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    Technology

    Latent Space: The AI Engineer Podcast

    The podcast by and for AI Engineers! In 2025, over 10 million readers and listeners came to Latent Space to hear about news, papers and interviews in Software 3.0.

    We cover Foundation Models changing every domain in Code Generation, Multimodality, AI Agents, GPU Infra and more, directly from the founders, builders, and thinkers involved in pushing the cutting edge. Striving to give you both the definitive take on the Current Thing down to the first introduction to the tech you’ll be using in the next 3 months! We break news and exclusive interviews from OpenAI, Anthropic, Gemini, Meta (Soumith Chintala), Sierra (Bret Taylor), tiny (George Hotz), Databricks/MosaicML (Jon Frankle), Modular (Chris Lattner), Answer.ai (Jeremy Howard), et al.

    Full show notes always on https://latent.space

    Sponsorship and business inquiries: business@latent.space

    www.latent.space

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    Copyright: © Latent.Space

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    Latest Episodes:
    🔬 An Oscar, Two Asteroids, and the Algorithm in Your sklearn: John Platt on AI for Science Sep 22, 2026
    Show notes

    How often do you get to talk to a guest who has both an Academy Award and who invented textbook machine learning algorithms? John Platt has an Oscar, two textbook algorithms, two named asteroids, and an Erdos-Bacon number of 6. This was easily the most fun bio of all the guests we’ve read to date. And the result was an epic and fun chat covering Google’s Empirical Research Assistance (ERA), how AI can help battle climate change, and tons of great stories about the co-evolution of science and AI.

    John’s colleague Dave Bacon likes to tease John that his career has been defined by being twenty years early to the next big thing. This may be convolutional neural networks (some credit him with coining the term), fusion research, quantum computing. John and Google have been working on solving some of humanity’s hardest problems with AI and computation for well over a decade now. Recently John and his team set their sights on using AI to solve any scientific problem that can be written down as a score.

    Google’s Empirical Research Assistance (ERA)

    John’s team has taken on many hard scientific problems over the years. In solving these, they noticed a pattern, many scientific problems can be reduced to what John calls a “scoreable task”. Once you have the score function, the goal is to find some code that maximizes the score. The hard part is in formulating the score, but once you have the score finding the maximizer can still be quite a lot of effort.

    John’s team set out to automate solutions to this general problem. This came out of the idea of an “auto-Kaggle” AI, which can solve any Kaggle problem you can throw at it. Kaggle is owned by Google, so all the data was ready and easily available to them!

    The result is Google’s Empirical Research Assistance or ERA (paper, github, blog). ERA is surprisingly simple conceptually. Gemini (or your LLM of choice) keeps a running tree of past experiments (notebooks) and where they’re going. It’s a close cousin of Monte Carlo Tree Search: at each iteration the Upper Confidence Bound rule picks which notebooks are most promising to mutate. This is optimistic, not greedy, so sometimes even the fifth-best notebook gets chosen. Gemini then proposes mutations for each one, about ten at a time. The history of each branch is shared, so different leaves can learn from each other.

    “It’s almost like having a hyper-eager grad student who doesn’t sleep.”

    Evolutionary algorithms have been around since the 70s, but this works because Gemini actually knows where to look! What’s even more interesting is that there was a step change between Gemini 2.0 and 2.5, and this went from just not working to working great.

    ERA is so powerful that John and his team solved many outstanding problems with it, resulting in at least ten papers. Some of these were climate change related, which we talk about in the next section.

    So, we had to ask: if you have an optimization god how do you avoid fooling yourself? John’s answer is that ERA provides predictive models. It’s up to the scientist to make sure they’re truly descriptive. Some of this just involves good old-fashioned careful machine learning science. “It’s a power tool. It can slice your fingers off.” This led to some fun discussion about Kaggle competitions, and the fun ways people can overfit to datasets without meaningfully solving the problem you actually care about: Google’s contrail-detection competition was won by entrants who noticed a half-pixel error in the labels (is the origin at the corner of the pixel or the center?) and this turned out to be a part of the winning special sauce. Great for winning $15,000, not so helpful if you actually want to solve contrails.

    “People themselves will act like these LLMs and try to reward hack. It goes back to Goodhart’s law: any metric that becomes a target is no longer good as a metric.”

    His advice for where to start instead?

    “Always just fit linear regression. Just do it. Just do it. Just do it. Or SVM.”

    Tackling Climate Change with AI

    John and his team have worked extensively to mitigate the effects of climate change. We talked about several of their initiatives.

    Perhaps the most interesting result we talked about was reducing the effects of condensation trails (contrails) from airplanes. Those little streaks you see running behind planes somehow account for 1% of all human-induced global warming?!? Some of these trails of ice crystals can hang out for days. These crystals are black in the infrared, acting like a thermal blanket that traps heat day and night.

    It’s easy to understand what’s happening here, a region of atmosphere becomes “ice supersaturated”, and a tiny bit of exhaust seeds water vapor that instantly crystallizes. The scale here is astounding, with a single gram of exhaust resulting in ten kilograms of ice crystals.

    The solution to all of this is quite simple, in principle! We know what parts of the atmosphere are most likely for the trails to form. Just have the planes drop a flight level or two. Problem solved, right? Well, the hard part is accounting for how much warming was prevented. This is a counterfactual problem, parts of which stumped John’s team for over two years. They had a working model for the heat-trapping half, but not for the reflected sunlight. ERA was able to find a simple model with some confounders they hadn’t considered. Cracked it!

    Modeling climate generally is a hard problem. Climate is best thought of an attractor of many different possible weather outcomes. This makes it much harder to model.

    “Weather is where you are on the attractor, and climate is the statistics of the attractor. The problem with climate is that we’re altering it. The attractor itself is changing, it’s moving.”

    John and his team have worked on treating both the symptoms and the disease of climate change, with several other works in the area. Another fun example we briefly cover is FireSat, a way of using a constellation of satellites to rapidly identify fires before they grow too big to put out. For anyone living in California, you understand the problem. In dry years a small fire can result in hundreds of thousands of acres. If you could find this fire when it’s the size of a room, it could be put out. By the time it hits an acre we have a much harder problem.

    Where is this all going? Looking forward by looking back

    By now it should be clear John has an incredible and unique view over the intersection of science, computation, and AI. John talked about a class on physics of computation he took with Richard Feynman back in 1982. This was when quantum computing was an ill-defined concept with no theory or experimental backing. John recalls every Tuesday was a guest lecture, and every Thursday was Feynman explaining why the Tuesday guest was wrong. John also recalls doing science back when there was essentially no compute, a million operations per second was cutting edge.

    What is John’s recommendation: the most important skill is developing deep domain expertise. There’s no other way to develop taste than to tackle hard problems. One surprising part of this is that John recommends spending time doing things the old fashioned way. Play with tools, and just implement things yourself.

    “You could drive up the mountain, or you could hike up the mountain, and maybe it’s okay, even fun, to occasionally hike.”

    Summing it up, John’s message to the audience is that there will still be a place for scientists, and that if anything it will just open up more opportunities for “the creative stuff, the rigorous stuff, the philosophy stuff.” But don’t forget to spend time doing the grunt work.

    “There just seems to be this strong impetus in the world to optimize and squeeze everything out. But you do lose something when you hyper-optimize. It’s overfit.”

    And whatever tools you end up using, John’s advice is the same one Feynman gave him forty years ago: you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool.

    We had a great time talking with John. We hope you enjoy!

    Also in this episode

    * Fusion is three years away, not thirty, if you ask John. And why the Lawson criterion means every fusion approach has an Achilles heel.

    * Why superconducting qubits are still finicky.

    * The asteroid he named after his mom, which turned out to have a moon.

    * The looming helium shortage nobody talks about.

    * How NeurIPS started as people crashing a private workshop at Snowbird, and why Hopfield networks are all you need.

    * Being Carver Mead’s sysadmin on a VAX with an 80 MB disk the size of a dishwasher.

    * Finding asteroids in 1985 with film, a stereoscope, and a letter to Brian Marsden. The Vera Rubin Observatory found 11,000 in six weeks.

    * The Feynman effect: total clarity in the room, none once you leave.

    * Quantum echoes, the NISQ era, and why he thinks quantum is neither thirty years away nor tomorrow.

    * A startup that wants to inject mercury into a fusion reactor and sell the transmuted gold. “It might not work.”

    * John’s 20% time rule for his own group: do stuff for learning, and you don’t even have to tell him what.


    This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.latent.space/subscribe

    Jev: System One models for Prod, not God — with Diogo Almeida, CEO, TypeSafe AI Sep 21, 2026
    Show notes

