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Money For the Rest of Us

A personal finance and investing podcast on money, how it works, how to invest it and how to live without worrying about it. J. David Stein is a former Chief Investment Strategist and money manager. For close to two decades, he has been teaching individuals and institutions how to invest and handle their finances in ways that are simple to understand. More info at moneyfortherestofus.com

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Latest Episodes:

How to Navigate the Crippling Home Insurance Crisis Jun 05, 2024

Show notes

Why are homeowners seeing home insurance premiums increases of up to 70%, as David has? What can you do if your insurer drops you, you get a huge premium increase, or you can no longer afford coverage?

Topics covered include:

What are the primary drivers of home insurance price increases
Why these increases don't show up in the U.S. consumer price index
How the reinsurance market works and why reinsurers are passing on 50% premium increases to property and casualty insurers.
What percentage of home insurers self-insure
What else can homeowners do

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Show Notes

Home Insurance Is Clobbering Consumers. Yet It’s Barely Counted in Inflation. by Jeanna Smialek—The New York Times

NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts: Chapter 5: Personal Consumption Expenditures—Bureau of Economic Analysis

The crippling home insurance crisis hitting America by Rana Forhoohar—The Financial Times

The Hidden Driver of Soaring Home Insurance Costs by Jean Eaglesham—The Wall Street Journal

When Disaster Strikes: Preparing for Climate Change by Seán Nolan and Krishna Srinivasan—IMF Blog

Home insurance was once a ‘must.’ Now more homeowners are going without. by Patrick Cooley—The Washington Post

Homeowners Perception of Weather Risks 2023 Q2 Consumer Survey—Insurance Information Institute

Insurance Companies Feeling the Pressure in Iowa and the Midwest by Jerry Theodorou—Insurance Journal

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Beyond Faster (T+1) Trade Settlements: The Hidden Costs of Optimization May 29, 2024

Show notes

Why stock, ETF, and bond trades are optimized to settle in less than a day, allowing investors quicker access to their cash and securities. What are the benefits and costs of optimization in the relentless drive for cheaper, faster, and more profitable.

Why countries are moving to T+1 settlement from T+2 for security trades
What will it take for secur
How BlackRock and Franklin have launched Treasury funds that are tokenized and trade on the Etherium network
How optimization works and what are the tradeoffs
How we can use satisficing and rules of thumb in order to cope with the complexity of the world

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Show Notes

About the ‘T+1’ Rule Making US Stocks Settle in a Day by Lydia Beyoud and Greg Ritchie—Bloomberg

SEC Chair Gensler Statement on Upcoming Implementation of T+1 Settlement Cycle—SEC

What faster trading cycles will mean for US markets by Jennifer Hughes and Harriet Clarfelt—The Financial Times

Speedier Wall Street Trades Are Putting Global Finance On Edge by Greg Ritchie—Bloomberg

BlackRock closes in on crown of world’s largest bitcoin fund by Will Schmitt and Brooke Masters—The Financial Times

Optimal Illusions: The False Promise of Optimization by Coco Krumme

Financial Statement Analysis with Large Language Models by Alex G. Kim, Maximilian Muhn, and Valeri V. Nikolaev—The University of Chicago

Related Episodes

457: AI’s Fork in the Road: Societal Bliss or Existential Threat

329: Meme Stocks, GameStop, Short Squeezes, and Bubbles

228: How Tokenization Will Radically Change Investing

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National Debt Masterclass Finale - What To Do May 22, 2024

Show notes

In part three of our national debt masterclass, we share a simple debt dynamics formula we can monitor to help guide our investment choices.

Topics covered include:

How much has the national debt grown over the past fifties years, and what are the underlying drivers
How the budget deficit, interest rates, and economic growth determine the level and growth in the national debt
Under what circumstances will the U.S. default on its debt
How should we invest to protect ourselves from the uncertainties of the national debt situation

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Show Notes

Jerome Powell: Full 2024 60 Minutes interview transcript—CBS News

Yellen says she disagrees with Moody's outlook on US debt by Ann Saphir and David Lawder—Reuters

IMF Steps Up Its Warning to US Over Spending and Ballooning Debt by Christopher Condon—Bloomberg

WHEN DOES FEDERAL DEBT REACH UNSUSTAINABLE LEVELS?—Penn Wharton

The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2024 to 2054—Congressional Budget Office

PUBLIC DEBT AND LOW INTEREST RATES by Olivier J. Blanchard—NBER

Bond vigilantes snooze as Treasury market shrugs off vast US borrowing by Kate Duguid—The Financial Times

Term Premium on a 10 Year Zero Coupon Bond—FRED

Instantaneous Forward Term Premium 10 Years Hence—FRED

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National Debt Masterclass Part Two May 15, 2024

Show notes

In part two of this national debt series, we explore how households and businesses, including commercial banks, can choose not to participate in what some call a national debt ponzi scheme. We also look at how central banks and federal governments monetize the national debt using quantitative easing.

