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    More or Less

    Tim Harford explains – and sometimes debunks – the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life.

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    Latest Episodes:
    Bolton vaccines, Yorkshire versus Scotland and the average gamer Jun 02, 2021
    Show notes

    Health Minister Matt Hancock recently told the House of Commons that: “The number of vaccinations happening in Bolton right now is phenomenal - tens of thousands every single day.” We explain why this is not the case.

    The recent SNP election success has turned attention to the question of independence. We compare Scotland’s finances to the comparably sized Yorkshire and Humber region.

    How do you work out 28 + 47 in your head? We speak to mathematician Katie Steckles.

    A listener asked us to find out if it is true that the average age of a gamer is over 40.

    Plus, we take a look at this claim from Netflix documentary Seaspiracy: “if current fishing trends continue we will see virtually empty oceans by the year 2048.”


    The Seaspiracy “virtually empty ocean” claim May 29, 2021
    Show notes

    Popular Netflix documentary Seaspiracy has sparked a lot of debate recently, including some controversy over some of the claims the documentary makes and the numbers behind them. One of the most striking is that: “if current fishing trends continue we will see virtually empty oceans by the year 2048.” Although overfishing is a global problem, we take a look and find that this scenario is unlikely.


    Wales jab success, Eurovision and living with your parents May 26, 2021
    Show notes

    Wales has given one vaccination dose against Covid 19 to a larger proportion of their population than any other country except a couple of super tiny ones. They’ve given one vaccine dose to over 80% of their adult population. We explore some reasons why they seem to be doing so well. The UK continues to do poorly at Eurovision – we take a look back over the years to examine why the UK used to do well, and why it doesn’t any more. Waiting lists for NHS treatment across the UK have grown – but why are things so bad in Northern Ireland? Is it true that 42% of young people are living at home with their parents? We find out what a young person is and why they haven’t flown the nest.


    The medical trial that proved Trump wrong May 22, 2021
    Show notes

    The Recovery Trial, a nation-wide clinical study in the UK, helped identify treatments for Covid 19 in the early months of the pandemic. Tim Harford speaks to Professor Martin Landray of Oxford University whose team established the randomised trial.


    Explaining maths without Numbers May 15, 2021
    Show notes

    Tim Harford interviews Milo Beckman - a young mathematician, still in his twenties, who has written a book called ‘Math without Numbers’. Milo explains why he wanted to strip out digits to make it easier to describe the beauty of mathematics.


    Finding Mexico City’s real death toll May 08, 2021
    Show notes

    Mexico City’s official Covid 19 death toll did not seem to reflect the full extent of the crisis that hit the country in the spring of 2020 - this is according to Laurianne Despeghel and Mario Romero. These two ordinary citizens used publicly available data to show that excess deaths during the crisis - that’s the total number of extra deaths compared to previous years - was four times higher than the confirmed Covid 19 deaths.


    Bayes: the clergyman whose maths changed the world May 02, 2021
    Show notes

    Bayes’ Rule has been used in AI, genetic studies, translating foreign languages and even cracking the Enigma Code in the Second World War. We find out about Thomas Bayes - the 18th century English statistician and clergyman whose work was largely forgotten until the 20th century.


    Will 2021 have more Covid deaths than 2020? Apr 24, 2021
    Show notes

    In 2020 there were 1.8 million reported Covid deaths. So far this year, we’ve had 1.2 million. We’re currently seeing around 12,000 deaths a day across the world. But while some areas are seeing falls in numbers, others such as India are seeing a surge.

    This week Tim Harford tries to answer the question: Will there be more global deaths this year from Covid 19 compared to last year?


    How many swimming pools full of vaccine do we need? Apr 17, 2021
    Show notes

    If we brought together all the Covid 19 vaccine needed for the whole world, how much space would it fill up? An Olympic size swimming pool? We do some back of the envelope sums.

    Plus - we look at the increased risk of clots from pregnancy. Last week we looked at the increased risk of getting a clot from taking the combined contraceptive pill and compared it to risk of possible rare clots identified following the Astra Zeneca jab. How does pregnancy compare?


    Clot risks: The Pill versus the vaccine Apr 10, 2021
    Show notes

    The Astra Zeneca Covid 19 jab remains in the headlines because some regulators have concluded that it may raise the risk of a very rare type of blood clot, albeit to a risk that is still very low. In the past few weeks a number of countries have said they will limit its use to older age groups. But people are drawing comparisons to the contraceptive pill which is well-known to increase the risk of clots and asking why this level of risk is tolerated. Is this comparison fair? Tim Harford speaks to Professor Frits Rosendaal from the University of Leiden in the Netherlands and Susan Ellenberg, professor of biostatistics at the University of Pennsylvania.


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