Show notes
Key Insights!:
* Hexapodia!
* Drop the embargo now!
* There is nothing that enables an authoritarian régime—or, indeed, pretty much any type of régime—hang together other than an implacable external enemy.
* For the Cuban military-bureaucratic junta-oligarchy, that implacable external enemy consists of the Cuban exiles in Miami and their descendants
References:
* Alexa van Sickle (2014): Viva la Revolución: Cuban Farmers Re-Gain Control Over Land: ‘As the state loosens its grip on food product… https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2014/mar/11/cuba-agricultural-revolution-farmers>
* Damian Cave: Raúl Castro Thanks U.S., but Reaffirms Communist Rule in Cuba https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/21/world/americas/castro-thanks-us-but-affirms-cubas-communist-rule.html>
* Marianne Ward and John Devereux (2010): The Road Not Taken: Pre-Revolutionary Cuban Living Standards in Comparative Perspective https://web.archive.org/web/20121217122436/http://econweb.umd.edu/~davis/eventpapers/CUBA.pdf>
* Brian Latell (2005): After Fidel: The Inside Story of Castro’s Régime and Cuba’s Next Leader New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2005 https://books.google.com/books?id=GESwBAAAQBAJ>
* Carmelo Mesa-Lago (2019): There’s Only One Way Out for Cuba’s Dismal Economy https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/28/opinion/cuba-economy.html>
* Carlos Eire: Raúl Castro Leaving Power Won’t Bring Change to Cuba Anytime Soon https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/04/20/raul-castro-leave-power-cuba-wont-bring-change/>
* Noah Smith: Why Cuba Is Having an Economic Crisis https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-cuba-is-having-an-economic-crisis>
&, of course:
* Vernor Vinge: A Fire Upon the Deep https://books.google.com/books?id=fCCWWgZ7d6UC>
Notes:
Post-Fidel Timeline:
2008 February - Raul Castro takes over as president, days after Fidel announces his retirement.
2008 May - Bans on private ownership of mobile phones and computers lifted.
2008 June - Plans are announced to abandon salary equality. The move is seen as a radical departure from the orthodox Marxist economic principles observed since the 1959 revolution. EU lifts diplomatic sanctions imposed on Cuba in 2003 over crackdown on dissidents.
2008 July - In an effort to boost Cuba's lagging food production and reduce dependence on food imports, the government relaxes restrictions on the amount of land available to private farmers.
2008 September - Hurricanes Gustav and Ike inflict worst storm damage in Cuba's recorded history, with 200,000 left homeless and their crops destroyed.
2008 October - State oil company says estimated 20bn barrels in offshore fields, being double previous estimates.
2008 November - Russian President Dmitry Medvedev visits. Two countries conclude new trade and economic accords in sign of strengthening relations. Raul Castro pays reciprocal visit to Russia in January 2009. Chinese President Hu Jintao visits to sign trade and investment accords, including agreements to continue buying Cuban nickel and sugar.
2008 December - Russian warships visit Havana for first time since end of Cold War. Government says 2008 most difficult year for economy since collapse of Soviet Union. Growth nearly halved to 4.3%.
2009 March - Two leading figures from Fidel era, Cabinet Secretary Carlos Lage and Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque, resign after admitting "errors". First government reshuffle since resignation of Fidel Castro. US Congress votes to lift Bush Administration restrictions on Cuban-Americans visiting Havana and sending back money.
2009 April - US President Barack Obama says he wants a new beginning with Cuba.
2009 May - Government unveils austerity programme to try to cut energy use and offset impact of global financial crisis.
2009 June - Organisation of American States (OAS) votes to lift ban on Cuban membership imposed in 1962. Cuba welcomes decision, but says it has no plans to rejoin.
2009 July - Cuba signs agreement with Russia allowing oil exploration in Cuban waters of Gulf of Mexico.
2010 February - Political prisoner Orlando Zapata Tamayo dies after 85 days on hunger strike.
2010 May - Wives and mothers of political prisoners are allowed to hold demonstration after archbishop of Havana, Jaime Ortega, intervenes on their behalf.
2010 July - President Castro agrees to free 52 dissidents under a deal brokered by the Church and Spain. Several go into exile.
2010 September - Radical plans for massive government job cuts to revive the economy. Analysts see proposals as biggest private sector shift since the 1959 revolution.
2011 January - US President Barack Obama relaxes restrictions on travel to Cuba. Havana says the measures don't go far enough.
2011 March - Last two political prisoners detained during 2003 crackdown are released.
2011 April - Communist Party Congress says it will look into possibility of allowing Cuban citizens to travel abroad as tourists.
2011 August - National Assembly approves economic reforms aimed at encouraging private enterprise and reducing state bureaucracy.
2011 November - Cuba passes law allowing individuals to buy and sell private property for first time in 50 years.
2011 December - The authorities release 2,500 prisoners, including some convicted of political crimes, as part of an amnesty ahead of a papal visit.
2012 March - Pope Benedict visits, criticising the US trade embargo on Cuba and calling for greater rights on the island.
2012 April - Cuba marks Good Friday with a public holiday for the first time since recognition of religious holidays stopped in 1959.
2012 June - Cuba re-imposes customs duty on all food imports in effort to curb selling of food aid sent by Cubans abroad on the commercial market. Import duties had been liberalised in 2008 after series of hurricanes caused severe shortages.
2012 October - Spanish politician Angel Carromero is jailed for manslaughter over the death of high-profile Catholic dissident Oswaldo Paya. Mr Carromero was driving the car when, according to the authorities, it crashed into a tree. Mr Paya's family say the car was rammed off the road after he had received death threats. The government abolishes the requirement for citizens to buy expensive exit permits when seeking to travel abroad. Highly-qualified professionals such as doctors, engineers and scientists will still require permission to travel, in order to prevent a brain drain.
2012 November - President Raul Castro says the eastern province of Santiago was hard hit by Hurricane Sandy, with 11 people dead and more than 188,000 homes damaged. A United Nations report says Sandy destroyed almost 100,000 hectares of crops.
2013 February - The National Assembly re-elects Raul Castro as president. He says he will stand down at the end of his second term in 2018, by which time he will be 86.
2013 July - Five prominent veteran politicians, including Fidel Castro ally and former parliament leader Ricardo Alarcon, are removed from the Communist Party's Central Committee in what President Raul Castro calls a routine change of personnel.
2014 January - First phase of a deepwater sea port is inaugurated by Brazil and Cuba at Mariel, a rare large foreign investment project on the island.
2014 March - Cuba agrees to a European Union invitation to begin talks to restore relations and boost economic ties, on condition of progress on human rights. The EU suspended ties in 1996.
2014 July - Russian President Vladimir Putin visits during a tour of Latin America, says Moscow will cancel billions of dollars of Cuban debt from Soviet times. Chinese President Xi Jinping visits, signs bilateral accords.
2014 September/October - Cuba sends hundreds of frontline medical staff to West African countries hit by the Ebola epidemic.
2014 December - In a surprise development, US President Barack Obama and Cuba's President Raul Castro announce moves to normalise diplomatic relations between the two countries, severed for more than 50 years.
2015 January - Washington eases some travel and trade restrictions on Cuba.
Two days of historic talks between the U…
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