Insights Now

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The future of globalization Nov 09, 2022

Show notes

The global pandemic, supply chain problems and heightened geopolitical tensions from Russia's war in Ukraine have all raised questions about whether the long trend towards globalization is being thrown into reverse. Our 2023 Long Term Capital Market Assumptions, available now, features a paper that tackles the future of globalization. In this episode, Stephanie Aliaga interviews two of the authors from the paper, Dr. David Kelly and Kerry Craig, to discuss the potential future paths of globalization, and implications of a multi-polar world order for the global economy, inflation and valuations.

Episode topics: History and drivers of globalization (1:18), Russia-Ukraine (8:00), future paths of globalization (9:55), global energy transition (16:40), trade in goods vs. services (19:08), implications for the dollar (21:50), implications for inflation (24:15), regional winners and loser (26:45), China (30:32), valuations and sector outlook (32:15).

We also encourage you to also read the full report, linked here.

Cross-currents for corporate profits Oct 25, 2022

Show notes

In this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by David Lebovitz, Global Market Strategist for J.P. Morgan Asset Management, for a discussion on the outlook for U.S. equities and what investors can expect from 3Q22 earnings season. Higher inflation, higher interest rates and slowing consumer demand have all posed considerable headwinds to U.S. equities and contributed to the large selloffs experienced in markets this year. As third-quarter earnings season kicks off, investors are hoping to gain insight into how earnings, revenues and margins are holding up as the macro environment gets rockier. While the risks dampening investor sentiment right now are very real, valuations have also come down significantly, paving the way for potentially very attractive expected returns going forward.

Europe’s energy crisis and the UK response Oct 06, 2022

Show notes

In an already challenging year for markets, the energy crisis in Europe and recent fiscal actions by the UK government have rattled market sentiment and caused further disruption to currency and global bond markets. A higher reliance on Russian supply has put Europe in a particularly vulnerable position as winter approaches, with electricity prices soaring and increased risk of gas shortages. All of this, and its consequences for consumer spending and business confidence, has increased the likelihood of a near-term recession in Europe. On today's episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Hugh Gimber, Global Market Strategist, to shed some light on these issues and the outlook going forward for the UK and Europe.

The Fed: Hiking up a hill of uncertainty Sep 27, 2022

Show notes

This episode kicks off our fifth season of Insights Now. Over the course of this season, Dr. David Kelly will sit down with a slate of market strategists and subject matter experts to discuss topics such as the implications of aggressive Fed tightening, the European energy crisis, equity market volatility, and the future of globalization to try to provide some insight into investing in this very stormy climate.

On the episode, we tackle important questions for investors surrounding the outlook for the Federal Reserve. After a slow start, the Fed is now reacting very aggressively to higher inflation, boosting interest rates across the board and threatening the economy with recession. As markets have come under intense pressure from this increased hawkishness, it is an opportune time to have a conversation with our fixed income strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Jordan Jackson on positioning portfolios amidst this environment of higher rates, elevated inflation and market volatility.

Investing in Troubled Times Jul 20, 2022

Show notes

Investors have had a challenging year so far, however, while outlook remains cloudy, investors should remember that the U.S. has always been an economy of long summers and short winters. While winter may be coming soon, much of the "bad news" might already be priced into markets, and investors may be wise to take advantage of the correction in valuations to position portfolios for the long summer, or expansion, ahead. For the last episode this season, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Jack Manley, Global Market Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, for an insightful conversation on navigating investing in troubled times.

For additional resources please visit Principles for successful long-term investing. We'd also love to hear your thoughts and any suggestions you may have on our podcast as we plan for our next season. You can reach out to our team, Market Insights, at mi.questions@jpmorgan.com.

Alternatives in a higher rate, slower growth world Jun 30, 2022

Show notes

2022 has been a challenging year for most public asset classes, leaving many investors at odds on how to position portfolios, protect against inflation and identify areas for potential excess returns going forward. While markets have been more challenging, the need for income, capital appreciation and capital preservation has not changed. That’s where alternative investments may provide some solutions.

On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by David Lebovitz, Global Market Strategist, to discuss the outlook for Alternatives in an environment with higher rates and slower growth.

For more information on the Guide to Alternatives, please visit our website here.

The Labor Market: Cyclical strength and structural change Jun 09, 2022

Show notes

Today, as investors mull the increasing risk of a U.S. recession, the strength in the labor market can be a double-edged sword. On one end, a healthy labor market with red-hot demand for workers could protect the economy from high unemployment in the next recession. On the other end, too-hot of a labor market gives the Fed a greater need to act aggressively to tame inflation and prevent an overheating economy, which very well might push the economy into a recession. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is interviewed by Stephanie Aliaga, Research Analyst, to discuss the latest jobs report, the outlook for the labor market and our latest thoughts on the risk of a recession in 2022 or 2023. For more insights, please visit our On the Minds of Investors webpage.

The U.S. Fiscal and Midterms Outlook May 26, 2022

Show notes

As investors mull recession risks, they will also soon have to grapple with the midterm elections and how changes in politics may cause uncertainty in the economic outlook. As rates have risen on the back of Fed tightening, does this pose an issue for the government's ability to service the debt? After two years of extraordinary fiscal stimulus, what is outlook for fiscal spending going forward and what are its implications for investors?

On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Meera Pandit, Global Market Strategist, to discuss politics and the fiscal outlook ahead of the midterm elections, in a conversation moderated by Stephanie Aliaga, Research Analyst.

Unpacking the Tumultuous Equity Market May 12, 2022

Show notes

The equity markets have seen a tumultuous and fairly disappointing few months in 2022. Investor sentiment has turned extremely bearish due to a land war in Ukraine, a more hawkish and aggressive Fed, and rising and persistent inflation. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Andrew Tyler, Head of U.S. Market Intelligence, to discuss the current state of equity markets, the factors driving recent volatility, the takeaways form 1Q22 earnings season and the further implications of the Fed's rate hiking cycle on equity markets.

For additional insights on the 1Q22 earnings season, check out our latest bulletin written by David Lebovitz and Nimish Vyas.

Real Estate Booms, Busts and Structural Change Apr 21, 2022

Show notes

While the 21st Century has seen a wide variety of housing markets with massive booms and busts, never in all these years, have there been so few properties on the market. This has fueled a surge in home prices that might look reminiscent of the 2006 housing boom. On this episode, Dr. David Kelly is joined by Mike Kelly, Head of US Real Estate, to discuss the current housing market, the surge in housing costs, and the long term impacts of the pandemic on certain real estate sectors. For additional insights, visit our On the Minds of Investors webpage.

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