Investing Insights

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13 Charts on Q3’s Tech-Driven Stock Rally

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How Inflation, AI, and Budget Battles Will Shape the Stock Market in Q4 Oct 03, 2025

Show notes

Investors’ exuberance is fueling this year’s stock rally, but will key economic risks dampen the market’s mood? The current bull run has lifted stocks from their springtime lows to higher levels in autumn. The artificial intelligence boom is one of the big factors driving it. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is dealing with the challenging situation of balancing the weakening job market and stubborn inflation. The Fed cut interest rates for the first time in 2025 in the third quarter, but the path forward from here is less certain. Morningstar Inc Senior Markets Reporter Sarah Hansen discusses seven key market factors you should watch in Q4 2025.

Nvidia’s investment of up to $100 billion in ChatGPT creator OpenAI could shatter records. The big bet is helping feed two simple narratives about the AI era, according to Dan Kemp, chief research and investment officer at Morningstar Investment Management Europe. First, there’s too much investment in the technology, and booms tend to lead to busts. Second, AI has changed the rules of investing and returns. Kemp cautions investors to remember that there are a wide range of possible outcomes than these easy stories.

On this episode:

You examine the highs and lows during each quarter and write about it. What do you think are the biggest takeaways from Q3?

Stocks are climbing higher despite a lot of risks. What signals is the market ignoring, and could it be at its own peril?

The AI boom is driving what’s going on in the market. Mega-cap tech companies are making huge investments. Where’s the money going, and how long is this level of spending expected to continue?

The hot IPO market has benefited from AI. Some of the most successful IPOs this year involved the industry. Can you describe this revival?

The first interest rate cut of 2025 is in the books. The Federal Reserve pointed to the softening job market as one reason for the move. What are strategists telling you as the markets await the Fed’s next move?

Inflation is still not tamed and hovering above the Fed’s 2% target. There are expectations that tariffs could raise prices for a while. What are the outlooks from Morningstar and other strategists?

As the Fed cuts rates, short-term yields will come down. What about the rest of the bond market? Where do people see the risks?

The federal funding fight is continuing in Washington, D.C. Let’s timestamp this moment. It’s Tuesday, Sept. 30. The US government would shut down on Oct. 1 if there’s not an agreement. How does uncertainty like this affect the markets, and what should investors think?

Earnings season is coming up in a couple weeks. What is your team watching for?

What’s the takeaway for investors as we enter Q4?

We talked on last week’s Investing Insights about inflation. The Federal Reserve’s preferred tracker showed inflation slightly ticked up in August as forecasters expected. It also revealed consumer spending rose. What do you think that’s signaling about the US economy?

In this week’s Markets Brief column, you highlighted Nvidia’s potentially record-breaking investment. The chipmaker announced it would invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI. How should investors think about this deal?

New economic data is due out this week. What are you tracking for next week’s Markets Brief?

Read about topics from this episode.

Will the AI Boom in Semiconductor Stocks Continue?

What Investors Need to Know About the Steepening Yield Curve

The Fed’s ‘Difficult Situation’: Reading Between the Lines of the September Dot Plot

Forecasts for August PCE Report Shows Some Cooling, but Tariff Impacts Persist

What Investors Need to Know About a US Government Shutdown

Markets Brief: Nvidia’s AI Spending Spree Raises Boom and Bust Fears

What to watch from Morningstar.
Is Your Dividend Income at Risk? Here’s How to Spot Dividend Traps

Should You Hold Cash Investments After the Fed Cuts Interest Rates?

What You Need to Know Before Choosing a Stock ETF

Investing in AI? Here Are 6 Undervalued Stocks for Buy-and-Hold Investors

Read what our team is writing.

Sarah Hansen

Dan Kemp

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Not All Dividend Stocks Are Safe. Here’s How to Avoid Dividend Traps

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Is Your Dividend Income at Risk? Here’s How to Spot Dividend Traps Sep 26, 2025

Show notes

It might be tempting to buy dividend stocks with the highest yields, but not all dividend payers are safe. Those big payouts could be signaling that a company’s fundamentals are cracking. Looming financial risks could wreak havoc on income-focused investors’ portfolios. But there are ways to spot dividend traps. Morningstar Indexes strategist and columnist Dan Lefkovitz explains how to avoid the risks.

Both healthcare and consumer defensive sectors are lagging the broader stock market this year, but for different reasons.

