Michael Covel's Trend Following

Latest Episodes:

Ep. 260: Sally Hogshead Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio Jul 27, 2014

Show notes

My guest today is Sally Hogshead, a New York Times bestselling author, National Speakers Association Hall of Fame speaker, chief executive officer of How to Fascinate (Fascinate, Inc) and a former advertising executive.

The topic is her book How The World Sees You: Discover Your Highest Value Through The Science of Fascination.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

Fascination and paying attention
The seven different categories of things that fascinate us
What those who fascinate have in common
Developing a personality assessment that shows how the world sees you
Understanding your own personal branding
Analyzing Michael Covel's own fascination survey
Not being a commodity
Why if you're not generating a negative reaction from someone, you're probably not fascinating anyone
Why you don't want to be vanilla ice cream

Jump in!

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I'm MICHAEL COVEL, the host of TREND FOLLOWING RADIO, and I'm proud to have delivered 10+ million podcast listens since 2012. Investments, economics, psychology, politics, decision-making, human behavior, entrepreneurship and trend following are all passionately explored and debated on my show.

To start? I'd like to give you a great piece of advice you can use in your life and trading journey… cut your losses! You will find much more about that philosophy here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/trend/

You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/

Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast

My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel

Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

Ep. 259: Bucky Isaacson Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio Jul 24, 2014

Show notes

My guest today is Bucky Isaacson, one of the early pioneers of managed futures. In 1969, he helped to develop one of the first computerized trading systems. He's been involved in the managed futures industry ever since, particularly in Asia and the US.

The topic is managed futures.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

Fractured state of conferences these days
What it was like to be involved with a group developing a computerized trading system in 1969
Being with one of the earliest incarnations of a managed futures firm
Trading attitudes
Marketing and doing business in Asia
Differences in business practices between Asian countries
Refco, MF Global, PFG and other aberrations that have damaged the Chicago futures brand
Madoff as a marketer
Raising the initial capital to start a trading venture
How to differentiate yourself from a marketing perspective
Growth in the managed futures industry

Jump in!

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You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/

Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast

My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel

Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

Ep. 258: Megan McArdle Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio Jul 20, 2014

Show notes

My guest today is Megan McArdle, a Bloomberg View columnist who writes on economics, business and public policy. She founded the blog "Asymmetrical Information".

The topic is her book The Up Side of Down: Why Failing Well Is the Key to Success.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

"Trophy kids" and taking the monkey bars away
The idea of a regulator out there trying to guarantee our safety
Why the companies that make it aren't the ones with the best strategic plan–it's the ones that execute (and fail well)
The power of experimentation
Nobel winner Vernon Smith and experimentation
The idea of learning in crisis
How sunk costs are difficult for a large part of the population to grasp
Van Halen, errors, and M&M's
Normative error
Small, manageable risks
Forager morality vs. farmer morality
A story about Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC)

Jump in!

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You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/

Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast

My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel

Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

Ep. 257: Cullen Roche Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio Jul 17, 2014

Show notes

My guest today is Cullen Roche, the founder of Orcam Financial Group, a financial services company based out of San Diego. He also runs a very well-known blog called Pragmatic Capitalism (pragcap.com).

The topic is his book Pragmatic Capitalism: What Every Investor Needs to Know About Money and Finance.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

Entrepreneurism
Investing in yourself
The advantages of starting a blog
Why the word "pragmatic" is a word that has become central to Roche's universe
Eliminating your biases
Why the US going bankrupt is a myth
The myth that central banks exist to enrich bankers
Dr. Laurie Santos and her work with monkeys
Bringing risk down to something we can measure
Warren Buffett
Hedging your bets

Jump in!

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You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/

Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast

My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel

Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

Ep. 256: Mike Harris Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio Jul 14, 2014

Show notes

My guest today is Mike Harris, the President of Campbell & Company (3B+ AUM), the systematic trading firm started by Keith Campbell (Campbell was featured in Covel's first book Trend Following).

