Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Latest Episodes:

Ep. 342: Rory Johnston on Trump's Bullish Impact on Oil Markets, and the Bearish Risks Ahead Jan 23, 2026

Show notes

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast, we discuss:

Trump's Bullish Paradox
Importance of China's SPR
Why OPEC+ Hiked Production
The "Oil on Water" Overhang
Venezuela and Iran
2026 Outlook
US Shale's H2 Roll-over
Long term demand outlook

Ep. 341: Phil Suttle on Trump's Populism, the Productivity Mystery, and Global Disruption Jan 16, 2026

Show notes

Phil is the founder of Suttle Economics – a leading research consultancy. Before that, he held senior roles at Tudor, the Institute of International Finance (IIF), JP Morgan, Barclays, the New York Fed and World Bank. He was educated at Oxford University and lives in the US. In the podcast, we talk about:

US Labour Market Dissonance
Trump's "Elizabeth Warren" Populism
The Productivity Mystery
Fed Under Pressure
Sticky Inflation Through 2027
Global Business Disruptions
Extreme Oil Volatility
Japan's Policy Pivot
China's Sluggish Consumer
European and UK Growth
Historical Parallels to Populism

Ep. 340: Robert Koenigsberger on EM Cycles, China's Turnaround, and the New Era of Private Credit Jan 07, 2026

Show notes

Robert is Founder, Chief Investment Officer and the Managing Partner of the $5bn EM fund, Gramercy. He founded Gramercy in 1998. Robert has 36 years of investment experience dedicated to emerging markets with a specialization in distressed opportunistic credit strategies. He is a member of Gramercy's Management Team and is Co-Chair of the Risk Management Committee. In this podcast we discuss:

EM in 2025: From Caution to FOMO
EM vs DM: A Role Reversal Since COVID
The Problem with EM Labels & Indices
China: From 'Uninvestable' to Selective Opportunity
Russia–Ukraine: Asymmetry, Reconstruction, and Market Blind Spots
The Boom in EM Private Credit
Where the Opportunities Are in EM Private Credit
Mexico, NAFTA 2.0, and Geopolitics
Venezuela and the 'Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine'
Fed Policy: The Only Conviction Is Lack of Conviction
Portfolio Philosophy: Fighting FOMO and Overtrading

Ep. 339: Jay Pelosky on Tech Bubble (or Not), China vs. US, Clean Energy Plays Dec 17, 2025

Show notes

Jay Pelosky is the founder of TPW Advisory. He has over 35 years of buy-side and sell-side financial market experience. Before going independent, Jay was at Morgan Stanley, where he was ranked #1 by Institutional Investor in Global Equity Strategy and Global Asset Allocation Strategy. In this podcast, we discuss:

Tripolar World (TPW) - regional integration in Asia, Europe, and Americas.
Global growth long cycle driven by spending on AI, defense, and climate across regions.
China-US AI competition
The shift from chip quality to power costs as the key AI competitive advantage.
Brazil and Spain's clean energy plays
Why 2025 is not like the 2000 dotcom bubble
Private credit opportunities
Attractive China tech valuations
China's five-year plan
Europe's potential
Countries pressuring institutions to invest domestically rather than in US markets.

Ep. 338: Ken Tropin on Talent Recruitment, Fed Risks, and Biggest Underpriced Trade Dec 12, 2025

Show notes

Ken Tropin is a legend in the macro space. He is the Chairman and the founder of Graham Capital Management (GCM) - $20bn fund. Ken founded GCM in 1994 and has grown the firm into an industry leading alternative investment manager focusing on global macro discretionary and quantitative hedge fund strategies. Prior to founding GCM, Ken had significant experience in the alternative investment industry, including five years (1989 to 1993) as President and Chief Executive Officer of John W. Henry & Company, Inc. and seven years (1982 to 1989) as Senior Vice President and Director of Managed Futures at Dean Witter Reynolds. In this podcast we discuss:

Investment philosophy

Differentiation from multi-strat funds

Talent recruitment strategy; NY office

Fed outlook

Term premium as underpriced

US deficit concerns and duration risk in long-end rates

AI and technology

Global central bank divergence

Inflation pressures

Private credit

Dollar view

Geopolitical risks

Robin Hood Foundation

Ep. 337: Sangeet Paul Choudary on What Everyone Is Getting Wrong on AI Dec 04, 2025

Show notes

Sangeet Paul Choudary is the best-selling co-author of Platform Revolution and author of the new book Reshuffle. He has advised leadership teams at over 40 Fortune 500 companies—including Nestlé, ExxonMobil, Daimler, ING, and Booking.com—as well as pre-IPO tech firms. Sangeet currently serves as a Senior Fellow at the University of California, Berkeley, and has spoken at global forums such as the G20 Summit, World50 Summit, and the World Economic Forum.

