Money Tree Investing

Latest Episodes:

Is Your Social Security Safe From DOGE? Apr 02, 2025

Show notes

Is your social security safe from DOGE? Today we talk about the big changes coming to the Social Security Administration and how (or if) they impact you! We talk about social securities origins as a safety net, its current insolvency trajectory by the early-to-mid 2030s, and the political challenges of reform. We critique the past government inaction and explores potential solutions. Don't worry, your social security won't disappear overnight so make rational decisions rather than reacting to media-driven fear.

We discuss...

Market volatility and the significance of quarter-end movements.
Tax-loss selling at year-end can lead to market bottoms in certain assets.
Social Security was originally created as a safety net for those unable to support themselves.
A demographic imbalance is stressing Social Security's financial stability. Without intervention, Social Security is projected to be insolvent by the early-to-mid 2030s.
Potential solutions include extending eligibility ages and adjusting benefits.
Some proposals suggest cutting administrative costs rather than benefits.
Future reforms may involve income-based benefit reductions or delayed eligibility.
The likelihood of Social Security disappearing entirely is extremely low. We advise against making rash Social Security decisions based on media fear-mongering.
Social Security planning remains a critical topic, with past loopholes removed as the government adapts to prevent system exploitation.
Previously, retirees could take Social Security early at 62, repay it later, and reset their benefits, but this strategy has been eliminated.
The decision to take Social Security early or delay it depends on individual financial needs and life expectancy.
Break-even analysis suggests waiting until full retirement age (67) can be beneficial for those with longer life expectancy.
Raising the full retirement age to 70 could extend Social Security solvency by billions of dollars.
Adjustments to cost-of-living calculations have historically been used to slow benefit inflation and extend program viability.
The current Social Security payroll tax cap of $160,000 could be raised or removed to increase funding.
Increasing payroll tax rates slightly could help stabilize the program's finances.
Social Security has one of the lowest administrative costs among government programs, with about 99% of funds going directly to benefits.
Historical tax changes under Reagan and Clinton increased Social Security taxation thresholds, and further increases remain possible.
Legislative changes to Social Security, including benefit reductions or age increases, can happen quickly with little warning.
Market volatility continues to be a major concern, with seasonal patterns and large equity inflows despite broader uncertainty.
Investors should be cautious of overpaying for stocks with declining growth while seeking undervalued opportunities.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/social-security-safe-from-doge-699

Investment Management in a Volatile Market with Shelby McFaddin Mar 28, 2025

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Shelby McFaddin is here to discuss investment management for your portfolio in 2025's volatile stock market. Shelby discusses her time at Motley Fool Asset Management and shares her journey from studying economics and international affairs to working in private and public equity before transitioning to her current role. She shared insights on her investment strategy, highlights the challenges of stock picking in today's market, and emphasizes the importance of quality over chasing trends. She also talks the impact of macroeconomic factors, inflation, and interest rates on investing, and the housing market's unexpected resilience.

We discuss...

Shelby McFaddin shared her background in economics and international affairs, detailing her transition from institutional asset management to stock picking at Motley Fool Asset Management.
She focuses on retail and consumer-exposed stocks, driven by her interest in human behavior and its impact on economic trends.
Shelby follows a "growth at a reasonable price" (GARP) approach, balancing valuation considerations with growth potential.
She highlights the difficulty of value investing in recent decades and how she evaluates opportunities by comparing industry peers rather than relying solely on historical valuations.
Dividend-paying and shareholder-friendly companies play a role in her strategy, particularly those with strong cash flows and capital return policies.
Inflation is expected to remain elevated and interest rates to stay higher for longer, shaping her investment outlook.
The paradox of the housing market, where high interest rates have not lowered home prices but instead frozen supply and affordability.
The Fed's role in the economy may require more government intervention than people expect.
AI is being integrated into business operations to streamline processes and increase efficiency.
Investors are becoming more discerning about companies delivering on cloud and data center promises.
The market punishes companies for missing expectations but not as severely as before.
The concentration of stock market gains in a few companies raises concerns about broader growth.
Lack of analyst coverage and institutional interest limits small-cap stock visibility.
Investors are looking for companies that can efficiently allocate capital expenditures.
The lack of movement in small-cap stocks is attributed to systemic rather than company-specific issues.
Retail and institutional investors struggle to justify small-cap exposure due to risk and liquidity concerns.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
Douglas Heagren | Pro College Planners

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/investment-management-shelby-mcfaddin-698

Extreme Overvaluation In These Stocks May Shock You Mar 26, 2025

Show notes

There are some overvaluation in these stocks that may shock you! Today we discuss concerns over the stock market's high valuations, with a historical P/E ratio of around 17 now sitting at roughly 35, indicating extreme overvaluation comparable to the tech bubble. There is a risk of a potential 50% market correction and those who have only experienced rising markets, may be unprepared for downturns. We talk about the importance of hedging, reassessing portfolios, and understanding that economic conditions, stock markets, and politics do not always align.

