Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Latest Episodes:

James Sweeney on the Money View Framework and COVID-19's Implications for the Macro Economy Mar 16, 2020

Show notes

James Sweeney is the chief economist at Credit Suisse and joins us today as a part of our ongoing special coverage to talk about the coronavirus or COVID-19 and its implications for the economy. Specifically, David and James discuss what this pandemic means for the plumbing of the financial system, interest rates, and the type of recession we might experience.

Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings

James's Credit Suisse profile: https://www.credit-suisse.com/microsites/conferences/aic/en/speakers/cs-experts/james-sweeney.html

Related Links:

*Global Money Notes #27: Covid-19 and Global Dollar Funding* by Zoltan Pozsar and James Sweeney

https://plus.credit-suisse.com/rpc4/ravDocView?docid=V7k0P32AC-WEqAJ7

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Megan Greene on How to Use Monetary and Fiscal Policy to Fight the Coronavirus Crisis Mar 11, 2020

Show notes

Megan Greene is a senior fellow at Harvard University's Kennedy School and a senior fellow in international economics at Chatham House. Formerly, Megan was a chief economist on Wall Street and she currently has a bi-weekly column in the Financial Times on global macroeconomics. She joins the show today to talk about the coronavirus and the appropriate policy response to it as well as the future countercyclical macro policy in the United States. David and Megan also discuss the Fed's future framework, arguments against the recent 50 basis point rate cut, and why the Fed should consider following the ECB's lead on TLTROs as well as negative interest rates.

Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings

Megan's Twitter: @economistmeg

Megan's website: https://economistmeg.com/about/

Related Links:

*Coronavirus May Be Worse Than Wall Street Is Wagering* by Megan Greene

https://www.ft.com/content/44c9391c-5489-11ea-a1ef-da1721a0541e

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Ben Moll on the Basics of HANK Models and How They Can Be Applied to Policymaking Mar 09, 2020

Show notes

Ben Moll is a professor of economics at the London School of Economics, and is well known for his work on income and wealth distribution in macroeconomics and its implications for policy. Ben joins the show today to talk about this work and provide a look into the growing field of heterogeneous agent models. David and Ben also discuss the history of macro thought, the implications of different transmission mechanisms of monetary policy, and what HANK models mean for forward guidance and other more general makeup policies.

The transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings

Ben's Twitter: @ben_moll

Ben's LSE website: https://benjaminmoll.com/

Related Links:

*Monetary Policy According to HANK* by Greg Kaplan, Ben Moll, and Giovanni Violante

https://www.princeton.edu/~moll/HANK.pdf

*Household Balance Sheet Channels of Monetary Policy: A Back of the Envelope Calculation for the Euro Area* by Jiri Slacalek, Oreste Tristani, and Giovanni Violante

https://cepr.org/active/publications/discussion_papers/dp.php?dpno=14245

*Heterogeneous Agents Macroeconomics Has a Long History, and it Raises Many Questions* by Beatrice Cherrier

https://beatricecherrier.wordpress.com/2018/11/28/heterogeneous-agent-macroeconomics-has-a-long-history-and-it-raises-many-questions/

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Scott Sumner on How Central Banks Should Respond to the Coronavirus Threat Mar 02, 2020

Show notes

Scott Sumner is the Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair of Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, and a returning guest to Macro Musings. Scott joins the show today to talk about the recent market turmoil caused by the COVID-19 coronavirus and its implications for monetary policy. David and Scott also discuss how the Fed should respond to a possible pandemic, why monetary policy is preferable to fiscal policy during a crisis, and how to approach the central bank credibility problem.

Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings

Scott's blog: https://www.themoneyillusion.com/

Scott's Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/scott-sumner

Related Links:

*It's Time for the Fed to Take On the Coronavirus Threat* by David Beckworth

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/02/its-time-for-the-fed-to-take-on-the-coronavirus-threat/

*The Era of Fed Power is Over. Prepare for a More Perilous Road Ahead.* by Greg Ip

https://www.wsj.com/articles/shrinking-influence-of-central-banks-ends-decades-of-business-as-usual-11579103829?mod=rsswn

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Paul Schmelzing on the 'Suprasecular' Decline of Global Real Interest Rates Feb 24, 2020

Show notes

Paul Schmelzing is an economic historian, a visiting scholar at the Bank of England and a postdoc at the Yale University School of Management. Paul has written an influential new paper on the long history of interest rates titled, "Eight centuries of global real interest rates, R-G, and the 'suprasecular' decline, 1311–2018." Specifically, Paul and David discuss the implications of this paper's findings for secular stagnation theory, Thomas Piketty's inegalitarian wealth spiral, and for macroeconomic policy more generally.

Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/macro-musings

Paul's Twitter: @paul_schmelzing

Paul's Harvard profile: https://scholar.harvard.edu/pfschmelzing/bio

Related Links:

* Eight Centuries of Global Real Interest Rates, R-G, and the 'Suprasecular' Decline, 1311–2018* by Paul Schmelzing

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/working-paper/2020/eight-centuries-of-global-real-interest-rates-r-g-and-the-suprasecular-decline-1311-2018

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Ernie Tedeschi on Output Gaps, Labor Markets, and the State of the Economy Feb 17, 2020

Show notes

Ernie Tedeschi is a policy economist and the head of fiscal analysis at Evercore ISI, a macro advisory firm. He is also an occasional contributor to The Upshot section at The New York Times. Previously, Ernie was a senior advisor and an economist at the US Department of Treasury. His research interests include the federal budget, monetary policy, and labor markets. Ernie joins the show to talk about output gaps, full employment, labor markets, and the state of the economy. Specifically, Ernie and David discuss Ernie's recent articles titled *Participation in the Hot Labor Market* and *Pay is Rising Fastest for Low Earners, One Reason? Minimum Wages.*

Transcript for the episode can be found here: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/tags/monetary-policy

Ernie's Twitter: @ernietedeschi

Ernie's blog: https://medium.com/bonothesauro

Related Links:

*Participation and the Hot Labor Market* by Ernie Tedeschi

https://medium.com/@employamerica/participation-and-the-hot-labor-market-a84ef77a3bb1

*Pay is Rising Fastest for Low Earners. One Reason? Minimum Wages.* by Ernie Tedeschi

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/03/upshot/minimum-wage-boost-bottom-earners.html

*Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects* by Stephanie Aaronson, Tomaz Cajner, Bruce Fallick, Felix Galbis-Reig, Christopher L. Smith, and William Wascher

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2495029

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Brent Skorup on Autonomous Vehicles, Flying Cars, and Airspace as a Scarce Resource Feb 10, 2020

Show notes

Brent Skorup is a senior research fellow at the Mercatus Center where he specializes in transportation technology, telecommunications, aviation, and wireless policy. Brent also serves on the FCC's broadband deployment advisory committee and the Texas Department of Transportation's autonomous vehicle task force, and he has recent spoke on the topic of airspace design at the Global Air Traffic Management Conference in Dubai. He joins the show today to talk about the future of transportation, including flying cars and highways in the sky. Brent and David also discuss the concept of auctioning airspace, the macroeconomic implications of technological innovation, and how to build or improve infrastructure for autonomous vehicles in the future.

Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/02102020/brent-skorup-autonomous-vehicles-flying-cars-and-airspace-scarce-resource

Brent's Twitter: @bskorup

Brent's Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/brent-skorup

Related Links:

*Your Flying Car Will Be Here Sooner Than You Think* by Brent Skorup

https://www.wsj.com/articles/your-flying-car-will-be-here-sooner-than-you-think-1542327046

*Auctioning Airspace* by Brent Skorup

https://www.mercatus.org/system/files/skorup-auctioning-airspace-mercatus-working-paper-v1.pdf

*Smart Cities, Dumb Infrastructure* by Korok Ray & Brent Skorup

https://www.mercatus.org/publications/technology-and-innovation/smart-cities-dumb-infrastructure

*Auto Purchase Trends, Mobility as a Service, and Autonomous Vehicle Adoption* by Brent Skorup

https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/commentary/auto-purchase-trends-mobility-service-and-autonomous-vehicle-adoption

