Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

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VettaFi's Rosenbluth says rate cuts are a time to go active in bond funds Oct 17, 2024

Show notes

Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, says that the start of a rate-cutting cycle is a time when investors will want low-cost active management — rather than an index fund — in the fixed-income space. To that end, he picks a T. Rowe Price fund that uses a quantitative management style as his ETF of the Week, noting it can do the job for investors looking to diversify their fixed-income holdings. Jessica Johnston, senior director for NCOA's Center for Economic Well-Being In the U.S., discusses a recent survey by the group which showed that 80 percent of older Americans face a real risk of financial insecurity, Chuck discusses what investors and savers are facing — regardless of which side wins the election — when it comes to decisions on tax legislation that expires in 2025, covering everything from tax rates and the standard deduction to the child tax credit,estate tax exemptions and much more. And in the Market Call, Kathy Boyle of Chapin Hill Advisors discusses how she uses ETFs in pursuing core-and-explore investment strategy.

Chuck's Halloween 'Trade or treat' has a new twist for kids this year Oct 16, 2024

Show notes

For about a decade, Chuck has offered the kids in his neighborhood a chance to pick cash or candy, to decide between a trade or a treat. It's part of his belief that even young kids are able to understand and make basic financial decisions, deciding if they would rather have candy or if the financial prize is worth more to them because it's different and more useful than candy. He always encourages others to put their own stamp on the idea with kids in their neighborhood, but each year Chuck also tweaks the game, making subtle changes to keep things interesting for the kids (and himself). This year, he is making a change to the "lottery option" that might make it appear that the children have a better chance at winning big by going that route, but instead makes it so that the children would almost certainly be better off picking any choice but the lottery option. Phil Moeller, author of "Get What's Yours for Medicare: Maximize Your Coverage, Minimize Your Costs," discusses the daunting process that Americans face in trying to maximize their money and health-care coverage under the Medicare program; Moeller believes that the most valuable unread documents in America are Medicare enrollment documents. Plus Joe Schmitz Jr. of Peak Retirement Planning answers three questions from audience members all about converting traditional IRAs to Roth IRAs, and how to determine if paying taxes now is worth the ability to never pay taxes on the investments later.

Mariner's Krumpelman sets a 6,600 target for the market by year-end 2025 Oct 15, 2024

Show notes

Jeff Krumpelman, chief investment strategist at Mariner Wealth Advisors, expects the Standard & Poor's 500 should hit 6,000 by mid-2025, but he acknowledges that those gains might surprise him by coming early, turning 2024 potentially into a "super year," which would turn 2025 into a less-stellar environment. Either way, he expects the market to take a brief breather before a potential rebound for the end of the year carrying the market into the new year. Matt Zajechowski, research analyst at Northstar Inbound, discusses a survey the group did for JeffBet on the most expensive concerts in terms of ticket price per minutes the act typically plays. Chuck answers a listener's question following up on a recent interview that looked at certificates of deposit rates and how investors might play CDs now that rate-cutting has started, and Paige Henderson, senior portfolio manager on the Resilient Global Equity team at Allspring Global Investments, talks about playing defense now, before the market makes conditions more tenuous.

Zacks' Mian: The soft landing is happening right now Oct 14, 2024

Show notes

Sheraz Mian, director of research at Zacks Investment Research, says that the cumulative effect of the Federal Reserve's rate cycle starts showing up, it will goose the economy and the stock market, and with the worst of the post-Covid struggles behind us, the "soft landing" most experts forecast is actually what we're experiencing now, and that better times — and continued strong corporate earnings — are ahead, without a big correction or downturn in the interim. Mian isn't the only one expressing bullish sentiment, as Charles Rotblut, editor of AAII Journal checks in with the details of the latest AAII investor sentiment survey, which has shown particularly high levels of bullish sentiment for about two months now, but who notes that the market typically delivers unimpressive gains when emotions are running high. David Trainer of New Constructs re-affirms the past selection of Affirm Holdings in The Danger Zone, noting that the stock's recent gains of about 70 percent have simply positioned it to take another big fall, as he believes investors have bought the hype and ignored the reality of the company's struggles to deliver real profits. Plus, Money Life introduces its latest sponsor, Monetary Metals; Saad Zein, chief portfolio officer for Monetary Metals, discusses how the company enables investors to earn interest on their gold and silver holdings — paid in precious metals — and how generating that income changes what many people consider the biggest weakness and turn-off to putting money into silver and gold.

Crossmark's Fernandez: The piper's bill is coming due next year Oct 11, 2024

Show notes

Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says investors will have to pay the piper for the market's last two years of out-sized gains, and she thinks the music will start playing early in 2025. While she thinks the market will avoid a big recession and/or market crash — and in fact thinks the market will rebound quickly around the mid-year mark — she thinks earnings will slow, incomes may fall and the consumer will start to cut back after the holiday season, which will contribute to that period where the market cools. Plus, investors flooded into certificates of deposit as interest rates were spiking in 2022 and '23, and now those CDs are coming due and monies reinvested just as a rate-cutting cycle has started; John Blizzard, chief executive officer of CD Valet, discusses how CD investors should shop around and think about maturities, as they pursue the best deals still available for their safest assets. In The NAVigator, John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors and chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, discusses interval funds and digs into the data on four funds that put a unique spin on the structure to create interesting alternative opportunities for investors now.

Fort Washington's Sargen: No landing looks likely, but isn't all good Oct 10, 2024

Show notes

Nick Sargen, senior economic advisor at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, doesn't see a recession as imminent but he says a lot of the good news has already been priced into the stock market, which will lead to slower gains or sideways performance moving forward. Sargen says that market observers expecting a soft landing were thinking that situation would allow the Federal Reserve to aggressively cut interest rates; in a no-landing scenario, however, investors should not expect the rapid rate cuts or the big rally that typically comes with a rate-reduction cycle. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes Neuberger Berman Option Strategy his "ETF of the Week," discussing where this kind of alternative fund fits into an investor's portfolio, and in the Market Call, Jay Hatfield, chief executive officer at Infrastructure Capital Advisors mixes macro big-picture observations with the micro of solid fundamentals to identify interesting income-producing stocks.

Johnson's Ceci sees normalized earnings leading to a sideways market Oct 09, 2024

Show notes

Dominic Ceci, chief investment officer at Johnson Financial Group, says that investors can't expect the stock market — after 20-plus percent gains in 2023 and this year — to roll along at that pace indefinitely, noting that record highs have stocks trading well above their normal range relative to earnings. If earnings normalize and growth slows a little bit, the economy can stay strong while the market goes through a long sideways or slightly down period, likely lasting for much of next year. He says in The Big Interview that kind of benign scenario is more likely than a hard landing or big market declines. Matt Kaufman, head of ETFs at Calamos Investments, discusses the firm's latest structured products, which are tied to the stock market, but which use options to virtually ensure that losses are impossible; he explains how they work and where they might fit into investment portfolios. Plus, with big Powerball and MegaMillions jackpots on the line this week, Matt Zajechowski discusses research he did for Lucky.me showing which states have produced the most big jackpot winners — and the states where no one has ever claimed the biggest prize — as well as which numbers have proven to be luckiest — and the least lucky — when it comes to grand prizes in the past.

Ithaca Wealth's Fox says the market needs time to digest its gains Oct 08, 2024

Show notes

Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management, says that while it is always bullish to have the stock market in record-high range, the 20-plus percent gains of 2023 and again this year are setting up a long period of digestion/sideways movement that may last for much of 2025. He sees the stock market with room to keep running for now, noting that he thinks the market can gain about 7 percent from current levels before resistance digs in. When that happens, he's not expecting any sort of sharp reversal or crash, just flat markets while the market adjusts. Brian Reisinger discusses his book,"Land Rich Cash Poor: My Family's Hope and the Untold History of the Disappearing American Farmer," and how the future of farming could play out at a time when demands for food are rising but the number of farms providing that food is shrinking. In the Market Call, Steven Grey of Grey Value Management discusses how he combines classic value investing with what he calls "valuation investing" to find situations in which significant mispricings become his future profits.

Tocqueville's Petrides: Market shifts mean diversification pays offing '25 Oct 07, 2024

Show notes

Tocqueville's Petrides: John Petrides, portfolio manager for Tocqueville Asset Management, says that while the market has gotten to all-time highs riding large-cap growth stocks for roughly seven years, there are undercurrents changing beneath the surface that will make diversification pay off in 2025. He notes that the market can go through a soft landing scenario while changing market leadership and he thinks the market can avoid a major downturn provided that inflation doesn't prove much stickier than expected and if earnings prove to be weaker than they currently appear. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, revisits Opendoor Technologies, which he says is no longer a zombie stock and worthy of being in the Danger Zone, although that doesn't mean the stock — now trading below two bucks a share after having been hammered while in the Danger Zone — is worth buying. Nick Pisano discusses a Clever Real Estate survey which showed that more than half of the Baby Boomers who currently owns a home expect to live in their house to the end, never selling it, although the study also shows most older homeowners being in line for big profits when they do sell. Silas Myers, portfolio manager and chief executive officer at Mar Vista Investment Partners, makes his debut in the Market Call discussing why he favors big-time compounders trading at good valuations.

S&P's Gruenwald: The current rally has legs, especially amid a soft landing Oct 04, 2024

Show notes

Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S&P Global Ratings, discusses his 2024 fourth-quarter economic outlook, which suggests that the recent rally can continue especially as the economy transitions into what he expects will be its first soft landing in more than three decades. Gruenwald says the economy has been "super-resilient," and he expects that to continue unless the strong labor market falters and cracks, and the bond market stops absorbing U.S. debt at low interest rates. Gruenwald also agrees with some of the observations made by economists who took part in the National Association for Business Economics September 2024 Outlook Survey, which economist Mervin Jebaraj discusses with Chuck. In The NAVigator segment, Sean Feeley of the U.S. high yield investment group at Barings, talks about the impact the rate-cutting cycle will have on high-yield/junk investment, and Elysabeth Alfano, chief executive officer at VegTech — which runs the VegTech Plant-based Innovation & Climate ETF — brings her unique perspective on companies with wide-moat sustainable business models to the Money Life Market Call.

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