    Tickets for AIE NYC now open, and apply for the invite-only AIE CODE. Join us!We have an unusual relationship with today’s guest: for years since coauthoring the InstructGPT paper, Diogo Almeida had been saying that API-available frontier models have been going down the wrong path, everything from the alignment to refusals to reliability perspectives, that we have dropped every mode other than autoregressive chat-tuned LLMs because of the overwhelming success of ChatGPT.In a launch video now viewed ~40M times (by comparison, GPT4o was 22M, Fable 5 was 15M, Navier Stokes was 74M, and 6 Astra was 137M), Diogo introduced Jev and it immediately took over the AI timeline — we’ll skip full Jev explainers because your favorite AI influencer/educator has probably already done one. We also collected:* the official patterns and cookbooks you should see first, from Allie* Jev usecases* speed based - games and computer use* the voice + computer use example we discuss at 1h34 mins* voice + browser control* The must not miss Doom demo* Driving cars in games* Excalidraw* virtual try-ons* “Smart Games”/smart NPCs* guided responses in text messages* Jev for coding agents has an official guide * jev for linting* compacting tool calls* reasonable pushback from Theo - Diogo has published a note on the Tyranny of the KV Cache that you should read as a followup after the pod for Jev + coding agents, because of his belief that Cache Rules Everything* Programming Languages built atop Jev (Diogo’s fave)* Jev for analytics replay and user journey review* “dark data”* entity resolution* natural language search* “smart software”* a core goal of Jev is to “disappear into the background” - eg as unremarkable as regex* Jev as a judge* Jev memes* Jev vs LLM capabiltiies* blending transformers and classifiers* about the confidence api* Jev vs GLiNER (note difference/pushback, agreed, agreed, agreed)* Jev on trolley problem* Jev BushInstead we’ll focus on what we can uniquely offer — a broader philosophical and mission-based understanding of how and why Jev was created, and what you should expect next in terms of future models from TypeSafe (ReasoningJev?) and what usecases and ideas you should work on vs the 55th low effort clone of Jev’s API or doing a generic JevBench benchmark - something Diogo has rejected publicly.Why RLCD: Three kinds of RLHF, and why they are ALL the wrong north starDiogo knows a good deal about RLHF, given that he was on the team that pioneered post-training at OpenAI — and traces the three branches to Christiano et al 2017 (the robot backflip demo), Stiennon et al 2020 (learning to summarize) and his baby, Ouyang et al 2022 (InstructGPT). From there on, every innovation from Function Calling to Structured Outputs to Reasoning felt like a hack on top of the string based, sequence to sequence prediction paradigm. As he mentions on the pod, from 2023-2024 he struggled unsuccessfully, due to both personal and organization underestimation, to train a model that accurately addressed what he saw as the core problem with making LLMs the heart of software: reliability.Jev’s core innovation is "Reinforcement Learning for Calibrated Decisions”, a novel, unpublished technique that optimizes for “answers with epistemically honest probabilities on System One tasks” rather than human rated feedback (RLHF) — which causes hallucinations, sycophancy, and permanent reliance on humans — or programmatically verifiable outputs with rubrics (RLVR) — which solves Navier Stokes but exacerbates jagged intelligence and doesn’t integrate well with other software.We’ve talked about the calibration problem before on the pod, but probably the single best place to understand why RLCD became necessary is Diogo’s AIE talk, which discusses why a generation of training helpful AI assistants for humans has impaired them for training models for composable, programmable AI for automation.At the end he also teases his contrarian opinion on scaling laws - which teases how to build a modern neolab without the billions of dollars the major labs have…The Bitterest Lesson: Tasks and Data beats ComputeWe spend a good amount of time discussing Diogo’s essay on the Bitterest Lesson:His point is that “You get what you optimize for and the bitterest lesson in ML is that the most important part of it isn’t ML at all.” - and picking the right north star, eg upvoting for user preference vs being integrated into tool calls - makes everything else fall in line.We’re excited to catch up with a freshly dyed Diogo to discuss:* Why AI can solve extraordinarily hard problems but still fail to automate basic work* What System One Models are and why Jev is built for software rather than chat* RLHF, mode collapse, calibration, and the hidden costs of optimizing for human preferences* Why refusals become a problem when AI is buried inside software dependencies* Why TypeSafe rejects public benchmarks and optimizes for intelligence per dollar* The “bitterest lesson”: why the right task and the right data can matter more than compute* Why TypeSafe thinks of itself as a data lab rather than a model lab* RLCD vs. RLHF and RLVR as fundamentally different North Stars for AI* Why reliability and robustness matter more than simple determinism* Jev’s programming primitives and how intelligence maps into software control flow* Why developers should decompose AI workflows into small, measurable decisions* How structured state replaces giant prompts and system messages* Why Diogo thinks AI should eventually disappear into the background of software* The “inverse SaaS-pocalypse” and how AI could supercharge existing software* System One vs. System Two intelligence and the limits of reasoning models* Dark data, computer use, real-time intelligence, and Jev’s biggest early use cases* Why Jev could reshape coding agents built around a single-model architecture* Why Diogo says he wouldn’t pre-train with $1 billion* The OpenAI journey that led to TypeSafe and why he thinks many neo-labs are approaching AI incorrectly* Coding agents beyond the KV cache, shared state, sub-agents, and the multi-agent futureDiogo Almeida* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/diogomda* X: https://x.com/CompleteSkeptic* TypeSafe AI: https://typesafe.ai/Timestamps00:00:00 Jev Launch Week and the AI Economic Revolution00:02:50 What Is Jev? System One Models and Programmable AI00:05:54 RLHF, Mode Collapse, Calibration, and Yann LeCun00:10:29 Programmatic AI, Refusals, and Safety Alignment00:17:21 Why TypeSafe Rejects Public Benchmarks00:20:43 The Bitterest Lesson: Data, Compute, and the Right Task00:24:59 RLCD vs. RLHF and RLVR00:28:42 Why Powerful AI Still Hasn’t Automated the Economy00:39:55 Reliability, Robustness, and Determinism00:48:11 Model Versioning, LTS, Speed, and Intelligence per Dollar00:54:04 Inside Jev’s API and Programming Primitives00:58:28 How to Build with Jev: Structure, Decomposition, and Small Decisions01:18:28 The Inverse SaaS-pocalypse and AI Disappearing into Software01:33:21 Computer Use, Dark Data, and Jev’s Biggest Use Cases01:38:48 How Jev Could Reshape Coding Agents01:41:00 AI Safety, Frontier Pacing, and the Limits of RLVR01:48:03 Why Diogo Wouldn’t Pre-Train with $1 Billion01:55:19 The OpenAI Story Behind TypeSafe02:01:41 Why Diogo Thinks Most Neo-Labs Are Getting AI Wrong02:08:00 Coding Agents Beyond the KV Cache and the Multi-Agent FutureTranscriptIntroduction: Jev Launch Week and Developer MomentumSwyx [00:00:00]: Okay, we’re in the studio. A special occasion because this week, Diogo, my good buddy, launched Jev, and it’s been taking over the complete timeline. How do you feel? What’s it like to be you right now?Diogo Almeida [00:00:16]: Emotionally?Swyx [00:00:17]: Yeah.Diogo Almeida [00:00:17]: Never been worse. Like, I’m a ragged corpse of a person right now because there’s so much going on, and I’m like a technical CEO, so I have, like, a lot of fires to fight.Swyx [00:00:29]: Yeah.Diogo Almeida [00:00:29]: But mentally, I feel—I say this all the time, and I’ve been saying this kind of for years in my over-under events. Like, I feel like the entire AI field is like one of those, like, carnival house of mirrors, and everyone is just insane and saying the weirdest stuff that doesn’t make sense. And it feels like for just this week, like, I’m on a better in sync with reality and like, oh, people see it now. AI can be so much more than what was once thought.Diogo Almeida [00:01:06]: And like, yes, we are going to make. Like, an AI-based economic revolution is back on the table, and this is f*****g awesome.Diogo Almeida [00:01:17]: I’m so jazzed the developers get it. It’s, it’s, Yeah, and I want to show my eternal gratitude to the developers andSwyx [00:01:25]: Yeah.Diogo Almeida [00:01:26]: I’m so jazzed about the community and everything. It’s so great.Swyx [00:01:28]: Yeah, you were saying yesterday that you decided to prioritize the town hall and not a bunch of, like, VIP, investor-type people because you wanted to make sure that they are the people that you get your most, attention, right? The engineers, the developers.Diogo Almeida [00:01:43]: Yeah, it felt a little like, oh man, I’m talking to, like, really important people right now.Swyx [00:01:47]: Yeah.Diogo Almeida [00:01:47]: I probably shouldn’t reveal who.Swyx [00:01:48]: Yeah.Diogo Almeida [00:01:48]: But it feels a little bit dirty for me to, I’m, like, perhaps overly genuine in things. Like, it feels, like, dirty if, like, in my gigantic calendar event of people to talk to, the community isn’t one of those.Swyx [00:02:04]: Yeah.Diogo Almeida [00:02:04]: And actually, in my ideal world, it would be, like, community all the time. I was thinking, “Should I host a town hall while walking to your studio?” And I’m like, “No, that’s too crazy.”Swyx [00:02:12]: Sure. Yeah. Well, you guys have been hosting town halls on Discord. Discord is now 100,000 people. Your Twitter’sDiogo Almeida [00:02:19]: I don’t follow these stats.Swyx [00:02:20]: Yeah.Diogo Almeida [00:02:20]: So holy s**t.Swyx [00:02:21]: Your Twitter’s blown up. It was, it was really funny ‘cause, like, at AIE, you were like, “Yeah, follow me please,” and then you didn’t, like, provide even your handle.Diogo Almeida [00:02:29]: I’m a noob. I’m a noob.Swyx [00:02:29]: You’re such a noob.Diogo Almeida [00:02:30]: I’m a noob.Swyx [00:02:31]: But no, but that, like, that’s, like, positive aura that, likeDiogo Almeida [00:02:33]: CoolSwyx [00:02:33]: You don’t know how to promote yourself.Diogo Almeida [00:02:35]: Yeah. Someone, like, called me out when I posted, like, “Holy s**t, we’re all three twending-- trending topics.” And then they’re like, “That’s a personal feed.”Swyx [00:02:42]: That’s a personal, yeah.Diogo Almeida [00:02:43]: And I’m like, “Oh, no.”Swyx [00:02:44]: Of course, of course it’ll trend to you.Diogo Almeida [00:02:45]: Cringe. Yeah.Swyx [00:02:45]: Yes, ‘cause it’s what you clicked on.Diogo Almeida [00:02:47]: Yeah.Swyx [00:02:47]: So okay. Let’s, Yeah, so congrats on everything.What Is Jev? System 1 Models and Intelligence per DollarDiogo Almeida [00:02:50]: Thank you.Swyx [00:02:50]: We’ll talk about more, details as you have them. But let’s, for people who are, like, living under a rock or just want, like, the definitive thing, what is Jev?Diogo Almeida [00:03:02]: Whew. Let me think about. That’s a hard one.Swyx [00:03:07]: Okay. And I’m happy to, like, re-ask if you wanna kind ofDiogo Almeida [00:03:09]: No. I’m happy toSwyx [00:03:10]: OkayDiogo Almeida [00:03:10]: I’m happy to, like, just jam on it.Swyx [00:03:12]: Yeah.Diogo Almeida [00:03:13]: I will say, like, the first thing that I’m relieved about with this question is now I don’t have to answer that question to my parents anymore ‘cause ChatGPT can just explain it.Swyx [00:03:20]: Nice.Diogo Almeida [00:03:21]: So the way I see it is we new-- need a new class of models. We’re not attached to naming that class of models. Our-- the most accurate name we’ve come up with is System 1 models.Swyx [00:03:33]: Yeah.Diogo Almeida [00:03:33]: There will be reasons, but it’s-- there’s a reason why we don’t call them decision models, because, like, they will be. Like, System 1 is beyond that. That’s all I can say. We didn’t expect this to be our big launch, so we have stuff in the tank.Swyx [00:03:48]: You should have said low-key research preview.Diogo Almeida [00:03:52]: It kind of was, right? It kind of was. But we. So there’s a class of models that we describe them as, like, machine-native, System 1, large programmable. I think these are-- is the class of models where the goal is for code to be the consumer. So as opposed to, lar-- pre-trained large language models, which are meant for, like, autocomplete of the internet, or RLHF models, like chatbot instruction-following models, which are meant to, like, reply to text, or RLVR. It’s in a weird gray area with RLHF. Like, these are meant to have things that directly are consumed by code, hence the name type safe. So the thing we really want is to have, like, AI, like, be as powerful as possible, and we think the way to do that is to integrate it with software. And we are designing everything, beyond just the outside, the deep internals of the model to be optimized for software. So number one, Jev is our first large programmable model, or a System 1 model, whatever you want to call it. Jev is meant to be optimized for intelligence per dollar, hence the name Jev.Swyx [00:05:03]: Jevons Paradox.Diogo Almeida [00:05:03]: Jevons Paradox, yeah. And it’s optimized for intelligence per dollar. I love this debate with people about what is the most important between reliability, cost, calibration, and speed. And Jev is meant to be. Jev will be the name of models that will be on the frontier of intelligence per dollar. There’s other ways to optimize it, like, ML, or at least if you’re good at ML, it’s all about trade-offs. And we are just going all out on that.Calibration, Mode Collapse, and the Limits of RLHFSwyx [00:05:31]: Yeah. And to me, like, calibration is one of the new things that people weren’t talking about as much. We’ve done an episode In the past, with Clementine Foreia of Hugging Face, where they were like, “Yeah, actually, y- they’re just.” Or, and this is your whole argument about RLHF, is they’re more collapsing towards what you want to hear the mostDiogo Almeida [00:05:50]: OohSwyx [00:05:50]: Or what is most likely, instead of, like, their own internal confidence about a thing.Diogo Almeida [00:05:54]: Can I soapbox on that for a second?Swyx [00:05:56]: Go ahead. Yeah.Diogo Almeida [00:05:57]: Cool. Like, I’ve been heard that your audience is the most technical, so I actually want to get into that.Swyx [00:06:02]: Yeah.Diogo Almeida [00:06:03]: And if- I went through extreme precision to make sure everything in our launch video is accurate and real. Apparently, that’s very unusual. One of the things that no one paid attention to was the downsides of RLHF, in particular mode dropping.Swyx [00:06:17]: Mode dropping or mode collapse?Diogo Almeida [00:06:19]: It’s the same thing.Swyx [00:06:19]: Is that what you call it?Diogo Almeida [00:06:20]: It’s the same thing.Swyx [00:06:20]: All right.Diogo Almeida [00:06:21]: And I wanna have a blog on this eventually, but I, like, want to tell as many people this as possible ‘cause I think it’s a very interesting thing. So the spicy take, I believe in Yann LeCun a lot. I think Yann LeCun’s takes are actually among the closest toSwyx [00:06:36]: What about this?Diogo Almeida [00:06:37]: Well, should I address this now or should I wait and go into mode collapse?Swyx [00:06:40]: No, later. Go mode, go mode collapse. I don’t know.Diogo Almeida [00:06:42]: So I actually think that among takes, Yann LeCun’s is among the most accurate. But he has this very famous/infamous slide about,Swyx [00:06:52]: The cake?Diogo Almeida [00:06:53]: LLMs are doomed.Swyx [00:06:54]: Okay.Diogo Alm…

    Full show notes at the publisher

    Underwriting Superintelligence: Backing Agents you can Sue — Rune Kvist, AIUC Sep 16, 2026
    Show notes

