Show notes
It was a legendary Tesla conference call!! Elon Musk sounded insanely focused and dialed in as he explained Tesla is planning to launch an self-driving robotaxi service in Austin in June of THIS YEAR. He also clarified he expects Tesla to launch full self driving in many regions across the US in 2025. Additionally, with Optimus and Cybercab Elon retierates he believes not only that Tesla will be the world's most valuable company ... but more valuable than the world's next 5 largest companies combined. Wow. As crazy as it sounds, it just might be true! What are your thoughts on the call? I left feeling very very bullish, feeling the confidence from Elon and the team.
0:00 Intro
0:44 Elon Opening Remarks
13:29 SAY Retail Questions
22:37 Analyst Questions
25:04 Gali Final Thoughts/Rant
My X: / gfilche
HyperChange Patreon :) / hyperchange
Disclaimer: I'm long Tesla stock and nothing in this show is financial advice.
Here are my notes from the conference call (note, may not be accurate!!):
Tesla Q4 2024 Earnings Call Notes
INTRO- ELON OPENING REMARKS
-Q4 set record, delivered cars at rate of almost 2M cars/year
-Model Y best-selling vehicle of any kind on earth
(elon focused and talking quickly)
-10Xing on autonomy, not doubling
-many investments made this year that will bear immense fruit in the future, for AI
-see a path for Tesla to the worlds most valuable company by far, worth more than the next 5 companies combined, difficult but achievable path
-overwhelmingly due to autonomous vehicles and autonomous robots
-setting up for an epic 2026, and ridiculously good 2027 and 2028
-meeting FSD now is like meeting a toddler
-human intuition is linear, we’re seeing exponential progress
-#1 recommendation is try it
-typical passenger car has 10 hours of use out of 168, when its autonomous, itll be used for 55 hours a week … can deliver packages in the middle of thenight, or supply restaurants, all hours of the day or night. 5X increase in utility
-more on self driving, continued improvements in safety numbers, much safer to use FSD
-V14 will be another big step from V13
-launched CORTEX training cluster at Giga Austin, big step for FSD, continue to invest in training needs
-Optimus training needs are about 10X what’s needed for the car
-cost of training is dropping dramatically over time
-Optimus has potential to be north of $10T in revenue, can put a lot training compute into that situation, even pumping $500B into it would be a good deal
-future very different from the past, incredible inflection point in human history
-proof is in the pudding
-launching in June this year in Austin, already have cars moving autonomously in Fremont, thousands of cars per day driving, soon in Austin then elsewhere in the world
-toe in the water at first to make sure everything is cool, but we have a general solution for autonomy , then put a few more toes, then a foot. Safety of the general public and those in the car as the top priority
-with regard to Optimus, making insane revenue projections that sound insane, i realize that. But i think they will prove to be accurate
-several thousand bots made this year, they will be doing useful things by the end of this year, im confidence, production design one at the tesla factories, then will learn for production design two
-ramp optimus production faster than anything has ever launched, doesn’t take very many years before we’er making 100M of these things per year , 500% growth per year
-tried using all these suppliers to get it to build Optimus, but nothing worked, had to build it internally from first principles, the hand is increibdle
-long term Optimus will be the value of the company
-back to Energy,/earth,
-energy storage is a big deal, becoming more important, enables far greater energy output to the grid than is currently possible.
-grid has no storage, designed for peak storage, lots of waste
-once you have grid energy storage, the potential of the grid is unlocked, at least double
-this will drive demand of battery packs as to as much as we can possibly make
-shanghai factory starting operation, starting another factory
-cant shoot our selves in the foot, battery capacity can only go into storage or mobility, so always making that tradeoff
-demand for total Gigawatt hours for batteries, transportation or stationary will grow in a very big way over time
2025 a pivotal year for tesla, launch of full self driving, biggest year in tesla history, maybe even bigger than first car or model s, 3 or y … probably most important year in tesla’s history
I don’t even know who is in 2nd place in real world AI, would need a telescope to see them
for rest of notes see pinned comment below!!!
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