Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

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Governor Dr Reza Baqir On Pakistan's FX Reforms, Inflation Fight And Crisis Management Aug 10, 2020

Show notes

In this episode, I talk with Governor Dr Reza Baqir who became the 20th Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan in May 2019. He took the helm as Pakistan embarked on an ambitious reform plan which included an IMF programme. Before that, he was an 18-year veteran of the IMF and previously also worked at the World Bank. He was the Head of the IMF's Office in Egypt and Senior Resident Representative from 2017 to 2019. He has also held positions as IMF Mission Chief for Romania and Bulgaria, Division Chief of the IMF's Debt Policy Division, and Head of the IMF delegation to the Paris Club. His research has been published in top journals of the economics profession, including the Journal of Political Economy and the Quarterly Journal of Economics. In this podcast we discuss:

1. The state of Pakistan's economy and financial markets before COVID hit

2. The reasons for and status of the IMF programme

3. How Pakistan's markets behaved over COVID

4. The transition from a fixed FX regime to market-determined FX regime

5. The path of FX reserves

6. How the State Bank has shifted to an expected inflation target

7. COVID policies outside of cutting rates

8. Longer-term goals of boosting exports, financial inclusion and raising saving rates

9. How global institutions have responded to the COVID crisis versus GFC

10. The role of debt reduction rather than debt rescheduling for EM

John Llewellyn On The Challenge Of Returning To Pre-COVID Output, MMT And Climate Change Aug 04, 2020

Show notes

In this episode, I talk with John Llewellyn. John is the co-founder of Llewellyn Consulting – a leading independent economic advisory firm. Before setting up the firm in 2009, John had various research roles including being the Global Chief Economist at Lehman Brothers, Head of International Forecasting and Policy Analysis at the OECD and teaching at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Cambridge. In this podcast, we discuss:

Forget talks of V-, W-shaped recoveries, it will take years to return to pre-COVID output
COVID adds to challenges of adapting to Fourth Industrial Revolution
Why haven't real wages risen?
Are we mismeasuring growth, investment and productivity?
Why inflation won't rise meaningfully
The pros and cons of MMT
The surprisingly good EU budget/recovery fund
Germany's U-turn on frugality
The transition challenges of Brexit
China's pressure cooker and India's steady release
Climate change – a 5-degree temperature increase changes everything

Edward Misrahi On Decluttering Your Investment Process, EM Crises, And Current Risks Jul 31, 2020

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In this episode, I talk with Edward Misrahi. Edward is the CIO and Founder of Ronit Capital – a leading emerging markets focused hedge fund. He founded the fund in 2013, before that he was a founding partner of Eton Park Capital. Edward started his career at Goldman Sachs – where amongst other things he worked in the famous Risk Arbitrage group and later become a partner. In this podcast we discuss:

The 1994 Mexico crisis and learning how to buy distressed assets
The 1997-1998 Asia/Russia/LTCM crisis and the importance of correlations
The problem with hedging and importance of thinking of gross positions
How to think about the US factor when trading EM markets
The three ingredients of EM crises
Be careful of overweighting politics
Decluttering the investment process
COVID's decoupling of markets and the economy
Market risks still remain
Which EM markets look good

Professor Justin Stebbing On Expecting A COVID Vaccine Before The US Election Jul 24, 2020

Show notes

In this episode, I talk with Professor Justin Stebbing. He is a professor in the Faculty of Medicine at Imperial college London. He initially trained at Oxford, before having a residency at the Johns Hopkins Hospital in the US, then returned to the UK to work at the Royal Marsden, Barts and now Imperial. He specializes in cancers and immunotherapies. He has an extensive research background having published over 550 peer-reviewed papers. He recently published in the Lancet new research on using AI to find drugs to treat COVID-19. In this podcast we discuss:

Current vaccine trials
Absence of COVID-19 reinfections
Why is vaccine development faster than before
Low mutability of COVID-19
Symptoms of COVID-19
Why are minority groups experiencing higher infection rates
Why are elderly being affected the most
Views on the Sweden approach
Why is the US death rate not higher
Policy recommendation

Samm Sacks On The US-China Data War, TikTok And EU Data Sovereignty Jul 17, 2020

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In this episode, I talk with Samm Sacks. She is a Cybersecurity Policy and China Digital Economy Fellow at New America. Her research focuses on emerging information and communication technology (ICT) policies globally, particularly in China. She has worked on Chinese technology policy issues for over a decade, both with the U.S. government and in the private sector. She recently testified before Congress on data security issues between the US and China. In this podcast we discuss:

Why data flows matter
Does the China government have access to all data in China
How Chinese companies push back on data requests
Are US tech firms helping the Chinese government?
The right approach for the US dealing with China tech/data issues
US companies need to manage US data better too
EU is creating global standards
EU is pushing back on US accessing European data
Will US election impact US-China tech war?