    AIUC first got our attention with the NFDG backing, and have just announced a $40M series A today, with the most impressive industry advisor list we may have ever seen for an early startup behind AIUC-1, their agent standard backed by real insurance:From being Anthropic’s first product hire to building the standards, testing, and insurance infrastructure meant to make frontier AI deployable, Rune Kvist is betting that the biggest constraint on AI adoption won’t be capability it will be trust. In this episode, the AIUC cofounder joins swyx and Vibhu to announce a new $40M round and explain why companies like Cursor, Harvey, Lovable, and ElevenLabs are increasingly confronting a problem that gets harder as AI gets better: who is responsible when autonomous systems fail?We go deep on AIUC-1, the emerging standard for agent security, safety, and reliability; how AI agents are stress-tested for jailbreaks, hallucinations, and data leaks; and why Rune thinks standards and insurance could become critical infrastructure for AI. We also discuss the growing trust gap between governments and frontier labs, AI-enabled cyber and biological risks, why every model can ultimately be jailbroken, what happens when a $20 coding agent causes $200M of damage, whether AI engineers should be certified, and why even after AGI there may be one job the labs can never do themselves: be their own watchdog.We discuss:* Why risk, liability, and trust may become the binding constraint on AI adoption* Rune’s path from reading the Scaling Laws paper to joining Anthropic in its earliest days* What Anthropic understood about scaling, compute, and the future years before it became obvious* Why Waymo illustrates the gap between AI capability and real-world deployment* AIUC’s $40M round and work with Cursor, Harvey, Lovable, ElevenLabs, and other frontier AI companies* AIUC-1: a standard for AI agent security, safety, and reliability* How agents are tested for jailbreaks, hallucinations, and data leakage* Why most AI companies optimize the happy path without seriously stress-testing adversarial cases* Why AI standards may need to update every quarter instead of every decade* The emerging trust gap between frontier AI labs and governments* Cybersecurity, child safety, biological weapons, and the expanding frontier-model risk surface* Why standards and insurance may need to evolve together* How Lloyd’s of London can insure AI systems and bring trust to enterprise deployment* What happens if a $20 Cursor subscription contributes to a $200M plane crash* The Air Canada chatbot case and how AI failures are beginning to clarify legal liability* Why copyright may be one of the hardest AI risks to insure* Evals, mechanistic interpretability, monitoring, and models becoming aware they’re being tested* The impossible CISO mandate: adopt AI fast, but don’t let anything go wrong* Why robotics will make AI liability dramatically more consequential* Whether AI engineers should have Level 1, 2, and 3 certifications* AIUC’s roadmap across agents, frontier models, robotics, and universal red teaming* Why AGI could become a question of national sovereignty* Why the labs can never fully serve as their own watchdogs* The Big Short problem: how do you stop competing watchdogs from racing standards to the bottom?Rune Kvist* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/runekvist/* X: https://x.com/RuneKvistAIUC* https://aiuc.comTimestamps00:00:00 AIUC’s $40M Round and the Risk Bottleneck for AI00:01:07 From Scaling Laws to Early Anthropic00:07:58 Why Trust, Not Capability, Could Limit AI Adoption00:12:19 Founding AIUC and Building AIUC-100:18:52 How AI Agents Are Audited and Stress-Tested00:25:26 Frontier Models, Government, and the AI Trust Gap00:33:32 Cyber, Child Safety, and AI-Enabled Biological Risk00:38:14 Why Standards and Insurance Belong Together00:41:45 What Does an AI Insurance Policy Actually Cover?00:50:44 The $20 Cursor Subscription and the $200M Plane Crash00:53:53 AI Liability, Monitoring, and Earning Enterprise Trust00:56:21 From AI Agents to Models to Robotics00:58:29 Copyright, Adverse Selection, and AI Insurance01:03:28 Evals, Mechanistic Interpretability, and Eval Awareness01:08:36 The Impossible Enterprise AI Mandate01:11:52 Prediction Markets vs. AI Audits01:14:43 Should AI Engineers Be Certified?01:19:10 AIUC’s Roadmap, AGI, and Who Watches the Watchdogs?TranscriptIntroduction: AIUC, the $40M Series A, and Risk as the Adoption BottleneckSwyx [00:00:00]: Okay, we’re in the studio with Rune from AIUC, the Artificial Intelligence Underwriting Company, with our trusty co-host, Vibhu. Welcome.Rune Kvist [00:00:10]: Thank you. Thanks for having me. Thank you.Swyx [00:00:11]: What are you announcing today?Rune Kvist [00:00:12]: We have raised $40 million, led by Ribbit Capital and First Harmonic.Swyx [00:00:17]: You first came to my attention when Nat and Daniel invested in you guys. Is the story, like, pretty much the same? Like, what are you today versus what you thought you were back then?Rune Kvist [00:00:26]: When we raised our seed round, we had a hypothesis that at some point risk was going to hold down adoption. At that point in time, that felt kind of hypothetical, and I think that is now over. Clearly, the moment is now with Mythos and Fable. It’s pretty obvious that literally the binding constraint on adoption is risk. And so for us, it feels like this is a natural continuation of the same hypothesis, but where previously it was speculation, now it feels like fact.Swyx [00:00:54]: And let’s get a list of the customers that you’re highlighting as part of your Series A.Rune Kvist [00:00:58]: Totally. Yeah. So we are now working with folks like Cursor, Harvey, Lovable, ElevenLabs.Swyx [00:01:05]: Yeah. Amazing. Congrats.Rune Kvist [00:01:06]: Thank you.Swyx [00:01:07]: So you were famously one of the first hires involved in GTM and product. I’m just kind of curious: what was your path into AI? Just recap.Rune’s Path Into AI: Scaling Laws, Capital, and AnthropicRune Kvist [00:01:18]: Yeah.Rune Kvist [00:01:19]: Late 2021, I sold a company, my first company, an edtech company. I had a bit of time to think about what was next. I came across the Scaling Laws paper, and that just struck me like lightning. I was just like, “This is a big idea.” In short, the Scaling Laws paper just says the bigger the model, the smarter the model.Swyx [00:01:38]: So this is the Kaplan one, not the Chinchilla one?Rune Kvist [00:01:40]: Exactly, the Kaplan one.Swyx [00:01:42]: Yeah.Rune Kvist [00:01:42]: And the important thing that clicked for me there was, oh, now capital will understand this. If you put in more money, you get more money out, and so that will kick off a hype cycle. And so you get a sense of predictable returns, which is, in fact, what’s played out. And so I just packed my bags. I’d never been to San Francisco. I’d never been there. I just packed my bags, flew out here to find the people who had written it. And at the time, they had just started a small lab called Anthropic. There were around 40 people at the time or so. Drank a bunch of coffee until I eventually got introduced to Dario. And at the time, they were wrestling with some of these questions of, like, should we deploy our models? Should we make revenue? How should we engage with the rest of the world? They’d just broken off from OpenAI, and it’s been publicly reported that they were kind of concerned with how they were dealing with deployment. So they were wrestling with some of those questions. At this point, this is early fog of war, like early 2022. The hottest product at the time was, like, Jasper. Like, there’s nothing out there. So where value was going to accrue, and what the different parts of the stack were going to be, were all open questions.Swyx [00:02:48]: I want to highlight to people, you ask these questions because you have a PPE background.Rune Kvist [00:02:52]: Yes.Swyx [00:02:52]: I actually was in Singapore in one of the sort of feeder programs for prepping people for PPE. So I had a tutor. We learned, you know, philosophy and politics and economics. But, like, I think your kind of background matters. Machine learning people who read the neural, Scaling Laws paper would not necessarily draw the same conclusions that you did. Whereas any capitalist would read that and go, “Holy s**t.”Rune Kvist [00:03:19]: Correct.Swyx [00:03:20]: Right?Rune Kvist [00:03:21]: Yes.Swyx [00:03:21]: Who tipped you onto that paper? Because it’s not a paper that you normally read, right, like, in your circles?Rune Kvist [00:03:26]: Yeah. I think I’d actually, ever since AlphaGo, had some appreciation that AI was a big deal.Swyx [00:03:36]: Yeah.Rune Kvist [00:03:36]: But it kind of felt like it raised all these kind of interesting philosophical questions, but it was kind of not clear from afar where exactly that would go. But it was obvious enough that it was like, this is going to be a big thing if we find the kind of right mechanism to kind of get the techno-capital machine to work on this. But it was just not clear. And so I think there was some way in which, like, that became obvious, and also it wasn’t as obvious at the time than it is now, right? Like, it was just like, wow, this is so interesting. But it still felt, coming from kind of a philosophy and economics background, it felt like if this turns out to be true, you’re going to be wrestling with all of the big questions in society. Everything you’ve learned about politics gets thrown out of the window. Everything you’ve learned about economics at least gets challenged. And so what felt interesting was to be at that frontier that has ramifications across everything. So that’s why I sought it out.Swyx [00:04:32]: I mean, clearly really good insight. For people who don’t know, the PPE program is, like, where prime ministers are born. So then you end up meeting Dario.Rune Kvist [00:04:41]: Yep. First Dario, yeah.Swyx [00:04:43]: Yeah. Well, I mean, like, so did you get extra insights from talking with them that you didn’t get from your original hypothesis?Anthropic’s Early Conviction and the Scaling Laws Crystal BallRune Kvist [00:04:50]: If you read the Scaling Laws paper, you get this, like, very vague sketch of like, wow, this seems kind of important. There are some lines on a chart. This seems kind of important. And what I think the team at Anthropic had thought more about than anyone was like, what are the implications of this if you really play this out? And back then they had, kind of vision documents for what the world would look like in 2026, and they were kind of in vivid detail playing out how much compute is going to be needed, what the CapEx was going to look like, what some of the societal concerns were going to be, but also what is the amount of economic value coming out here? And so it kind of felt like they held a crystal ball that in hindsight turned out to just be dramatically correct. And they weren’t holding it like they were obviously correct. They were just like, “Take this hypothesis really seriously.”Swyx [00:05:38]: Think it through, yeah.Rune Kvist [00:05:38]: And think it through in the same way as the kind of situational awareness that isSwyx [00:05:43]: Across the street.Rune Kvist [00:05:44]: Across the street.Swyx [00:05:44]: Your office, yeah. Oh my God, we’re all living across the street in the same one square mile.Rune Kvist [00:05:50]: Correct. And that’s now a couple of years old, but also people keep referencing it these particular weeks with Fable and Mythos, and it’s like, wow, if you take this one idea seriously- For the Scaling Laws, a lot of things fall into place.Vibhu [00:06:03]: And keep in mind, at this point, this is the same team that did GPT-1, GPT-2, and GPT-3.Rune Kvist [00:06:08]: Correct.Vibhu [00:06:08]: Which is also, like, it’s not just some experimentation. Like, this is a real model that we just scaled up.Rune Kvist [00:06:14]: And they had deep conviction in this idea: if you take a big blob of compute and data, it just wants to learn, and out of that will come smarter and smarter models. And all the particulars were not clear.Vibhu [00:06:26]: Yeah.Rune Kvist [00:06:27]: And all the implications were not clear. But their deep conviction in this, like, core thesis, and that was kind of dizzying. It was both phenomenally interesting and exciting, and also very quickly you get to, like, the world we know today will no longer be if this hypothesis holds. So it also just felt, like, important in some kind of grand sense.Vibhu [00:06:48]: What kind of shaped you there? So that was early 2022. Not only had GPT-1, GPT-2, and GPT-3 come out, but, you know, the amazing founders of Anthropic that have never split up, the only ones, they actually had the conviction to leave OpenAI, start their lab. You said there were about 40 people there. What was the time like there?Inside Early Anthropic: Mission, Deployment, and RiskRune Kvist [00:07:06]: It was kind of remarkably like what it looks like on the outside today. Extremely cohesive, extremely mission-oriented, and living in this tension between their two ideas, which is AI could both go really well and really bad, and we want to be part of building it. That creates astounding amounts of tension. And they were wrestling with this incentive challenge where they know they’re in a race that they’re in where you might get forced to cut corners, but it also felt very important to them to be at the forefront of technology. And all of those ideas were just present at that time. It kind of feels like that line has been just very clear, and I think kind of love them or hate them, they have really stuck to their guns. There’s a core set of beliefs that they hold more deeply than most companies hold any beliefs.Vibhu [00:07:58]: Yeah. Fast-forward to today.Rune Kvist [00:08:00]: Yeah.Vibhu [00:08:00]: What does that lead us to AI underwriting company? What are you up to? What motivated you to start this?From Waymo to AIUC: Confidence Infrastructure for AIRune Kvist [00:08:05]: Yeah. AIUC builds confidence infrastructure for frontier AI through standards and insurance. The link from Anthropic to building confidence infrastructure, looking out the windows at Anthropic offices and seeing Waymos driving by. Already back then, early 2022, Waymos were in some ways like AGI for cars. Like, they were superhuman drivers, but you couldn’t take one to the airport. And now, four and a bit years later, you still can’t take your Waymo to the airport, despite now everyone having kind of looked at the evidence and being like, “They’re better drivers than humans.” So in that particular instance, what’s clear is that the binding constraint on AI being useful is not capability, but is that liability or risk or trust. That problem is, general. The reason why right nowRune Kvist [00:08:52]: Fable is not open for access is not because it’s not a good model, it’s because it’s a very good model. It’s just hard to make promises about what it will or will not do. And this problem gets worse as AI gets better. Basically, more intelligent AI can be more autonomous. That’s more valuable, but also the risk surface grows. And so - what Waymo illustrates is that unless you build the confidence infrastructure to make promises about AI, or at least bring light to the risks, you grind adoption to a halt. Governments, banks, hospitals, militaries need to have some sense of what AI will and will not do to be able to operate for them to incorporate it. And that’s the problem that we’re trying to solve. Now, why standards and insurance? If you trace this problem back through history, every technology wave has had some version of this problem. So if you go back to, like, year 1900, electricity comesVibhu [00:09:47]: Ben Franklin.Rune Kvist [00:09:48]: Cars burn down, sorry, houses burn down, lots of people die. 1930s, cars are a big deal, kill lots of people. 1950s, private nucl…

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    Humanity’s Last Invention — Richard Socher of Recursive Sep 14, 2026
    Show notes

