Macro Mondays

Latest Episodes:

Why Did the Iran War Restart? | Macro Mondays July 13, 2026 Jul 13, 2026

Show notes

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back with the latest Macro Mondays to discuss the latest escalation in the Middle East and what the impact might be; a slowdown in Korean chip exports and what it tells us about the health of the AI trade; and a worrying new trend in the U.S.-China rivalry.
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Timestamps:
00:22 - Strait of Hormuz Crisis Returns: Should Markets Worry?
02:24 - Trump Wants the US to Control the Strait of Hormuz
03:53 - Oil Flows, Dark Tankers, and the Real Supply Risk
06:12 - How Long Can the US and China Cover the Oil Shortfall?
08:29 - Jet Fuel, Diesel, and the Inflation Risk Markets Are Missing
10:22 - CPI Preview: Could Inflation Surprise Sharply Lower?
15:23 - Memory Stocks, Semiconductor Demand, and the AI CapEx Boom
19:18 - South Korea Exports: Has the Memory Trade Finally Peaked?
22:58 - ASML Earnings and the Next Test for AI Stocks
24:42 - US-China Decoupling, Critical Metals, and the Dollar Trade

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The Fed's Mistake | Macro Mondays: July 6, 2026 Jul 06, 2026

Show notes

Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to tackle one of the biggest questions in markets right now: have central banks misread the macro backdrop? They break down why inflation may be falling faster than policymakers expect, whether investors are once again wrong on oil, and discuss the political and economic implications of the FIFA World Cup.
00:22 - Macro Mondays: Inflation, Oil, Korea, and the Memory Trade
03:41 - Inflation Is Rolling Over Faster Than Markets Expect
08:17 - Oil Outlook: Why the Hormuz Shock Never Became a Crisis
10:19 - Strait of Hormuz Bypass Trade and China’s Oil Buying Strike
13:03 - Why Iran Has Already Lost Leverage Over Hormuz
20:48 - Meta, AI Compute Demand, and Why CapEx Isn’t Slowing Down
22:57 - Korea Exports, HBM Demand, and the Next Leg of the Memory Trade
26:44 - Samsung Earnings, Hynix Listings, and What Comes Next for AI Stocks
#macro #andreassteno #macromondays #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #geopolitics

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Is Everyone Wrong About the Dollar? | Macro Mondays: June 26, 2026 Jun 29, 2026

Show notes

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back in an episode of Macro Mondays that covers why everyone is wrong-footed on U.S. dollar positioning, what the latest developments in the U.S.–Iran ceasefire are, and previews a consequential week for markets ahead, packed with Manufacturing PMI, Nonfarm Payrolls data, and Kevin Warsh's speech.
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00:22 - Macro Mondays Returns: Dollar, Hormuz, and Kevin Warsh Preview
03:01 - June Winners and Losers: Memory Stocks, Biotech, and the Dollar
05:11 - Is the Hormuz War Back On or Is Oil Still Flowing?
09:11 - Is Everyone Wrong on the US Dollar?
13:34 - Kevin Warsh’s Big Test: Will the Fed Pivot Again?
17:42 - Jobs Report Preview: Why Payrolls Could Surprise Lower
20:32 - How to Position Your Portfolio Heading Into Summer Vacation
23:30 - AI Trade Check-In: Token Prices, Micron, and Memory Demand
27:30 - Apple, China Memory Chips, and the Next Consumer Scarcity Risk
#macromondays #realvision #andreassteno #mikkelrosenvold #geopolitcs #macro

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Is Oil Still Flowing? | Macro Mondays: Monday, June 22, 2026 Jun 22, 2026

Show notes

Andreas Steno is back flying solo again to answer the question that matters most for markets right now: Is the oil still flowing? Andreas examines what we actually know about energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, how oil markets have responded, and why the feared supply shock never materialized.
01:00 - Macro Mondays: Is the Oil Still Flowing? What Markets Need to Know
03:22 - Strait of Hormuz Reopens? What the Shipping Data Really Shows
05:25 - Oil, Jet Fuel, and Fertilizer Prices Are Rolling Over Fast
07:51 - Falling Inflation Changes the Entire Macro Regime
09:24 - Why Central Banks Still Haven’t Caught Up to the Disinflation Shift
13:17 - Anthropic Export Curbs and the New AI Arms Race
17:51 - SpaceX IPO Mania and What It Says About Risk Appetite
19:55 - IPO Boom, Liquidity, and Why This Cycle May Still Have Room to Run
22:45 - South Korea Exports and Why Semiconductors Still Look Strong
17:15 - Defining Therapeutics, Psychedelics, and the Next Big Micro Trade
19:35 - MicroStrategy, Bitcoin Risk, and What Actually Matters Now
#macro #andreassteno #macromondays #realvision

