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The law of unintended consequences Mar 26, 2025

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More tariffs are on the way, this time targeting vehicle imports. President Donald Trump favors import taxes, partly because, he argues, they’ll help shrink the U.S. trade deficit. But if tariffs cut Americans’ spending on imports, foreigners are likely to cut their contribution to funding the U.S. budget deficit. Also on the show: BLS economists use not one but six different methods to measure unemployment, and organizational studies professor Elizabeth Popp Berman explains why university endowments can’t simply replace federal funding.

Consumer confidence continues to dim Mar 25, 2025

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The latest reading marks the fourth straight month of declining consumer confidence, and it fell more than expected. How will the souring mood affect spending and the job market? Also in this episode: Political economist Mark Blyth discusses how President Trump might respond to a potential recession. Plus, why tariffs are making investors wary of the U.S. and a company claims to have a new way to make seawater drinkable.

Will tariffs boost U.S. manufacturing? Mar 24, 2025

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The Donald Trump administration wants to strengthen U.S. manufacturing with tariffs on imported goods. We look at the latest purchasing managers report to see if new trade policies have made an impact. Also in this episode: Homeownership rates stall for Gen Z and millennials, shakeups at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and Baltimore’s new Francis Scott Key Bridge design takes shape.

Measuring a tax cut is all about the framing Mar 21, 2025

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We’re tackling a “mysterious and important” question in today’s episode: Should Congress use “current policy” or “current law” baseline when measuring tax cuts? It’s not unlike our reporter’s internal struggle on whether to cancel Apple TV+ now that Season 2 of “Severance” has ended, or renew it. Except lawmakers are dealing with trillions of dollars. Plus: African immigrants fill critical home health aide roles in Texas, and The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index falls for the third-straight month.

These sectors are bracing for price hikes Mar 20, 2025

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More tariffs are set to take effect April 2, and in most cases, American consumers and businesses will pay the tax. We’ll explain why some sectors expect prices to rise as soon as next month while others won’t feel a pinch until later in the year. Also in this episode: Tariffs could inflate the dollar’s strength while sapping demand for American exports, Gen Zers feel “trapped” by microtrends and Alaskan crude oil production is projected to jump in 2026.

Fed takes “wait and see” approach with tariffs Mar 19, 2025

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Federal Reserve policymakers aren’t cutting interest rates right now, though they expect two rate cuts in 2025. When — and if — those cuts come will depend on how the trade war shakes out. In this episode, what static rates mean for consumers and businesses. Plus, more byproducts of tariff-driven economic uncertainty: bond spreads widen and export prices rise, particularly on agricultural products.

Stress-Googling “recession”? You’re not alone. Mar 19, 2025

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“Recession” recently peaked on Google Trends — a sure sign Americans are sweating the possibility of an economic downturn. But what do the numbers say? Well, the hard data so far reflects a pretty strong economy. But the soft, economic-vibes data, is … less optimistic. Plus: Government credits help Tesla and other EV-makers stay afloat, liquefied natural gas exports are slated to double in five years and advocates help young people who’ve aged out of foster care find resources.

Working 9 to 5 — and 6 to 11. Maybe weekends too. Mar 17, 2025

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About 8.9 million. That’s how many U.S. workers worked more than one job in February — an all-time high, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. We spoke with some workers holding multiple job about why this economy necessitates a second (or third) gig. Plus, economist Mohamed El-Erian on DOGE and recession odds, and we break down why the U.S. energy mix probably won’t change much under President Donald Trump.

Will homebuyers spring at lower rates? Mar 14, 2025

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Mortgage rates have fallen recently to 6.6% for a 30-year fixed. But will it be enough to bring prospective homebuyers off the sidelines? Not according to one survey, which found some buyers are holding out for rates below 5%. Also in this episode: The Trump administration cut USDA programs that allowed schools and food banks to buy fresh, local food. And the U.S. wants Chinese consumers to spend more, but that won’t be easy.

The weakening dollar Mar 13, 2025

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The U.S. Dollar Index has fallen sharply in the last few weeks, thanks largely to tariff flip-flopping and overall economic uncertainty. Typically, significant sustained changes in a currency’s value indicate the relative strength of a nation’s economy. Should we be worried? Also: New tariffs triggered a January import rush that will ding GDP, student loan borrowers are temporarily blocked from income-driven repayment plans and Amazon pulls back on its brick-and-mortar grocery biz.

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