Dan Kemp, chief research and investment officer at Morningstar Investment Management Europe, explored what’s behind it in this week’s Markets Brief column. He says consumer defensive stocks are falling from high valuations, while healthcare stocks are facing significant headwinds like politics and earnings growth. He reminds investors that’s why it’s important to understand not only what you own in your portfolio, but why you own it as well.

On this episode:

What is a dividend trap, and under what conditions do they tend to develop?

You and your team published research on dividend traps just before Dow Chemical DOW cut its dividend in half over the summer. How does your research explain what happened with Dow?

Other well-known brands have also slashed their dividend payouts since 2020. The list includes Shell, Walgreens, and Intel. What warning signs were these companies flashing before their cuts?

You have written about how income-focused investors can avoid dividend traps. Let’s start with step number one on how to spot them. What is the payout ratio, and what does it tell us about a company’s health?

The second step focuses on a company’s durable competitive advantage or economic moat. Can you describe what that reveals?

Your team weeds out dividend payers using a third step that relies on Distance to Default. How does that work, and what did you all find out?

How can investors protect their dividend income from risks? Would portfolio diversification help?

What’s the key takeaway to spot dividend traps?

We discussed on last week’s Investing Insights that you would focus on the market moves following the Fed’s quarter-point cut. How have the US dollar and bond prices reacted?

In this week’s Markets Brief column, you zoomed in on the lagging performance of healthcare and consumer defensive stocks. What’s important for investors to know?

New data on inflation from the Fed’s preferred tracker is set to come out Friday, September 26th. Inflation is hovering above the Fed’s 2% target. What are the markets’ expectations, and what would a surprise in the data mean for the near future?

Read about topics from this episode.

What Investors Can Learn from Dow’s 50% Dividend Cut

7 Things You May Not Know About Dividends

The 10 Best Dividend Stocks

Does Dividend Investing Still Work?

Construction Rules for the Morningstar Indexes Distance to Default

Markets Brief: AI Investment is Massive in a Cyclical Industry. Will This Time Be Different?

What to watch from Morningstar.
Should You Hold Cash Investments After the Fed Cuts Interest Rates?

What You Need to Know Before Choosing a Stock ETF

Investing in AI? Here Are 6 Undervalued Stocks for Buy-and-Hold Investors

Do Dividend Stocks Benefit From Non-US Revenue?

Read what our team is writing.

Dan Lefkovitz

Dan Kemp

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Why Cash Is Still King for Short-Term Goals

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Should You Hold Cash Investments After the Fed Cuts Interest Rates? Sep 19, 2025

Show notes

There’s a tug-of-war between investing in cash and long duration bonds in today’s interest environment. The longer-end of the yield curve may look more appealing since anticipation is building about interest rate cuts. Morningstar’s economics team and market watchers are predicting the Federal Reserve will lower rates more than once in the final months of 2025. What may matter more is the time horizon for your financial goals. Morningstar Inc Portfolio Strategist Amy Arnott has examined why for some investors, sticking with cash is a less risky and better approach.

Oracle’s transformation is serving as a reminder that big opportunities to invest in artificial intelligence still exist. The database provider’s expansion into being a cloud provider recently sparked a 42% jump in its stock price. That caught the attention of Dan Kemp, chief research and investment officer at Morningstar Investment Management Europe. The author of the Markets Brief says one of the big takeaways is that stocks like Oracle are making good use of AI, and investors should look beyond the popular names.

In next week’s Markets Brief, Dan will dive into how the Federal Reserve’s quarter-point rate cut feeds into changed opportunities and risks in the broader markets for the long term.

On this episode:

Let’s start with an explainer. What is cash?

Interest rates are a popular topic now. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its rate decision this afternoon. Morningstar’s economics team and market watchers are predicting lower rates. Should bond investors swap short-term Treasury bills for 20- to 30-year Treasury bonds?

Talk about why it could be a mistake for bond investors to assume the Fed will cut rates that match predictions.

In your article, Why Cash Is Still King for Short-Term Goals, you discussed a couple of reasons why cash yields still look good. Can you explain?

What are some of the trade-offs when holding cash?

Where are best places to invest cash if you need the money sometime within the next 12 months?

Are there any places where people might not want to keep their cash holdings?

And what about goals with a time horizon that’s a little bit longer—like two or three years?

What’s the takeaway for investors weighing whether to take on the risk of long-duration bonds?

Read about topics from this episode.

