Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

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Evergreen Gavekal's Hay: Goldilocks is not coming, but trouble is' Feb 14, 2024

Show notes

David Hay, co-chief investment officer at Evergreen Gavekal -- author of the Haymaker newsletter focused on macroeconomic research -- says that 'Pseudo prosperity is still prosperity,' and investors should like whatever they are getting from the economy now because he does not think it will last. Hay says the market "is almost all-in on Goldilocks," which will "make it hard to make money betting on the soft landing." Christopher Zook, president of CAZ Investments -- co-author of Tony Robbins' new book, "The Holy Grail of Investing" -- talks about the themes and the alternative investments that will drive the next decade or more while delivering oversized gains. Plus, in "The Financial Crunch," Cam Miller, chief revenue officer at Money Pickle, talks about how much money someone needs to have before turning to a financial adviser for help.

StockCharts' de Kempenaer: 'The stock market is crashing higher' Feb 13, 2024

Show notes

Julius de Kempenaer, senior technical analyst at StockCharts, says that the stock market is "crashing higher," having reached record levels with no signs of stopping but that doesn't mean he's buying now because he finds it over-stretched. De Kempenaer sees the market going through rotation right now, with money flowing from value into growth right now helping to push things higher. Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Beer Wholesalers Association returns to the show to discuss the January Beer Purchasers' Index, which showed that consumers have been responding to inflation by cutting back on the high-end beers and spending more on the below-premium drinks. Plus, insurance analyst Shannon Martin of Bankrate.com discusses the high and rising costs of auto insurance, and author Michael Graetz discusses his new book, "The Power to Destroy: How the Antitax Movement Hijacked America."

Commonwealth's McMillan: The other 493 S&P stocks are reasonably valued Feb 12, 2024

Show notes

Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, says that while market valuations are high right now on a historic basis -- which might make investors cautious -- the sky-high prices for the Magnificent Seven stocks that have been leading the market to record levels have left room for the other stocks in the index to be particularly reasonable. That means the market's overall valuation is more reasonable than headlines suggest, and there is room to grow in other sectors. Likewise, economists are feeling like economic policies are working well enough to avoid big problems like recession this year -- according to the latest Policy Survey from the National Association for Business Economics, released today; Lester Jones of the NABE survey committee discusses how economists still have some worries about fiscal policies and how the Federal Reserve might mess things up. Plus David Trainer of New Constructs revisits a Danger Zone pick that has fallen dramatically but that he thinks will go all the way to zero in due time, and author Jared Dillian talks about his new book "No Worries: How to Live a Stress-Free Financial Life" and how three key financial decisions will determine how easily you can avoid feeling day-to-day financial pressures.

Shelton's Rosenkranz: The market underestimates the chance of a hard landing Feb 09, 2024

Show notes

Jeff Rosenkranz, fixed income portfolio manager at Shelton Capital Management, says that if the Federal Reserve waits too long to cut rates or if systemic problems resurface -- including potential troubles with bank safety -- the economy could be due for more trouble than most observers expect. Rosenkranz expects to see a significant increase in credit troubles and defaults, noting that the classic default cycle that accompanies rate hikes hasn't really occurred yet, but that it's unlikely to be avoided completely. One area that has struggled with the rate cycle has been municipal bond funds, and Jonathan Mondillo, head of North American fixed income for abrdn, says that has pushed muni closed-end funds to record discount levels, but that has created opportunities for attractive income levels and heightened total return for investors willing to swim against the tide. In the "Talking Technicals" segment, Alex Coffey, senior trading strategist at Charles Schwab, says that with the Standard & Poor's 500 on the verge of the 5,000 level, the market has gotten beyond levels of resistance which creates significant opportunity for the market to run right up to the point where it runs out of steam, warning that these kind of rallies "typically don't end well." Plus, author Malissa Clark discusses finding the right work-life balance and her new book, "Never Not Working: Why the Always-On Culture Is Bad for Business--and How to Fix It."

Chapin Hill's Boyle says the market has gotten ahead of itself Feb 08, 2024

Show notes

Kathy Boyle, president of Chapin Hill Advisors, is worried that with 'all of Wall Street being bullish again," overblown earnings expectations, strong employment and the more getting the Federal Reserve to where it will wait longer before cutting rates, the stock market has gotten a bit overblown. As a result, she thinks there's a good chance of a short-term correction, potentially down to the 4,400 level on the Standard & Poor's 500, though she does think there's a good chance the market comes through that to finish the year on a positive note. Rick Gable, portfolio manager for the MFS Global Real Estate fund, takes stock in the real estate market, noting that while the entire business has made a lot of negative news, the sour stories mostly are impacting office space and the rest of the market is full of opportunities. Plus, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks at a young fund with a great three-year track record that can be an actively managed addition to the passive portions of a portfolio, and Chuck answers a listener's question about the fund offering filed Wednesday by hedge-fund manager Bill Ackman.