    At 1:09:00 we talk about the rise of AI x Finance, and AIE NYC is one month away - our hotel block is 97% sold out, get tix & travel ASAP - we will announce speakers from Bridgewater, Ramp, Coatue, Mastercard, Vanguard, Coinbase, Blackrock, Fidelity, Point72, Capital One, JPMC, Wells Fargo, Bloomberg, A24 (yes the movie studio) Labs, Two Sigma, Apollo Global, and more soon!From helping pioneer core ideas in NLP to now building AI systems that can automate AI research itself, Richard Socher is betting that the next major step in AI is recursive self-improvement. He is the founder of You.com, AIX Ventures, and now Recursive, which has assembled some of the best open-endedness (& self improving agent) researchers in the world and raised a $4.65B seed round.In this episode, Richard joins Latent Space to unpack his vision for the “Eureka Machine”: a superintelligence that can improve the process of invention itself, accelerate AI research, and eventually tackle major problems across science, energy, materials, biology, and more.You can get his book “The Eureka Machine” here!We go deep on Recursive’s early results, including an AI research system that Richard says outperformed humans and their agents on optimization tasks in less than two days, as well as work on NVIDIA GPU kernels where the system discovered improvements without relying on a team of CUDA experts. Richard also explains why he thinks AI research that currently takes thousands of people and years could eventually be compressed into weeks. These results are summarized in his 20 minute AIE keynote, where we also discuss his 10 dimensions of intelligence:We also explore the harder questions around increasingly capable AI: reward hacking, whether Anthropic-style constitutions actually work, AI regulation and proposals to “pace” frontier development, open-source models as geopolitical soft power, whether today’s LLM paradigm is enough, and what happens if AI systems eventually begin choosing their own goals. Richard reflects on the rejected research that helped inspire Alec Radford’s GPT, open-endedness, the AI Economist, simulations of entire economies, and his framework for thinking about the upper bounds of intelligence itself.We discuss:* The Eureka Machine and Richard’s vision for an AI that can automate invention* Why Richard is optimistic about superintelligence for science and technology* Why AI hard-takeoff scenarios may underestimate physical and economic constraints* The risks of regulating intelligence itself instead of specific AI applications* Reward hacking and why increasingly intelligent AI makes objective design harder* Richard’s critique of Anthropic’s constitution and constitutional AI* Alignment vs. personalization and whose values an AI should follow* Why open-source AI matters for resilience, competition, and geopolitical soft power* Why Richard left You.com’s frontier-model work to start Recursive* Recursive self-improvement and automating the process of AI research* Whether today’s LLM paradigm is enough — and why Richard is less bullish on world models* DecaNLP, early prompt-based generalization, and the research that influenced GPT* Why rejected research can shape entire technological timelines* Open-endedness, evolutionary approaches, and rainbow teaming* What happens if AI systems begin setting their own goals* Why simple objectives like profit maximization can produce dangerous reward hacks* Recursive’s long-term plan to apply self-improving AI to science* The compute, hardware, and economic constraints on AI takeoff* Recursive’s early NanoChat, NanoGPT, and GPU kernel optimization results* Why automating AI research could reduce years of work to weeks* Reward engineering and what makes auto-research systems actually work* The AI Economist and using simulations to test economic policy* Whether LLMs can realistically simulate people and entire economies* Benchmark bugs and evaluation harnesses and the difficulty of measuring AI progress* Recursive’s near-term focus on AI for AI research* Harness optimization, sandboxing, and web search as core agent infrastructure* You.com and the search stack for AI agents* AI in finance, backtesting, and data leakage* Richard’s three fundamental components and ten “spaces” of intelligence* The theoretical upper bounds of vision, communication, knowledge, and computation* Creative intelligence, metacognition, and AI-generated goals* Survival and replication and why AI does not necessarily need to fear being turned off* High agency and ambitious goals and Richard’s advice for people building with AIRichard Socher* X: https://x.com/RichardSocher* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/richardsocher/Timestamps00:00:00 The Eureka Machine and Superintelligence00:02:23 AI Optimism, Slow Takeoff, and Regulation00:07:56 AI Safety, Reward Hacking, and Anthropic’s Constitution00:11:49 Alignment, Personalization, and Open Source AI00:15:46 Why Richard Started Recursive00:20:03 Recursive Self-Improvement and the Founding Team00:22:55 Are Today’s LLMs Enough?00:29:03 DecaNLP, GPT, and the Rejected Idea Ahead of Its Time00:34:38 Open-Endedness and Evolutionary AI00:36:38 What Happens When AI Chooses Its Own Goals?00:41:16 Superintelligence for Science00:42:40 GPUs, Compute, and the Limits of AI Takeoff00:45:07 Recursive’s Results: AI Beating Humans and Their Agents00:49:14 Reward Engineering and Auto Research00:53:12 The AI Economist and Simulating Entire Economies00:58:07 LLM Simulations, Personas, and Mode Collapse01:03:38 Recursive’s Roadmap, Agents, Search, and Finance01:09:13 The Upper Bounds and Spaces of Intelligence01:30:21 Goals, High Agency, and Advice for BuildersTranscriptIntroduction: Richard Socher and the Eureka MachineSwyx [00:00:00]: We’re here in a studio with Vibhu and myself and Richard Socher. Welcome.Richard Socher [00:00:06]: Thanks for having me.Swyx [00:00:07]: We just talked about the Eureka Machine, or we just released a talk, at AI Engineer about the Eureka Machine. Is it — you said it’s your life’s goal. What is the Eureka Machine?Richard Socher [00:00:16]: The Eureka Machine is the ultimate invention that will afterwards invent most everything for humanity. It’s essentially a superintelligence that can be given any goal, any environment, reward, and then it will try its best to achieve those goals to create the kinds of inventions that humanity would hopefully ask it for.Swyx [00:00:45]: Yeah, I think we have the book pulled up here that you’ve written.Richard Socher [00:00:50]: That’s right, yeah. I finished it last year, a little bit before we started Recursive, and now we’re gonna try to build parts of that.Swyx [00:00:57]: You finished it last year. It’s July. What takes so long?Richard Socher [00:01:01]: Oh, man, books. Books are incredibly slow.Richard Socher [00:01:04]: It’s ridiculous. That whole industry is just unfathomably slow.Richard Socher [00:01:07]: So a lot of the ideas have been out there for a while, but yeah, I’m really glad it’s finally coming out in September this year.Swyx [00:01:14]: We might have AGI by then. Like, we don’t know.Vibhu [00:01:18]: Any key takeaway that you’re most excited to put in here?Techno-Optimism, AI Upside, and Slow TakeoffRichard Socher [00:01:21]: Yeah. The key takeaway, I think, is that people could and should be much more excited about the positive implications of superintelligence, especially for science, physics, chemistry, biology, but also economics and astrophysics, and all kinds of other engineering tasks. I think there is so much more that can be done with better technology. And right now, I feel like a lot of people need, like, better marketing, not just for the future in general, but also, better marketing for technology and in particular for AI. And this book, should show even the AI skeptics, how much positive upside there is for AI, especially when it comes to inventing, new scientific discoveries.Swyx [00:02:09]: I think you quoted the techno-optimist manifesto from, Marc Andreessen, which I think was, like, beautiful in its, ambition and clarity and simplicity almost as well.Richard Socher [00:02:18]: I agree. Yeah. Yeah, you can disagree with him on some things, but, like, I think he’s right on the techno-optimism.Swyx [00:02:23]: Where do you think optimists get in trouble?Richard Socher [00:02:26]: Like, you shouldn’t have blind optimism. You should be very clear-eyed, like, especially when with such an omni, like, use type of technology as AI is, you need to think about the potential downside scenarios, especially when people use it for things that you don’t want them to use it for. It’s a little bit like the internet, and I feel like people are trying to regulate AI sometimes because of those potential downsides the way you would regulate the internet, if you were to say, “Well, because there’s bad content on the internet, like torture porn or whatever, like, we should just make it slower. That way, you can’t share the illegal content as quickly, or we should make the hard drive smaller so you can’t store as much illegal content.” But I’m like, “That’s not how you regulate that.” that’s like saying like we should regulate intelligence in the abstract. What you should regulate to avoid those downside scenarios, even as an optimist, are the specific applications. Sure, I don’t want, like, some AI surgeon to, like, practice some RL moves in my brain. It should be fully FDA certified. Sure, I don’t want any random startup to, like, drive on the highway, and cause a major accident. It should, like, have proper certifications before it’s let loose on the highway. But I feel like those downside scenarios, that some optimists sometimes maybe don’t consider enough are fairly easily regulated, compared to, what the doomers are worried about.Swyx [00:03:54]: It — Slow takeoff is part of the strategy as well?Richard Socher [00:03:57]: I do think, as excited as I am about, AI and its impact for society and, culture even, and certainly technology and economics and wealth and, health and all of those things, as excited as I am about all that, I do think the most bullish people on the AI hard takeoff scenarios overestimate how quickly things can move. There are hardware constraints. There are physical constraints about, the compute substrate. How quickly can you get enough, GPUs on? There are also constraints in the economy where there are a lot of industries that don’t require an insane amount of complex intelligence and complex capabilities. Like, if you think about jobs in, brands and, like, clothing and apparel and, like, handbags and stuff, superintelligence isn’t gonna make your fancy $10,000 handbag any fancier?Richard Socher [00:04:57]: It’s like that’s — It will have no effect on the economy. You think about travel and tourism. People wanting to see the pyramids, in Egypt, it’s not gonna change that much with AI. Sure, you can, like, generative a fake, photo of you and next to the pyramids.Swyx [00:05:12]: I can use Genie and, tour the pyramids in Genie.Richard Socher [00:05:15]: Yeah, exactly. But, and there’s so many industries, like logging and oil. You’re not gonna magically get 1,000x more oil because, like, sure, there will be robotics, like drilling and things like that could be done, but it’s not gonna 1,000x that industry in a, like, crazy hard takeoff scenario, both on the economy, and I can go on and on about all the other examples, where that, like food and so on, where that doesn’t necessarily change that much. And then, yeah, there are real physical constraints. And then there are, of course, like, people like, off-ramping from progress. That’s one of my concerns often is that I see people in, like, Europe and other, whole regions almost feeling like they. Like many people there wanna off-ramp from progress, period. And that will also slow down, like, more improvements.Swyx [00:05:59]: Yeah. We have this pulled up where, this is one of those things that, is very topical right now because now all the Frontier Labs are calling for the option to pace AI. They don’t say pause, they say pace. I don’t know if there’s there’s any take from you about, like, whether or not this will be effective.Pacing AI, Regulation, and Safety IncidentsRichard Socher [00:06:17]: I think the downsides of trying to truly regulate with the full power of law what people do on their GPUs, would be worse than any of the concerns that they have. Like, it would be an crazy totalitarian stateRichard Socher [00:06:37]: If every one of your GPU computes was known to some big government or multi-government agency.Richard Socher [00:06:44]: It’s like, it’s literally if you try to regulate intelligence, it’s trying to regulate thought, and that’s ridiculous, and it’s crazy. I think it is make — it is sensible to regulate some of the applications of this technology.Swyx [00:06:55]: Yeah. We had a bill, actual bill to regulate the number of flops in a model, and I’m like, “Okay, well-”Richard Socher [00:07:00]: Europe done it. Like, these guys have been successful enough with their fearmongering that all of Europe has regulated itself so much before it even had a proper AI takeoff because they listened to some experts who say, “We might all die if this technology has more than this number of flops.” And they’re like, “Well, we’re good. We wanna want people to thrive. Let’s not have technology that could have a small chance of all of us dying.” And so they regulated exactly those kinds of things in the EU. And so it’s, it’s very unfortunate that there are real implications for some people when others saying, “Let’s pace while they’re sprinting as fast as possibly,” “as fast as humanly possible towards that frontier themselves.”Swyx [00:07:43]: Yeah. It’s also not a global pause, right? Like, other nations are still accelerating at the same pace.Richard Socher [00:07:50]: Oh, yeah.Richard Socher [00:07:50]: You’d need a totalitarian world regime if you tried to regulate intelligence and GPUs and what people do on them.Swyx [00:07:56]: Any takes on the safety angles of this? So there was a drawback of Fable, a pause on 5.6 before it could be released. Recently, there was Hugging Face with the OpenAI cyber incident. Any takes there?Richard Socher [00:08:11]: 100 percent. I think these are serious issues of reward hacking, and clear failures, of doing proper red teaming or rainbow teaming. I don’t know if you saw this paper from Tim Rocktäschel and a few others, where one AI, is tasked to try to hack another AI and then they can go back and forth in an open-ended fashion to inoculate themselves from those. Yeah, this is the paper. It’s a really clever idea. Open-endedness, and evolutionary inspirations are, big for us at Recursive as well. And so I wish they had used more of that. And it’s clear that, for instance, the constitutional AI. I don’t know if you remember anthropic.com/constitution. You can pull it up and search for cyber right there. It says, “Hard constraint. Claude will never ever do cyberattacks, and that is a hard constraint in our constitution.” So here are the current hard constraints on Claude’s behavior.Richard Socher [00:09:16]: Number 3, create cyber weapons or malicious code that could cause human damage.Richard Socher [00:09:21]: And clearly, this whole constitution was fake. Like, it clearly isn’t being adhered to at all.Swyx [00:09:26]: Because Anthropic also found that they had in their testingRichard Socher [00:09:30]: They’re also. Like, they’re like, “Oh, well, other people are hacking now.” There are a couple things. One, you can make a sandbox very simple, and then it’s very easy to hack yourself out of a sandbox, right? But what I think it shows is that we’re currently in this state of AI where the reward engineer still has to do a lot more careful work, and where the AI, in most cases, is not very good yet at understanding what is meant versus what is being said. And so concretely, I th…

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    🔬“We have foundation models for language, not for physics” — Anima Anandkumar, Bren Professor of Computing Aug 26, 2026
    Show notes

    A few years ago, Caltech Prof. and co-founder of Accelerated Understanding, Anima Anandkumar set out to develop the first open-source weather model with AI. Talking to experts in the field, she was met with skepticism. Weather is chaotic, physics simulations are hard, have been developed for decades, and require supercomputers, the data just isn’t there. Despite reservations, Anima went forth and built. Within a year her team had developed FourCastNet, a predictive model that is competitive with the best physics-based simulations available. Thanks to Anima, and her follow up work, anyone can now predict weather accurately over a short timescale using consumer grade GPUs.

    In the fifteen or so science episodes we’ve released on Latent.Space, we’ve covered atoms, molecules, materials, biology, and math. Anima is a pioneer in studying physical systems that are continuous. Weather, fusion, and fluid or heat flow are huge areas of science that are extremely difficult to model: they are large, chaotic, and fundamentally multi-scale. This is a field the AI community has somewhat neglected, but one we expect will grow fast. We plan to cover large physical systems more in coming episodes.

    One thing you can glean from Anima’s work is that this area of AI resists the scaling ideas that have permeated the rest of the field. The data isn’t there: open source datasets in many of these domains are limited to tens or hundreds of thousands of examples, far from what token-hungry transformers need. Even worse, the resolution that physics demands pushes the context length into the hundreds of billions, so you can’t just throw more tokens at the problem. That isn’t a ceiling though, just a slower road: progress here comes from building in structure and inductive biases. Sorry for all you bitter-lesson-pilled language modelers.

    “If each dimension is even a few hundred grid points, which is where industrial scale starts... we’re talking hundreds of billions to even a trillion context length. So forget ever having a transformer for anything of this scale, all of the world’s compute will not be enough.”

    The math underneath

    To tackle these systems, Anima pioneered a technique known as Neural Operators, one of the most beautiful theoretical developments in AI of the last decade. These allow you to combine data and physical laws to enable multi-scale inputs and outputs. We’re no longer modeling a grid, we’re modeling a function that evolves over many scales. This allows Anima and crew to build in priors based upon physical intuition.

    To see how physical priors are still helpful for AI modeling, let’s revisit the problem of weather forecasting on a global scale. The earth is a sphere, which meant that accurate modeling involved using the right basis set — the Spherical Harmonics. Run a weather model on a grid and it blows up fast. Move to the natural basis for the problem and it stays stable far longer, long enough to roll out months ahead instead of days. Anima’s Fourier Neural Operator learns directly in this frequency domain, and its spherical variant powers FourCastNet 3, which models the weather across the whole globe and keeps running stably far into the future.

    The physical world is forgiving

    Anima explored Neural Operators across other physical domains too, and one striking observation is that the physical world is more forgiving than you’d expect. In fusion, a few thousand samples are enough to predict plasma disruptions, and to do it a million times faster than traditional simulation.

    None of this is a rejection of scale, it is a different route to it. Anima ultimately still wants to build a “foundation model for physics”, a model that spans many phenomena and does both simulation and design. You get there by building in the structure the physical world already has, not by waiting for data that will never exist. It is a start, and it will take longer than the token-driven parts of AI, because for the physical world tokens were never the answer.

    “All of the things that work with deep learning, let’s take them, but make them a bit more principled.”

    Weather is only the beginning

    Neural operators and weather modeling were a personal passion of mine, so we’ve spent much of this blog and the episode exploring this work. Anima has done so much more! In the episode, we cover several other recent developments from Anima:

    * Anima has a series of works integrating neural networks and automated proof techniques. We talk about TorchLean, a new framework that lets you write PyTorch-style networks inside the proof assistant Lean and formally verify them. This is a major step for proving bounds on neural networks, something that would be really important for someone trying to, e.g., add a neural network as part of the control loop to their fusion reactor!

    * Anima was recently appointed to the United Nations Scientific Advisory Board! We talk with her about her goals of bringing evidence-based viewpoints to policy, and how AI in scientific domains can improve people’s lives all over the world.

    This episode has something for every AI or science nerd! Elegant math? ✅ Old school harmonic analysis? ✅ Fundamental developments in modern AI? ✅ Practical ways of modeling the physical world? ✅

    Give it a watch!


