Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Latest Episodes:

Ep. 222: Boris Vladimirov on US Exceptionalism, Europe Risks and China Weakness Jun 28, 2024

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Boris is one of the leading macro thinkers in the market. He is a managing director at Goldman Sachs. Before GS, he was partner and portfolio manager at Rokos Capital Management, Fortress, and Brevan Howard. Boris started his career on the sell side, which included working at UBS and Dresdner. Boris gives his personal opinions and not those of Goldman Sachs or any other organisations he is affiliated with. In this podcast, we discuss late cycle dynamics, concerns about China, impact on Europe, and much more.

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Ep. 221: Vasileios Gkionakis on European Election Fallout, Fed and Fiscal Risks Jun 21, 2024

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Vasileios is Head of Europe Economics and Strategy at Aviva Investors – a £226bn global asset management firm. Based in London, he is responsible for monitoring and analysing macroeconomic developments and markets as well as formulating major asset class views, leading research and strategy in the UK and Europe. Previously, he held senior research roles at Citigroup, Lombard Odier, UniCredit Bank, BofA, Merrill Lynch, and Fulcrum Asset Management. In this podcast, we discuss the UK election impact, UK inflation and BoE cuts, comparing UK and European mortgage rates, and much more.

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Ep. 220: George Selgin on Fed Independence, Poor Operations and Inflation Jun 14, 2024

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George Selgin is a senior fellow and director emeritus of the Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives at the Cato Institute and professor emeritus of economics at the University of Georgia. He is the author of numerous books, including 'The Theory of Free Banking', 'Floored! How a Misguided Fed Experiment Deepened and Prolonged the Great Recession' and 'The Menace of Fiscal QE'. George is one of the founders, with Kevin Dowd and Lawrence H. White, of the Modern Free Banking School, which draws its inspiration from the writings of F. A. Hayek on denationalization of money and choice in currency. In this podcast, we discuss how marine biology helps you understand economics, how the Fed fundamentally changed after the Global Financial Crisis, understanding the Fed's abundant reserves policy, and much more.

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Ep. 219: Jason Furman on Inflation Persistence, Fed Policy and Debt Levels Jun 07, 2024

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Jason Furman is the Aetna Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy jointly at Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) and the Department of Economics at Harvard University. He is also non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Previously, Furman served eight years as a top economic adviser to President Barack Obama, including serving as the 28th Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers from August 2013 to January 2017, acting as both Obama's chief economist and a member of the cabinet. In this podcast we discuss the difference between policymaking and academia, what caused post-COVID inflation, inflation persistence, and much more.

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Ep. 218: Gordon Hanson on US-China Trade War, Immigration and US Elections May 31, 2024

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Gordon Hanson is the Peter Wertheim Professor in Urban Policy at Harvard Kennedy School (HKS). He is also chair of the Social and Urban Policy Area at HKS, a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Gordon's current research addresses the causes and consequences of regional job loss, effectiveness of place-based policies in alleviating regional economic distress, and the labour market consequences of the energy transition. This work is part of the Reimagining the Economy project at HKS, which Gordon co-directs with Dani Rodrik. In this podcast we discuss the rise of China and its impact on the US, whether WTO entry mattered and which sectors played by the rules, comparing the rise of Japan and Asia Tigers, and much more.

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Ep. 217: Mustafa Chowdhury on Surging Wealth, Hidden Bond Buyers and Fed Mistakes May 24, 2024

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Mustafa is a rates guru and member of the research team at Macro Hive. Before this, Mustafa was the Head of Rates, FX, and Derivatives at Voya Investments, where he helped manage $40 billion of assets. Prior to that, he was a Managing Director and Head of US Rates and MBS Strategy at Deutsche Bank. And in the 1990s, he was Co-Head of Asset-Liability Management at Freddie Mac, where he was responsible for managing one of the world's largest fixed income derivatives portfolios and trading desks. In this podcast we discuss misunderstandings around current rates regime, the rise in household wealth, why levels matter more than changes, and much more.

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Ep. 216: Dominique Dwor-Frecaut on Inflation Persistence, Immigration Surge and Trump Effect May 17, 2024

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Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, the IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics. This episode covers the two regime model of inflation, that financial tightening transmission is much weaker, why there is no recession, and much more.

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Ep. 215: Nick Rohatyn on How to Navigate Emerging Markets Investing May 10, 2024

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Nick Rohatyn is Founder and serves as Chief Executive Officer of The Rohatyn Group. TRG is a global asset manager specialising in emerging markets and real assets, with over $8bn in assets under management. Prior to founding TRG in 2002, Nick spent 19-years at J.P. Morgan, including 5 years as a member of J.P. Morgan's executive management team, holding a variety of leadership positions in emerging markets, foreign exchange, commodities, credit markets, and e-commerce functions. In this podcast we discuss pivotal moments for EM from Brady bonds to Global Financial Crisis, the impact of low rates and rise of China on EM, the mportance of local knowledge in EM, and much more.

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Ep. 214: Lindsay Politi on Higher Inflation Regime, Recession Risks and Debt Dynamics May 03, 2024

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Lindsay Politi is Head of Inflation Strategies at One River Asset Management. Lindsay began her career at Wellington Management in Boston where she was head of Global Inflation-linked Investments. In that role she was one of the top TIPS managers by assets, managing over $10 billion in dedicated assets, with a top quintile track record for excess in her peer group. She then joined Tudor Investment Corporation in Greenwich as a discretionary macro investor, translating her inflation strategy onto a macro hedge fund platform. She then joined One River Asset Management in 2018. In this podcast we discuss how sentiment rather than actual inflation trend shifted in Q1, goods vs services inflation, PCE vs CPI inflation, and much more.

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Ep. 213: Bilal Hafeez on Fed Cuts, Dollar Strength and AI Hype Apr 26, 2024

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Bilal is the CEO and Head of Research at Macro Hive. Before that, Bilal was Global Head of International Fixed Income Strategy at Nomura, and Head of Multi-Asset Research and Advisor to the CEO at Deutsche Bank. Bilal started his twenty-year career at JP Morgan. Academically, Bilal was an Honorary Visiting Professor of Finance at Cass Business School and studied Economics at St Johns College, Cambridge. This week's podcast covers: whether the Fed will cut in 2024? What people are ignoring about China, Europe's strategic problem, and much more.

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