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

Systematic trading in the early 70's
Education about managed futures
Correlation with other markets and managers
Trading diverse markets
Focusing on data rather than the fundamentals
Why "commodities" and "CTA" are misnomers
Why Harris wouldn't fly down to Brazil to investigate fundamental information on the coffee market
Risk management, drawdowns, and taking small losses; dealing with uncertainty and helping clients to understand the uncertain nature of trading
How human emotion often gets in the way of profitable trading
The efficient market hypothesis and behavioral finance
Continuity and how that has been thought through at Campbell & Company
The Sharpe ratio and why it isn't the best way to look at systematic traders
Why being defensive is central to being a great absolute return trader

Jump in!

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You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/

Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast

My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel

Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

Ep. 255: Tyler Cowen Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio Jul 09, 2014

Show notes

My guest today is Tyler Cowen, an American economist, columnist and blogger. He is a professor at George Mason University, where he holds the Holbert L. Harris chair in the economics department. He hosts the economics blog Marginal Revolution, together with co-author Alex Tabarrok.

The topic is economics.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

Sabermetrics and the new idea that we will be judged by numbers
Cowen's early experience studying under Nobel Prize winner Thomas Schelling
The notion of thinking in terms of paradoxes
Why we're moving from the 1% to the 15%
"Average is over" and why Singapore and Israel are the two places in the world where this has come true first
Problems because of "average is over" in Singapore
Pure free markets
Thinking about why past regulations have failed
How computers change us
Globalization, where things are headed, and what we should be prepared for
Zero marginal product workers

Jump in!

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You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/

Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast

My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel

Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

Ep. 254: William Poundstone Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio Jul 06, 2014

Show notes

My guest today is William Poundstone, an American author, columnist, and skeptic. He has written a number of books including the Big Secrets series and a biography of Carl Sagan.

The topic is his book Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

Claude Shannon
The connection between Al Capone
The Kelly formula, bookmaking, and the telephone industry
Bell Labs and information theory
Why, when betting, if there's a small chance of losing everything, you will eventually lose everything
Criticisms of the Kelly criterion
Ed Thorp, blackjack, and card counting
Long-Term Capital Management
Martingale vs. Kelly
Early development of the Black-Scholes formula

Jump in!

---

You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/

Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast

My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel

Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

Ep. 253: Perry Kaufman Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio Jul 02, 2014

Show notes

My guest today is Perry Kaufman, an American systematic trader, index developer, and quantitative financial theorist. He is considered a leading expert in the development of fully algorithmic trading programs.

The topic is systematic trading.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

How Kaufman came to the idea of 100% algorithmic trading systems
The difference between being systematic and being automated
Optimization vs. validation
The biggest advantages of testing
Why discretion is not part of Kaufman's toolbox
The problem of tail events
Why discipline is the most important characteristic of a systematic trader
The "loose pants fit everyone" philosophy
Preparing yourself for uncertainty
Comparisons between risk management and risk measurement
The Sharpe ratio
High volatility trades vs. low volatility
Why Kaufman places equal weight on both risk management and the underlying system
Systematic trading in established mature markets vs. emerging markets

Jump in!

---

You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/

Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast

My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel

Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

Ep. 252: Ben Hunt Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio Jun 30, 2014

Show notes

My guest today is Ben Hunt, the Chief Risk Officer at Salient Partners. Salient is a 19B AUM manager based in Houston, Texas. As Chief Risk Officer, Hunt writes the Epsilon Theory, viewing capital markets through the lenses of game theory and history.

The topic is Epsilon Theory.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

Power of the crowd watching the crowd
Game theory
Having a profound agnosticism about what the future holds
The difference between risk and uncertainty in the context of game theory
The Panopticon and the chilling effect of being watched
The "common knowledge game" and the missionary
The island of the green-eyed tribe

Jump in!

---

You can watch a free video here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/video/

Can't get enough of this episode? You can choose from my thousand plus episodes here: https://www.trendfollowing.com/podcast

My social media platforms: Twitter: @covel Facebook: @trendfollowing LinkedIn: @covel Instagram: @mikecovel

Hope you enjoy my never-ending podcast conversation!

Ep. 251: Andrew Huszar Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio Jun 24, 2014

Show notes

My guest today is Andrew Huszar, a Senior Fellow at Rutgers Business School and also a former Morgan Stanley managing director. In 2009, he managed the Federal Reserve's 1.25 trillion dollar mortgage-backed security purchase program.

The topic is the direction of the Federal Reserve.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss: