Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Latest Episodes:

Robert Kaplan on the Fed's New Framework, Inflation, and the Post-COVID Economy Feb 08, 2021

Show notes

Robert Kaplan is the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Previously, he was a professor and Associate Dean at Harvard Business School, and prior to that was a Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs. Robert is a returning guest to the podcast, and he rejoins Macro Musings to discuss the Fed's new framework, inflation, interest rates and more. Specifically, David and Robert talk about COVID's impact on FOMC operations, how demographic trends are impacting productivity, the Fed's expanding balance sheet, its average inflation targeting framework, and more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Robert's Twitter: @RobSKaplan

Robert's Dallas Fed profile: https://www.dallasfed.org/en/fed/bios/kaplan.aspx

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Daniel Griswold on US Demographic Decline and the Case for Expanding Immigration Feb 01, 2021

Show notes

Daniel Griswold is a senior affiliated scholar at the Mercatus Center and a nationally recognized expert on trade and immigration policy. Dan is also a returning guest is to the podcast, and joins Macro Musings to talk about immigration policy and the outlook for trade policy with the new Biden Administration. Specifically, David and Dan discuss the major demographic decline in the US, and how greater levels of immigration and can solve many of America's economic concerns.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Dan's Twitter: @danielgriswold

Dan's Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/daniel-griswold

Related Links:

*More Immigration Needed to Offset COVID-19 and America's Demographic Decline* by Daniel Griswold

https://www.mercatus.org/publications/trade-and-immigration/more-immigration-needed-offset-covid-19-and-america%E2%80%99s-demographic

*Half a Million Fewer Children? The Coming COVID Baby Bust* by Melissa Kearney and Phillip Levine

https://www.brookings.edu/research/half-a-million-fewer-children-the-coming-covid-baby-bust/

*World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights* by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division at the United Nations

https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/Files/WPP2019_Highlights.pdf

*The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050* by Joel Kotkin

https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/298866/the-next-hundred-million-by-joel-kotkin/9781101195703

*Fertility, Mortality, Migration, and Population Scenarios for 195 Countries and Territories from 2017 to 2100: A Forecasting Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study* by Stein Emil Vollset et al.

https://www.thelancet.com/article/S0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext

*Clashing over Commerce: A History of US Trade Policy* by Douglas Irwin

https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/C/bo24475328.html

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Sam Bell on Fed Policy, Personnel, and Politics in 2021 Jan 25, 2021

Show notes

Sam Bell is the policy director of Employ America, a think tank dedicated to having the economy run at full employment levels. Sam is also known on FOMC Twitter as an influencer when it comes to nominations for the Board of Governors. Sam returns to Macro Musings to talk about what 2021 likely has in store for the Fed. Specifically, Sam and David discuss Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida's vision for temporary price level targeting, the prospects of Jay Powell and Lael Brainard (and others) for the next Fed chair, the significance of Janet Yellen's treasury secretary appointment, and the political pressures facing the Fed in 2021.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Sam's Twitter: @sam_a_bell

About Employ America: https://employamerica.org/about/

Related Links:

*Monetary Policy Strategies for a Low-Rate Environment* by Ben Bernanke, Michael Kiley, and John Roberts

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/pandp.20191082

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Caleb Watney on *Cracks in the Great Stagnation* and How to Boost Economic Growth Jan 18, 2021

Show notes

Caleb Watney is the director of innovation policy at the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) and he joins Macro Musings to talk about his recent piece, *Cracks in the Great Stagnation* and the reasons why we should all be techno-optimists. Specifically, David and Caleb discuss greater skilled immigration, further government R&D spending, innovative energy solutions, and more as ways to help repair an economy plagued by secular stagnation.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Caleb's Twitter: @calebwatney

Caleb's PPI profile: https://www.progressivepolicy.org/people/caleb-watney/

Related Links:

*Cracks in the Great Stagnation* Caleb Watney

https://www.agglomerations.tech/cracks-in-the-great-stagnation/

*The Egghead Gap* by Caleb Watney

https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/the-egghead-gap

*Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?* by Nicholas Bloom, Charles Jones, John Van Reenen, and Michael Webb

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20180338

*Is the Rate of Scientific Progress Slowing Down?* by Tyler Cowen and Ben Southwood

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1cEBsj18Y4NnVx5Qdu43cKEHMaVBODTTyfHBa8GIRSec/edit

*The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies* by Erik Brynjolfsson, Daniel Rock, and Chad Syverson

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w25148/w25148.pdf

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Scott Sumner on the Princeton School of Macroeconomics and Overcoming Inflationary Fears Jan 11, 2021

Show notes

Scott Sumner is the Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair of Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center and a returning guest to Macro Musings. He joins the podcast today to talk about his ongoing work on the Princeton School of Macroeconomics as well as his thoughts on monetary policy in 2021. Specifically, David and Scott discuss the economic contributions of various different Princeton economists as well as how the central bank can overcome inflationary fears and establish further institutional credibility.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Scott's automated Twitter: @MoneyIllusion

Scott's blog: https://www.themoneyillusion.com/

Scott's Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/scott-sumner

Related Links:

*It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap* by Paul Krugman, Kathryn Dominguez, and Kenneth Rogoff

https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/its-baaack-japans-slump-and-the-return-of-the-liquidity-trap/

*Great Expectations and the End of the Depression* by Gauti Eggertsson

https://www.jstor.org/stable/29730131?seq=1

*The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy* by Gauti Eggertsson and Michael Woodford

https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/the-zero-bound-on-interest-rates-and-optimal-monetary-policy/

*Methods of Policy Accommodation at the Interest-Rate Lower Bound* by Michael Woodford

https://kansascityfed.org/publicat/sympos/2012/mw.pdf

*Bernanke's No-arbitrage Argument Revisited: Can Open Market Operations in Real Assets Eliminate the Liquidity Trap?* By Gauti Eggertsson and Kevin Proulx

https://www.nber.org/papers/w22243

*Japanese Monetary Policy: A Case of Self-Induced Paralysis?* by Ben Bernanke

https://www.princeton.edu/~pkrugman/bernanke_paralysis.pdf

*Implementing Optimal Policy through Inflation-Forecast Targeting* by Lars Svensson and Michael Woodford

https://www.nber.org/papers/w9747

*Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others* by Lars Svensson

https://www.nber.org/papers/w10195

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Josh Galper on Dealing with Climate Risk and Its Potential Impact on US Financial Markets Jan 04, 2021

Show notes

Josh Galper is the managing principal at Finadium, an independent consultancy in capital markets, and is deep in the trenches of the money markets, as well as the financial regulatory space. As a returning guest to the podcast, Josh rejoins Macro Musings to talk about some of the big changes we might see in financial regulation, especially as it relates to climate issues under the new Biden administration. David and Josh also discuss the prospects of negative interest rates in the US, the influence of the Financial Stability Board, and how to deal with Treasury and repo market stress in the future.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Josh's Twitter: @Finadium

Josh's Finadium profile: https://finadium.com/josh-galper-mba/

Related Links:

*Fed Joins Central Bankers Backing Paris Climate Goals* by Martin Arnold

https://www.ft.com/content/008a12d2-7736-4db0-af9c-e063a0bcdd7a

*Managing Climate Risk in the U.S. Financial System* by the Climate Market Risk Subcommittee, Mark Risk Advisory Committee of the CFTC

https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-09/9-9-20%20Report%20of%20the%20Subcommittee%20on%20Climate-Related%20Market%20Risk%20-%20Managing%20Climate%20Risk%20in%20the%20U.S.%20Financial%20System%20for%20posting.pdf

*Fixing Financial Data to Assess Systemic Risk* by Greg Feldberg

https://www.brookings.edu/research/fixing-financial-data-to-assess-systemic-risk/

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Macro Musings Producer Special – Recapping 2020 and Looking Ahead to the Future Dec 28, 2020

Show notes

As a tumultuous, virus-stricken 2020 comes to an end, David is joined by Macro Musings producer Marc Dupont to discuss the highlights of the show throughout the past year. Specifically, they talk about the big macroeconomic themes and takeaways from the last 12 months, which guests and topics were most popular among listeners, what 2020 may have in store for monetary policy, and more.

A special thank you to all of the Macro Musings listeners around the globe who continue to tune in to the show week in and week out, especially during these tough and uncertain times. Stay tuned for more exciting content as we turn a new page in 2021.

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Marc's Twitter: @marc_c_dupont

Related Links:

Top 10 Macro Musings Episodes in 2020:

Adam Tooze on Dollar Dominance, the Eurozone, and the Future of Global Finance - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/adam-tooze-on-dollar-dominance-the-eurozone-and-the-future-of-global-finance

Jim Tankersley on the State of the Middle Class and How to Boost Economic Growth - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/jim-tankersley-on-the-state-of-the-middle-class-and-how-to-boost-economic-growth

Eric Sims on New Keynesian Modelling and the Future of Macroeconomics in a Low Interest Rate Environment - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/eric-sims-on-new-keynesian-modelling-and-the-future-of-macroeconomics-in-a-low-interest-rate-environment