7 Reasons to Stop Freaking Out Over the Fed

How to Use Taxable Bonds in a Portfolio

The Best Bond Funds

How to Use Cash in a Portfolio

The 4 Rules for Cash: How to Manage Your Money the Smart Way

Markets Brief: Can a Bumper Fed Rate Cut Give Stocks Another Boost?

What to watch from Morningstar.
What You Need to Know Before Choosing a Stock ETF

Investing in AI? Here Are 6 Undervalued Stocks for Buy-and-Hold Investors

Do Dividend Stocks Benefit From Non-US Revenue?

This Classic Investment Strategy Is Still Alive in 2025

Read what our team is writing.

Amy C. Arnott

Dan Kemp

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The Hidden Risks in New ETFs

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What You Need to Know Before Choosing a Stock ETF Sep 12, 2025

Show notes

Exchange-traded fund launches have continued to accelerate, but not every shiny new strategy is worth owning. Good investment strategies can compensate investors with an appropriate return for the risks they take on. What kinds of ETFs are able to deliver over the long term, and which ones fall short? Dan Sotiroff is joining me today to explain the hidden risks in stock ETFs and what investors should look out for. Dan is a senior manager research analyst for Morningstar Research Services and the editor of Morningstar’s ETFInvestor newsletter.

Can you talk about the idea that ETFs should be able to compensate investors for the risk they take on? What is an “appropriate level of return”?

When looking at the risk and return profiles of ETFs, the term “active risk” often comes up. Can you give us a definition?

What kinds of funds have the lowest active risk?

Can you give an example of two ETFs that appear similar but take on different levels of risk?

You’ve written that “any stock ETF with fewer than 100 holdings is a red flag.” Why is that?

Does the management style of the fund make a difference for concentrated funds? Would a passive, index-tracking ETF run into the same issues as an actively managed ETF?

Thematic ETFs are a popular example of concentrated portfolios with high active risk. How have they performed?

Do investors tend to miss the timing on thematic funds? It seems like strong returns tend to be short-lived.

At Morningstar, we often talk about fees as a predictor of performance. Do you see the same thing here?

Should investors always choose a fund that takes on predictable risk? Or are there cases where higher active risk is worth it?

What is one takeaway you have for investors that are trying to choose an ETF?

Read about topics from this episode.

Subscribe to Morningstar’s ETFInvestor newsletter.

The Best ETFs and How They Fit in Your Portfolio

Morningstar′s Guide to ETF Investing

Passive Funds Beat Active Amid This Year’s Market Volatility

What to watch from Morningstar.
Investing in AI? Here Are 6 Undervalued Stocks for Buy-and-Hold Investors

Do Dividend Stocks Benefit From Non-US Revenue?

This Classic Investment Strategy Is Still Alive in 2025

These 16 Standout Funds Are Making Big Bets. Do They Fit in Your Investment Portfolio?

Read what our team is writing.

Daniel Sotiroff

Margaret Giles

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Investing in AI? Here Are 6 Undervalued Stocks for Buy-and-Hold Investors Sep 05, 2025

Show notes

Nvidia counts several of its Magnificent Seven pals as customers buying its sophisticated AI chips. And the world’s most valuable company says it could earn even more if geopolitical tensions between the US and China eased. But investors are debating whether the market is experiencing an AI boom or AI bubble. How should buy-and-hold investors think about investing in AI—are there any undervalued stocks left today? Dave Sekera is chief US market strategist at Morningstar Research Services and co-host of The Morning Filter podcast.

Learn about the new Morningstar Medalist Ratings for semiliquid funds during a live webinar on Morningstar’s YouTube channel on Wednesday, Sept. 10. CEO Kunal Kapoor and ETF and Passive Strategies Research Director Bryan Armour will discuss what investors should know about private assets and the first funds to earn the new rating on the Investors First series.

On this episode:

Welcome back to Investing Insights, Dave. Nvidia recently wrapped up the Magnificent Seven’s earnings season showing AI spending is still strong. What does this mean for the tech-driven stock market rally?

Do you think investors’ expectations for these mega-cap names are unreasonably high? Why or why not?

Nvidia is sitting at the center of a geopolitical rivalry between US and China. The company says they didn’t sell its sophisticated AI chips to China in the previous quarter, and that a $50 billion opportunity exists. What do you make of this bottleneck and its impact?

Many market watchers are divided over whether the current environment is an AI boom or AI bubble. Can you talk about Morningstar’s outlook?

How should buy-and-hold investors think about investing in artificial intelligence?

What are the most undervalued AI stocks right now?

What do you think about the big bets Wall Street and Main Street are making on AI? What do you think individual investors should keep in mind?

