Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Latest Episodes:

Banks' “Considerable” Exposure to Private Credit | Chris Whalen on Banks’ Loans to NBFIs, Plus CRE, Gold, and Payments Apr 18, 2026

Show notes

Learn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/hfgm

In this episode, banking specialist Chris Whalen joins Jack to unpack the hidden risks within recent bank earnings, focusing heavily on the sector's exposure to private credit and non-depository financial institutions. Chris explains how the widespread use of off-balance-sheet special purpose vehicles obscures the true level of risk, warning that regional banks could face significant pain as troubled private credit debt is forced into equity. The conversation also explores the ongoing turmoil in commercial real estate, noting that while premium properties remain insulated, older buildings and specific markets like Chicago are suffering steep valuation discounts. Shifting to asset protection, Chris details his bullish stance on precious metals, highlighting gold as a crucial global monetary trade and silver as an industrial necessity currently facing acute supply shortages. Recorded April 17, 2026.

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Financial Repression, Pt. 1 | Professor Hanno Lustig on Hidden Taxes, Fiscal Sustainability, and Japan’s Debt Puzzle Apr 15, 2026

Show notes

Learn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/hfgm

In this episode of Monetary Matters, Stanford University finance professor Hanno Lustig dives deep into the hidden mechanics of financial repression and fiscal sustainability. Professor Lustig explains how governments historically use financial repression to fund themselves at artificially low interest rates, shifting the economic burden away from taxpayers and onto everyday bondholders and savers. The conversation then centers on Japan's debt puzzle, exploring how the nation has sustained a debt-to-GDP ratio of over 200% without triggering a severe fiscal crisis. By consolidating the balance sheets of the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan, Lustig reveals that the public sector has been executing a massive, highly leveraged carry trade. This bold strategy involves funding operations by issuing bank reserves at near-zero interest rates and reinvesting those funds into higher-yielding foreign currencies and risky global equities. While this financial engineering has generated immense returns for the government, it operates as a hidden, regressive tax that heavily penalizes financially unsophisticated citizens who hold basic bank deposits. Finally, as inflation forces the Bank of Japan to abandon yield curve control and raise interest rates, Lustig warns that this carry trade could violently unravel, offering a cautionary tale for other indebted Western economies. Recorded April 8, 2026.

Hanno Lustig’s Research discussed in interview: “What About Japan?”: https://www.nber.org/papers/w31850

“Japan’s Debt Puzzle: Sovereign Wealth Fund from Borrowed Money”:

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.20251452

“Safe until crisis: What 300 years of wars reveal about government debt safety”:

https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/safe-until-crisis-what-300-years-wars-reveal-about-government-debt-safety

Hanno’s ‘Stack: https://thetwocents.substack.com/

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"I Don't Believe the Stagflation Narrative": How the Strong Consumer and AI Tailwinds Shape Sean Emory's Bullish Blueprint | Avory & Co Apr 14, 2026

Show notes

This episode is sponsored by Pictet Asset Management and its AI-enhanced equity ETFs.

Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS):

https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2826077237&utm_source=jfmv&utm_content=pquslp&utm_medium=podcast_02&utm_term=noterm

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In this episode of the OPM podcast, Avery and Co. founder Sean Emory explains why he firmly rejects the stagflation narrative and believes the consumer remains in fine shape. Emory argues that despite the psychological impact of higher gas prices, strong tax refunds and a stable housing market are continuing to support consistent consumer spending. He breaks down how this stable macroeconomic view aligns with his fundamental investment approach, detailing high-conviction bets on consumer-oriented companies like Clear Secure and First Watch. The conversation also explores how Emory leverages these macro insights alongside bottom-up analysis to identify long-term value in technology platforms such as Block, Zoom, and Omnicell.