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Is The Iran-US Deal Actually Done?! with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays Jun 15, 2026

Show notes

Andreas Steno is back to break down recent market volatility, unpacking all the key drivers, from global liquidity dynamics to the evolving peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, which has seemingly opened the Strait of Hormuz. But is the deal actually done!?
00:07 - US-Iran Deal Nears: What It Means for Markets
02:00 - Inside the 60-Day Iran Deal and Strait of Hormuz Reopening
04:37 - Oil Market Surplus: Why Crude Could Fall Below $70
08:02 - Iran Sanctions Lifted: The New Supply Shock for Global Oil
10:56 - ECB Rate Hike Timing Looks Worse After Hormuz Breakthrough
13:17 - Anthropic Export Curbs: Why AI Models Are Becoming Too Big to Fail
17:51 - SpaceX IPO Surge and What It Says About Risk Appetite
19:55 - IPO Boom, Liquidity, and Why This Cycle May Have Further to Run
21:08 - AI Token Pricing, OpenAI, and Anthropic Ahead of IPO Season
22:45 - South Korea Exports, Semiconductors, and the Next Leg of the AI Trade

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Panic or No Panic? | Macro Mondays: June 8, 2026 Jun 08, 2026

Show notes

Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down Red Friday and whether the market reaction to the latest jobs report was justified. They unpack what the data is really saying about growth, labor markets, liquidity, and the path for risk assets heading into summer.
Timestamps:
01:05 - Macro Mondays: Red Friday, Jobs Shock, and Middle East Risk
03:15 - Real Vision Updates, Alpha Access, and This Week’s Schedule
05:40 - What Actually Caused Friday’s Market Selloff?
07:21 - Nasdaq Damage, CTA Flows, and Why the Straight-Line Rally Is Over
09:45 - Was Friday a VaR Shock and What Happens Next?
12:06 - The Jobs Report, World Cup Hiring, and Why Payrolls Beat Expectations
14:07 - Kevin Warsh, the Fed, and Why Rate Cuts Just Got Harder
17:38 - SpaceX IPO, Big Tech Equity Raises, and the Liquidity Squeeze
22:01 - The One Chart to Watch: AI Token Pricing and the Data Center Trade
24:37 - Iran, Israel, and Why Markets Still Aren’t Panicking
27:24 - Oil, Fertilizer, and Why the Hormuz Crisis Trade Keeps Fading
#macro #andreassteno #macromondays #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #geopolitics #markets #Iran #jobs

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3 Banger Trades For June | Macro Mondays: June 1, 2026 Jun 01, 2026

Show notes

Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down the key macro themes driving markets into June. From the latest developments in Iran to bottlenecks and bitcoin, they unpack what could become the next key trades, and whether liquidity and macro data can continue to support the meteoric rise in risk assets.
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01:06 - Macro Mondays: Iran Talks, ISM Strength, and June Trade Ideas
02:30 - State of the Union Preview: Why Macro Still Drives Everything
04:34 - Strong ISM Print and Why US Manufacturing Keeps Accelerating
06:00 - Iran Talks Break Down Again: How Fragile Is the Ceasefire?
07:30 - Why Markets Are Still Taking the Iran Headlines in Stride
10:16 - How Long Can the Global Economy Handle a Closed Hormuz?
12:34 - June Outlook: Thematics, Trade Setups, and What Still Works
13:20 - Industrial Robotics, Real-World AI, and the Next Training Bottleneck
16:54 - Liquidity in June: Treasury Cash Drawdown and Easier Leverage
20:19 - Why Bitcoin Is the Only Risk Asset Not Joining the Rally
22:53 - Three Trades for June: Security Software, Server Makers, and Drones
27:19 - Claude, ServiceNow, and the New AI-Driven Momentum Trade

