Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

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'Shrinkflation' isn't fooling consumers, and it carries bad side effects Aug 01, 2022

Show notes

Sheldon Jacobson, a University of illinois professor who specializes in operations research, discusses shrinkflation -- where companies hold prices steady but reduce packaging sizes as a means of disguising rising costs -- and says that while the trend is prevalent right now, it works poorly in high-inflation markets because consumers are only caught unaware for a moment. While consumers wake up to the trend and focus on unit prices, Jacobson says that shrinkflation has heavy costs on society, increasing packaging costs, waste production and more that are largely ignored. The show today also looks at the latest "mind the Gap" study from Morningstar with Amy Arnott, portfolio strategist for the research firm, who says that consumers continue seeing their personal performance lag behind the results of the funds they own, a sign of chasing performance and having poor timing results. In the Danger Zone segment, investment analyst Kyle Guske focuses on Beyond Meat, another "zombie stock" being pushed to the edge of bankruptcy by rising interest rates and changing economic conditions, and in the Market Call, Chris McMahon, president of Aquinas Wealth, makes his debut on the show and talks stock investing.

BlackRock's Senra: Fed's plan creates opportunities for patient investors Jul 29, 2022

Show notes

Armando Senra, head of Americas ETF and Index business for BlackRock, says that the Federal Reserve's message this week cleared a path for a slower pace of tightening over the remainder of the year, but that investors must embrace volatility and sustained inflation to take advantage of the market environment. Senra says that weathering the current market storm requires investors with a long-term outlook willing to look past current events to see the industries that will be poised for a comeback when economic conditions improve. In The NAVigator segment, portfolio manager Tim Ryan from Nuveen covers the municipal bond market and how it is disconnected with the Treasury market's inverted yield curve to offer some bounce-back potential for the second half of the year. Also on the show, Jake Wujastyk of TrendSpider.com discusses the market's technicals and how it is trying hard to find a level and build a base for the next rally, and in the Market Call, Art Amador of Equbot talks about using artificial intelligence and machine learning as a means of selecting stocks.

Leuthold Group's Wang: The Fed's job gets much tougher next year Jul 28, 2022

Show notes

Chun Wang, senior analyst and portfolio manager at the Leuthold Group, says that the market has priced in a shallow recession -- a near soft landing -- but that the Federal Reserve's record of engineering such a smooth outcome is poor, leaving a strong chance that the central bank tightens too much and dramatically increases the risk and severity of recession. Wang believes that inflation has peaked or nearly peaked, but that it will likely settle in around 5 percent -- a level higher than the Fed wants -- eliminating the obvious moves and leaving much harder choices amid a damaged market in 2023. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi talks about two key factors in today's market -- high quality and low volatility -- in picking his ETF of the Week, Giles Coghlan, chief currency analyst at HYCM returns to help Chuck answer an audience member's question on trying to take advantage of changes in exchange rates around the strengthening dollar, and Charles Rotblut of the American Association of Individual Investors discusses the 'expected value' of buying a Mega Millions ticket for this week's billion-dollar lottery, and why this is one of the rare times when it makes investment sense to take a flyer.

The Fed's cure for inflation might kill global economic growth Jul 27, 2022

Show notes

Giles Coghlan, chief currency analyst at HYCM, says that the economy is reaching a turning point where the Federal Reserve must consider slowing interest rate hikes or risk that those increases will kill off economic growth. Coghlan notes that while all central banks are dealing with this now, the US economy will have the largest impact on the potential for a global recession. Also on the show, Dan DeYoung, portfolio manager for Columbia Threadneedle's floating rate and high-yield bond funds discusses how rate hikes are impacting the credit markets and whether higher rates will trigger significantly greater levels of corporate defaults, Matt Schulz discusses a LendingTree study of how consumers are changing back-to-school shopping habits in the face of higher prices, and Chuck talks about a way to get a win out of the upcoming $1 billion MegaMillions jackpot without even buying a ticket.

Clocktower's Papic: High inflation 'is going to destroy tech' Jul 26, 2022

Show notes

Marko Papic, chief strategist at the Clocktower Group, says that while inflation in the range of 3 to 6 percent "will not kill" consumers, it will kill the technology sector because any unprofitable tech companies can't keep borrowing at super low rates to keep the business rolling while they get to profitability. He believes other markets besides the United States are better positioned to support their technology businesses moving forward, which is part of a trend that will see investors want to own China and Japan and Europe during times while inflation remains high. Also on the show, Nathan Furr, author of "The Upside of Uncertainty: A Guide to Finding Possibility in the Unknown," discusses how consumers and savers can lean into the uncertainty of current times and markets to find a path to something better and more interesting, Christian Mitchell of Northwestern Mutual discusses the latest release from the firm's 2022 Planning and Progress Study, which showed how planning significantly improved investor satisfaction and confidence during the current downturn, and Chuck answers a listener's question about I-bonds.