Picking advisers, investments and the winning Super Bowl indicator Feb 07, 2024

Show notes

Today, Money Life debuts its latest feature, The Financial Crunch with Money Pickle, a fin-tech company that is changing the financial world by making affordable and convenient financial coaching available to investors. Brent Thurman, Money Pickle's chief executive, discusses finding a financial adviser and how investors have it so much better now that technology can make the process smooth and easy. Kelley Wright, editor at Investment Quality Trends, returns to the show for the first time since 2017, and discusses his take on how to pick value stocks in the Market Call. Plus, Ken Costa, author of "The 100 Trillion Dollar Wealth Transfer: How the Handover from Boomers to Gen Z Will Revolutionize Capitalism," and Chuck discusses his Super Bowl Ad/IPO indicator, which suggests that the real losers of this weekend's big game will be investors in young companies advertising during the telecast.

Economist Thorne sees a growth shock ahead, 'but the U.S. will be fine' Feb 06, 2024

Show notes

Jim Thorne, economist/chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, says that "The Fed is the Fed of the world," and that how central bankers act in the United States act will determine the economic prospects of the rest of the world, and he worries that as the Federal Reserve tightens, it could over-tighten and create economic issues. He expects a growth shock, but says the U.S. will get through it and remain the best market to invest in around the globe. Michele Schneider, chief strategist at MarketGauge.com, says that the "inside sectors of the U.S. economy" -- small caps, retail and transportation -- will be the ones that tell the economic story moving forward; she says those sectors are still adjusting, to the end of zero-interest rate policy but are showing signs that there should be plenty of opportunity there for the rest of the year. Also, entrepreneur Madeline Pendleton discusses her new book, "I Survived Capitalism and All I Got Was This Lousy T-Shirt: Everything I Wish I Never Had to Learn About Money."

Global X's Palandrani looks at the power in lithium and copper stocks Feb 05, 2024

Show notes

Pedro Palandrani, head of research at Global X, says that the continued evolution of the electric vehicle market will make it so that lithium and copper companies are the next equivalent of the Big Oil stocks, but he worries that the industries are among the most sensitive globally to geopolitical risk, which he says investors should factor into their allocation decisions. In honor of the upcoming Valentine's Day holiday, David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs foregoes the Danger Zone in favor of talking about an attractive stock this week, and he singles out Photronics as a company which despite good recent numbers has a long way to go. Plus Dan Skubiz, chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at ZCM, makes his debut in the Market Call talking about investing in small=-cap stocks at a time when a few mega-cap names have been dominating the market.

Macro Tides' Welsh: '17-year cycle' calls for a peak, a correction, then a long downturn Feb 02, 2024

Show notes

Jim Welsh, author of "Macro Tides" and the "Weekly Technical Review" newsletters says that if the market can rally past recent highes -- with the Standard & Poor's 500 topping 4931 -- it will finish the market's recent rally and leave stocks vulnerable to a small correction over the next few months. That said, Welsh believes in a 17-year cycle that his charts show dates back nearly 100 years, and that cycle is cooking up a coming secular bear market that ultimately could last for a decade and crater the market in the process. Susan Fahy discusses the latest "CreditGauge" measures from VantageScore, which show that the consumer is showing signs of financial stress, but the action hasn't been as bad in most areas as the headlines might suggest. Ian Merrill of SCG Asset Management and The Alternative Strategies Income Fund talks about how money managers can add derivatives to a portfolio in ways that mitigate risks but goose returns over the long haul, and Vince Lorusso, president/portfolio manager of Clough Capital, talks valuation investing in the Market Call.

VettaFi's Rosenbluth: These market conditions call for equal-weight plays Feb 01, 2024

Show notes

Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, says investors should be looking at an equal-weighted approach to the market -- allowing all winners to have a chance to succeed -- despite the strong 2023 put up by the Standard & Poor's 500, a market-cap weighted index whose results were dominated by the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks. Rosenbluth made the Invesco S&P 500 Equal-Weight Technology ETF his ETF of the Week, noting that while the tech sector is a big part of most asset allocations, most of the money has been going into the few names rather than the broad group of stocks. Also on the show, Ted Rossman on the latest Bankrate.com study on financial infidelity, which showed that 40 percent of people in live-in romantic relationships are keeping financial secrets from their spouse or partner. Long-time financial journalist and money coach Lynette Khalfani-Cox returns to the show to discuss financial literacy efforts, student loan repayments, money media and more, and Rob Isbitts brings the methodology that's behind his new site -- ETFYourself.com -- to the Market Call.

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