Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

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Invesco's Levitt: Expect lower earnings, higher volatility and modest market gains Jun 20, 2025

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Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, says that he came into the year expecting that the growth and inflation backdrop would support reasonable corporate earnings that could push the market higher. He still believes that -- despite expecting a slowdown, struggles with increased market volatility and higher inflation as a result of tariff impacts -- and said that modest earnings growth will result in single-digit equity gains for the rest of the year. Levitt made the case for expanded international investments, but said he would lean into quality as a factor, noting that high-grade companies will give the most shelter if the storm clouds deliver more trouble than Levitt and Invesco are currently forecasting. Certified financial therapist Nate Astle discusses a B eyond Finance study which showed the deep connections between financial strain and emotional well-being, suggesting that money isn't just a numbers game but a mental-health issue. Plus John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors, answers listener questions about closed-end funds and whether premiums and returns of capital are as bad for investors as they are cracked up to be, whether interval funds are worth the illiquidity risk and more.

NY Life's Hermann: 'We have a lot of risk and almost none of that is priced in' Jun 18, 2025

Show notes

Julia Hermann, global market strategist at New York Life Investments, says she is concerned about market volatility for the remainder of the year, especially as tariff impacts work their way further into the economy and as we see some resolution on their status. While tariffs pose the risk of creating an exogenous shock — precisely what Hermann worried about triggering a recession when she last visited the show in February — she says that recession risk now is actually lower than it was when trade policies were made public in early April. She also discusses the firm's 2025 MegaTrends report, which looks at global debt investing, talking about how deficit spending and other concerns will impact credit markets over the next decade. Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, checks in ahead of today's Fed meeting and announcement on what he expects from central bankers for the remainder of the year and whether cuts — whenever they start — will have the classic result investors are clamoring for. Plus Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a play on the market's recent momentum with his pick for the "ETF of the Week."

Wells Fargo's Christopher expects market, economic pullbacks through the end of '25 Jun 17, 2025

Show notes

It's a tale of two forecasts on today's edition of Money Life, as two experts come to very different conclusions of how 2025 will play out. In The Big Interview, Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy for the Wells Fargo Investment Institute says he expects the market to drop "5 to 10 percent easily" as tariffs, accompanying inflation and a slowing economy take hold during the third quarter and stick around for at least six months. Christopher notes that surprises could push the market down even further, back to or past April lows, but he noted that he'd be buying there, because he believes the United States was oversold early this year and will represent a particularly good value once it digests the expected downturn. In the Talking Technicals interview, however, Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management, sets a 7000 target for the Standard & Poor's 500, up about 20 percent from current levels in the next 12 months. Fox says the sell-off in April did a lot of the "technical damage" necessary to set up a rally, and has us now at a point where "the path of least resistance is higher." Fox's forecast, however, also is based on solid fundamentals, which he believes can overcome the current headline risks that are dominating the landscape now. Plus Drake Shadwell discusses the latest research from Clever Real Estate showing the current trends on how long houses are staying on the market and what that means for the strength or weakness of the economy.

Northwestern Mutual's Schutte: Markets won't be 'straight up and to the right' Jun 16, 2025

Show notes

Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co., says that "Asset classes don't die, they just go to sleep for awhile," and they wake up when there are changes to the macroeconomic backdrop. He says that domestic strategies about trade, tariffs and global defense represent that background change, which is why he's recommending diversification, and considering commodities, international stocks and more. Schutte says he's expecting rate cuts late in the year and thinks the economy can avoid recession, but not a slowdown. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, finishes the firm's three-week look at troubling dividend trends, this week focusing on "dividend traps," companies where the current price is so high that a big decline would mean that the dividend isn't worth sticking around for. Previously, New Constructs featured "fake dividend stocks" and "false dividend stocks" in The Danger Zone. Plus economist Brian Lewandowski of the University of Colorado Boulder looks at the June 2025 Outlook Survey from the National Association for Business Economics, out today, which showed that economists expect sluggish economic growth and persistent, higher inflation into 2026; on average, the economists felt those conditions were not likely to create a recession.

LPL's Turnquist: 'You want to be buying dips and not selling rips right now' Jun 13, 2025

Show notes

Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial says he expects the market has enough momentum to break through to new record highs, and soon. Led by tech stocks, Turnquist expects the move off the April lows to continue, though he acknowledges that the macro backdrop "is extremely messy." If the market can overcome trade uncertainties, Turnquist says that when new highs are achieved three months apart, it is typically a good sign that a volatile market can continue overcome bad news and continue upward trends. The NAVigator segment features an interviewed taped in New York at the Active Investment Company Alliance BDC Forum with Tonnie Wybensinger, head of government relations for the Small Business Investors Association, an industry advocacy group who discusses current legislation that would give BDC investors a tax break and how legislation on esoteric subjects like business-development companies gets passed. Natalie Iannello, discusses a Howdy.com survey which showed that the average American now believes they need $105,000 a year to live comfortably, which is a problem when you consider that other research shows the average American salary at about $66,000. Plus, it's Chuck birthday, and he shares a birthday wish for his financial situation, and yours.

