If the Big 12 conference were to collapse, it would lead to significant shifts in the landscape of college football, affecting teams, conferences, and the overall structure of the sport. Here are some potential changes and impacts:
Redistribution of Teams
Movement to Other Power Five Conferences: The most competitive and marketable teams in the Big 12, such as Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Kansas, would likely be sought after by other Power Five conferences like the SEC, Big Ten, ACC, and Pac-12. These conferences would look to strengthen their own lineups by adding prominent Big 12 teams.
Strengthening of Other Conferences: The addition of Big 12 teams to other Power Five conferences would bolster their competitiveness and market reach. For example, adding Oklahoma State to the SEC or Kansas to the Big Ten (especially for basketball) would increase those conferences' appeal.
Realignment and Rivalries
New Rivalries: Teams joining new conferences would establish new rivalries, both geographically and competitively. For instance, a Texas-based team moving to the SEC would reignite regional rivalries with Texas A&M.
Loss of Traditional Rivalries: Traditional Big 12 rivalries, such as the Bedlam Series between Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, could be lost or become non-conference games, altering the historical landscape of college football.
Impact on Group of Five Conferences
Expansion Opportunities: Group of Five conferences like the American Athletic Conference (AAC) and Mountain West might absorb some Big 12 teams that are not picked up by Power Five conferences. This would enhance the competitive level of those conferences.
Increased Competitiveness: The influx of former Big 12 teams could make the Group of Five conferences more competitive and possibly position them for better bowl game opportunities and increased media attention.
Financial and Media Implications
Television Contracts: The dissolution of the Big 12 would lead to renegotiation of television contracts, both for the teams joining new conferences and for the conferences absorbing them. This could result in increased revenue for some conferences but a potential financial hit for teams that do not find a Power Five home.
Revenue Distribution: Teams moving to richer conferences like the SEC or Big Ten would benefit from those conferences' lucrative TV deals, enhancing their financial stability and allowing for better facilities, coaching, and recruiting.
Playoff and Bowl Implications
Playoff Dynamics: The College Football Playoff (CFP) landscape would change as new power dynamics emerge. Conferences absorbing strong Big 12 teams might have a better chance of sending multiple teams to the playoffs.
Bowl Games: The bowl game alignments and affiliations would be reshuffled, with new conferences potentially gaining more high-profile bowl slots at the expense of others.
Recruiting and Talent Distribution
Shifts in Recruiting: Recruiting dynamics would shift as players might be drawn to the newly strengthened conferences. The collapse of the Big 12 could lead to changes in recruiting territories and strategies for many programs.
Competitive Balance: The redistribution of Big 12 teams could lead to a temporary imbalance as teams and conferences adjust to the new competitive landscape. Over time, this could either increase parity or create new powerhouses.
Institutional Impacts
- Academic and Institutional Changes: Conference affiliations often influence more than athletics. Academic partnerships, research opportunities, and other institutional collaborations might be affected as schools realign.
In summary, the collapse of the Big 12 would cause a significant reshuffling of college football, with widespread implications for teams, conferences, finances, recruiting, and the overall competitive landscape of the sport.
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