Raghuram Rajan On Why MMT, Authoritarianism And Bailouts Won't Work Jul 10, 2020

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This episode is sponsored by SGX – the largest Asian FX exchange.

In this episode, I talk with Raghuram Rajan. He is currently Professor of Finance at Chicago Booth. Before that, he was the 23rd Governor of the Reserve Bank of India between September 2013 and September 2016. Between 2003 and 2006, Dr. Rajan was the Chief Economist and Director of Research at the IMF. He's the author of several books – most recently, the excellent "The Third Pillar: How the State and Markets are leaving Communities Behind" in 2019. In this podcast we discuss:

The sources of economic weakness around COVID
The 5 steps policymakers need to take from relief to reform
The fallacy of MMT and the absence of free lunches
Debt levels matter - for every Japan, there is an Argentina
Should international markets be liberalized?
Dollar's status as reserve currency
China's challenging growth prospects
India's wrong turn
Rise of authoritarianism
The failure to understand fall-out from international treaties
What needs to be done to be optimistic about the future

Chris Crowe On End Of Safe Asset Shortage Jul 02, 2020

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In this episode, I talk with Chris Crowe. Chris is Head of Economic & Flow Research at one of the world's leading hedge funds, Capula Investment Management. He was previously UK Economist at Barclays for two years and prior to that, worked at the IMF for five years. He has also published in top economic journals. In this podcast we discuss:

Why bond yields have trended down in recent decades
The role of safe assets in this downtrend
Likely shifts in the supply and demand of safe assets and impact on bonds
Whether central banks have been captured by fiscal authorities
Whether the Fed will move to yield curve control
Whether Fed or BoE will move to negative rates
US economic outlook
How Brexit and COVID are impacting UK
Germany vs rest in EU

Saeed Amen On Trading Models, Alternative Data And Python Jun 26, 2020

Show notes

In this episode, I talk with Saeed Amen. He is the founder of Cuemacro, which provides investors with quant research and analysis. Over the past fifteen years, Saeed has developed systematic trading strategies at major investment banks, including Lehman Brothers and Nomura. He is also the author of "Trading Thalesians: What the ancient world can teach us about trading today" and is the coauthor of "The Book of Alternative Data", which is due out later this year. He is also a visiting lecturer at Queen Mary University of London. In this podcast we discuss:

Types of trading models, including trend-following and carry
How to design good trading models.
Avoiding data mining
Whether certain strategies are becoming too crowded
Why trend-following models have underperformed
Examples of alpha models like trading month-end flows
Importance of reducing transaction costs
Types of alternative data
How to use news data
The non-technical challenges of using alternative data
Why Python is an important complement to Excel

Lord Mervyn King On The Wrong Use Of Monetary Policy In A Radically Uncertain World Jun 19, 2020

Show notes

In this episode, I talk with Lord Mervyn King. He needs no introduction, except to say he is one of the leading figures in central banking over the past few decades. He served for ten years as the Governor of the Bank of England, which included dealing with the 2008 financial crisis. He's written a number of books including the recent bestseller with co-author John Kay "Radical Uncertainty: Decision-making Beyond the Numbers". Here's what we talk about:

Defining uncertainty - difference between radical uncertainty and black swans
Use of narratives to understand uncertainty
Importance of resilience and preparedness
Why central banks have done too much during COVID
The importance of fiscal and other policies to deal with major economic challenges
His view on negative rates
Should central banks mandates be changed to target financial imbalances and inequality
Could inflation head higher?
Is climate change the only long-term risk to consider?
How his work on radical uncertainty has changes his view of economics

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut On The V-Shaped Recovery And Return Of Inflation Jun 12, 2020

Show notes

In this episode, I talk with Dominique Dwor-Frecaut. She's an accomplished macro thinker that has worked at leading hedge fund Bridgewater, the NY Fed and the IMF. She's also been an early advocate for a V-shaped recovery. We covered lots on the podcast including:

1. Why a V-shaped recovery is likely 2. The panic pandemic 3. How productivity could jump after COVID 4. What could see inflation rise 5. How income inequality is distorting the economy 6. The coming backlash against monopolies 7. Why expansion of central bank balance sheets is not a problem 8. China's new assertiveness 9. The possible demise of the Hong Kong Dollar 10. Germany saves Europe 11. View on equities

You can find most of Dominique's views on macrohive.com.

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