We discuss...

Current market valuations, with the P/E ratio at historically high levels near 35. A 50% stock market decline would bring valuations back to historical averages.
Many investors are overly reliant on continued market growth.
Differentiating between politics, the economy, and the stock market, and avoiding emotional investing.
Institutional investors shifting into safer assets like short-term treasuries. Highlighted increasing institutional interest in private credit and alternative investments.
Investors with capital are preparing opportunistically rather than out of fear, ensuring flexibility to take advantage of market shifts.
The US market has dominated for two decades, but historical trends suggest international markets could rotate into favor.
European markets have performed exceptionally well this year, with countries like Germany, Spain, and the UK posting double-digit gains.
US-centric investing is common, but diversification into international markets is crucial for risk management.
The US market is currently underperforming, with the S&P 500 down approximately 8-10% year-to-date.
Emerging markets, including India, Mexico, and parts of Africa, are experiencing significant GDP growth.
Investors should be cautious with emerging markets due to political instability and economic volatility.
A potential 30-40% market correction in the next two years raises concerns about finding safe investment havens.
Bonds may not provide the usual refuge if yields and prices continue their current trends.
Stagflation could create an unpredictable economic environment, similar to the confusion of the 1970s.
The shift from US to international investing remains an ongoing trend, with Europe currently showing strong performance.
People often fail to understand market dynamics, where news-driven price movements often lead to selling once the news is out.
The U.S. government has declared Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as a strategic reserve but says it won't sell them unless necessary.
Markets are unpredictable, with current patterns possibly indicating a topping phase, signaling potential future downturns.
The job market shows signs of weakening, with decreasing job openings and increasing layoffs, which could indicate economic challenges ahead.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/overvaluation-in-these-stocks-697

Trading Mindset Revealed Mar 21, 2025

Show notes

Lia Holmgren, a former psychotherapist turned full-time stocks trader and trading coach, joins the podcast to discuss the trading mindset. As a stock trading coach she shares how her background helps traders manage discipline, risk, and emotional control. Lia details her approach to options trading, preferring long-term leaps on high-quality stocks and selling covered calls for additional income, while stressing the importance of position sizing and risk management. Learn how you can trade more successfully and without emotion as today we discuss...

Lia Holmgren shares her background, originally from former Czechoslovakia, now a full-time stocks and options trader with a past in psychotherapy.
She explains how her upbringing instilled strong financial habits, leading her to explore investing and later trading.
Lia works with traders as a performance coach, helping them manage emotions, risk, and discipline.
She observes that fewer women enter trading due to natural risk aversion and societal influences but notes a growing interest among women in financial education.
One of the biggest issues Lia sees in traders is poor risk management and misunderstanding risk-to-reward ratios.
She teaches a simple risk management formula that she believes is life-changing for retail traders.
Institutional traders often struggle with ego and emotional challenges, especially during losing years.
Lia explains her position sizing approach, typically risking no more than 1% of her account per trade.
How traders need to focus less on being right and more on maximizing profits while controlling losses.
Lia holds about 20 individual stocks, adjusting the portfolio periodically.
Taxes play a role in trading decisions, but delaying exits for tax reasons can backfire.
How she prefers selling options over buying, particularly for short-term plays in high-volatility stocks.
2025 is expected to bring market volatility and choppiness, making swing trading more challenging.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Douglas Heagren | Pro College Planners
Jeff Hulett | Finance Revamp

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/trading-mindset-lia-holmgren-696

Shocking Revelation…Housing Bubble 2.0 Mar 19, 2025

Show notes

We are back in the middle of housing bubble 2.0. Today we cover recent market corrections, investor psychology, and the importance of perspective when managing investments. We talk recent market downturns and real estate. Including the concerns over rising FHA mortgage defaults, government intervention artificially propping up housing prices, and the potential for a significant correction if foreclosure backlogs are released into the market.

We discuss...