See how the market impacts future spending, not just account balance Jul 25, 2022

Show notes

Justin Fitzpatrick, co-founder of Income Lab, says that while investors and retirement savers are starting to freak out about what the market has done to their portfolio values, they should be considering instead whether recent declines have actually impacted their ability to afford the retirement lifestyle they're planning. Funding your lifestyle is what matters in retirement, Fitzpatrick says, while movements in the market are fleeting and may not have much impact on retirement income. Zoe Barry of Zingeroo looks at how investors on the platform have been changing their behaviors in current markets, noting that many younger investors have turned away from the things they know and are comfortable with -- which was pushing them toward meme stocks and popular names -- to broaden out their holdings now. Also on the show, Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America discusses the National Association for Business Economics July 2022 Business Conditions Survey released today, and David Trainer of New Constructs puts SNAP Inc. back in the Danger Zone, saying the big losses it has suffered don't make it immune from losing the rest of its value.

Economist Reinhart: 'No safe place for an investor right now, except cash' Jul 22, 2022

Show notes

Vincent Reinhart, chief economist and macro strategist for Dreyfus and Mellon, says there is "no safe place for an investor right now except cash" and inflation-protected securities, due to high inflation and the Federal Reserve's inability to this point to get prices under control. As a result, Reinhart says that the economy is either in or entering a shallow recession, with a recovery that could take a while to arrive and that might not be particularly robust when it gets here. Ed Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, talks technical analysis and why investors are so cautious about risky assets now and why they're not likely to act differently to the market until there's a reason for optimism return until inflation is no longer the primary driver for markets; Timothy Reick, chief executive officer at Liberty Street Advisors -- advisor to the Private Shares Fund -- discusses why private equity is an asset class that is not correlated to the broad stock market that individual investors largely overlook in their portfolios. And in the Market Call, Jason Herried, director of equity strategies at Johnson Financial Group, talks about investing in mutual funds and ETFs and balancing long-term portfolio plans with shorter-term market opportunities.

MFS' Weisman: The sooner the recession comes, the better Jul 21, 2022

Show notes

Erik Weisman, chief economist at MFS Investments, says the macro environment is headed lower and weaker and will take the stock market with it, and while he does not expect this to lead to "a horrible outcome," but with the Federal Reserve likely to raise interest rates above ts comfort level in order to combat inflation, he has little doubt that a recession is coming. Weisman expects current challenges to last into 2023, but he is hopeful that the recession will come quickly to help it pass; he notes that if the recession doesn't happen until later in 2023, "it will be that much more difficult to achieve a soft landing." In the ETF of the Week, Tom Lydon of VettaFi.com looks at the long bonds and says they belong on investors' watch lists if trend lines keep moving in improving directions; in the Market Call, Gerry Frigon, chief investment officer at Taylor Frigon Capital Management talks about growth investing and how the market's slow start to the year has put a lot of good businesses down to where they are compelling long-term values for investors willing to wait out a recovery.

Franklin Templeton's Dover on why this market has experts arguing Jul 20, 2022

Show notes

Steven Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton -- head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute -- says that the current stock market and economic situation is not going to play out exactly like some scenario from the past, so that experts are wasting their time harkening back to the 1970s or any other period to draw their forecasts. While many experts will say there's a mild recession in the offing, Dover says that anyone making that prediction needs to consider that there is the potential for something worse. In searching for safe havens, Dover notes that fixed income "now makes more sense than it did at the peak of the market," due to relative price differences caused by the stock and bond markets falling simultaneously through the first half of the year. Also on the show, Jeff Ptak, chief ratings officer at Morningstar, talks about research showing that star ratings -- which were always described as being backward-looking and not good predictors of future results -- actually have benefits in forecasting which funds will be solid future performers, and Chuck answers a listener's question about sequence-of-return risk and whether holding extra cash could help defeat it.

MarketGauge's Schneider: Market is stuck in a range, but could break down from here Jul 19, 2022

Show notes

Michele Schneider, director of trading education at MarketGauge.com, says she has limited exposure to the stock market right now because technical analysis shows the market as being "stuck in a range," that she thinks is likely to end with a downward move, which could last until inflation problems are resolved. Schneider says the dollar could be peaking right now, which could create a prolonged boost for precious metals, "which we think haven't really woken up right now." Also on the show, Marketwatch columnist and editor Rex Nutting discusses his recent period about why Americans are so grumpy about the economy in a period where a deep dive through the numbers proves that conditions aren't as bad as angry investors and consumers are making them out to be. In the Market Call, Andrey Kutusov, portfolio manager at Seven Canyons Advisors, talks about being a growth-stock investor at a time when the market is showing signs of limited growth.

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