Listen to Avory’s Podcast here: https://www.avory.xyz/insidescooppodcast

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:26 Avery Investing Style

02:56 Oil Shock Consumer Check

06:27 Housing Inflation Outlook

10:37 K Shaped Economy

13:50 AI, Employment, and Flows

18:06 Pictet AI-Enhanced Equity ETFs

19:41 Using AI for Investment Research

28:12 How AI is Making Trading More Short Term

31:09 Block ($XYZ) Investment Thesis

36:26 Zoom ($ZM) Investment Thesis

43:35 Defining Small Caps

45:57 Omnicell ($OMCL) Investment Thesis

53:42 Zillow ($Z) and Airbnb ($ABNB) Investment Thesis

54:58 Zillow Flywheel Explained

01:02:02 Housing Catalysts

01:04:30 Waiting Out AI Valuations

01:07:31 SpaceX IPO Speculation

01:09:31 Outro

"The Best Time to Invest": How AI Disruption is Reshaping Software Valuations | Ben Topor | Titan Capital Partners Apr 09, 2026

Show notes

This episode is sponsored by Pictet Asset Management and its AI-enhanced equity ETFs.

Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS):

https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2826077237&utm_source=jfmv&utm_content=pquslp&utm_medium=podcast_02&utm_term=noterm

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Max Wiethe sits down with Ben Topor, founder of Titan Capital Partners and author of Decoding the Software Landscape, to unpack the seismic shifts happening in the tech investment world. Topor explains how AI is commoditizing the software application layer and shares why the recent correction in software valuations makes this a prime time to invest. The conversation also delves into the booming secondary market, the structural differences between US and Israeli tech hubs, and how startups can build unbreachable AI-proof moats through distribution and proprietary data. Finally, Topor reveals the strategic tactics founders use to outmaneuver tech giants by moving in silence and misdirecting competitors.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

02:10 Mapping the Software Landscape

03:45 What AI Changes in Software

09:13 AI Led M&A Wave

13:36 Valuations and Timing

15:34 Secondaries Liquidity Thesis

17:33 Pictet AI-Enhanced Equity ETFs

19:08 How Titan Buys Secondaries

21:07 Why Companies Stay Private

23:00 Finding Category Leaders

26:47 Reading Financial Symptoms

28:37 Mispriced Gems or Turnarounds?

31:25 Exit Paths Today

35:17 Investing in Israel

38:16 Cybersecurity Edge

41:08 Too Much Capital

43:38 AI Proof Moats

45:17 What Counts as Data

46:40 Private Credit Risks

50:36 Down Rounds Reframed

53:51 Titan’s Value Add

57:18 Competitive Maneuvering

01:02:37 Conclusion

Private Credit “Doom” Narrative On Shaky Foundation? | Michael Haynes On Why Retail Outflows Are Real But Credit Foundations Are Solid Apr 08, 2026

Show notes

This episode is brought to you by CAIA.nxt. Learn more about their alternatives education courses for investment advisors and get 10% off with code MMTEN:

https://caia.org/content/welcome-monetary-matters-and-other-peoples-money-listeners

Michael Haynes, Head of Private Credit at Beach Point Capital Management, joins Jack for a discussion of private credit. Michael explains the nuances of the asset class and why he sees panic around it as overblown. Recorded on April 2nd, 2026.

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Why Emerging Markets are Finally Outperforming Developed Markets | Robert Koenigsberger | Gramercy Apr 07, 2026

Show notes

This episode is sponsored by Pictet Asset Management and its AI-enhanced equity ETFs. Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS):

https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2826077237&utm_source=jfmv&utm_content=pquslp&utm_medium=podcast_02&utm_term=noterm

Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF (PQNT):

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Emerging market outperformance is turning investors’ heads and in this episode of Other People’s Money, Robert Koenigsberger, CIO and founder of multi-billion dollar EM alternative asset manager Gramercy, explains why the macro environment has emerging markets looking more developed than some developed markets, particularly in how swiftly their central banks acted to combat inflation. He also explains how passive index investing can do damage to an emerging market portfolio and why the typical EM approach focusing on exposure is all wrong. Koenigsberger also dives into the structural advantages of emerging market private credit over its developed market counterparts, emphasizing the importance of local networks, senior secured collateral, and having a positive influence on corporate governance.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:36 Pictet AI ETFs

01:54 How EM Investing Evolved

02:48 Why EMs Outperformed

04:08 Debt vs Equity Returns

06:09 Policy Convergence EM vs. DM

08:33 Diversifying Beyond Dollar

11:30 EM Private Credit

14:57 Pictet AI ETFs

16:32 Why Borrowers Choose Private

21:06 Defining EM Alpha

25:23 Index Construction Pitfalls

28:57 True Distress and Asymmetry

33:14 China Property Deep Value

35:15 Picking Winners at Five Cents

38:33 Sovereign Timing Checklist

40:07 Sanctions and “Uninvestibility”

