Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Latest Episodes:

Ep. 372: Branko Milanović on China's Rise, the Shift to National Market Liberalism, and Inequality Aug 21, 2026

Show notes

Branko is a research professor at the Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality at the City University of New York. He received his PhD from the University of Belgrade in 1987 and served as lead economist in the World Bank's Research Department for almost 20 years, leaving to write his book on global income inequality, Worlds Apart. He later worked at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, the University of Maryland, Johns Hopkins University, All Souls College in Oxford, and Universidad Carlos III in Madrid. Branko's main area of work is income inequality. He is the author of several books – the most recent one being The Great Global Transformation. In this podcast, we discuss:

The Shift to National Market Liberalism
The Geopolitical and Personal Impact of China
The Rise of "Homoplutia"
The "Folksy Elite" and Meritocratic Ideology
India's Alternative Development Model
Europe's Strategic and Economic Paradox
The Policy Dilemma of the "Elephant Chart"
Elite Multiplication and Youth Anxiety

Ep. 371: Paul Krake on AI's Post-Cyclical World, 10% Unemployment Risks, and the End of Friction Aug 14, 2026

Show notes

Paul Krake is an investor, strategist, and independent researcher with three decades across macroeconomics, policy, and capital markets. In 2011, he founded the research platform View from the Peak after macro roles at Corus Capital, Caxton Associates, Moore Capital, Goldman Sachs, and Macquarie Bank. In this podcast, we discuss:

The "Post-Cyclical" Economy
The Reduction of Economic Friction
Margins vs. Labour Share
The Path to 10% Unemployment
The "Lucas Tree" Multiple Problem
Golden Age of Equity Investing
The "55-Year-Old Man" Advantage
Advice for Graduates: Atoms vs. Bits

Ep. 370: Eric Beinhocker on Market Humanism, the End of Neoliberalism, and Human Flourishing Aug 07, 2026

Show notes

Eric Beinhocker is a professor at the University of Oxford's Blavatnik School of Government and the founder and executive director of the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School (INET Oxford), a research center dedicated to applying innovative economics to major societal challenges. He is also Chairman of the Science Board at the Santa Fe Institute. Prior to his academic career, Beinhocker spent three decades as a technology entrepreneur, venture capitalist, and consultant to Fortune 500 companies. He is the author of The Origin of Wealth: The Radical Remaking of Economics and What It Means for Business and Society.

The Collapse of Neoliberalism
The "Market Humanism" Synthesis
From Homoeconomicus to Homo Sapiens
Markets as Evolutionary Engines
Value as Problem-Solving
The Structural Reality of Inequality
"Middle-Out" vs. "Trickle-Down" Growth
The State as a Market Shaper
Macrocosm: Modelling the Economy with AI
Human Skills in the Age of AI

Ep. 369: Marvin Barth on US Re-Industrialisation, Trump 2.0, and the Localisation Thesis Jul 31, 2026

Show notes

Marvin Barth is the creator of Thematic Markets and Seriously, Marvin?!. Thematic Markets is rigorous, institutional-quality research aimed at market professionals, while Seriously, Marvin?! presents more accessible takes on contrarian musings Marvin doesn't have time to research at Thematic Markets. Both publications benefit from the uniquely broad perspective on the global political economy Marvin has gained from a three-decade career spanning nearly every asset class, academia, central banking, finance ministry, and international institutions. This includes working at Barclays Investment Bank, Citi, the Federal Reserve Board, the U.S. Treasury Department, and the Bank for International Settlements.

The Localisation Thesis
Manufacturing vs. The AI "Bubble"
The Labour Disconnect (Poetry vs. Welding)
Trump 2.0: Preparedness and Instincts
The Iran War and American Exceptionalism
The Fed's "Neutral Rate" Error
The Rise of Kevin Warsh
The Brexit Reality Check
Andy Burnham: The "Low Delta Call Option"

Ep. 368: Richard Clarida on the Warsh Fed, the AI Capex Boom, and Global Economic Fragmentation Jul 24, 2026

Show notes

Dr Clarida is a managing director and global economic advisor at PIMCO. Prior to rejoining PIMCO in 2022, he was the firm's global strategic advisor from 2006 to 2018. He served as Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the U.S. Federal Reserve System from September 2018 to January 2022. Richard is also Professor of Economics and International Affairs at Columbia University. Before joining PIMCO in 2006, he was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy, in which he served as chief economic advisor to two U.S. Treasury Secretaries. Earlier in his career, he was with Credit Suisse and Grossman Asset Management. He has 26 years of investment experience and holds a PhD and a master's degree in economics from Harvard University. He received an undergraduate degree with Bronze Tablet Honors from the University of Illinois. In this podcast, we discuss:

Clarida's Macro Origin Story
Global Economic Resilience
The AI Capex Boom
Labour's Declining Income Share
The "Warsh Fed" Doctrine
Revisiting Forward Guidance
AI's Impact on Productivity and R-star
The Era of Global Fragmentation
Optimism for the Next Generation

You can follow Richard on LinkedIn as well as the PIMCO website.