The U.S. stock market recently declined about 10%, marking an official correction and triggering investor anxiety.
Many investors struggle with perspective, reacting emotionally to short-term losses rather than focusing on long-term strategy.
U.S. markets have outperformed international markets for the last 20 years, but history suggests this trend may reverse.
A 30-40% market correction would simply bring valuations back to historical norms, not signal economic collapse.
Financial success means little if it comes at the cost of personal well-being, stress, or strained relationships.
Ray Dalio's phrase "cash is trash" is context-dependent, as cash can be a valuable asset in volatile markets.
Holding cash during downturns can significantly improve investment positioning when markets recover.
The housing market faces risks due to a high FHA mortgage default rate, currently at 14%, one of the highest in history.
Government intervention has kept foreclosures from hitting the market, potentially propping up home prices artificially.
An estimated 400,000 foreclosures are backlogged due to government support, posing a risk if policies change.
If government mortgage relief ends, housing inventory could rise sharply, leading to potential price corrections.
Media outlets prioritize sensationalism over useful financial insights, making independent research critical.
The economy remains fragile, and regardless of leadership, structural issues could lead to economic challenges.
A correction in housing prices could trigger more foreclosures and increase rental market pressure.
Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum remain volatile but are still significantly up from past lows.
Investors must adapt to bear markets, as different strategies are required compared to bull markets.
Real estate affordability issues stem from government intervention and prolonged cheap credit policies.
If housing supply increases rapidly, sellers could panic, leading to a sharper market decline.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/housing-bubble-2-0-695

Venture Capital AI Trends Mar 14, 2025

Show notes

Kate McAndrew shares her experience with venture capital AI and how it is disrupting the industy. She also talks about unconventional journey into venture capital, from studying art history at McGill to running an accelerator in the Southeast before moving to San Francisco and co-founding Baukunst, a $100M fund focused on pre-seed investments. Kate discusses the venture capital cycle, the advantages of investing at the earliest stages, and the high-risk, high-reward nature of her approach.

We discuss...

Kate McAndrew shares her unconventional journey into venture capital, starting with an art history degree and entrepreneurial ventures.
She explains the venture capital cycle, highlighting her focus on the earliest stages of company building.
The fund emphasizes technology and design-driven innovation over pure tech solutions.
Kate believes strong businesses with real enterprise value naturally find successful exits.
She describes how her firm supports founders through recruiting, product strategy, and board participation.
Kate argues that despite industry changes, great businesses are always built by great founders.
Mega venture capital funds now dominate the market, reshaping valuations and the early-stage funding landscape.
Top talent will always attract capital, and fund managers must focus on identifying exceptional companies rather than investing in every deal.
The venture capital model prioritizes upside potential over downside protection, unlike private equity.
The AI investment landscape is shifting from infrastructure to application-layer innovations.
AI is becoming an essential part of all new technology companies, much like mobile technology once did.
AI adoption may take longer than expected due to human behavioral factors and trust issues.
SEO and traditional search-based marketing may become obsolete as AI-generated responses improve.
AI is moving toward full automation of specialized white-collar jobs, raising concerns about economic and societal impacts.
Some in Silicon Valley are focused on ensuring AI development aligns with ethical and environmental responsibility.
While AI will disrupt many industries, human connection and purpose-driven work will remain valuable.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/venture-capital-ai-trends-kate-mcandrew-694

Warren Buffett's Predictions Mar 12, 2025

Show notes

Will Warren Buffett's Predictions come true? We'll find out as today, the discussion centers around frustrations with the U.S. healthcare system, how longevity and health tie into financial planning and financial planning complexities with all the current economic unpredictability. The U.S. government has also officially designated confiscated Bitcoin as a strategic reserves and we're also still in the midst of a national debt crisis. We also talk government inefficiencies, policy changes, and interest rates.

We discuss...

