Hidden Forces

Latest Episodes:

Emerging Markets & the Turkish Lira: Assessing the Risks & Opportunities | Paul McNamara Nov 23, 2020

Show notes

In Episode 165 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Paul McNamara, an Investment Director at global asset manager GAM who serves as the company's lead manager on hedge fund, emerging market bond and currency long-only strategies.

The first half of this conversation focuses on the macro forces driving EM overall, including how the latest vaccines could affect the global recovery and the service and export sectors in emerging markets, the global debt picture and its impact on economic recovery, the resumption of trade, etc.

The second half of our conversation focuses exclusively on one emerging market country in particular: Turkey. Turkey is a uniquely important country, not least because of its geostrategic positioning as a gateway between east and west, straddling multiple important theatres of conflict, diplomacy, and trade that matter greatly to all the major powers, including the United States.

What happens to Turkey's economy, the country's ability to service its debts, and the value of its currency are materially important for its geopolitical stability and for the stability of its neighbors and NATO allies.

To that effect, we examine some of the latest government-family drama in Turkey involving the president's son-in-law Berat Albayrak and the significance of his ouster as Minister of Finance and Treasury, along with the implications for Turkey's economy. We also discuss the recent 475 basis point rate hike by the Turkish central bank and what this means for the economy, domestic bank lending, and the value of the Lira going forward.

Lastly, given the turmoil in relations between Turkey, the US, and Europe, it's an open question as to how an incoming Biden administration will deal with this important NATO ally and if sanctions could be used against Ankara in the event that diplomatic headway isn't made and Turkey's president continues to go his own way on issues that are vital to both the US and Europe.

You can access the afterthought segment, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.

If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:

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Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Episode Recorded on 11/19/2020

The Long (and Short) of it: A Cynic's Take on Markets & Investing | Jim Chanos Nov 19, 2020

Show notes

In Episode 164 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with legendary short-seller Jim Chanos, founder of Kynikos Associates, about the art and science of selling short.

What is short-selling? What does it mean to sell something short? How does one learn to do it successfully? These are just some of the questions that Demetri and Jim explore in their two-hour-long conversation on markets, politics, and life. Demetri asks Jim for his philosophy on investing and why value-oriented allocators have had a difficult time profiting during the later stages of this bull market. A vocal critic of corporate excess and malfeasance, Chanos also offers his view on what a Biden administration will mean for financial regulation, capital markets, equity valuations, and the broader economy. The two also dissect the business models and prospects of companies like Tesla and Uber and consider the value proposition of Bitcoin amid its extraordinary rise in recent weeks. They end with a conversation about history and what we might come to expect from the future by looking into the past.

This is yet another excellent, engaging, and profoundly eye-opening conversation in a series of such discussions that we have released in recent weeks. We hope you enjoy it!

You can access the episode overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page. All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.

If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:

Write us a review on Apple Podcasts

Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at https://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Episode Recorded on 11/17/2020

Ten Lessons for a Post-Pandemic World | Fareed Zakaria Nov 16, 2020

Show notes

In Episode 163 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with CNN host and bestselling author Fareed Zakaria, about his book "Ten Lessons for a Post-Pandemic World."

The two explore a wide range of economic, political, social, & geopolitical issues facing America and the world in 2020. They discuss the outcome of the US election and its implications for the republican and democratic parties. Fareed shares his thoughts on what he believes are the major foreign policy challenges currently facing the United States and how a Biden administration will differ in its approach to meeting them. Zakaria also provides lengthy commentary on the news media, censorship, Big Tech, the future of US-China relations, the fate of globalization, the rise of illiberal democracy, and much, much more.

If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:

Write us a review on Apple Podcasts

Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Episode Recorded on 11/10/2020

Making Sense of Election 2020 and Its Aftermath | Matt Taibb Nov 06, 2020

Show notes

In Episode 162 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Matt Taibbi, a contributing editor for Rolling Stone, co-host of the "Useful Idiots" podcast, and author of several, best-selling books on politics, finance, media, and culture.

The two discuss the state of the US presidential election and speculate about what may have contributed to Trump's outperformance, how this election may eventually draw to a close, and when we will know for sure who the winner is.

In the overtime, Demetri and Matt discuss what a post-Trump presidency may look like in the event that he loses, the dangerous role played by tech platforms during this election, and how we may all find ourselves in a much darker place before 2024.

If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:

Write us a review on Apple Podcasts

Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Episode Recorded on 11/05/2020

Limits and Consequences of Ponzi Economics on Politics, Markets, & Society Nov 02, 2020

Show notes

In Episode 161 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas plays an interview he recently gave to Sebastien Couture and Friederike Ernst on Epicenter.TV. This is a wide-ranging, macro conversation focused on markets, politics, geopolitics, and crypto.

If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:

Write us a review on Apple Podcasts

Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Episode Recorded on 09/30/2020

Rise of a New Kleptocracy: How Dirty Money is Conquering the World | Tom Burgis Oct 26, 2020

Show notes

In Episode 160 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Tom Burgis, an investigations correspondent at the Financial Times who is also the author of Kletopia, a book that chronicles the world of dirty money, with its complex web of criminals, money launderers, and politicians who enable it.

