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Magic Numbers

Magic Numbers is a podcast about Limited format in Magic: the Gathering. The idea is to use data to try to crack current format, or try to answer longstanding questions in Magic and by answering the questions making the listeners better at drafting, deckbuilding and general strategy. The target audience is intermediate to advanced players, but rest assured, determined beginners will also find useful information that will allow them to level up. The podcast is an audio version of my Twitch seminars, so if some parts are confusing, it was designed to be watched on YouTube or live on Twitch.

Latest Episodes:

#125 - How to optimize lands in MH3 draft decks Jul 10, 2024

Show notes

MH3 has the most complicated land system in ages. A whooping 1/8th of all the cards you see during draft will be lands and that means they play an important role in the deck building process.

Today I talk about how to make sure you have the right number of landscapes and what is the best way of sneaking Modal Double-Faced Cards (spells with land at the back of the card) into decks: should you replace a spell or another land with them.

Plus some data on format speed and how to use rarely mentioned metrics from 17Lands.com.

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Watch this episode and see the slides: https://youtu.be/MsFMWW3nVfo

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#124 - Learning to draft according to your level Jun 28, 2024

Show notes

In all areas of life we know that learning process is a progression. You start with simpler tasks and as you get better, take on more complicated ones building on your growing skillset.

But Magic often has universal advice to all players without taking the individual level characteristics into account. Todays episode will try to at least identify some trends between different win rate groups of players and find cards that are evaluated differently between then and cards that are having different win rates across those groups. Obviously all based on 17Lands.com and using Modern Horizons 3 as the dataset.

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You can get the BulkBox at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.bulkbox.co.uk/store/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ if you are in the UK. Remember to use SIERKO10 code for a 10% discount! If you are outside of UK, you can find your local distributor on the BulkBox website.

Watch this episode and see the slides: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuHWGPxfdjk

Theme song: You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332⁠⁠⁠

#123 - Early dive into Modern Horizons 3 Draft Data Jun 28, 2024

Show notes

If you like a story with a good villain, MH3 delivers. Writhing Chrysalis is the best common we have seen by win rate and keep in mind - it all happens in a high power set. It will define the format - no doubt about it. Question is - what will you, the player do. Will you embrace it? Find a way to beat it? Or get angry with the format?

If it is the latter - this content is not for you. However if you are looking into the first two options - I use the early format data to try and find the answer - what to do with the RG and how to beat it, or at least where to start to look for way of beating it.

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You can get the BulkBox at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.bulkbox.co.uk/store/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ if you are in the UK. Remember to use SIERKO10 code for a 10% discount! If you are outside of UK, you can find your local distributor on the BulkBox website.

Watch this episode and see the slides: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BCFbWHUgWN0

Theme song: You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332⁠⁠

#122 - Personal Data with Paul Cheon Jun 17, 2024

Show notes

This week I have an immense pleasure of hosting a real legend and, if Magic were a country, a national treasure, Paul Cheon. We look through the data of Paul to try to figure out what was essential to Paul's incredible win rate in OTJ. But wait, there's more. Anecdotes, stories, general insights, some thoughts on the upcoming format and many more. I had fun recording, but after that I realised - while having fun and making silly guess games, we actually managed to create some pretty in-depth episode that, despite looking at OTJ specific, is very useful for your draft strategy independent of the format. With some universal thoughts on how to become better at limited in the unique but successful way that Paul's approach offers. If you don't know Paul and his content, it is high time you got acquainted. Paul's YT: https://www.youtube.com/@haumph
Paul's Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/haumph

Join the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Discord⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, sign up for ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Patreon⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, and use this ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Linktree⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for everything else! ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ This podcast is sponsored by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠mtgazone.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - get your reading fix from the best and brightest Magic writers in the business. You can get the BulkBox at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.bulkbox.co.uk/store/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ if you are in the UK. Remember to use SIERKO10 code for a 10% discount! If you are outside of UK, you can find your local distributor on the BulkBox website. Watch this episode and see the slides: ⁠https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pahfhcA52k⁠

Theme song: You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332⁠

#121 - Modern Horizon Draft Archetype Skeletons Jun 16, 2024

Show notes

New set preview time. Me, Jason Ye and a newcomer Springbok7 look at the MH3 and try to predict how each color combination would look like. Instead of traditional card review, we look at the set's fundamentals and build a skeleton of a deck using realistic assumptions (some rares, some uncommons, lots of commons) for each color pair. Plus many bonuses that include:

my cat stopping the stream
data error in one of the graphs (that one is on me)
presentation malfunctioning
I am sure many other bloopers

And yet still thanks to the sheer quality of my guests this remains one of the defining pieces of content before the release of any set. You can find my guests online elsewhere and you would be well-advised to do so.