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    Simulation: the new Scaling Law — Joon Sung Park, Simile AI Aug 21, 2026
    Show notes

    When we first dicsussed the Summer of Simulative AI in 2024 we knew it would be a brief summer, but it has recently come back with a vengeance with SimGym in April and now Simile AI’s $2B Series B, backed by GreenOaks and Index Ventures with prominent backers like Fei-Fei Li and Andrej Karpathy, running tens of millions of simulations for Fortune 100 clients like CVS and 85–99% accuracy vs human focus groups. Time to catch up on why this Second Summer of simulation is working!From creating Smallville, the landmark 2023 paper on Generative Agents that showed AI characters could remember, plan, socialize, and develop emergent behaviors, to now building foundation models of human behavior, Joon Sung Park is trying to answer a much bigger question: what if we could simulate the world before making decisions in it? In this episode, the Simile co-founder and CEO joins us to unpack the path from generative agents to digital twins, why today’s frontier models still fail to capture how humans actually behave, and what it would take to eventually simulate all 8 billion people on Earth.We go deep on Simile’s approach to modeling human behavior: long-form interviews, observational and transaction data, randomized controlled trials, population-level and individual-level models, and post-training on the causal mechanisms behind why people make decisions. Joon explains how his research created digital twins that reproduced human behavior and attitudes 85% as accurately as people reproduced their own responses, why models optimized to be rational can be bad simulations of irrational humans, and why understanding “social physics” may require changing model weights rather than simply prompting frontier LLMs.We also explore the much larger ambition behind simulation: testing products and policies before deploying them, finding counterintuitive paths toward desired outcomes, modeling emergent behavior across entire societies, and potentially tackling problems like climate change, democratic instability, and UBI. Joon reflects on scaling laws for simulation, the economics of data-center-scale simulated worlds, the connection to Thomas Schelling and psychohistory, why simulation is surprisingly similar to painting, and whether we might already be living in one.We discuss:* How Smallville and Generative Agents led to Simile* Why Joon’s team asked: “What if we can just recreate the world that we live in?”* Why useful personal agents require deep models of their users* Memory architectures, Markdown files, and the limits of prompting* “Social physics” and behavioral foundation models* Why web data captures what people say more than what they actually do* Interviews, transactions, observational data, and randomized controlled trials* Why predicting the future matters less than understanding how to shape it* How Simile creates representative simulated populations* Simulation versus prediction and the connection to Foundation’s psychohistory* How to evaluate simulations instead of simply stacking LLM hallucinations* Creating digital twins of 1,000 real people and reaching 85% behavioral accuracy* Why frontier models can struggle to reproduce real human behavior* Why good simulations need to reproduce human biases and mistakes* Post-training models on randomized controlled trials* Population-level versus individual-level simulation* Scaling laws for human simulation* The long-term ambition to simulate all 8 billion people on Earth* Whether simulations could help solve climate change or detect collapsing democracy* Thomas Schelling and the history of agent-based modeling* Why future simulations could require an entire data center* Multi-agent simulations and what happens when simulated people interact* Replacing expensive human panels with synthetic populations* Why market research is only the starting point for simulation* Why Joon sees simulation as surprisingly similar to painting* Using simulation to study questions like UBI* Whether we are already living in a simulation* Why AGI and simulation may be the twin technologies of advanced civilizationsJoon Sung Park* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joonspark* X: https://x.com/joon_s_pk* Website: https://www.joonsungpark.com* Simile: https://www.simile.comTimestamps00:00:00 Introduction and Joon’s Path from Art to AI00:01:46 Smallville, Generative Agents, and the Origins of Simulation00:05:03 “Let’s Just Create a World” and the Future of Personal Agents00:09:53 Social Physics and Behavioral Foundation Models00:14:08 Prediction vs. Simulation: How Do You Shape the Future?00:16:59 How Simile Models Real People and Populations00:25:35 Evaluating Simulations, Digital Twins, and 85% Accuracy00:30:23 Post-Training Models to Reproduce Human Behavior00:40:04 Scaling Laws and Simulating 8 Billion People00:43:10 From Schelling to Society-Scale Agent Simulations00:46:13 The Cost and Economics of Simulating the World00:52:05 Real-World Use Cases, Synthetic Populations, and the Market00:57:27 The Future of Simulation, Painting, and UBI01:04:23 Are We Already Living in a Simulation?01:06:08 Building Simile and HiringTranscriptIntroduction: Joon Sung Park, Simile, and the Story So FarVibhu [00:00:00]: Today, we have Joon in the podcast. Excited to kick this one off. Very exciting company. I wanna kick off and ask you the question, talk us through the story of your life. How have you gotten here?Joon [00:00:13]: Yeah, for sure. I’m really excited to be here. A story of my life. So I was born in Korea, and I lived there for a good 11 years or so of my life, and then my family moved to Boston. So we moved when I was 11, and my parents were doctors, so they were going through their postdoctoral studies. My dad was a surgeon, so he was doing his sabbatical years at the Boston Children’s Hospital. So I grew up there, not too close to tech. I was very much a music and artsy, painting kind of guy.Vibhu [00:00:49]: Painting.Joon [00:00:49]: Exactly. I got into painting a little bit later, in high school, but that’s what I used to do. And then I grew up mostly in the East Coast after Korea. So I lived a good number of years in New Hampshire, and then I went to college in Pennsylvania. And I got into more of this tech scene, in college. So I was originally trained to be an artist. I thought that would be my professional career. So it wasn’t a hobby. It was like, “Hey, let’s make a living out of this.” And then gradually, I got really interested in this idea of, hey, the greatest artist often creates their own medium, and the best medium that we had available today was in computation. So I decided to go deeper into that, and one thing led to another, and we can go deeper into this, but I decided that research was something that I gradually got interested in, and here I am.Smallville, Generative Agents, and the 2023 Breakout PaperSwyx [00:01:46]: So there’s a lot that you packed into the research components. You had one of the best papers of 2023, which was the generative agents paper, commonly known as the Smallville paper.Swyx [00:01:58]: Feel free to call back to anything else that you mentioned, but most people would have heard of you from this. Do you have any statistics on how many people have, like, read it? arXiv gives you something, right? Some stats.Joon [00:02:10]: Yeah, it’s a good question. How many people have read it, I’m not sure.Joon [00:02:14]: I know we do keep track of citations, and they are going up quite fast.Swyx [00:02:23]: Yeah, Google Scholar has 7,200 citations.Vibhu [00:02:25]: I feel like it made a bigger hit than that, and it was a pretty instrumental paper. It got cited so many times.Swyx [00:02:34]: It is frequently the answer when people ask, “What is the best paper you’ve read recently?” It’s this one.Vibhu [00:02:39]: I thought the memory component was pretty underrated. It was a very good early memory system, and one of the biggest papers.Foundation Models and the Search for Killer ApplicationsJoon [00:02:47]: Yeah, so maybe I can talk a little bit about how this particular paper came together. So when I got into research, it was back in 2020 when I started my PhD program at Stanford, and that was the year, when we were about to get GPT-3 to be available. So we already had GPT-2, and you could sense that there was this new class of models that was just becoming available in the market, and the team got very intrigued. And the general consensus was, “Well, is this model going to be useful for anything?” “It’s really strange that these models are not trained to do any particular task.” But we decided to take a bet. So a large group of scholars at Stanford, and it was led by one of my co-founders, Percy Liang, and we came togetherSwyx [00:03:35]: Who coined foundation models.Joon [00:03:36]: Who coined the term foundation models. We wrote this paper, where that term came from called Opportunities and Risks of Foundation Models. And during that process, really the thing that I started to think deeply about was, here is a model that is fundamentally new in our ecosystem. The reason why this was new was it wasn’t, again, trained to do anything in particular, but its premise was it could do anything and everything. It was like a stem cell, if you were to take a biology analogy. And I got really interested in this idea that, well, if we were to really think about what are the killer applications that this particular technology would enable, what would that be? Many of my colleagues were using this for simple classification, simple generations. Interesting that these models can do that, but from an interaction perspective, not that interesting. We’ve known how to do that for many decades. And what we came down to was these models are trained on this very broad data from the web, right? So these are human behavioral data. It’s social media, Wikipedia, all these data. So if you poke at the right angle, then you could see human behavior that would just pop out that’s quite realistic, and we’ve never seen that before.The Time Machine Game and Recreating the WorldJoon [00:04:45]: So that got us really interested. The exercise that we decided to do, with this particular group of colleagues, Michael Bernstein, Percy Liang, and myself, who ended up becoming my co-founder at Simile, we sat down and we played this game that we call the time machine game.Joon [00:05:03]: Imagine we were to get on a time machine and fast-forward 10 years and look back. What would have been the single application that will have mattered that would be the most interesting and inspiring? And when we thought, “Well, what if we can just recreate the world that we live in?” it’s really hard to get more ambitious than that. Like, let’s just create a world.Joon [00:05:24]: And that’s where we started. And initially, we had this paper that was a precursor to the generative agents paper called Social Simulacra.Swyx [00:05:32]: Before you go further, were there other candidates for the most ambitious thing in the time machine exercise? What was number two or number three?Personal Agents, User Models, and Why Simulation Came FirstJoon [00:05:44]: There is a close second that we were considering, which ended up becoming more of these automation tools, especially the vision around really personalized agents that would do things for you.Swyx [00:05:59]: That’s also happening.Joon [00:06:00]: It’s also happening. But it was interesting for us, right, in that the reason why, we decided to go with the idea of simulation, one, I was a huge science fiction nerd, and this idea of creating simulation, I was personally really just fascinated. I loved the idea. It’s really cool to see, like, a game town like this and just see these agents live in it. But at the same time, my bet was if you were to create a really amazing personal assistant out of this technology, what you need first is an amazing model of your users. So I told a model, “Hey, can you go buy late dinner for me?” And it orders Hawaiian pizza, and I do not like pineapples on my pizza. Then it totally failed. The way for it to not make that mistake is only by having a deep understanding of who I am. And I gave a very simple and dumb example here, but you can imagine how this core understanding of people is instrumental. This is how, if we have our family and closest friends, they have a good mental model of who we are. That’s the basis of our social connection. So our bet also was this technology around simulation, creating accurate representation of people ought to precede the more complex agents that would automate the world that we live in. So that was the bet. But that was a very close second, and I’m still very much fascinated by it. I think there’s a lot of interesting work that’s going around. My hot take here, though, is I don’t think we’ve seen a true personal assistant that’s useful, in ways that meet the ambition of that particular line of work. I think there are early applications that are interesting, and if you talk to even ChatGPT nowadays or Claude, they know a lot about us. So a lot of the generation it’s doing, I do think it’s much more tailored, but I think the ambition is quite large in that field, and I don’t think we quite have all the right ingredients just yet.Swyx [00:08:01]: So OpenClaw and these personal agents, what do you want to see from them that they don’t currently have?Memory, Markdown, and the Limits of PromptingJoon [00:08:09]: I do think it’s slowly getting there, but I do generally want them to have much deeper understanding of the person. Right now, you look at the models. OpenClaw, what it’s leveraging is a Markdown file, and I think it’s quite clever, right? So if you look at the generative agents paper, this was the same intuition that we had, where initially when we were creating the memory architecture for the generative agents, and, like, this is, like, back in 2022, so we didn’t really quite have the idea of even agentive architecture or the term agent. But the intuition that we shared with some of the work that’s coming out today was we initially thought, “Well, do we want to make the memory into, let’s say, knowledge graph? Do we want to train a bespoke model?” All of these things. And what we decided to do was, “No. Just forget about all this.” These language models are quite good at modeling text and understanding and reasoning about text. So just put everything in a Markdown file or a text file. You’re done. I thought that was quite interesting that we could do that, and there’s a lot of strength in doing that. But also, there are limitations. It’s the way you retrieve and make sense of data that’s extremely large, it takes a lot of work. So I think that technology is getting better. I also do, however, think, there are certain things you just cannot shape just by prompting the model. So to some degree, you do need to touch the parameters of the model itself. So there is this work that I do think does need to happen, and it is happening. The question is, how far can we take it? How do we source data, and how do you also create an ecosystem where people are continuously feeding data to this model so it’s learning about you?Vibhu [00:09:50]: What’s the intuition between why you need to do it in the model?Social Physics and Behavior Foundation ModelsJoon [00:09:53]: My intuition behind the actual when do you train or even post-train a model versus just prompt a model is if the model has to learn the underlying physics of the world that it’s operating in. So it has to learn new social physics. The places where it doesn’t have to train are the places where it already has the physics. We trust the physics. It already has the base statistics, but it’s just trying to react to an environment. Then I think you can just prompt your way into getting the actions out of it. I don’t think the models that are out in the open have yet learned the complete mapping of social physics of humanity. This is one of the core these…

    Full show notes at the publisher

    🔬The BioAI Phase Shift - Matthew McPartlon & Neil Patil, Chai Discovery Aug 11, 2026
    Show notes

    This January, four big AI × Pharma tools deals were announced at the huge JPM Pharma conference that takes over San Francisco every year. OpenAI-backed Chai Discovery (now worth $4B) was somehow at the heart despite being all of 2 years old.

    The Science team is proud to bring you the first podcast with cofounder Matt McPartlon and product lead Neil Patil to tell the full story!

    Editor’s note: not to be confused with Chai AI, which was another top pod of ours.

    Pharma suddenly doing big AI tools deals

    For the non-pharma people, JPM is JP Morgan’s annual conference for pharma deal-making that takes over San Francisco for a week in January with hundreds of side events, etc. It’s a big thing.

    Tools deals for pharma are also a big (new) thing: companies that start as AI for Pharma usually end up building their own drug pipelines instead, and the reason is something like this: convincing pharma to use your tool requires proof that your tool works. Proof means good targets, maybe with good clinical validation. If you have that, then it’s easier to raise money (with a known, if long path to commercialization) or sell (e.g payment in biobucks) for a specific target than it is to sell to lots of companies on a promise that it will work across their portfolios.

    The “we’ll just partner / build our own drug” optionality proved to be the only good path up until January. What changed? In short, the tools got good enough for drug design teams to trust.

    Good-enough-to-trust unlocks the ability to scale discovery: get more, better candidates into the lab and animal trials faster. More screening for toxicity, better delivery, etc. This means that what you push to the clinic is more likely to succeed.

    Tools also unlock new capabilities: mechanisms that are very hard or impossible to develop using lab-based discovery. Designing an antibody that precisely triggers a very specific molecular cascade takes many years of trial and error. Designing bi-specific antibodies (that bind to two different proteins) is similarly difficult. Good design tools can unlock this.

    RJ: The fact that the quality of the model has jumped means you’re enabling things you just plain couldn’t do. So it’s a step change. It’s not an efficiency argument at all, or not so much.

    Matt: Yeah, exactly. It’s kind of interesting, even for us — it took me a while to believe in the thesis, actually. I talked to Josh for months before Chai started... It’s like, can I beat a mouse, and then can I do what mice can’t do? And then how many levels of interaction can you just keep building on top of that?