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Marc Lavoie on Canadian Central Bank Policy, Real-time Payments, and the Post-Keynesian Tradition Feb 03, 2020

Show notes

Marc Lavoie is a professor of economics at the University of Ottawa and an author a recent article on the Bank of Canada's operating system. Marc is also the coauthor of a popular textbook titled, *Monetary Economics: An integrated Approach to Credit, Money, Income, Production, and Wealth.* He joins the show today to talk about these works and more. David and Marc also discuss differences between post-Keynesian and mainstream macroeconomics, the history and defining characteristics of Canada's corridor operating system, and what ideal central bank policy might look like for Canada in the future.

Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/02032020/marc-lavoie-canadian-central-bank-policy-real-time-payments-and-post

Marc's University of Ottawa profile: https://uniweb.uottawa.ca/members/942/profile

Marc's Institute for New Economic Thinking archive: https://www.ineteconomics.org/research/experts/mlavoie

Related Links:

*A System with Zero Reserves and with Clearing Outside of the Central Bank: The Canadian Case* by Marc Lavoie

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09538259.2019.1616922

*Monetary Economics: An Integrated Approach to Credit, Money, Income, Production and Wealth* by Wynne Godley and Marc Lavoie

https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-1-137-08599-3

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Joseph Gagnon on Central Banks' Ability to Fight the Next Recession Jan 27, 2020

Show notes

Joseph Gagnon is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and formerly, a senior staffer at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Joseph is also a returning guest to Macro Musings, and he joins the show today to discuss his recent policy brief titled, "Are Central Banks Out of Ammunition to Fight a Recession? Not quite." Specifically, David and Joseph discuss the variety of monetary policy tools available to central banks to combat the next recession (with special emphasis on the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan). Joseph also makes the case that the ECB should adopt a formal review of its monetary policy framework.

Transcript for the episode: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/01242020/joseph-gagnon-central-banks%E2%80%99-ability-fight-next-recession

Joseph's Twitter: @GagnonMacro

Joseph's PIIE profile: https://www.piie.com/experts/senior-research-staff/joseph-e-gagnon

Related Links:

*Are Central Banks Out of Ammunition to Fight a Recession? Not Quite.* by Joseph Gagnon & Christopher Collins

https://www.piie.com/publications/policy-briefs/are-central-banks-out-ammunition-fight-recession-not-quite

*Priorities for Review of the ECB's Monetary Policy Strategy* by Jeremie Cohen-Setton, Christopher Collins, and Joseph Gagnon

https://www.piie.com/commentary/speeches-papers/priorities-review-ecbs-monetary-policy-strategy

*How Did Quantitative Easing Really Work? A New Methodology for Measuring the Fed's Impact on Financial Markets* by Ramin Toloui

https://siepr.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/19-032.pdf

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Macro Musings Producers' Special – A Recap of 2019 and a Glimpse into the Future Jan 20, 2020

Show notes

To accompany the new year, David Beckworth is joined by the producers of Macro Musings, Marc and Carter, to talk about the highlights of the podcast throughout 2019, including their personal favorite episodes and the top episodes according to listener statistics. They also discuss some of the most important macroeconomic issues and events of the past year, including the yield curve inversion and ensuing recession speculation, the secular decline of interest rates, the Fed's big 2019 review, and more.

A massive thank you to all of our listeners who have tuned in over the past few years, and we hope you continue to tune in for more exciting content as we navigate through 2020.

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Related Links:

Producers' Top 3 Episodes:

Robert Graboyes: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/05132019/robert-graboyes-monetary-history-small-coins

Bryan Cutsinger: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/03292019/civil-war-and-economics-seigniorage

Salim Furth: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/06242019/land-use-regulations-rise-nimbyism-and-options-reform

Listeners' Top 3 Episode:

Peter Stella: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/02182019/peter-stella-debt-safe-assets-and-central-bank-operations

Tyler Cowen: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/07222019/tyler-cowen-culture-big-business-united-states

Michael Strain: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/03042019/populism-mmt-and-billionaires

David's Top 3 Episodes:

Donald Kohn: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/02012019/burns-powell