Ep. 367: Brendan Greeley on The Almighty Dollar, 500 Years of History, and the Eurodollar Market Jul 17, 2026

Show notes

Brendan Greeley has spent twenty years as a journalist, covering economic and monetary policy. He was the US economics editor at the Financial Times and continues to write a regular column there. Before that, he was a staff writer for Bloomberg Businessweek and The Economist, as well as an anchor and correspondent for Bloomberg TV. He has also written for The New York Times, The New York Times Magazine, and The Wall Street Journal Europe, and received a New York Press Club Award for special event reporting. Brendan graduated from Tulane University with honours in German. He is currently completing a PhD in financial history at Princeton University. In this podcast, we discuss:

The "Ancient Dollar's" Bohemian Roots
Skepticism of Monetary Sovereignty
The Constitutional Shift to Private Banking
Nationalising Money via the Civil War
The Primacy of Federal Deposit Insurance
Endogenous Money: How Banks Create the Dollar
The Rise of the Offshore Eurodollar Market
Stablecoins as "Schmanks" (Unregulated Banks)
Career Longevity and the "Turn-Taking" Marriage

Ep. 366: Mikihiro Matsuoka on Japan's Inflation, BOJ Policy Shifts, and the Weak Yen Challenge Jul 10, 2026

Show notes

Matsuoka-San is the Chief Economist of SBI Securities in Japan. Before that, he was the Chief Economist for Japan at Deutsche Bank. Overall, he has been involved in macroeconomic analysis at research institutions and financial institutions for the past 30 years. He is known to be one of the leading Japan economists with unique insights on structural issues. Over the years, he has been highly ranked in numerous surveys, including the Institutional Investor survey. In this podcast, we discuss:

The "Inconvenient Mix" of Inflation
Japan's Real Neutral Interest Rate
The Case for Nominal GDP Targeting
Consumption Tax: Regressive Relief?
Wage Growth Divergence
The Working Hours Trap
Fiscal Dominance and Vulnerability
The Enigma of Yen Weakness
Work-from-Home and Birth Rates
Erosion of the US Dollar's Premium
The AI/Semiconductor "Vertical Jump"
US vs. Japan: Labour Participation Trends

Ep. 365: Stefan Jansen on Agentic AI, ML Workflows, and the Evolution of Machine Learning for Trading Jul 03, 2026

Show notes

Stefan Jansen is the founder and CEO of Applied AI. He advises Fortune 500 companies, investment firms, and startups across industries on data & AI strategy, building data science teams, and developing end-to-end machine learning solutions.

Before his current venture, he was a partner and managing director at an international investment firm, where he built the predictive analytics and investment research practice. He was also a senior executive at a global fintech company with operations in 15 markets, advised Central Banks in emerging markets, and consulted for the World Bank. In this podcast, we discuss:

Defining AI as a Moving Target
The Trading vs. Business Data Science Divide
Synthetic Data and the "Fat Tail" Challenge
Shapley Values: Turning Black Boxes Grey
Agentic AI and Unstructured Data
RAG, Provenance, and the Context Window Debate
The "Alpha Factory" Workflow
Reinforcement Learning (RL) for Execution, Not Prediction
The Critical Role of Human Context
Advice for the AI-Native Job Market

Ep. 364: William Beach on the US Fiscal Precipice, Tax Reform, and AI's Impact on Labour Jun 26, 2026

Show notes

William W. Beach is the Senior Fellow in Economics at the Economic Policy Innovation Center (EPIC) and the Coffin Fellow at the Calvin Coolidge Presidential Foundation. Beach also serves on the UKG Workforce Institute Advisory Board.

Prior to these appointments, Beach was the fifteenth Commissioner of Labor Statistics at the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washington, DC. He took up his duties there on March 28, 2019. Prior to joining BLS, Dr. Beach was vice president for policy research at the Mercatus Center at George Mason University from February of 2016 to March of 2019; and, prior to that served as the Chief Economist for the Senate Budget Committee, Republican Staff, from 2013 through early 2016. In this podcast, we will discuss:

The "Fiscal Precipice"
The "Crowd Out" Effect
Social Drivers of Debt
The "Undemocratic" Tax System
The Social Security Countdown
The Future of "Enhanced Labour"
The Data Response Crisis
Modernising Federal Statistics

Ep. 363: Martin Wolf on AI's Colossal Impact, Central Banking Risks, and the Democratic Recession Jun 19, 2026

Show notes

Martin Wolf is the chief economics commentator at the Financial Times in London. He was awarded the CBE (Commander of the British Empire) in 2000 'for services to financial journalism'. In this podcast, we discuss:

AI: The Ultimate General-Purpose Technology
Market Complacency in the Middle East
Jay Powell's "Superb" but Flawed Legacy
The "Perverse" Risks of Kevin Warsh
The UK's Productivity Puzzle and Brexit
From "Democratic Recession" to Depression
The "Graduate Trap" and Disaffected Youth
Advice for the Next Generation

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