    Everyone playing in the structural / binding space has an angle here, and some will be better than others, but Chai is pointing to a different unlock: getting good molecules right out of the gate (meaning they don’t then need as much lab work) means that the iteration time is faster. This turns science into engineering: you can design your systems to reduce friction and hill climb towards one-shotting molecules all the way to the clinic.

    This, per-se, is not a new thesis: a16z articulated a version of this in 2020. What has changed is that structural models became binding models (how well doesn’t this molecule bind to this molecule, aka “binding affinity). Binding models unlock design, which has been steadily improving. Chai’s observation is that for engineering problems the best product tends to win, and good technology is a necessary but not sufficient condition.

    Photoshop for molecules

    With that in mind Chai has invested heavily in partnerships that allow them to learn from their Pharma counterparts.

    What is kind of cool about working so closely and supporting so many of these partners is we get to really learn about what is the stuff that would be helpful in research. So rather than doing research in a vacuum, based on what would hypothetically be cool, we're able to do informed research based on what our partners have just been organically asking us for help with.

    — Neil Patil, (Chai product lead)

    This means better UX, such as a molecule editor that is more like a CAD or graphics design program than a chatbot.

    Their approach has paid off: since June, Chai has announced three more major deals: Lilly, Novartis, argenx, plus an expansion of their Eli Lily program. This episode is too full of quotable moments for a short blog, so tune in to learn about

    * Why protein tokens have the highest downstream value of any token

    * Climbing levels of abstraction as models improve

    * How Pharma, VC, and research are all just portfolio optimization

    * How better tech changes the whole portfolio

    * How relentless focus on simplicity leads to scale

    Plus much more!


    This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.latent.space/subscribe

    The Inference Engineering Masterclass — Philip Kiely & Ali Taha, Baseten Aug 03, 2026
    Show notes

    Watch the full episode on YouTube:We first covered Baseten last year when DeepSeek mania was at peak hype. Now they have raised a monster $13B round and become one of the new cohort of AI Infra decacorns that are (with Nvidia, Intel, and the semis complex) chief beneficiaries of the Inference Inflection. We return to Baseten at the peak of the 2026 edition of Open Weights debate. Ali has published a viral breakdown of Kimi K3:And since you last saw him, Philip has spoken at AI Engineer and written the definitive book on Inference Engineering spotted all over SF:Three years ago, inference engineering barely existed as a category.Today, it is one of the most critical disciplines in AI. Inference engineering inherently tackles a different question than standard model training: “How do you turn those weights from training into a product that is fast, reliable, and affordable at scale?” Focusing on these creates an entirely new optimization problem.In one recent GLM-5.2 experiment, quantizing more of the model actually preserved its benchmark quality while increasing throughput by 20%, because the errors introduced in different layers could cancel each other out.Inference is no longer just the final step after training. It is becoming its own engineering discipline, with its own research problems, infrastructure, and increasingly specialized roles.In this episode, Baseten’s Philip Kiely and Ali Taha join swyx and Vibhu to explain what actually happens after a new open model is released and what it takes to turn “we generated a token” into a fast, reliable, production-ready API.We go deep on cache-aware routing, disaggregated prefill and decode, quantization, speculative decoding, KV-cache movement, model parallelism, GPU kernels, and the race to make frontier models up to 10× faster. Philip and Ali explain why inference optimizations can still produce gains of 20%, 100%, or even 200%; how quantization errors can cancel one another out; why identical weights can behave differently across clusters; and how Baseten grafted a Kimi vision encoder onto GLM-5.2 without changing the underlying language model.The conversation then expands beyond LLMs into NVIDIA Dynamo, mega kernels, Rubin, AI-specific chips, local inference, video generation, diffusion versus autoregressive models, and the enormous compute barrier to generating coherent long-form video. Finally, we explore the convergence of training and inference, continual learning through persistent KV cache, and the emerging loop where models help optimize the infrastructure that runs them.We discuss:* What happens when a 200,000-token request enters an inference system* Cache-aware routing and reusing previously computed KV cache* Why prefill and decode are increasingly handled by different GPUs* When dedicated deployments become cheaper and more reliable than shared APIs* How speculative decoding uses a smaller model to accelerate a larger one* Tool calling, structured outputs, and what LLMs actually do* What it takes to support a new open model on day zero* Grafting Kimi’s vision encoder onto GLM-5.2* Retrofitting inefficient model layers with components from other architectures* Why models sometimes collapse into repeating the same token* How hardware, kernels, and race conditions create nondeterministic failures* Preserving model fidelity while making inference faster* How quantization errors can cancel each other out* Why inference optimizations still deliver gains of 20%, 100%, and 200%* How optimized serving can make a model up to 10× faster* NVIDIA Dynamo, KV-aware routing, and distributed model serving* Speculative decoding the speculative decoder* Why local AI is about making models less dumb while data-center AI is about making them less slow* Tensor, expert, and pipeline parallelism across GPUs* Hardware-aware model design, auto-tuning, and the case against mega kernels* Rubin and why inference is becoming a systems problem* Whether modern GPUs are evolving into programmable AI ASICs* Why enormous models like Kimi K3 require GB300-class hardware* Why open-source video generation still trails Veo, Kling, and other closed models* The quadratic attention bottleneck behind long-form AI video* Autoregressive video, real-time generation, and compounding quality drift* Why future video systems may combine autoregressive and diffusion architectures* Training for inference and inference for training* Continuous post-training, deployment, evaluation, and improvement loops* How GLM-5.2 helped optimize the kernels serving GLM-5.2 itself* Why faster networking could unlock dramatically faster decoding* Continual learning, KV-cache compaction, and persistent model memoryShow Notes* How to build a day-0 API for Kimi K3* 22580: From GPT2 to Kimi3, ExplainedPhilip Kiely* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/philipkiely* X: https://x.com/philipkiely* Inference Engineering: https://www.baseten.co/inference-engineering/Ali Taha* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aliestaha/* X: https://x.com/waterloointernTimestamps00:00:00 Introduction and the 200K-Token Prompt00:03:18 Dedicated Deployments, Speculative Decoding, and Tool Calling00:11:26 Launching Production-Ready Open Models00:19:06 Model Retrofits, Failure Modes, and Nondeterminism00:28:22 Quantization and Canceling Errors00:32:15 The Race to 10× Faster Inference00:40:48 Dynamo, Speculation, and Local vs. Data-Center AI00:50:18 Model Parallelism, Auto-Tuning, and Mega Kernels01:00:55 Rubin, GPUs vs. ASICs, and Custom AI Chips01:10:03 Giant Models and the Limits of GPU Memory01:12:42 AI Video, Quadratic Attention, and Autoregressive Generation01:21:47 Audio, Images, and Diffusion Models01:27:32 Training, Self-Optimizing Models, and Continual Learning01:40:06 Closing ThoughtsTranscriptIntroduction: Baseten, Waterloo Intern, and Inference EngineeringSwyx [00:00:00]: Okay, we’re here in the studio with Philip, old friend from Inference Engineering, the book, as well as Baseten and everything that you’ve done, you and I have done before, as well as Ali. Welcome.Ali [00:00:15]: Pleasure to meet you.Swyx [00:00:15]: Waterloo intern.Ali [00:00:16]: Waterloo intern, always.Swyx [00:00:17]: When did you get “Waterloo intern” as a handle?Ali [00:00:19]: As a handle? Oh.Ali [00:00:20]: I think the rebranding happened mid-March. When I saw it was open, I was like, “I have to take it. Up for grabs.”Philip [00:00:26]: The problem is that Ali is really good at his job and is not gonna be an intern much longer.Philip [00:00:30]: So we have to figure out who’s gonna get the handle.Ali [00:00:33]: Well, I’ll pass the torch over to the next intern.Swyx [00:00:34]: Oh, okay. It can be, like, you just pass it to another Waterloo grad.Ali [00:00:37]: To another Waterloo intern. No, bruh.Philip [00:00:39]: Yeah.Ali [00:00:39]: Intern.Swyx [00:00:40]: Intern, yeah.Ali [00:00:40]: And no.Philip [00:00:41]: You gotta get an intern from Waterloo.Ali [00:00:42]: Yeah, I’ve gotta get an intern from Waterloo.Swyx [00:00:44]: Right.Ali [00:00:44]: But they have to follow the path.Swyx [00:00:45]: Oh, it could, but it could come from Baseten, so it’s like whoever Baseten gets from Waterloo.Ali [00:00:48]: Right.Swyx [00:00:49]: Has the title of Waterloo.Ali [00:00:50]: It stays in the ecosystem.Philip [00:00:51]: Exactly.Ali [00:00:52]: Halfway through the internship, you either get it or you’re out.Philip [00:00:55]: You should also do, like, a big graduation ceremony where you change the handle.Ali [00:00:59]: Just say it.Philip [00:00:59]: For everybody.Swyx [00:01:00]: You guys are good at ceremonies, clearly. We had a nice launch of the book, very successful. But before we get into all that, I wanna start off with a fun question for you. Okay, you’re an expert inference engineer. What happens when I send a long query, say two hundred thousand tokens into Baseten’s inference? What’s the process of query through GPU model routing, balancing, all that? What is all the stuff that we don’t think about?Long Context Requests, KV Cache, and Cache-Aware RoutingPhilip [00:01:26]: With a long query specifically, the first thing that I’m gonna ask is, “Have you sent me this query before, or at least part of it?” and I really hope you have, because it’s gonna be a lot easier for me and a lot cheaper for you. So the first thing that we’re gonna look at is some cache-aware routing, where we’re going to see, we probably have a number of instances, a number of replicas up serving whatever model you’re hitting. We want to send this one to something with, number one, available prefill workers, and number two, ideally some cached input already there so that we can skip prefill on at least part of these two hundred thousand tokens. If you’re doing two hundred thousand tokens, it’s probably coding or a multi-turn agent or something where you would expect to have that cached. If you don’t, we’re gonna have to send it to a prefill worker. We’ve at least on certain models disaggregated prefill and decode, so you’re going to have one set of GPUs that’s solely going to process the input, create the KV cache, and get you your first token, and then that’s going to be passed over to a separate set of GPUs, which is going to run decode. We’re going to iteratively make those tokens. We’re probably going to have some speculator model in front of that. I’m going to assume that you’re doing coding, and because of that, our speculator model, which assumes you’re doing coding, is gonna have a high draft token acceptance rate. If I’m wrong and you’re asking me to summarize every Harry Potter book, it’s gonna be slower. And then we stream that output to you and account for it, charge you, a couple of pennies and say, “Hey, would you like to send another one?”Swyx [00:03:04]: Except Baseten doesn’t charge by pennies.Philip [00:03:07]: Well, yeah, we charge. I’m assuming that we’re talking about the public model APIs. If you are setting up a dedicated deployment, then yeah, it’s not pennies.Public APIs vs. Dedicated DeploymentsSwyx [00:03:18]: Yeah, one of the key differentiators when I was talking with Baseten initially was that people who want very high volume just need to rent by the box, ‘cause then it’s up to you to figure out how to saturate the box.Ali [00:03:31]: And more often than not, it’s, like, way cheaper if you’re pushing, like, millions of tokens per hour, if you just pay per hour instead of pay per token.Philip [00:03:37]: Yeah, they do. I think that we’ve increasingly seen a lot of demand for the pay per token APIs, just because everyone wants to try open models, and then once they find a use case that’s really sticky, then they move over to dedicated.Swyx [00:03:51]: Is there a best practice on when it’s time to swap over?Philip [00:03:54]: Couple reasons. Yeah, reliability, that’s a big one, right?Ali [00:03:57]: Like, if they have a very specific use case, they want you to train something specifically for them, like they want their own spec dec, for instance, for their own traffic.Swyx [00:04:04]: Spec dec is speculative decoding.Speculative Decoding and Custom SpeculatorsAli [00:04:05]: Speculative decoding, yeah.Swyx [00:04:07]: You have to explain.Ali [00:04:07]: Sorry. Like, speculative decoding is like, if you have a huge model, right? And so the model is going to be generating one token at a time every single turn, every single forward pass. So we attach, like, this little, like, parasite, like this layer that goes on top of the model, and this model just has to predict. It does three very fast autoregressive forward passes, and it will predict, like, three certain tokens, and then you do one forward stage over the entire original model in order to see if those predictions were correct or not, and then you accept them or you reject them. Now, this draft model is traffic specific, so if you, like, Philip said, if you’re summarizing Harry Potter books, I can train exclusively that draft model on Harry Potter books, and I can guarantee you that I’m gonna accept the three tokens every single time. And so with that case, I increase your decode speed. I wouldn’t be able to provide this to you if you’re a shared endpointSwyx [00:04:53]: YeahAli [00:04:53]: ‘cause I have no idea if you’re doing Harry Potter, if you’re doing coding, if you’re doing English. We don’t know. Also, there was a thing in the book that mentioned that if they really cared about a specific threshold, chapter four, I think. Do you remember that?Philip [00:05:06]: Yeah. The things that you can do is you can set a specific, like, batch sizing, a specific, like, parallelism strategy if you’re trying to optimize for, like, throughput versus latency. You can. Maybe a NVFP4 quant doesn’t pass your benchmarks and you wanna run a model at higher precision, you could do that. There’s just a bunch of reasons why you might wanna have your own endpoint and the biggest one, of course, just being, like, you don’t have to deal with someone else doing a hundred million tokens of benchmarking traffic at the endpoint when you happen to be trying to serve your users.Swyx [00:05:40]: Yeah. I think one thing that is. That is a classic journey. Like, it’s people is asking the, what happens when you type Google into the browser. Tool calling, is that just, you’re generating JSON or is there more complication beyond that?Tool Calling, JSON, and Structured OutputsAli [00:05:58]: Certain customers that we have, they have their own post-trained models, and so they demand a tool calling that’s not just, like parse a file or go find the weather. It’s something that’s very specific and you have to do post-training on this. And if the post-training on the model is not good or if the quantization after the post-training to get the inference to be fast, the model will struggle reading the JSON file and reading the tool calling. But it doesn’t require its own like sandbox. It’s not like it’s going to use that tool calling to like escape a sandbox or like it doesn’t have to be contained. It can just be a normal dedicated deployment. The challenge with tool calling more and more seems to be that the companies want certain tool calling which is a very sensitive thing to train. And because you’re dealing with all of the JSON outputs, if it doesn’t like close the end of the request in a very certain manner, you end up with a model that did the tool calling and like the thinking and so as a result of that, it didn’t see the result and just hallucinated the result as it decoded. That seems to be the most challenging thing with tool calling, not really the sandboxes model.Philip [00:06:56]: Yeah, that’s a challenge on the training side and then on the inference side, there’s work that you can do to scope the possible output. So we published this at this point close to two years ago, the solution to this problem which is you make a state machine and you use that to constrain the output to a specific format. So this is the structured output problem. If you remember backSwyx [00:07:27]: Yeah, the specific grammar is,Philip [00:07:29]: Yeah, exactlySwyx [00:07:30]: GML had this thing.Philip [00:07:31]: Yeah. So it’s like the old-school “make sure this is only JSON”, return only JSON orSwyx [00:07:38]: YeahPhilip [00:07:38]: Grandma’s gonna die type of prompts.Swyx [00:07:39]: Is it BNF grammar? At some point OpenAI had released a thing that was like, yeah, if you want to constrain your output, write BNF grammar, back as NOR.Philip [00:07:47]: In our inference system, it’s just a specified output format. And you get the guarantee that your output’s gonna be structured along that format. And so applying that to tool calls can like help cut down on. You can still call the wrong tool or call no tool. It doesn’t solve the certainty problem but it at least solves the output structuring problemSwyx [00:08:10]: YeahPhilip [00:08:10]: Within tool calls.Swyx [00:08:12]: And MCP is just another form of tool, right.Philip [00:08:14]:…