In recent decades, we have witnessed in the West the rise of a new kleptocracy that knows no boundaries and obeys few laws, which is enabled by a sort of political consensus to loot. This looting has become so pervasive that the money extracted by its members is enough to buy the political power needed to change the laws and loot some more. It's a self-perpetuating cycle of fraud, criminality, and widespread corruption of the very systems of liberal, democratic capitalism that these kleptocrats depend upon for their survival.

Unfortunately, the conduits through which we learn about this phenomenon are themselves often held captive, to one degree or another, by these same forces. The more obvious their looting becomes and the more our elected officials choose to ignore or divert our attention away, the more radicalized and susceptible the electorates become to the promises of candidates who seek to fill the vacuum of trust left by our politicians with power.

In their conversation today, Demetri and Tom discuss the nature of this problem and why it poses such a serious threat to the very systems that it seeks to exploit.

If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:

Write us a review on Apple Podcasts

Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Episode Recorded on 10/19/2020

The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare | Chris Brose Oct 19, 2020

Show notes

In Episode 159 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Chris Brose, fmr. Staff Director of the Senate Armed Services Committee, a fmr. speechwriter to two Secretaries of State, and the current Head of Strategy at Anduril Industries, a defense product company working at the bleeding edge of innovation in defense strategy, procurement, and development.

This is a conversation about the story that the American public tells itself about the strength and primacy of American military power and how that story has increasingly fallen out of step with the reality of how our military operates, the technologies it has at its disposal, and the threat that countries like Russia and China pose to America's battle-networks, systems, and platforms. How do we navigate these challenges while still trying to maintain peace and security both at home and abroad? How is the nature of warfare changing, and how can America's military evolve to meet the challenge posed by new systems of automated warfare, next-generation weaponry, and shorter development cycles? And as we work to meet these challenges, how do we guard against the weakening of our civil and political institutions in an effort to overcome them? These are just a few of the questions that Chris and Demetri tackle in the first part of today's conversation.

In the overtime, the two discuss some of the initiatives and projects that Chris is most excited about at Anduril, and how the company is revolutionizing the way we think about the relationship between commercial technologies and military technologies, battle networks and platforms, as well as the overall budgetary procurement and acquisition process.

If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:

Write us a review on Apple Podcasts

Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Episode Recorded on 10/13/2020

Isolationism: A History of America's Efforts to Shield Itself from the World | Charles Kupchan Oct 12, 2020

Show notes

In Episode 158 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Charles Kupchan, a professor of international affairs at Georgetown University, who served as special assistant to the president for national security affairs in the Obama Whitehouse and on the National Security Council under President Bill Clinton.

The two explore the history of isolationism in the United States and apply those lessons towards a broader conversation about the future of America and the 2020 election during the episode overtime.

You can access the overtime, as well as the transcript and rundown to this week's episode through the Hidden Forces Patreon Page.

All subscribers gain access to our overtime feed, which can be easily added to your favorite podcast application.

If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:

Write us a review on Apple Podcasts

Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Episode Recorded on 10/07/2020

Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan's Defense & American Strategy in Asia | Ian Easton Oct 05, 2020

Show notes

In Episode 157 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Ian Easton, Senior Director at the Project 2049 Institute and author of "The Chinese Invasion Threat" about the likelihood and consequences of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

The Taiwan Strait is one of the most dangerous flashpoints on earth and the island of Taiwan sits right in the middle of one of the busiest maritime sea and air routes in the world. It is situated at the very center of what is known as the first island chain, stretching from as far south as Vietnam and Indonesia, all the way up through the Philippines and north of Japan, giving it unique strategic and commercial significance as a gateway to the pacific.

In this two-hour long conversation, Ian provides us with an extraordinary overview of the island's history, its strategic, commercial, and political significance, and what an invasion of Taiwan would mean for the United States, its allies, and the world.

If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:

Write us a review on Apple Podcasts

Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Episode Recorded on 09/30/2020

The Rise of Mohammed bin Salman and the Future of Saudi Arabia | Bradley Hope & Justin Scheck Sep 28, 2020

Show notes

In Episode 156 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Wall Street Journal reporters Bradley Hope and Justin Scheck about their new book, "Blood & Oil" that chronicles the rise to power of Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman, a story full of multi-billion dollar business deals, high-powered finance, and political intrigue.

The first 15 minutes or so of their conversation deal with Bradley and Justin's process for writing the book, their cultivation of leads, and how they went about fact-checking stories. The rest of the episode and the overtime focuses on Salman's approach to statesmanship, his role and that of his family as "swing investors" in silicon valley, and what it means for the politics of the greater Middle East should he assume the throne.

If you enjoyed listening to today's episode of Hidden Forces you can help support the show by doing the following:

Write us a review on Apple Podcasts

Subscribe to our mailing list through the Hidden Forces Website

Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas

Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou

Subscribe & Support the Podcast at http://patreon.com/hiddenforces

Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod

Episode Recorded on 09/11/2020