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Show Notes

Credit and Liquidity Programs and the Balance Sheet: Federal Reserve liabilities—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

As of and for the Years Ended December 31, 2019 and 2018 and Independent Auditors’ Report—The United States Federal Reserve System

Different types of central bank insolvency and the central role of seignorage by Ricardo Reis

How do central banks control inflation? A guide for the perplexed by Laura Castillo-Martinez and Ricardo Reis

Can the Central Bank Alleviate Fiscal Burdens? by Ricardo Reis

Ricardo Reis Tweets on Monetizing the National Debt

M2—Federal Reserve Economic Data

Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets: Wednesday Level—Federal Reserve Economic Data

Assets: Securities Held Outright: U.S. Treasury Securities: All: Wednesday Level—Federal Reserve Economic Data

Americans Reported Strong Personal Finances Late Last Year, Fed Finds by David Harrison—The Wall Street Journal

A Complete Guide to Understanding and Protecting Against Inflation—Money For the Rest of Us

A Complete Guide to Investing in TIPS and I Bonds—Money For the Rest of Us

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National Debt Master Class Part One May 08, 2024

Show notes

In part one of this three part series, we consider why a country that issues debt in its own currency can't default unless it chooses to. We also explore how central banks can control interest rates on the national debt. We also consider whether it is possible for government borrowing to crowd out the private sector.

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Show Notes

Money In The Modern Economy: An Introduction – Bank of England – Q1 2014

Money Creation In The Modern Economy – Bank of England – Q1 2014

Congressional Budget Office 2017 Long-term Budget Outlook

Going for Broke: Deficits, Debt, and the Entitlement Crisis – Michael D. Tanner

Bernanke’s Paradox: Can He Reconcile His Position on the Federal Budget with His Recent Charge to Prevent Deflation? – Pavlina R. Tcherneva – Levy Institute (includes quotes referenced in episode by Ben Bernanke and Michael Woodford

New Framework for Strengthening Monetary Easing: “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with Yield Curve Control” – Bank of Japan

Japan’s Debt Burden Is Quietly Falling the Most in the World – Bloomberg

The Bone Clocks – David Mitchell

Venezuela Is Starving – Juan Forero – Wall Street Journal

Curse or Blessing? How Institutions Determine Success in Resource-Rich Economies – Cato Institute

Forget Taxes, Warren Buffett Says. The Real Problem Is Health Care. – New York Times

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Is Small Cap Dead? Why You Shouldn't Abandon Small Cap Stocks Apr 24, 2024

Show notes

Why global small-cap stocks have underperformed large-cap stocks and will the trend continue? The investment case for allocating to global small caps.

Topics covered include:

How have small caps performed relative to large caps over the past two decades
What factors contributed to the underperformance
How quality is an important factor to consider when investing in small caps
What are the earnings prospects for small-cap stocks
Why small-cap stocks could deliver double-digit returns over the next decade

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Show Notes

US small-caps suffer worst run against larger stocks in over 20 years by George Steer—The Financial Times

Small stocks, big problems by Robin Wigglesworth—The Financial Times

The Death of Small Cap Equities? by Chris Satterthwaite—Verdad

The Quality of New Entrants by Chris Satterthwaite—Verdad

Related Episodes

466: Does Dividend Investing Still Work?

370: Should You Invest in Small-Cap and Mid-Cap Stocks?

253: Are IPOs the New Ponzi Scheme?

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Inflation's Illusion: Debunking the Normalcy of Currency Debasesment Apr 17, 2024

Show notes

It is not normal to want prices to rise and currencies to lose their purchasing power. We look at the advantages of stable currencies and prices.