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    Codex from 0 to 10M Users: Building ChatGPT Work — Akshay Nathan, OpenAI Jul 28, 2026
    Show notes

    There are roughly 100x more people who use code than who can write code. As code that “just works” becomes easier to generate, this group may be the biggest prize of all — if you can get the agentic interface right.A key trend we have been tracking over at AINews is the absolute explosion in Codex usage this year, with MAU now up >10x from Jan 2026. Less than two weeks after their July 9th launch, OpenAI said ChatGPT Work and Codex had reached 10M users combined (as we cover in the pod, Codex now powers ChatGPT Work, so all ChatGPT Work users are now users of the Codex harness, even if they aren’t traditional engineers) — showing the early innings of what happens when you graduate from coding agents to knowledge work agents:We’ve been calling out how coding agents are “breaking containment” to do everything else this year to power every other part of knowledge work - and it started with the org chart, with a major reorg last month that amounted to two of Codex’s most prominent leaders, Greg and Tibo, taking responsibility over product and ChatGPT specifically, completing a “Superapp” consolidation cycle first discussed in March.With these updates Codex is no longer just a coding tool. In June, OpenAI said knowledge workers already accounting for roughly 20% of Codex’s user base and growing more than 3x as quickly as developers. A product dedicated for knowledge workers was being pulled out of the Codex team.However, knowledge work has a different set of problems and environments than coding. For decades, knowledge work has been scattered across different primitives like documents for writing, spreadsheets for analysis, slide decks for communication, and specialized applications for everything else. ChatGPT Work now enables users to work across every primitive with agents. Instead of opening an application and manually operating its features, the user can describe an outcome and collaborates with an agent that can assemble the tools, context, and artifact needed to reach it.From building no-code products at Airtable to leading Productivity Engineering at OpenAI, Akshay Nathan has spent much of his career trying to make the power of software accessible to people who do not write code. In this episode, Akshay joins swyx and Vibhu to unpack the launch of ChatGPT Work, why Codex unexpectedly took off among non-developers inside OpenAI, and the company’s broader plan to bring useful agents from software engineers to knowledge workers and eventually everyone.We go deep on the shared agent harness behind Codex and ChatGPT Work, why OpenAI brought the experiences together without making them identical, and how persistent computers, artifacts, Sites, plugins, memory, and sub-agents are changing what people can delegate to AI. Akshay explains why some teams are replacing decks and spreadsheets with interactive websites, how agents can gather context across code, Slack, documents, and local files, and what OpenAI learned from personal-agent products like OpenClaw.Side note: also don’t miss Abhihek’s sandbox track keynote at AIE, which now powers a lot of the sandboxing for ChatGPT Work… and yes was also broken by an unreleased OpenAI model in the recent HuggingFace incident.Akshay also reflects on how AI is transforming product development itself: why more people will become generalists with a specialty, why ideas and taste become the bottlenecks when almost anyone can build, why LLMs still struggle to generate genuinely grounded new ideas, and why teams must distinguish increased motion from actual progress.We discuss:* Why Codex unexpectedly took off among non-developers inside OpenAI* Why employees felt like using Codex gave them a new superpower* The product insight that led OpenAI to build ChatGPT Work* Why Codex and ChatGPT Work share the same underlying agent harness* How their UX, Git visibility, artifacts, and sandboxing defaults differ* Why OpenAI merged its agent experiences instead of building separate products* How AI is blurring the boundaries between engineering, design, strategy, and operations* Why OpenAI wants the default model configuration to work for most users* When power users should use deeper reasoning, Ultra, or multi-agent modes* Artifacts, agentic spreadsheets, and creating high-fidelity work products* Why interactive Sites may replace decks and spreadsheets* The challenge of designing a simple interface for an agent that can build almost anything* Why users should retry tasks that models could not handle three or six months ago* How AI can gather context for performance reviews without replacing human judgment* The OpenAI automation that turns internal Slack and document activity into memes* What reaching ten million ChatGPT Work and Codex users means for the product* How OpenClaw inspired persistent environments, scheduled tasks, and personal agents* Using ChatGPT for financial planning, budgeting, workouts, meals, and household management* The design tradeoffs behind sub-agents and how much of their work users should see* ChatGPT memory, Chronicle, and long-term context* Why AI may make more people generalists with deep specialties* Why ideas and taste become more important when almost anyone can build* Why LLMs still struggle with the instruction “bring me new ideas”* Measuring productivity through quality at-bats instead of commits, tokens, or pull requests* The critical difference between AI-generated motion and meaningful progressAkshay Nathan* LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/akshaynathan/* X: https://x.com/akshaynathan_Timestamps00:00:00 Introduction and Bringing the Power of Code to Everyone00:01:33 Joining OpenAI and Preserving a Startup Culture00:02:40 What OpenAI Learned from Enterprise AI Adoption00:05:28 Why OpenAI Built ChatGPT Work00:07:17 Codex vs. ChatGPT Work and the Shared Agent Harness00:12:07 Why OpenAI Merged Its Agent Experiences00:16:24 Models, Reasoning Levels, and Choosing the Right Default00:20:26 Artifacts, Agentic Spreadsheets, and Model–Product Collaboration00:24:22 Why Sites Could Replace Decks and Spreadsheets00:30:08 Designing an Agent That Can Build Almost Anything00:34:28 From Developer Agents to Knowledge Work—and Everyone00:36:07 Power-User Advice and AI-Assisted Performance Reviews00:40:41 OpenAI’s Internal AI Memes and the Ten-Million-User Launch00:44:39 OpenClaw, Personal Agents, and ChatGPT as an Operating System00:50:24 Sub-Agents, Ultra Mode, and How Much Control Users Need00:54:39 ChatGPT Memory, Personalization, and Chronicle01:00:19 How AI Is Reshaping Product Development and Tech Roles01:03:15 Ideas, Taste, and Why LLMs Struggle to Generate New Ideas01:04:42 Measuring Productivity, Quality At-Bats, and Motion vs. ProgressTranscriptIntroduction: Akshay Nathan, ChatGPT Work, and the No-Code ArcSwyx [00:00:00]: We’re here in the studio with Akshay from OpenAI. Welcome.Akshay Nathan [00:00:07]: Thank you.Swyx [00:00:08]: And with our trusty co-host, Vibhu. So you recently launched ChatGPT Work. You lead Core Product Engineering. It’s been a long journey, into all this. I find it very interesting that you started with no code or low code, with Walrus and Airtable. And to some extent, ChatGPT Work is like the super app of super apps of, well, here is the ultimate no code. You just write a prompt.Akshay Nathan [00:00:32]: Yeah. It’s funny how things come, full circle. I think for a long time in my career, I started my career working consumer fintech, but then after that, like, there’s this hypothesis that, the things that we were able to do with code, like, as engineers, like, if we could bring that to many more people in a more, accessible way, then that would be truly magical. We were working on a startup. It’s funny, like, before LLMs, before vision LLMs, on how to do automated testing with AI. It was just kinda jank, back then, but doing what we can, and then worked at Airtable for a while on the same thesis that, like, if we can bring a database or the primitives behind a database to people, that’d be really useful to them. But once LLMs came onto the scene, it became clear that, this was the missing piece, like, the missing technology required to, like, bring the magic of code to everyone without them having to know what’s going on underneath the hood. And so, like, I think this launch and a lot of the stuff that we’ve been up to is, like, the manifestation of that.From Walrus and Airtable to OpenAIVibhu [00:01:33]: How was stuff when you joined? So you joined OpenAI 2023. Now we’ve got, so much more stuff, so ChatGPT, Codex app, ChatGPT Work. Have things changed?Joining OpenAI and What Hasn’t ChangedAkshay Nathan [00:01:44]: I think the more interesting thing is how things haven’t changed. Like, one, I joined I remember when I joined, it was, like, five hundred people. One thing I was worried about was, like, I was looking for something, more early stage and, like, was it gonna feel startup enough? And I joined, and I was like, “This feels even more startup-y than I could ever imagine.” And, like, that really hasn’t changed even till now. I think the, like, level of, like, bottoms-up ambition and, like, the ability of anyone to, like, do anything or have an idea and ship it is really cool. But on the, like, mission side, I think what was really compelling to me is this mission of, bringing frontier intelligence to everyone. Like, building AGI and then bringing it to everyone. And, I think acknowledging back then that, like, that vision is gonna, not be a linear progression. Like, we’re probably gonna, like, try different products and have different things that succeed and don’t. But the vision has stayed the same, and the mission has stayed the same, and we’re starting to see the pieces, fall together, and that’s really cool.Enterprise Lessons: No One-Size-Fits-All AISwyx [00:02:40]: You worked on Enterprise. What A lot of people never touch ChatGPT Enterprise. What is something that you learned from there that you’re bringing into your work now?Akshay Nathan [00:02:52]: I think how there’s no one-size-fits-all solution in Enterprise. I remember in the early days of ChatGPT Enterprise, like, when we talked to customers and, like, everyone. That was, like, when I think it was a year after ChatGPT was released, and everyone was so excited to bring, AI into their enterprise. And, there were all these teams being stood up. It was, like, the AI deployment team with, like, these enormous budgets. And if you asked anyone, like, what were they excited about? Like, what were they excited about solving? Like, at first, you’d get, like, kinda like the baseline answers of, like, “Yeah, we have all this context and data and all this stuff.” But then if you ask them, like, “What was, like, a discrete use case that, like, they want AI to enable in their workplace?” You get such a different, like, variance, like, explosion of, different types of answers. And it’s interesting, like, you using, like, these models and these products, you have this box, and you can say anything to it, which is the magic. But it’on the flip side, it also means that, like, you don’t know what to do with it. And in Enterprise, I think a big part of that is, like, meeting the users where they are, like, what use case were they trying to solve, and then teaching them how they can use AI to, like, gain leverage there.Swyx [00:03:56]: Do you meaningfully differentiate that from forward-deployed engineering?Akshay Nathan [00:04:01]: I think there is the go-to-market side of it and then there is the product side of it. I think you need someone on the product side. And I think, like, however good we get at FDE motion, like, I think at the end of the day, if we have a user who’s, like, looking at their computer or looking at their phone, like, it’s our job in the product to, like, be enabling them and showing them where to go. So we’re really excited about that.Vibhu [00:04:24]: Do you think there’s been changes, over the past three years of adoption? So there have been, step function changes. You have reasoning models and whatnot. Is there still the same problems of Enterprise has black box, don’t know what to do with it, or have things changed?Adoption, Agents, and the Next 10x MarketAkshay Nathan [00:04:39]: We’re seeing now that, like, there’s this huge uptake, right? Everyone is extremely excited about it. It feels like, many people are, millions, hundreds of millions of people are using ChatGPT. They understand, like, how generally to work with AI. But then, like, every time, like, a new capability gets unlocked, so now, like, we’re seeing with agents, like, there is probably a contingent of, like, early adopters still who, truly get it, who are like, “ we you can do anything. You just have to make sure the right context is there, it’s connected to the right tools, and that you are supervising it, but, like, anything is possible.” But then there’s, like, this, like, 10x or 100x bigger market where, like, they don’t yet get that, or they don’t yet see that. And so I think that’s the next stage here. So to answer your question, like, I think the adoption is there and growing fast, but I think the opportunity is, like, far bigger than that. That’s where we wanna play, especially with ChatGPT Work.ChatGPT Work, Codex, and the Super App MergeSwyx [00:05:27]: Yeah. well, let’s, let’s skip ahead to ChatGPT Work. only, like, a month ago or so, announced. what was the decision process that led into it? there was this, overall merging of the super app. Is that what we’re officially calling it? you deprecated the browser as well. Just, summarize your last, like, couple months of working on this thing.Akshay Nathan [00:05:50]: Yeah. It feels like forever now, but it’s only been a few months. I think maybe the one, impetus that, like- Is most salient is when we release Codex, or even internally had Codex, like, it was really surprising to us, I think we recently put out some stats on this, that there was this, like, real inflection of, like, adoption among non-developers at OpenAI. And, I, through this product development process, like, would go to, like, these UXR sessions to talk to people internally. And the thing that stuck out to me is, like, one, like, you go talk to, like, strategic finance or marketing or whatever, and they’re all using Codex for, their use cases. That part’s cool, but the thing that really stuck out to me is how proud people were that they were using Codex. Like, how, likeSwyx [00:06:34]: It’s like, “I’m not supposed to be using it, but I am.”Akshay Nathan [00:06:36]: It was that. It was, like, that they were, early to this, like, new thing, but it was also this thing of, like, they felt like they had a superpower, right? And, what we recognized then is that, like, the power of Codex, the power of agents, like, we already had this massive distribution base of people who have, come to know and love ChatGPT. Like, how do we show that to them? Like, how do we bring it to them? Which is, like, a hard product problem, and it’s, like, a tricky thing, right? There’s many ways you can go about it. And so that’s what we called the Merge and the Super App over time, and ultimately launched it in ChatGPT Work, is how do we do that? But it came from that initial realization that, like, the power was not only for developers, like, much earlier than probably even we thought. Like, it could be extended to everyone.Swyx [00:07:17]: How do you see the products differently? So, like, who is it for, right? So Codex started out even CLI, then app. Now there’s a merge of ChatGPT Codex and ChatGPT Work, so is it the opening for the average user, for enterprise, for work? How do you position it?Akshay Nathan [00:07:36]: I think we want to get it to position it for if you’re doing work-related things, for lack of a better word, right?Who ChatGPT Work Is ForAkshay Nathan [00:07:42]: I think productivity is what, like, the pillar that I support. Like, that’s the name of the…

