark & Peacock (LCP) Jon Shelton, Head of Cancer Intelligence at Cancer Research UK Ben Zaranko, Associate Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Nathan Gower Producers: Lizzy McNeill, Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

The Economy Jan 05, 2026

Show notes

What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes. In the first episode, we’re starting the week by asking some interesting questions about the economy: Is the cost-of-living crisis over? The economy is expected to have grown by 1.5% in 2025. Is that a big number? When taxes are at record highs, why does it feel as if everything is such hard work for public services? Do the majority of people in Scotland pay less tax than they would in the rest of the UK? Does the UK have a more progressive tax system than Scandinavian countries? Get in touch if you’ve seen a number in the news you think we should take a look at: moreorless@bbc.co.uk Contributors: Ruth Curtice, Chief Executive of the Resolution Foundation Helen Miller, Director of Institute for Fiscal Studies Mairi Spowage, Professor and Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute at the University of Strathclyde John Burn-Murdoch, chief data reporter for the Financial Times Credits: Presenter: Tim Harford Quiz contestant: Lizzy McNeill Producers: Nathan Gower, Katie Solleveld and Charlotte McDonald Series producer: Tom Colls Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound mix: Sarah Hockley and James Beard Editor: Richard Vadon

Numbers of the year 2026 Jan 03, 2026

Show notes

From record-breaking passenger numbers, to some more record-breaking numbers - courtesy of the Men’s football World Cup. We look forward to what 2026 might have in store for us - numerically of course.

Presenter: Tim Harford Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld Production Co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Rod Farquhar Editor: Richard Vadon

Numbers of the Year 2025 Dec 31, 2025

Show notes

From the number of women in space and transistors on a chip to social media usage -we’re taking a look back the key numerical moments of 2025. We explore the woes of a big infrastructure projects. Plus, just how can you make sure your New Year’s Resolutions are successful? We’ve got statistics to help.

Presenter: Tim Harford Reporter: Lizzy McNeil Producers: Charlotte McDonald and Katie Solleveld Production co-ordinator: Maria Ogundele Sound Mix: Neil Churchill Editor: Richard Vadon

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