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Is Iran War Deal Imminent? | Macro Mondays: May 25, 2025 May 25, 2026

Show notes

Real Vision’s Mikkel Rosenvold and Andreas Steno Larsen break down the latest market reaction to reports of a possible Strait of Hormuz deal, what it could mean for oil and inflation, and why the next phase of the market may depend on whether Middle East tensions truly de-escalate. They also explore a surprising inflation driver in hardware and semiconductors, explain why consumer spending is holding up better than many expect, and share the sectors they’re watching next.
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Monarch Sponsor
01:00 - Macro Mondays: Iran, Hormuz, and Global Markets
01:31 - Strait of Hormuz Deal Rumors and Market Reaction
02:50 - Europe’s Heat Wave and the Energy Debate
04:21 - Trump, Iran, and the Weekend Negotiation Push
06:01 - Can Trump Sell an Iran Deal to Republicans?
07:12 - Abraham Accords, Iran, and Middle East Strategy
07:59 - Oil Drops, Bond Yields Fall, and Markets Rally
09:11 - Are Iranian Ships Actually Moving Through Hormuz?
10:58 - Why Markets Care More About Hormuz Than Politics
13:03 - Inflation Outlook: Energy vs Consumer Prices
14:20 - Kevin Warsh, AI, and the Disinflation Argument
17:45 - Which Sectors Benefit Most From Inflation?
18:45 - Why AI Hardware Is Suddenly Inflationary
21:08 - The AI Memory Boom and Rising Electronics Prices
23:39 - Why Hardware Stocks Have Outperformed in 2026
24:02 - What Happens if Inflation Peaks in June?
25:20 - Consumer Spending Is Holding Up Surprisingly Well
27:01 - Amazon, Tesla, and Luxury Stocks as the Next Trade
28:11 - PCE Inflation Data: What Markets Need This Week
29:28 - Final Thoughts: Waiting on the Iran Deal

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Are Markets Ignoring Inflation? | Macro Mondays: May 18, 2026 May 18, 2026

Show notes

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down the aftermath of the highly anticipated meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. They also dive into rising bond yields, whether markets should start worrying about rates again, and if the latest inflation reports signal something more persistent beneath the surface.
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Monarch Sponsor
01:05 - Macro Mondays: Trump-Xi, Rates, Inflation, and Iran Hopeium
02:40 - Andrew Tate’s 30-Year Bond Trade and Why Long Yields Matter
06:03 - Why Rising Bond Yields May Not Mean What They Used To
10:20 - Hot CPI, PPI, and Why the Fed Still May Not Hike
14:40 - Iran Talks, Oil, and What Could Restart the Rally
16:39 - Why China-US Cooperation Is Keeping the Oil Market Balanced
19:22 - Will Trump Pivot Back to Rate Cuts After Iran?
23:06 - Semiconductors: Is It Time to Take Profits?
25:13 - Bernie Sanders, AI Data Centers, and the First Political Pushback
29:28 - UK Bonds, Fiscal Worries, and Why Political Risk May Be Overstated

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It’s Beginning To Look A Lot Like COVID! | Macro Monday's May 11, 2026 May 11, 2026

Show notes

Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down why today’s macro environment is starting to resemble 2021, from renewed concerns around the Hanta virus to rising input costs and supply chain pressures. Additionally, they assess the highly anticipated meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, and monitor the latest developments in peace talks for both Iran and Ukraine.
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Timestamps:
01:07 - Why 2026 Is Starting to Look Like 2021
03:17 - Hantavirus, Covid Flashbacks, and Why Markets Should Ignore It
06:30 - Easy Dollar Liquidity, SLR Reform, and the Return of Risk Appetite
11:27 - Tomorrow’s CPI Report and the Next Inflation Wave
13:29 - Iran, Oil, and Why Hormuz Is Fading as a Market Driver
15:03 - Trump-Xi Meeting: The Underreported Macro Event of the Week
17:30 - Best Portfolio Hedges for US-China Decoupling
22:21 - Iran, Ukraine, China: Could Easing Geopolitics Extend the Rally?
25:12 - End Consumer Scarcity: The New AI and Semiconductor Trade

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