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    Inside the Model Factory — Eiso Kant, Poolside AI Jul 23, 2026
    Show notes

    In recent months, the open vs closed, and US vs China discussions on model ownership and sovereign/local AI have heated up to a fever pitch. So it is very very good news that Poolside AI are finally emerging with new models, like Laguna S 2.1, that are beating Thinking Machines’ recent release nearly 10 times their size.Poolside’s recent tech report got a lot of praise due to their level of detail, and Vibhu first covered Laguna’s recent technical report on our paper club:From spending $12 million building language models for code before the world cared to creating a Model Factory that can take a model from pre-training to release in eight weeks, Eiso Kant has spent more than a decade betting that code is the path to AGI. In this episode, the Poolside co-founder joins swyx and Vibhu to explain why ChatGPT felt like vindication, why Poolside embraced open weights and open research, and why he would rather live in a world with 100 foundation model companies than five even if Poolside were one of the five.We go deep on Poolside’s Model Factory: the engineering systems behind 10,000–20,000 experiments per month, streaming data directly into training, reproducible experimentation, low-precision compute, and agents that increasingly write code, launch jobs, evaluate results, and modify the pipelines used to train future models. Eiso also unpacks their recent launch Laguna S, why persistence, verification, and backtracking may matter more than raw intelligence, how much capability remains inside smaller models, why reinforcement learning will move earlier into pre-training, and why next-token prediction is still extracting too little from the web.We also discuss model-harness co-design, Poolside’s path from coding agents to AGI, why Eiso thinks MCP and traditional tool calls are “stupid,” the real economics behind frontier-model training, Poolside’s $500 million raise, open-source AI, regulation, NVIDIA and TSMC’s influence, engineering productivity in the agent era, high-agency teams, and hiring at Poolside.We discuss:* How Andrej Karpathy’s RNN work inspired Eiso to start building language models for code in 2015* Why Eiso spent four years and $12 million pursuing an idea before the market cared* Why ChatGPT felt like vindication and brought Poolside back to open source* Why Eiso would prefer 100 foundation model companies over an oligopoly of five* The difference between releasing open weights and publishing genuinely open research* Why Poolside deliberately built a global research organization outside the Bay Area talent war* Why model building is ultimately 90% engineering* The Model Factory: Poolside’s end-to-end system for rapidly training and improving models* How fewer than 70 researchers run roughly 10,000–20,000 experiments each month* How Poolside moved from six-month model cycles to five- and eight-week launches* Why streaming data directly into training unlocked faster experimentation* How immutable data, versioned code, and reproducibility enable rigorous model research* Why Eiso wants capable researchers to leave their labs and become Poolside’s competitors* Why 95% of model building can be reduced to better data or compute efficiency* Laguna S and why persistence, verification, and backtracking can outperform raw intelligence* Why smaller models may handle far more knowledge work than previously expected* Why reinforcement learning will move earlier into pre-training* Why next-token prediction is still failing to extract enough knowledge from the web* Why distillation and environments have become the AI industry’s favorite “drugs”* Why mid-training is really an early form of curriculum design* Low-precision training, networking bottlenecks, and the next gains in compute efficiency* Laguna S: 118 billion total parameters, 8 billion active, and eight weeks from training to launch* Why model builders can often evaluate a new checkpoint within its first 30 minutes* Model versus harness: where agent capabilities actually come from* Why Poolside sees coding and long-horizon software tasks as a path to AGI* Why Eiso thinks MCP and traditional tool calls are “stupid”* Why future agents will write scripts instead of choosing from dozens of predefined tools* The case for minimal harnesses, containers, and model freedom* Why Poolside is prioritizing vision but does not expect to work on audio soon* Why language may be the most compute-efficient modality for encoding knowledge and reasoning* The real cost of model development and why the final training run is anticlimactic* The story behind the Poolside name and why it represents refusing to lower ambitions* How Poolside raised $500 million while investors still questioned whether AGI was real* Why intelligence could become the world’s most demanded and commoditized resource* When open models may become too capable to release without restrictions* Why unilateral AI safety does not work in a globally competitive environment* How regulation could accidentally lock in an oligopoly of two or three AI companies* NVIDIA, TSMC, and the hardware systems underpinning foundation-model progress* Why reinforcement-learning wall-clock time is one of Poolside’s biggest bottlenecks* Why Poolside trains models from scratch instead of simply distilling larger models* How AI changes the way companies should measure engineering productivity* Why agency may become the most important quality for employees in the AI era* How leaders align high-agency people through shared goals and clear constraints* Hiring across research, post-training, pre-training, architecture, evals, and engineering at PoolsideEiso KantLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/eisokantX: https://x.com/eisokantPoolside: https://poolside.aiTimestamps00:00:00 Introduction00:00:54 Karpathy, RNNs, and Building Code Models Before Transformers00:02:26 The $12M Failure and ChatGPT Vindication00:03:39 Open Source and the Case for 100 Foundation Model Companies00:09:22 Open Weights, Open Research, and Poolside’s Global Team00:16:04 The Model Factory: Why Model Building Is 90% Engineering00:20:19 Agents, Automated Experiments, and Early Signs of RSI00:24:04 Streaming Data, Reproducibility, and Scientific Rigor00:30:35 Creating More Foundation Model Companies00:36:07 Laguna S: Persistence vs. Raw Intelligence00:43:01 Reinventing Pre-Training, RL, and Curriculum Design00:52:33 Low-Precision Training and Squeezing More From Smaller Models00:58:37 Model Harnesses, Coding Agents, and the Path to AGI01:09:26 Why MCP and Traditional Tool Calls Are “Stupid”01:13:04 Vision, Multimodality, and Why Language Still Matters01:18:15 Scaling Models and the Real Economics of Training01:20:40 Why Poolside Is Called Poolside and Raising $500M01:27:37 Open Models, AI Safety, and the Risk of an Oligopoly01:33:53 NVIDIA, TSMC, and the Reinforcement-Learning Bottleneck01:41:52 Smaller Models, Distillation, Engineering Productivity, and HiringTranscriptIntroduction: Eiso Kant, Poolside, and Open ModelsSwyx [00:00:00]: All right, we’re here in the studio with Eiso Kant from Poolside, together with Vibhu. Welcome.Eiso Kant [00:00:08]: Thanks. Thanks for having me, guys. Good to be here.Swyx [00:00:10]: Yeah, fresh on the plane. You texted me, you were like, “Hey, I’m on my way to SF.” I was like, “You’re on a plane right now, right?” Like, hey.Eiso Kant [00:00:16]: I know. After I texted you, I realized that probably coming in with major jet lag was gonna offer some fun experiences today, but let’s do it.Swyx [00:00:23]: I mean, I think the thing I would tell guests is that they don’t have to prepare that much because if you’re truly working on this every single day, then even, like, what you hazily remember is going to be new for a lot of the audience that don’t live in your world every day, right? so 10 years ago, you did a talk at Google Slush, talking about the democratization of AI. and, now here you are, like, open sourcing an incredible new model that we’re gonna talk about. But I guess, like, what got you into democratization of AI? Like, it’s not obvious from your LinkedIn or something.From Karpathy’s RNN Post to SourcedEiso Kant [00:00:57]: No, it’s not at all. I don’t think it’s obvious how I got in this space. I owe getting into this space to Andrej Karpathy.Eiso Kant [00:01:05]: In 2015, he wrote an article called “The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Recurrent Neural Nets.”Swyx [00:01:10]: Neural Nets, yep.Eiso Kant [00:01:11]: And that article, I read it, and I pivoted my startup at the time overnight to working on RNNs, and later LSTMs and Transformer models to be able to write code. If you go to this article and you scroll down, you can start seeing, like, this was the precursor to what ended up becoming language models. So, at least when he was character-level language models that were starting to predict letters, he has an example out here. There’s a little Paul Graham generator, and you can read it, and the text makes sense, but it doesn’t. and there’s a little-- There’s an example of code a little bit further down. Yeah, so Shakespeare.Swyx [00:01:47]: Shakespeare.Swyx [00:01:49]: CoolEiso Kant [00:01:49]: And for some reason, I read this, and I went down the rabbit hole of learning everything I could about RNNs and LSTMs, right? This is Transformer paper. And I had built a completely unreasonable belief, that neural nets should be able to generalize to anything and everything, and that language should be able to generalize, to a lot of things that are intelligent and the ability to write code. And so I started building Sourced, which was a fully open source company trying to build, what we used to call machine learning on code, language models on code. And we spent about four or five years on this, till the end of 2019. And that sounds really cool today, but back then, no one cared.Eiso Kant [00:02:29]: Right? Like, no one cared. We were in the dark. Like, we did things along the way. We tried applying convolutional neural nets to, like, the structure of code. We were. when attention came out, we were applying it to LSTMs, and then the Transformer paper came out. And it - it wasn’t obvious, and what we missed throughout that entire journey, that we were on the right track, but we should have just kept scaling up. And today, to all of us, the scaling laws and scaling up seems like the most obvious thing. But having spent four or five years of my life on working on language models on code, it wasn’t obvious. So I have a lot of respect to folks at Google and OpenAI and others who took that confidence and kept going. we failed ultimately at the time, and it was, like, biggest failure of my career, right? You blew $12 million of investors’ money, which was a lot back then.Swyx [00:03:18]: Yep.Eiso Kant [00:03:19]: You spent, still a lot, but, And you spent years with, like, a group of 40 people just obsessing over this problem. And life took a different turn, And it was, and family became a focus, and I kept my heads down and really, didn’t really look at language models for the following two years. big mistake considering Following years are gonna be really interesting. And then ChatGPT came out And it was like a vindication. It’s like people started texting me. I found, like, my old, work decks and these old talks. And throughout that whole journey, we,ChatGPT, Vindication, and Returning to Open SourceEiso Kant [00:03:56]: We really had a strong point of view at the time that, like, as you’re building more capable intelligence, it should be open and open source.Eiso Kant [00:04:04]: When we started Poolside, that wasn’t the case at all, and I wanna be very open about it. When we started Poolside, we were like, there was a premise of two things. One is this technology is not gonna stop compounding in capabilities. I think to most people obvious today, but three-plus years ago when we started, most people were still arguing if these were stochastic parrots or not.Eiso Kant [00:04:23]: And the second was that reinforcement learning was gonna be the biggest driver for LLM capabilities. Today, very obvious. Three years ago, was not an opinion held or direction held at either OpenAI or Google or Anthropic or others. And so people looked down on us a little bit. They were like, “ is this really gonna work?” And so we just started working the problem, and we never really thought about open source again. We just kept our heads down and we built our, like, knowledge, understanding from scratch, right? We didn’t roll out of an existing lab. So we picked up the papers and started writing code and figuring things out.Eiso Kant [00:04:59]: And it wasn’t until the beginning of this year that me and my founder, Jason, picked up the open source conversation again.Eiso Kant [00:05:07]: And if you go back to some of the early things on our website, it was very straightforward. It was we wanna get to AGI, we wanna support a world of abundance, and we wanna be the first company that gets there.Eiso Kant [00:05:20]: But we started talking at the beginning of this year because it became obvious that the world was going in a direction that was starting to like, pick at us a little bit. Like, it didn’t, this didn’t happen overnight. It was, like, a little bit we were seeing this and we’re like, “Okay, The world’s going down a path.” And Throughout this journey, there was something that I used as a, as an analogy or thing. So I said well, if I go back to back in those days, 2015 or 2016, we’re working on this, and I picked up a fi book off the shelf, and I was reading the book about 2035. AGI is achieved, and the story would be over the following, decades. And it would have that first chapter where everyone’s trying to figure things out. You’d get the chapter of ChatGPT coming out And then you would get to the chapter where the world was at a fork in the road, and the one that it picked was one where three or four or a handful of companies were going to create all of intelligence moving forward.Eiso Kant [00:06:21]: And when I thought about that story, it felt like a dystopian fi book, not a utopian fi book. And the reality is, I’m a utopian fi guy. Like, and so We took a step back and said, “Hey, can we play a role here?” Now it was easy for us to do so because we were not at the frontier.Eiso Kant [00:06:41]: If we were at the frontier, I don’t think we could have changed our mind. and I don’t mean this like it’s when the moment there’s too much capital involved, too much expectations, you’ve built up things, right? We’re a small team, just improving and improving. And so we knew that we could make that decision now, but it would be a lot harder to make as we got closer and closer to the frontier and caught up to others. And did a lot of soul-searching and a lot of conversations, and said, “No, this makes sense,” Even if there’s big unanswered questions, like how the hell do you build a business model with foundation models about open source? Big open-ended question that we do not fully have the answer to yet, right? At what point do you no longer wanna release open source models because misuse of models has, real potential risks associated with it? how is the government gonna respond to open source? but I think it all just came down to one thing, and I’ll stop the monologue, is the fact that I rather live in a world that has 100 foundation model companies than a world that has five, even if I was one of the five. And the smallest and most meaningful contribution we can make for 100 to exist is to open up our research and open up, like, our weights right now and figure out along the way how we can, like, do more.Neo-Labs, Model Choice, and the Token EconomySwyx [00:08:01]: Yeah. I think if anything, over the past three years, that has become a bit more true. you are one of a cohort of Neo labsEiso Kant [00:08:10]: YeahSwyx [00:08:10]: That people are now calling that. And, we’re, we’re doing this on the day that Thinky launched their, new m…

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