Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Latest Episodes:

Martha Gimbel on the Impact of AI and the Trade War on Labor Markets Dec 15, 2025

Show notes

Martha Gimbel is the executive director and co-founder of the Budget Lab at Yale. In Martha's first appearance on the show, she discusses the missing BLS job market data, the consequences of losing two months of labor market data, the impact of AI on the labor market in the short and long term, why it is hard to determine which job sectors AI will impact first, why people will keep learning foreign languages, the future impact tariffs will have on the economy, why US treasuries might get left for the hometown guy in a Hallmark Christmas movie, and much more.

Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links.

Recorded on November 19th, 2025

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Timestamps

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:48 - The Budget Lab at Yale

00:05:34 - Missing Government Data

00:14:21 - Artificial Intelligence

00:44:49 - Trade Wars

00:54:51 - Outro

Laurence Bristow on What the Fed can Learn from the Reserve Bank of Australia Dec 08, 2025

Show notes

Laurence Bristow is a former staffer at the Reserve Bank of Australia and currently is a Vice President and Research Associate at the Bank Policy Institute. In Laurence's first appearance on the show, he discusses the differences between the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Fed, The RBA's change in operating systems, what a demand driven system actually looks like, the motivation for the RBA to make this change, calls for changes to the operating system within the Fed, and much more.

Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links.

Recorded on November 20th, 2025

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Timestamps

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:22 - Laurie's Career

00:05:15 - Reserve Bank of Australia

00:11:33 - RBA's New Monetary Policy Implementation System

00:17:28 - What Is a Demand-Driven System?

00:26:02 - Interbank Market

00:31:33 - Motivations for a Demand-Driven System

00:40:10 - Bank Policy Institute Money Market Symposium

00:52:36 - Outro

Austin Campbell on the Rise and Regulation of Dollar Backed Stablecoins Dec 01, 2025

Show notes

Austin Campbell runs Zero Knowledge Group, a consulting and advising firm in the digital assets space and is an adjunct professor at New York University's Stern School of Business. In Austin's first appearance on the show, he discusses what comes next after the GENIUS Act, the debate with interest-on-reserves when it comes to stablecoins, the future of Tether, Governor Waller's proposal of skinny master accounts, the larger macro implications of stablecoins in Europe and the global South, and much more.

Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links.

Recorded on November 14th, 2025

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Timestamps

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:38 - Austin's Career

00:04:10 - What Comes After GENIUS?

00:7:26 - Interest and Stablecoins

00:12:30 - Tokenized Deposits

00:17:01 - Future of Tether

00:29:27 - Skinny Master Account

00:35:23 - Stablecoin Regulation

00:48:46 - Macro Implications

00:54:58 - Future of the Financial System

00:57:58 - Outro

Mike Bird on the Land Trap and How the History of Housing Impacts the Global Economy Nov 24, 2025

Show notes

Mike Bird is the Wall Street editor for The Economist magazine and is the author of The Land Trap: A New History of the World's Oldest Asset. Mike returns to the show to discuss the conclusion of Abenomics, the origins of land as an asset, the surge in housing prices during the COVID-19 Pandemic, the unsuspecting story of Wolf Ladejinsky, how housing impacted Japan's lost decade, the modern history of land in China, and much more.

Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links.

Recorded on November 4th, 2025

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Timestamps

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:27 - Abenomics

00:04:32 - Motivations for The Land Trap

00:7:58 - Land as a Different Kind of Asset

00:14:55 - COVID-19 Housing Prices

00:20:42 - Land as an Enduringly Important Asset

00:24:34 - Wolf Ladejinsky

00:37:14 - Japan from 1980s Onward

00:47:28 - Land in China

00:56:36 - Henry George

01:00:42 - Outro

Lukasz Rachel on Non-Ricardian Macroeconomic Policy and Its Implications for Inflation Nov 17, 2025

Show notes

Lukasz Rachel is a former Bank of England economist and currently is an assistant professor of economics at the University College of London. In Lukasz's first appearance on the show he discusses his big career breaks, the implications of secular stagnation in the industrialized world, what is next for R-star, what non-Ricardian macro policy looks like, his policy prescriptions for the US, and much more.

Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links.

Recorded on October 29th, 2025

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Timestamps

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:42 - Lukasz's Career

00:07:30 - Secular Stagnation in the Industrialized World

00:21:08 - What Next for R-Star?

00:36:11 - Brothers in Arms: Monetary-Fiscal Interactions

00:49:53 - Policy Recommendations

00:51:03 - Outro

Tara Sinclair on Building a Synthetic FOMC Through AI Nov 10, 2025

Show notes

Tara Sinclair is a professor and chair of the economics department at George Washington University. Tara returns to the show to discuss her ambitious paper simulating an FOMC meeting before it happens with LLM models, the process of building sim FOMC members, the importance of publicly funding economic data, the future of AI and macroeconomics, and much more.

Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links.

Recorded on October 27th, 2025

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Timestamps

00:00:00 - Intro

00:01:44 - Data and Policymaking

00:05:28 - Federal Forecasters Conference

00:08:01 - FOMC in Silico

00:32:56 - Future Applications

00:38:29 - Broader Implications

00:42:57 - Central Bank Governance and AI

00:51:40 - Outro

Bryan Cutsinger on the What the History of Growth Driven Deflation Can Teach us about a Potential AI Boom Nov 03, 2025

Show notes

Bryan Cutsinger is a monetary historian and an assistant professor of economics at Florida Atlantic University. Bryan returns to the show to discuss how we think about deflation, the history of growth driven deflation, the connection between the postbellum period and today, the potential of rapid productivity growth from AI, and much more.

Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links.

Recorded on September 23rd, 2025

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Timestamps

00:00:00 - Intro

00:04:41 - Rethinking Deflation

00:35:48 - Rapid Productivity Growth from AI

00:46:35 - Tolerating Deflation

00:55:28 - Outro

Will Roberds and Steve Quinn on the Original Central Bank: the Bank of Amsterdam Oct 27, 2025

Show notes

Will Roberds is an economist emeritus of the research department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Steve Quinn is a professor of economics at Texas Christian University. In Will and Steve's first appearance on the show they discuss the historical significance of the Bank of Amsterdam, The use of ledger at the Bank of Amsterdam, It's use of repo and open market operations, it's connection to central banking today, and much more.

Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links.

Recorded on September 23rd, 2025

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Timestamps

00:00:00 - Intro

00:00:53 - Bank of Amsterdam

00:10:31 - Bank of Amsterdam's Ledger

00:32:09 - Motivations

00:36:49 - Seven Years' War

00:40:53 - The Repo Versus the Open Market

00:56:30 - Outro

Jim Clouse on the Last 4 Decades at the Most Powerful Central Bank in the World Oct 20, 2025

Show notes

Jim Clouse is a veteran of the Federal Reserve System and is currently a fellow at the Andersen Institute. In Jim's first appearance on the show, he discusses the evolution of monetary rules at the Fed, what happened at the Fed during Y2K, 9/11, the Great Financial Crisis, and the COVID Pandemic, the ever changing stigma of the discount window, Ted Cruz's calls to end interest on reserves, and much more.

Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links.

Recorded on September 11th, 2025

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Timestamps

00:00:00 - Intro

00:03:16 - Jim's Career

00:05:38 - Monetary Rules at the Fed

00:09:12 - Increasing Transparency at the Fed

00:17:25 - Y2K and the Fed

00:26:19 - Discount Window

00:32:21 - Global Financial Crisis

00:39:10 - Covid Pandemic

00:46:10 - Jim's Current Research

01:00:31 - Outro

Manmohan Singh on the Meaning of Money after the GENIUS Act Oct 13, 2025

Show notes

Manmohan Singh is the editor-in-chief of the Journal of Financial Markets Infrastructure. Manmohan returns to the show to discuss whether money still matters, the impacts of the GENIUS ACT, the lobbying show down over stablecoins in the US, stablecoins impact on the Eurodollar market, and much more.

Check out the transcript for this week's episode, now with links.

Recorded on September 10th, 2025

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Timestamps

00:00:00 - Intro

00:02:12 - Does Money Still Matter?

00:10:33 - Stablecoins

00:37:53 - Stablecoins and the Eurodollar Market