Jason: https://www.experimentalsynthesizer.b/... Springbok: https://twitch.tv/springbok7 Join the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Discord⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, sign up for ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Patreon⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, and use this ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Linktree⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for everything else! ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ This podcast is sponsored by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠mtgazone.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - get your reading fix from the best and brightest Magic writers in the business. You can get the BulkBox at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.bulkbox.co.uk/store/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ if you are in the UK. Remember to use SIERKO10 code for a 10% discount! If you are outside of UK, you can find your local distributor on the BulkBox website. Watch this episode and see the slides: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1pahfhcA52k

Theme song: You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332⁠

#120 - OTJ set re-review with Chord_o_Calls May 31, 2024

Show notes

This week me and Alex, AKA Chord_o_Calls, come back to our prerelease predictions of the OTJ set. We evaluated every card then - but how did our predictions pan out?

This review is not design to pat ourselves on the back - we focus on mistakes and try to figure out why we made them. Do we have one-off issue or is there some systematic bias in how we assess the cards.

This episode is key if you want to improve in card evaluation - might be useful with MH3 on the horizon. Yes. I went there.

Alex is one of the leading limited brains on this planet. If you don't follow him or his podcast - Limited Level-Ups - you are missing out. Check out his YT to learn more!

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#119 - Figuring game plans using data May 31, 2024

Show notes

Some draft archetypes are relatively straightforward. This will naturally mean that the data related to those archetypes will be of high quality as people are playing right cards in those decks. But some color pairs turn out to be more elusive for Arena users. And this means that a lot of the data related to those archetypes is based on badly built decks, which will underestimate the color pair's power in the generic datasets, leading to players undervaluing the color pair. This is an exploit you can use to gain some edge in the late season by evaluating the power of color pairs correctly. And data can help. Here I use data to figure out the plans for each color pair and then use it to identify cards essential for few undervalued color pairs. Join the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Discord⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, sign up for ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Patreon⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, and use this ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Linktree⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for everything else! ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ This podcast is sponsored by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠mtgazone.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - get your reading fix from the best and brightest Magic writers in the business. You can get the BulkBox at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.bulkbox.co.uk/store/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ if you are in the UK. Remember to use SIERKO10 code for a 10% discount! If you are outside of UK, you can find your local distributor on the BulkBox website. Watch this episode and see the slides: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5OzX00hMn0

Theme song: You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332⁠

Bonus: How to Draft Ikoria on Arena May 21, 2024

Show notes

Ikoria is coming back to Arena for a week. It is my favourite draft format of all the ones I played. The definition and a gold standard of a high synergy format, fun, unique in so many ways - I would not be myself if I didn’t preach its merits. And there are so many. Hopefully after listening to this bonus episode you can try it and learn that it has so much more to offer than the common knowledge suggests.

What is the Ikoria philosophy? What are its features? How to tame the micro synergies? How to master the macro-synergies? And what are some of my favourite build-arounds in the set of 1000 build-arounds.

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Theme song: You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332

#118 - Drafting OTJ May 17, 2024

Show notes

This episode we look at the pack composition of OTJ play boosters. How many rares are there acually? What is the common frequency and how often do you get the cards from each of the many bonus sheets?

On top of that - How should we approach pack one? Is sticking to one color a sustainable strategy? Should you diversify?

And we look at the most attractive wheel targets, which also sheds some light on the most underdrafted archetypes.

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Theme song: You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332

#117 - Learning to draft OTJ from top players May 08, 2024

Show notes

Some strategies in draft are easier to reproduce at any skill level than others. In this episode I look at the cards, color pairs and strategies that top 17Lands.com users mastered but the general population still struggles with. What are the secrets of the best players? How do they build the decks others struggle with? Join the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Discord⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, sign up for ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Patreon⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, and use this ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Linktree⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for everything else! ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ This podcast is sponsored by ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠mtgazone.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ - get your reading fix from the best and brightest Magic writers in the business. You can get the BulkBox at ⁠⁠https://www.bulkbox.co.uk/store/⁠⁠ if you are in the UK. Remember to use SIERKO10 code for a 10% discount! If you are outside of UK, you can find your local distributor on the BulkBox website. Watch this episode and see the slides: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZhbzd_R4Aw

Theme song: You Do You, Mana Junkie by essesq (c) copyright 2020 Licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (3.0) license. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://dig.ccmixter.org/files/essesq/61332

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