Health insurance is frustrating due to high premiums and out-of-pocket costs before coverage kicks in.
The system feels broken, requiring significant payments just for the right to pay more before benefits apply.
Healthcare plans often don't cover preventive care, like vitamins or quarterly blood tests, which could reduce long-term costs.
A comparison to homeowners insurance highlights the absurdity of paying for minor expenses while also paying for coverage.
One speaker's insurance costs dropped dramatically when switching from an exchange plan to a corporate-sponsored plan.
Life insurance companies conduct more thorough health tests than standard healthcare providers, which seems counterintuitive.
Basic, cost-effective tests like fasting glucose are often omitted due to insurance cost-cutting measures.
Health metrics are based on shifting averages rather than optimal health standards, normalizing unhealthy ranges.
Society adjusts standards to accommodate unhealthy lifestyles rather than incentivizing better health.
A personal "year of health" initiative focuses on longevity rather than growth, emphasizing balance, flexibility, and endurance.
Longevity experts suggest lifestyle changes that promote long-term well-being, rather than just immediate fitness gains.
The healthcare system prioritizes treatment over prevention, even when prevention could save costs in the long run.
Financial planning must evolve to account for longer life expectancies, requiring strategies to ensure money lasts.
Advances in longevity science could fundamentally change the healthcare system and financial planning.
Future health innovations may extend life expectancy, raising questions about economic and social impacts.
Bill Perkins' book Die With Zero promotes the idea of optimizing life experiences rather than leaving wealth behind.
Planning to die with nothing is difficult due to unpredictable lifespan and financial variables.
Financial planning must account for changing tax rates, inflation, market crashes, and policy shifts.
Predictions in finance, like oil prices, are often inaccurate due to uncontrollable external factors.
Financial plans become obsolete quickly and require constant updates.
Guardrails in financial planning help maintain spending levels within a safe range.
The U.S. has officially designated confiscated Bitcoin as a strategic reserve.
The government is not selling or acquiring more Bitcoin but is holding existing assets.
Strategic reserves, including oil, have historically been mismanaged for political purposes.
Concerns exist that a Bitcoin reserve could be manipulated for political gain.
The U.S. dollar's status as the world's reserve currency could be impacted by legitimizing Bitcoin.
The Mar-a-Lago Accords propose restructuring U.S. debt by issuing long-term, zero-interest bonds to allies.
The U.S. debt is growing at an unsustainable rate, adding a trillion dollars every 90 days.
Innovative financial solutions are needed to address mounting national debt.
The idea of eliminating daylight savings time is seen as a common-sense policy change.
A previous initiative allowed the public to propose policy ideas to the government.
The cost of producing pennies has exceeded their face value, raising questions about their necessity.
Past shifts from silver to cheaper metals in coinage reflect economic adjustments over time.
Lowering interest rates could help mitigate debt burdens more than it would impact the housing market.
The U.S. missed opportunities to issue long-term, low-interest debt when rates were near zero.
International stocks are outperforming U.S. stocks year-to-date, with emerging market Europe leading at 16.9% gains.
The U.S. market is down 2%, marking a rare period of underperformance compared to global markets.
Technology stocks are underperforming, with the Nasdaq in correction territory, down over 10%.
Healthcare stocks are among the best performers, reflecting a rotation into defensive sectors.
Investors are showing a flight to quality, favoring large-cap, dividend-paying companies.
Market rotations between value and growth stocks continue as economic concerns persist.
Smaller-cap U.S. stocks remain weak, continuing their underperformance.
The DAX has quietly posted strong gains of around 10-12% this year, contrasting with the U.S. market's struggles.
Despite current declines, the overall market is still in a relatively stable range, with volatility expected but not severe downturns.
Experts anticipate a flat market year with moderate fluctuations rather than extreme moves up or down.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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The Future of Copper and Clean Energy with Gord Neal Mar 07, 2025

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Gord Neal, CEO of World Copper, joins us to talk about the future of copper! Gord shares his extensive experience and background in mining commodities. He emphasized copper's crucial role in the transition to clean energy, particularly for electric vehicles, power grids, and renewable energy infrastructure. Gord also talks about the potential impact of the new U.S. administration on mining policies, and how regulatory streamlining could accelerate domestic production and strengthen U.S. energy security.

We discuss...

Gord Neal, CEO of World Copper, has 25 years of experience in mining, specializing in metals like gold, silver, copper, and uranium.
He was a founder of Mag Silver, growing it from a $50M to a $2.5B market cap company, and led New Pacific Metals to a $1.2B valuation.
Copper is critical for the transition from fossil fuels to electric energy, as EVs and grid upgrades require significantly more copper than traditional vehicles and infrastructure.
The supply of copper is insufficient to meet the demand for 2030 and 2050 energy transition goals, requiring urgent increases in mining output.
Nuclear power is essential to meeting global energy needs, as wind and solar alone cannot provide sufficient or reliable power.
Copper remains the preferred metal for electrical applications due to its conductivity, durability, and cost-effectiveness compared to alternatives like silver.
The global copper deficit is around 100M tons, with new mining projects facing long lead times and high costs.
The U.S. needs to accelerate mining permits, particularly in copper-rich states like Arizona, to secure domestic supply.
The new Trump administration is expected to push for more mining and energy independence, potentially speeding up federal land permitting.
Copper demand is rising due to the shift toward electrification, requiring more wiring for vehicles and energy grids.
The U.S. power grid requires significant upgrades to support an electric vehicle transition, necessitating vast amounts of copper.
The slow progress in energy grid modernization is due to high costs, bureaucratic red tape, and lack of large-scale energy storage solutions.
Political and regulatory challenges impact the speed at which mining projects and energy infrastructure can develop.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth
Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance
Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/the-future-of-copper-gordan-neal-692

Buffett's Final Letter To Investors… Mar 05, 2025

Show notes

Today we discuss Buffett's final letter as his recent shareholder letter has just released. We talk about Buffett Indicator's warning of market overvaluation, and Berkshire Hathaway's rising cash reserves as a sign of potential caution in the markets. We also share on the increasing prevalence of subscription-based business models, frustrations over companies charging both upfront and recurring fees for services and the decline in customer service quality.

We discuss...

Big tech companies like Google have transitioned from offering free services to charging for storage and other features.
Some businesses push ineffective customer service to frustrate users into giving up on disputes.
AI-driven customer service is currently ineffective but may be the only long-term solution.
The Buffett Indicator suggests the stock market is highly overvalued.
Berkshire Hathaway's cash holdings are at their highest level in decades, signaling Buffett's cautious stance.
Buffett has been selling off major holdings like Apple and Bank of America.
An imminent crash isn't certain, but current valuations suggest a major correction could happen eventually.
The new administration brings uncertainties, disruptions, and a mix of good and bad outcomes.
Markets remain expensive, even with a potential 30% drop, which would still not bring valuations to historical lows.
Unlike past bubbles in tech (2000) and housing (2008), current market conditions do not show excessive leverage or structural financial weaknesses.
The markets may stay flat for several years as a form of correction rather than experiencing a sharp crash.
Warren Buffett's long-term strategy emphasizes holding cash to remain opportunistic rather than out of fear.
Market volatility is increasing, particularly in crypto, but recent overall movements remain relatively mild.
Investors should recognize that percentage declines translate into significant dollar losses as portfolios grow.
Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has maintained strong financial performance, particularly in insurance, despite market challenges.
Buffett's past standards for measuring success (10-year rolling average) are no longer being met, raising questions about future performance.
While historically successful, Buffett's recent decisions and investment strategy face growing hurdles.

Today's Panelists:

Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners

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For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/buffetts-final-letter-691

Disrupting Taxes with Thomas J. Cryan Feb 28, 2025

Show notes

Thomas J. Cryan joins us to discuss his new book Disrupting Taxes. He highlights how tariffs historically served as the primary source of U.S. federal revenue until the Civil War, after which income taxes took over. He criticizes the current tax system for its heavy reliance on individual salaries and argued for a more efficient, technology-driven approach. We also touch on the national debt, the need for a balanced budget, and concerns about government spending. Thomas advocates for a system that automatically adjusts tax rates to match expenditures.

We discuss...

Thomas J. Cryan shares his background as a writer, attorney, and entrepreneur with a focus on law and economics.
Cryan discusses his book Disrupting Taxes, inspired by the upcoming expiration of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2025.
The conversation shifts to the historical role of tariffs, particularly how they funded the U.S. government for its first 70 years.
The current tax system disproportionately burdens individuals, with 90% of federal revenue coming from salaries and income.
Cryan critiques the self-declaratory nature of income tax, arguing it leads to inefficiencies and inequities.
He proposes a 1% automated banking transaction tax to replace income tax and eliminate the IRS.
This system would tax all banking transactions equally, spreading the burden more fairly across the economy.
A proposed tax system would implement a flat 2% transaction tax, significantly lower than current income tax rates.
Government transactions would also be taxed, eliminating loopholes and ensuring transparency in spending versus tax collection.
While the system removes the IRS in its current form, some technological oversight would still be needed for enforcement.
Low tax rates could discourage avoidance, as the effort to evade 1% taxation may not be worth the hassle.
The U.S. tax system must consider global competition to remain economically viable.
Tariffs can be an economic tool but may create global trade imbalances and diplomatic tensions.
A technology-driven transaction tax system could increase efficiency and fairness over time.
Free market principles suggest that supply and demand will eventually create equilibrium despite policy shifts.
State and local governments operate under different tax systems, creating challenges in integrating federal tax changes.
Broadening the tax base at all levels could lead to lower rates and a fairer system overall.
States with high income taxes may consider adopting transaction-based taxation models.

For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/disrupting-taxes-thomas-j-cryan-690

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