Macro Horizons

Latest Episodes:

Wake Me Up When the Trade War Ends - The Week Ahead Aug 30, 2019

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Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of September 3rd, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Defense Wins Championships - Monthly High Quality Spreads Roundtable Aug 29, 2019

Show notes

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss why high quality credit spreads are unlikely to widen in the near term as technicals in both Treasury and spread markets remain very supportive. However, they also highlight a few fundamental drivers of spread market weakness that could overwhelm supportive technicals and push spreads wider in the 4thquarter: the ongoing trade war, absolutely spread levels, an inverted yield curve, seasonality, risk emanating from Europe, and what is now expected to be a messy year-end episode after the July FOMC minutes drastically reduced the odds of a Fed repo facility in 2019.

Hanging Up the White Pants - The Week Ahead Aug 23, 2019

Show notes

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of August 26th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

A Credibility Threat - Monthly Roundtable Aug 22, 2019

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Margaret Kerins with Ian Lyngen, Jon Hill, Ben Jeffery and Dan Krieter bring you their thoughts on Fed credibility regarding potential changes to the FOMC’s operating monetary policy framework. They discuss the market implications of inflation make-up strategies, balance sheet expansion efficacy, and delayed expectations for the Fed repo facility on the back of the FOMC July Minutes.

Bond... Long-Bond - The Week Ahead Aug 16, 2019

Show notes

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of August 19th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Summer of Endless Dove - The Week Ahead Aug 09, 2019

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Ian Lyngen and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of August 12th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Chinese Devaluation: Why Put A Label On It? - Monthly Roundtable Aug 07, 2019

Show notes

Trade tensions are mounting, accelerating the post-FOMC risk off sentiment. China let the yuan depreciate beyond 7 per dollar. US Treasury has formally labelled China a Currency Manipulator. 10yr Treasury yields have fallen by over 30bp this past week. The front-end is pricing two full rate cuts and a decent chance of a third before year-end. Credit spreads are wider and swap spreads are narrower. How much further will China let the yuan fall? What are the implications for the US economy, rates and spreads? How will Canada be impacted if the Fed cuts sooner or by more than the market expects?

The Don Days of Summer - The Week Ahead Aug 02, 2019

Show notes

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of August 5th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

And So It Begins - The Week Ahead Jul 26, 2019

Show notes

Ian Lyngen, Ben Jeffery, and Jon Hill bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of July 29th, 2019, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Fed vs Fundamentals - Monthly High Quality Spreads Roundtable Jul 24, 2019

Show notes

The trade war has already caused significant damage to business confidence, additional trade uncertainties remain, and global growth is decelerating. These factors should directly impact corporate profitability later this year, but are not yet reflected in spreads due to the Fed-fueled yield grab. Dan Krieter and Dan Belton bring you their outlook for investment credit spreads as the Fed cuts rates and the economic cycle eventually turns. They also discuss the market impact of the pending Fed Repo Facility in this first edition of their monthly roundtable on high quality spreads.

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