43:37 Structuring Downside Control

44:58 Creditor Groups Collaboration

48:55 Restructuring Deal Template

50:23 Warrants Windfalls Risks

53:19 Governance in Private Credit

59:02 Underwriting People Networks

01:02:43 Hedging Without Shorting

01:05:49 Allocator Case for EM Credit

01:08:40 Liquidity Myths and Cycles

“Books Will Be Written” About This Shipping Market | Ed Finley-Richardson of Misadventures in Shipping on War-Induced Oil Tanker Mayhem, Squeeze for Asiabound Refined Products, and Persian Gulf “Feeding Frenzy” Scenario Apr 04, 2026

Show notes

Listeners can get 20% off Misadventures in Shipping subscriptions through April 17th here:

https://edfin.substack.com/monetary

Subscription includes access to Substack research pieces and private Twitter (X) account.

____

In this episode, Ed Finley-Richardson of the Misadventures in Shipping Substack joins Jack to break down how the Middle East conflict is creating unprecedented chaos (and massive profits) in the global shipping industry. With the ongoing disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, global trade routes are being radically redrawn, forcing massive surges in spot market freight rates. Ed explains why smaller "MR" product tankers carrying refined fuels from the U.S. Gulf to Asia are currently minting fortunes, while very large crude carriers (VLCCs) prices are moderating after a surge that pre-dated the Iran War because of the aggressive actions of a certain Korean businessman. We dive deep into the specific tanker stocks positioned to capture this volatility, analyzing the fleets, corporate governance, and dividend potentials of major players like Frontline, International Seaways, and DHT Holdings. Listeners will learn about the counterintuitive economic forces unique to maritime trade, where logistical inefficiency directly drives margin expansion for shipowners. Finally, Ed lays out his "feeding frenzy" scenario—a potential massive logistical traffic jam that could occur if the straits reopen, proving exactly why books will be written about this generational shipping market. Recorded April 2, 2026.

Pieces discussed from “Misadventures in Shipping”:

“Bauxite (3): Why China is ‘locked in’ to Guinea as their main supplier” (March 14, 2026): https://edfin.substack.com/p/bauxite-3

“Hummus Fallout: A de facto Strait of Hormuz 'closure' is leading to a crescendo of panic” (March 6, 2026):

https://edfin.substack.com/p/hummus-fallout

“Atlantic MR Bonanza: Who Benefits Most?” (March 20, 2026): https://edfin.substack.com/p/atlantic-mr-bonanza-who-benefits

“Iron Ore: Indexes, Inventories” (April 3, 2026): https://edfin.substack.com/p/iron-ore-indexes-inventories

“DHT — How At Risk from Hormuz Fall-Out?” (March 10, 2026): https://edfin.substack.com/p/dht-how-at-risk-from-hormuz-fall

“The Strait of Hormuz & Tankers (1)” (April 4, 2024): https://edfin.substack.com/p/hummus-fallout

“VLCC S&P Rumor — 10 Vessels Sold” (January 7, 2024): https://edfin.substack.com/p/vlcc-s-and-p-rumor-10-vessels-sold

“VLCC Period Charter Modeling” (February 26, 2026): https://edfin.substack.com/p/vlcc-period-charter-modeling

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Why $200 Oil Won’t Spike Inflation to 9% | Anna Wong on Recession Probability, PCE vs CPI, and Fed Reaction Function In A Scenario of Soaring Energy Prices Apr 01, 2026

Show notes

This episode is sponsored by Pictet Asset Management and its AI-enhanced equity ETFs. Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS):

https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2826077237&utm_source=jfmv&utm_content=pquslp&utm_medium=podcast_02&utm_term=noterm

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In this episode of Monetary Matters, Bloomberg Chief US Economist Anna Wong explains why surging oil prices are unlikely to trigger a repeat of the 9% inflation seen in 2022. Wong argues that even if oil reaches $200 per barrel, headline CPI would likely peak near 6% before declining due to "base effects" and a lack of the excess consumer savings that fueled previous price spikes. She highlights the reality of "demand destruction," noting that sustained $100 oil would sap nearly $2,000 in spending power from the average American household. Despite these pressures, Wong does not view a recession as her base case, citing the offsetting support of expansionary fiscal policy and increased domestic production in the energy and defense sectors. The discussion also explores why the Federal Reserve should "look through" these commodity shocks, particularly as core PCE remains influenced by more persistent issues like the AI-driven memory chip shortage. Finally, Wong compares our current macro landscape to the 1970s, suggesting that while the situations "rhyme," a full repeat would require a much larger surge in government-driven demand. Recorded March 31, 2026