How is AI transforming Morningstar?

Read about topics from this episode.

5 Stocks to Buy Before Their Big Discounts Disappear

Marvell Earnings: Buy the Dip and Focus on the Fundamentals

Nvidia Earnings: No Signs of a Slowdown in Demand for AI Chips

These Are the Best Mag Seven Stocks to Consider for AI Investing

The Best AI Stocks to Buy Now

Investors First: Evolving Expectations and Expanding Access

What to watch from Morningstar.
Do Dividend Stocks Benefit From Non-US Revenue?

This Classic Investment Strategy Is Still Alive in 2025

These 16 Standout Funds Are Making Big Bets. Do They Fit in Your Investment Portfolio?

Market Volatility: Investors Are Seeking Safety in Gold ETFs. Is It Working?

Read what our team is writing.

David Sekera

Kunal Kapoor

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Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstar...

Subscribe to Morningstar’s DividendInvestor newsletter.

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Do Dividend Stocks Benefit From Non-US Revenue? Aug 29, 2025

Show notes

The revenue of US dividend stocks isn’t necessarily made in America. A portfolio of popular dividend-paying stocks is likely exposed to currency or geopolitical risks. That’s due to international revenue exposure: Some US-based companies earn 50% or more of their money outside of the country. A recent analysis of 35 dividend-paying stocks in Morningstar’s DividendInvestor newsletter found several well-known names generate sizable revenue overseas. So, how should investors balance US vs. non-US equity exposure? Morningstar’s DividendInvestor newsletter editor David Harrell explains what investors should know.

Learn about Morningstar’s new Medalist Ratings for semiliquid funds during a live webinar on Morningstar’s YouTube channel on Wednesday, September 10th. CEO Kunal Kapoor and Global Head of Manager Research Laura Lutton will discuss what investors should know about private assets and the first funds to earn the new rating on the Investors First series.

On this episode:

You recently analyzed the international revenue exposure of dozens of dividend-paying stocks. But this wasn’t the first time. Why did you decide to revisit this?

Let’s dissect the investigation. How did you choose which stocks to focus on, and what was the criteria?

How did the recent results compare to the findings in 2021? Were there any surprises?

Let’s zoom in on the revenue. Which dividend stocks increased or decreased their US revenue exposure?

Morningstar analysts consider some of these dividend payers undervalued. Let’s first focus on names with more US revenue exposure. Who are they?

Which companies with more international revenue exposure are undervalued?

International stocks are having a long-awaited banner year versus US stocks. Are investors whose only international revenue exposure is these US-based stocks benefiting from this international rally?

How should investors balance US vs. non-US equity exposure in their portfolios? That is, what if investors looking at their portfolio see that they have home-country bias? What should they consider from a diversification standpoint?

Welcome to Investing Insights, Kunal. Let’s get started with you telling the audience a bit about your career here at Morningstar. It started back in the late 90s, right?

Your series, Investors First, is airing live on YouTube for the first time on September 10th. Can you tell us about the mission behind it? What are you hoping to achieve with the series?

It’s important to have these conversations with investors. What can Morningstar do to further empower them?

Investors have experienced a lot of short-term volatility this year. How do folks stay focused on their long-term goals?

Read about topics from this episode.

Why 2025 Is the Year to Invest in International Stocks

Why It’s Not Too Late to Add International Exposure

What Investors Can Learn from Dow’s 50% Dividend Cut

Where to Find Bargain Stocks in an Expensive Market

Watch more from the Investors First series:

Investors First: Evolving Expectations and Expanding Access

Where Should Investors Look Next Among Economic Mixed Messages?

Investors First: Navigating the Rise of Active ETFs in a Competitive Market

Investors First: The Convergence of Public and Private Markets

What to watch from Morningstar.
This Classic Investment Strategy Is Still Alive in 2025

These 16 Standout Funds Are Making Big Bets. Do They Fit in Your Investment Portfolio?

Market Volatility: Investors Are Seeking Safety in Gold ETFs. Is It Working?

Why Bonds Belong in Your Diversified Portfolio (Even Now)

Read what our team is writing.

David Harrell

Kunal Kapoor

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Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstar...