Oppenheimer's Penn is watching how credit losses weigh on BDCs Jun 12, 2025

Show notes

Mitchel Penn, managing director at Oppenheimer & Co. — interviewed at the Active Investment Company Alliance BDC Forum in New York on Wednesday — says that credit losses for business development companies during the first quarter of 2025 were more than double the level they have been at for the last few years. He says some of that increase could be attributed to the market's reaction to government policies, but that it also could be that interest rates have stayed higher for so long now that they are starting to create credit-quality issues. He said BDCs can still deliver returns in the range of 9% moving forward, though he warned that an increasing number of business-development companies may struggle to earn their dividends, making it important for investors to be avoid simply chasing a high yield. Also from the BDC Forum, Bob Marcotte, president at Gladstone Capital Corp., discussed how government policies are encouraging business investment and capital expenditures which should create outstanding conditions for private credit, and therefore BDCs, to shine. Plus, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, checks in with a short-duration Treasury fund that uses options to goose its yield as his ETF of the Week, and Chuck discusses the growing threat to investors and the economy from breakdowns and cuts impacting the way the country's economic statistics are tracked and maintained.

Merrill's Quinlan: Market will still hit '25 targets while avoiding recession Jun 11, 2025

Show notes

Joe Quinlan, head of CIO market strategy for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, says the market "got wrong-footed coming into January," expecting a pro-business administration but stumbling instead due to the tariffs, but he says that as the economy starts to get to the other side and have some clarity, he still sees the Standard & Poor's 500 hitting the same goals his team set for it at the beginning of the year at 6,600. While he would like to see the market make and hold new highs to prove that the rebound from April lows can hold, he says that there will not be a recession this year or next without some man-made event like the Federal Reserve making a mistake by moving rates too much or too soon. While Quinlan is confident that there won't be a recession, most Americans disagree; Emily Fanous discusses a survey done for Howdy.com which showed that more than half of Americans think a recession is in the offing — within the next year — and that many are starting to change financial habits to prepare for that downturn now. Plus, veteran international fund manager Bernie Horn of Polaris Global Value talks stocks in the Market Call.

AAII's Rotblut on what investors are saying and doing with their money now Jun 10, 2025

Show notes

Charles Rotblut, vice president for the American Association of Individual Investors — the keeper of the group's sentiment and asset-allocation surveys — discusses how investors are becoming increasingly neutral in their sentiment but increasingly aggressive in their investment plans. Neutral sentiment — the expectation that the market will remain flat over the next six months — has been on the rise, as Americans feel better about the market without necessarily being optimistic; meanwhile, their asset allocations are taking on more stocks. Mostly, however, Rotblut notes that most investors should keep their emotions in check and let the headlines play out, mostly riding out the storm with a long-term investment plan in place. Veteran investment adviser Stephen Akin, founder of Akin Investments, mixes technical analysis with fundamental stock details in the Money Life Market Call, and Chuck answers a listener's question about retirement-savings basics, which tax-advantaged accounts to use and how to prioritize your savings.

Veteran manager says bond market sees no recession, few rate cuts, controlled inflation Jun 09, 2025

Show notes

Dan Carter, senior portfolio manager at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, says that the bond market "is pricing in a very benign outcome for everything that has been going on and all of the risks that are out there," and the stock market mostly seems to be agreeing with that assessment. While Carter's forecast calls for slow growth, he thinks the chances are that it stops short of a recession, and that any downturn is likely to be short-lived as the market and economy digest the headlines and move on. Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, puts "fake dividend stocks" in The Danger Zone, building on the idea of "false dividend stocks" that David Trainer, the company's president, highlighted a week ago. Pamela Ladd discusses an American Institute of CPAs survey which found that women are markedly more concerned than men about the deterioration of their financial situation in the last 12 months, and Chuck goes off the news on how the Labor Department recently changed its guidance concerning cryptocurrencies in retirement plans, and whether that will result in more unsophisticated investors loading up their 401k plans with Bitcoin.

Veteran strategist says market needs a breakout to prove this is no bear-market rally Jun 06, 2025

Show notes

Technical analyst Willie Delwiche, the founder of Hi Mount Research, says that "New highs are the most bullish thing that stocks can do," and he says investors need to see a return to record-high levels for proof that the current rebound is more than just a bear-market rally. He expects the market to be held hostage by headlines and range-bound — bouncing between the market's February peak and the April post-tariff-announcement lows — until there is some clarity on tariffs, interest rates and more. He expects large-cap growth stocks to keep leading the way domestically, and says that the international rally has room to continue because money has been rotating away from U.S. assets toward more global positions. Michael Grant, co-chief investment officer at Calamos Investments — co-manager of the Calamos Long/Short Equity & Dynamic Income Trust — says that current market conditions have made it that bonds are no longer a natural working hedge for market downturns, with downside risk that can be worse than what stocks are facing. Eric Lutton, co-chief investment officer at Sound Income Strategies — manager of the Sound Enhanced Fixed Income ETF — talks business-development companies, real estate investment trusts and more in the Market Call.

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