Topics covered include:

What's more normal, an inflationary or deflationary mindset?
Why it is more normal for prices to fall due to productivity increases
How central banks seek to overcome productivity-induced deflation by increasing the money supply
How inflation and ongoing currency debasement encourage debt, the financialization of housing, and keep unprofitable companies in business
How gold, Bitcoin, stocks, real estate, and other assets help us overcome currency debasement

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Show Notes

Is Japan finally becoming a "normal" economy?—The Financial Times

Broken Money by Lyn Alden

A Complete Guide to Understanding and Protecting Against Inflation—Money for the Rest of Us

Related Episodes

431: The Long-term Bullish Case for Gold

429: Which Inflation Protection Strategies Worked and Which Didn’t?

389: Is Airbnb Intensifying the Housing Crisis?

253: Are IPOs the New Ponzi Scheme?

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Are Emerging Markets Bonds a Once in a Generation Opportunity? Apr 10, 2024

Show notes

Some analysts suggest that now is an incredibly attractive entry point to invest in emerging market bonds. We look at how to do this and whether you should.

Topics covered include:

How emerging markets bonds have performed relative to U.S. bonds
How frequently have emerging markets bonds defaulted
What is the difference between local currency and U.S. dollar-denominated emerging markets bonds
Why emerging markets nations are reforming
What are the ways to invest in emerging markets bonds and what factors should you consider

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Show Notes

Emerging Local Debt: A Once-In-A-Generation Opportunity? by Victoria Courmes—GMO

EM Sovereign Defaults at Record Level, but Rating Outlooks More Balanced—Fitch Ratings

The big opportunity in emerging market debt by Victoria Courmes—The Financial Times

Default Risk Fades in Emerging Markets as Riskiest Bonds Soar by Zijia Song, Giovanna Bellotti Azevedo, and Srinivasan Sivabalan—Bloomberg

The weakest links in the global economy are on the mend by Ruchir Sharma—The Financial Times

How to invest in closed-end funds - Money for the Rest of Us

Investments Mentioned

iShares JP Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB)

iShares JP Morgan Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond ETF (LEMB)

DoubleLine Low Duration Emerging Markets Fixed Income Fund (DELNX)

DoubleLine Emerging Markets Fixed Income Fund (DLENX)

Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Income ETF (EDF)

DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund (DSL)

Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Debt Fund (MSD)

Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund (MSD)

Related Episodes

411: Is Emerging and Frontier Markets Investing Still Worth It? – With Asha Mehta

How to Invest in Closed-End Funds

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Investing Fundamentals and What Is Attractive Now Apr 03, 2024

Show notes

In this conversation with financial advisor Josh Jalinski, David shares his views on constructing and benchmarking portfolios, factor investing including growth versus value, and managing regret. We explore a number of asset classes and strategies including dividend investing, leveraged loans, closed-end funds, equity REITs, and China. We also discuss how to manage retirement assets.

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Show Notes

Josh Jalinksi - Financial Quarterback

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Is the Economy as Bad as People Think? Mar 27, 2024

Show notes

Why most households are in better financial shape than prior to the pandemic, but remain frustrated at their lack of economic progress.

Topics covered include:

How consumer sentiment surveys are designed and their current findings.
Reasons behind consumer frustration with increasing prices amidst declining inflation rates.
The magnitude of the inflation shock and its underlying causes.
The concept of reference prices and their significant role in shaping consumer sentiment.
Factors contributing to the high levels of economic uncertainty among households.
Key elements required for enhancing consumer confidence in their economic future.
The political repercussions stemming from widespread economic dissatisfaction.

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Show Notes

Surveys of Consumers—University of Michigan

Consumer sentiment climbs amid split views on business outlook—University of Michigan

The Purchasing Power of American Households—U.S. Department of the Treasury

Unemployment Rate—St. Louis Fed

We Still Don’t Believe How Much Things Cost by Rachel Wolfe and Rachel Louise Ensign—The Wall Street Journal

It’s Been 30 Years Since Food Ate Up This Much of Your Income by Jesse Newman and Heather Haddon—The Wall Street Journal

Consumers are increasingly pushing back against price increases — and winning by Christopher Rugaber—Yahoo! Finance

Kraft Heinz ups ad spend, changes leadership by Christopher Lombardo—Strategy

Many Americans Believe the Economy Is Rigged by Katherine J. Cramer and Johnathon D. Cohen—The New York Times

Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic—Worldometer

Related Episodes

380: How Stories Drive Our Happiness and Financial Success

294: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Economic Events

286: Coronavirus and the Financial Impact of Pandemics

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