Paul Schmelzing on the 'Suprasecular' Decline of Global Real Interest Rates - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/paul-schmelzing-on-the-suprasecular-decline-of-global-real-interest-rates

Nathan Tankus on Public Finance in the COVID-19 Crisis: A Consolidated Budget Balance View and Its Implications for Policy - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/nathan-tankus-on-public-finance-in-the-covid-19-crisis-a-consolidated-budget-balance-view-and-its-implications-for-policy

Brad Setser on Addressing the Global Dollar Shortage and COVID-19's Implications for Worldwide Trade Imbalances - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/brad-setser-on-addressing-the-global-dollar-shortage-and-covid-19s-implications-for-worldwide-trade-imbalances

Matthew Klein on Global Trade, Inequality, and International Conflict - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/matthew-klein-on-global-trade-wealth-inequality-and-international-conflict

Jim Bianco on Policy Responses to the Coronavirus: Details, Implications, and Concerns Moving Forward - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/jim-bianco-on-policy-responses-to-the-coronavirus-details-implications-and-concerns-moving-forward

Jon Sindreu on Global Financial Flows and the Balance of Trade - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/jon-sindreu-on-global-financial-flows-and-the-balance-of-trade

Scott Sumner on How Central Banks Should Respond to the Coronavirus Threat - https://macromusings.libsyn.com/scott-sumner-on-how-central-banks-should-respond-to-the-coronavirus-threat

Jeanna Smialek on the Year-End Review of 2020 Financial Markets, the Fed, and US Monetary Policy Dec 21, 2020

Show notes

Jeanna Smialek covers the Federal Reserve and the economy for The New York Times, and joins Macro Musings to recap and summarize the highs and lows of US monetary policy during 2020. Specifically, David and Jeanna discuss the recent histories of Federal Reserve rate hikes and the persistence of low inflation, the nascent optimism about the economy at the start of 2020, the Fed's policy response to COVID, and what lessons the Fed will be taking into the future.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Jeanna's Twitter: @jeannasmialek

Jeanna's New York Times archive: https://www.nytimes.com/by/jeanna-smialek

Related Links:

*Janet Yellen's Lift Off (CMFA Working Paper No. 001)* by George Selgin

https://www.alt-m.org/2020/12/04/janet-yellens-lift-off-cmfa-working-paper-no-001/

*Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants* by Kathryn Holston and Thomas Laubach

https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2016-11.pdf

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

David's blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Ethan Ilzetzki on Exchange Rate Volatility, the ECB's Strategy Review, and the Future of the Euro Dec 14, 2020

Show notes

Ethan Ilzetzki is an associate professor of economics at the London School of Economics and a research affiliate with the Centre for Economic Policy Research. Ethan is also a returning guest to the show, and he re-joins Macro Musings to talk about the European Central Bank's big strategy review, the future of the Euro, and whether change is afoot in our international monetary system.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Ethan's Twitter: @ilzetzki

Ethan's website: https://www.ilzetzki.com/

Related Links:

*Why Is the Euro Punching Below Its Weight?* by Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff

https://www.nber.org/papers/w26760

*Will the Secular Decline in Exchange Rate and Inflation Volatility Survive COVID-19?* by Ethan Ilzetzki, Carmen Reinhart, and Kenneth Rogoff

https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/will-the-secular-decline-in-exchange-rate-and-inflation-volatility-survive-covid-19/

Centre for Macroeconomics Panel of Experts Surveys: https://cfmsurvey.org/surveys

*Ethan Ilzetzki on the US Dollar as an Anchor Currency*

https://macromusings.libsyn.com/56-ethan-ilzetzki-on-the-us-dollar-as-an-anchor-currency

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

David's blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/

Governor Benjamin Diokno on BSP Policy and the Philippine Economy Dec 07, 2020

Show notes

Governor Benjamin Diokno is the current head of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, or BSP, which is the central bank of the Republic of the Philippines. The Governor joins David on Macro Musings to shed light on the art and science of central banking from an emerging market perspective, as seen through the experience in the Philippines. Specifically, Governor Diokno and David discuss the structure, mandate, and operating system of the BSP, how the BSP has managed to avoid the zero lower bound, the prospects of a Philippine central bank digital currency, and how a flexible exchange rate has helped the BSP hedge against dollar volatility.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Gov. Diokno's Twitter: @GovBenDiokno

Gov. Diokno's World Bank profile: https://live.worldbank.org/experts/benjamin-e-diokno

Related Links:

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas website: https://www.bsp.gov.ph/SitePages/Default.aspx

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

David's blog: http://macromarketmusings.blogspot.com/