The 60/40 Portfolio: A 150-Year Markets Stress Test

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This Classic Investment Strategy Is Still Alive in 2025 Aug 22, 2025

Show notes

Is the 60/40 portfolio living up to its reputation of resilience this year? The merit of a classic portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds has been a matter of debate in recent years. A diversified 60/40 strategy failed to protect investors in 2022’s broad market crash—in fact, an all-stock portfolio would have held up better. However, a historical deep dive from Morningstar concluded that the tried-and-true approach lessened the pain in almost all of the worst market crashes in 150 years better than an all-stock portfolio. Morningstar Inc Portfolio Strategist Amy Arnott discusses the 60/40 portfolio’s ups and downs and its performance in 2025.

On this episode:
What is a 60/40 portfolio, and why is it popular?

We often hear claims that the 60/40 portfolio is “dead” or obsolete. Why does it get criticized so much?

Some of that criticism flared up in 2022. Why was the performance so bad for the 60/40 portfolio that year?

Volatility has rocked the markets in 2025. How has the classic investment strategy done so far this year?

Are there any asset classes that have performed better so far in 2025? Why?

And which ones have struggled?

Interest rates are sitting above 4%, but market watchers are anticipating the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September. What could that mean for the fixed-income part of the 60/40 portfolio?

How do you think the 60/40 portfolio will perform over the next few years?

Should people still rely on the 60/40 portfolio, or is another strategy better like the 70/30 or 50/30/20, which can be a mix of stocks, bonds, and alternatives?

The tried-and-true strategy has proved its worth. So, what’s the final takeaway for current retirees, future retirees, or anyone seeking less risk?

Read about topics from this episode.

Is the 60/40 Portfolio Feeling ’22?

What We’ve Learned From 150 Years of Stock Market Crashes

How Does Your 60/40 Portfolio Allocation Compare With the Pros?

Why 2025 Is the Year to Invest in International Stocks

Why It’s Not Too Late to Add International Exposure

Why Holding Assets Outside the US Dollar Has Paid Off in 2025

How to Use Gold in Your Portfolio

Portfolio Diversification Is Winning in 2025

What to watch from Morningstar.
These 16 Standout Funds Are Making Big Bets. Do They Fit in Your Investment Portfolio?

Market Volatility: Investors Are Seeking Safety in Gold ETFs. Is It Working?

Why Bonds Belong in Your Diversified Portfolio (Even Now)

Covered-Call ETFs Are Booming. But Not All Yield Is Good

Read what our team is writing.

Amy Arnott

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Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstar...

How Smart People Screen for Funds

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These 16 Standout Funds Are Making Big Bets. Do They Fit in Your Investment Portfolio? Aug 15, 2025

Show notes

It can sometimes seem like there’s an endless number of mutual funds for you to invest in. But not all of them are a right fit for your portfolio—and some aren’t worthy investments at all. A popular feature from Morningstar’s FundInvestor newsletter greatly shrinks the list and can help you home in on the winners. Russ Kinnel is the newsletter editor and senior principal of ratings for Morningstar Research Services. And he’s here to brag about his thrilling funds list.

On this episode:

Let’s begin with the idea behind the thrilling funds list. How did this get started, and what’s the mission?

You start with thousands of fund share classes. How do you narrow the list to a few dozen, and what are you looking for?

Thirty-three funds met your high standards and made the cut, and they’re all repeats. Did that surprise you?

What kept some funds off this year’s list?

A select group of these standouts are making big bets. Let’s start with the only thrilling fund from the diversified emerging-markets category.

A trio of foreign large growth funds from Fidelity are focusing heavily on financials and industrials. What’s their story, and what makes each of these unique?

Can you describe the funds that are wagering big time on the tech sector?

The healthcare sector has struggled this year. But some funds from Vanguard, Fidelity, and Dodge & Cox appear ready to benefit from a rebound, right? Talk about those funds.

Where should fixed-income investors look if they’re tweaking that side of their portfolio?

Which income and dividend-focused funds are outshining their category peers?

And finally, how can the audience test the funds in their portfolio against your thrilling list?

Read about topics from this episode.

The Thrilling 33

Stop Screening Funds This Way

Worried About a Market Selloff? These 10 Funds Reduce Portfolio Risk

The Big Secret to Long-Term Investment Success

Holy Smokes! These Funds Could Get Barbecued

4 New Funds on Our Radar

Morningstar Medalist Rating for Funds

What to watch from Morningstar.
Market Volatility: Investors Are Seeking Safety in Gold ETFs. Is It Working?

Why Bonds Belong in Your Diversified Portfolio (Even Now)

Covered-Call ETFs Are Booming. But Not All Yield Is Good

This Dividend Investing Strategy Deserves a Second Look

Read what our team is writing.

Russel Kinnel

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Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/morningstar...