Ep. 336: David Dredge on Sharpe Ratio Fallacy, Capturing Upside and Managing Uncertainty Nov 28, 2025

Show notes

David Dredge is the Chief Investment Officer of Convex Strategies, which is an agnostic value investor in volatility. David has over 30 years' experience managing risk across global markets. Prior to launching Convex Strategies, David served as a Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Artradis Fund Management in Singapore, where he was responsible for the fixed income aspects of their volatility strategy. Earlier in his career, David built and ran Asian and Global EM trading businesses for RBS (ABN AMRO Group), Bankers Trust, and Bank of America. He currently sits on the Monetary Authority of Singapore Markets Committee (SFEMC).

Ep. 335: Marc Rubinstein on AI Bubble, Private Credit, Jane Street Rise Nov 20, 2025

Show notes

Marc Rubinstein is author of Net Interest – a leading weekly newsletter on the world of finance. Before this, Marc spent ten years at leading hedge fund Lansdowne Partners, where he was a partner and portfolio manager. This was after he spent time on the sell-side working for Barclays Investment Bank (BZW), Schroders and then Credit Suisse, where he was head of the European banks research team. In this podcast we discuss:.

AI bubble historical analogies

1907 crisis and non-bank growth

Private credit risks

Fraud cycles and market corrections

Jane Street's technological edge

Exchanges commoditise trading

Banks adopt blockchain technology

Fintech challenges incumbents

AI disrupts entry-level finance jobs

Books mentioned: 1929 (Andrew Ross Sorkin), Land Trap (Mike Bird)

Ep. 334: Mark Farrington on Dollar Dominance, China's Gold Play and Crisis Catalysts Nov 14, 2025

Show notes

Mark Farrington is a Global Macro and Geopolitical Strategist and author of the 'Watchtower Reports,' which cover topics ranging from geopolitical risk to Bank of Japan monetary policy to US dollar dynamics. He previously served as Managing Director and Portfolio Manager of the Macro Currency Group at Principal Global Investors, where he worked for fifteen years. Before that, he spent 17 years in the Asia-Pacific region, primarily with Bankers Trust. In this podcast, we discuss:

US Embrace of Industrial Policy and Self-Sufficiency
China's Supply Chain Strategy and Retaliation:
Barriers to RMB Internationalisation
China's Strategic Interest in Gold
Enduring US Dollar Dominance
Geopolitical Alpha and Experiential Learning
Convergence of Allies on US Worldview
Fragility and Vulnerability of Europe
Financial Crisis Catalysts: Inflation and Volatility
The Threat of Systemic Volatility
Books mentioned: Theory of International Politics (Kenneth N. Waltz), The Black Swan (Nassim Nicholas Taleb), The Tipping Point (Malcolm Gladwell), Weaving the Net: Conditional Engagement with China (James Shinn), The Meiji Restoration (W.G. Beasley), The Anarchy: The Relentless Rise of the East India Company (William Dalrymple).

You can follow Mark's work here.

Ep. 333: David Samra on Value Investing, AI Returns, and Bad Management Teams Nov 06, 2025

Show notes

David Samra is a managing director of Artisan Partners – the $180bn global multi-asset investment platform. He is founding partner of the International Value Group, and portfolio manager of the Artisan International Value Fund, which he has managed since the portfolio's inception in September 2002. David has been nominated for the Morningstar International Stock Fund Manager of the Year Award six times. In this podcast, we discuss:

Economic Value Added (EVA) and what makes a good business versus a bad business
Principles of value investing
Finding undervalued securities through screening and cumulative knowledge
Good versus bad management teams
The erosion of competitive moats over time, particularly in consumer brands and technology
Deep dive into Arch Capital as a case study of a successful investment with unique competitive advantages
Shareholder activism as a tool for protecting investments and influencing management
Challenges of managing large amounts of capital and finding opportunities in current markets
AI investment, capital intensity in tech, and concerns about future returns on capital
Views on private markets

Books mentioned: Quest for Value (Stewart), The Intelligent Investor (Graham), The Money Masters (Train), and Frederick and Frederica (Helprin).

You can follow David's work here.

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