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The Psychology of Market Champions: Inside the Minds of Point 72 & Citadel Portfolio Managers | Dr. Gio Valiante Mar 31, 2026

Show notes

This episode is sponsored by Pictet Asset Management and its AI-enhanced equity ETFs. Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS):

https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2826077237&utm_source=jfmv&utm_content=pquslp&utm_medium=podcast_02&utm_term=noterm

Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF (PQNT):

https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2715538577&utm_source=jfmv&utm_content=pqnt&utm_medium=podcast_02&utm_term=noterm

Join Max Wiethe on "Other People's Money" as he sits down with world-renowned performance coach Dr. Gio Valiante. Dr. Valiante has spent decades coaching elite performers, from PGA Tour champions like Jordan Spieth to legendary portfolio managers at Point 72 and Citadel. In this deep-dive podcast, Dr. Valiante pulls back the curtain on the psychology of the world’s most successful investors. He explains that top traders operate with the discipline and optimization of elite athletes—"investor athletes"—who must manage fear, detach from ego, and master their environment.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:42 Pictet ETFs

00:55 Why Pods Took Over

03:04 Culture and Incentives Matter

05:19 Fear in Trading Explained

08:53 Embarrassment and Risk Aversion

12:03 Playing to Win vs Not Lose

13:21 Elite Funds Audit Process

14:34 Regret and Missed Trades

19:21 Pictet AI ETFs

20:56 Detaching from Short Term PnL

22:21 Weekends Recovery for PMs

24:15 Handling Weekend News Cycles

28:41 Regulation Favors Big Platforms

32:30 Spinoffs Vs Bootstrapping

33:29 Bootstrapped Edge

34:33 Leaving Pod Shop Reality

36:05 Situated Cognition Explained

37:55 Culture Sparks Ideas

39:43 Mandates and Opportunity Cost

41:17 Ego Identity and Seat

45:04 Capital Cycles Perspective

48:46 Entitlement Versus Humility

54:39 Performance Hierarchy

57:57 Why Hedge Funds Matter

01:00:18 Masters Picks and Wrap

01:01:54 Pictet AI ETFs

The 2026 Private Credit Liquidity Crunch | Leyla Kunimoto on Redemptions in Semi-liquid Vehicles, Private/Public BDCs, and the Future of Alternatives Mar 29, 2026

Show notes

This episode is sponsored by Pictet Asset Management and its AI-enhanced equity ETFs. Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF (PQUS):

https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2826077237&utm_source=jfmv&utm_content=pquslp&utm_medium=podcast_02&utm_term=noterm

Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF (PQNT):

https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/?utm_campaign=usetf&cid=2715538577&utm_source=jfmv&utm_content=pqnt&utm_medium=podcast_02&utm_term=noterm

In this episode, Jack sits down with Leyla Kunimoto, founder of Accredited Investor Insights, to discuss her journey into private markets and the ongoing "democratization" of alternative assets. The conversation explores the rise of "evergreen" or semi-liquid structures, which allow retail investors to bypass the traditional "J curve" by deploying capital almost immediately. Leyla provides a detailed look at the current wave of redemption requests hitting major private credit funds like Cliffwater and Blackstone, explaining the mechanics of 5% quarterly caps used to prevent the fire selling of assets. She further breaks down the risks associated with Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) and the rise of "shadow defaults" through payment-in-kind (PIK) interest toggles. The interview highlights why Leyla currently prefers publicly traded Business Development Companies (BDCs) over private ones, noting the potential arbitrage available when public shares trade at a significant discount to their net asset value. Finally, Leyla shares why she is far more bearish on private equity than private credit, citing the asset class's extreme opaqueness and junior position in the capital stack. Recorded March 29, 2026.

Accredited Insight:

Cliffwater Part 1: https://www.accreditedinsight.com/p/cliffwater-corporate-lending-fund

Cliffwater Redemptions: https://www.accreditedinsight.com/p/cliffwater-corporate-lending-fund-d4c

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