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USDA Finally Admits It - Corn Demand is STRONG Dec 11, 2024

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🌽 Corn Futures Rally on USDA Report 📊
Corn futures rallied on Tuesday, driven by a friendly USDA report 📈. The nearby March 2025 corn contract gained more than 7 cents per bushel, closing at $4.49, its best close since early October 🌽. The USDA increased its projection for US corn exports by a whopping 150 million bushels, citing a strong sales pace. In addition, the USDA raised its forecast for corn demand via ethanol by 50 million bushels. As a result, the USDA reduced the 24/25 US carryout projection by 200 million bushels, signaling a tighter corn balance sheet 📉.
🌾 USDA's Bearish Soybean Projection Continues 📉
The USDA continues to project a burdensome soybean situation for the current marketing year 🌱. The government left its US soybean balance sheet unchanged, with Brazil's crop estimate remaining at 169 million metric tons (mmt) and Argentina's production estimate slightly increased to 52 mmt 🌍. The global supply and demand situation for soybeans is expected to be the 2nd most bearish on record, only behind the 2018/2019 marketing year. The stocks/use ratio is also expected to remain high, further indicating pressure on the soybean market 📉.
🇨🇳 China Prepares Stimulus Measures Amid US Tariffs 🏦
China is ready to implement stimulus measures to counter the effects of US trade tariffs 💰. In response, China will adopt a more relaxed monetary policy and proactive fiscal measures, marking a shift from its cautious approach of the past 14 years 📊. This policy change reflects China's willingness to take on higher debt levels and a rising debt-to-GDP ratio as it aims to stimulate growth 🏗️. These measures will prioritize consumption and high-tech manufacturing while managing risks. The extent of China’s policy will depend on the timing and scale of new US tariffs 🇺🇸.
💼 Trump's Tariffs May Not Be as Severe as Expected 📉
President-elect Donald Trump's tariffs may not have the far-reaching impact many have anticipated 💼. Leaders from Guggenheim Partners and Franklin Templeton suggest that Trump’s tariffs could be more of a negotiating tactic rather than universal and severe actions 🔄. Experts argue that these targeted tariffs may not trigger a full-scale trade war, and the negative impacts on the global economy are expected to be delayed due to the slow pace of policy implementation in Washington, D.C. 📅.
📊 US Inflation Likely Paused in November 📉
The downward trend in US inflation appears to have paused in November 📊. The CPI report is expected to show an annual inflation rate of 2.7%, up 0.1% from October 📈. On a monthly basis, inflation is anticipated to have risen 0.3%. Traders are still predicting a 77% chance that the Federal Reserve will lower rates by a quarter percentage point at next week’s meeting 🏦. However, some economists are concerned that Trump’s proposed tariffs could keep inflation elevated into 2025, potentially limiting the Fed’s ability to cut rates as expected 📊.
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Canada Threatens Tariff Retaliation: US Ag Exports at Risk?? Dec 10, 2024

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0:00 Canada Tariff Threat
3:00 USDA Preview
4:50 Brazil Soybean Update
7:59 Russia Back and Forth
9:10 Grain Shipment Update
10:15 Trump and Beef Industry
Canada Warns of Retaliation Against US Tariffs-
Canada is preparing to retaliate if President-elect Donald Trump follows through with his plan to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian imports. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has made it clear that Canada will respond if the tariffs are enforced. In 2018, Canada retaliated to Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum by imposing tariffs on bourbon and Harley-Davidsons, which were effective enough to lead to the removal of those tariffs.
USDA Crop Production Report to be Released Today-
The USDA will release its monthly Crop Production report today at 11:00am CST. Traders are expecting minimal changes to the US grain balance sheets. Some believe the USDA will increase its demand projections for US corn, particularly through exports and ethanol production, while others think the agency will delay adjustments until January.
Brazilian Soybean Planting Nearing Completion-
Brazilian soybean planting is nearly complete, with 95% of the expected area already planted by last Thursday, up from 91% the previous week.
Russian Wheat Crop Condition: Updated Outlook-
The Russian wheat crop may not be as poor as previously reported, according to a Russian analytical group that leaked data suggesting a high proportion of the crop was either in poor condition or hadn’t sprouted yet. However, Sovecon, a Russian consulting firm, stated that it is too early to assess the crop's condition, as increased temperatures linked to climate change have led to a delayed sprouting of many plants.
US Soybean Shipments Decline, Still Above Last Year-
US soybean shipments declined last week, with 1.6 million metric tons (60 million bushels) of soybeans inspected for export, marking a 23% decrease from the previous week. However, shipments were still 62% higher than the same week last year. Corn shipments were strong, at 1 million metric tons (41 million bushels), up 10% from the prior week and 45% higher than the same week last year. Wheat shipments, however, fell below expectations, at 226,513 metric tons (8 million bushels), a 24% drop from the previous week.
US Beef Market Faces Further Constraints from Tariffs and Immigration Reform-
The US beef herd continues to shrink, driven by drought, rising input costs, and market volatility, with herd numbers at their lowest since 1961. This reduction has driven beef prices to record highs, and cattle markets have soared to all-time highs. If Trump imposes tariffs on beef or cattle imports, beef prices could rise even further. Additionally, Trump’s planned immigration reform could increase labor costs for meat packers, potentially impacting the beef market by pushing prices even higher.

2-Day Corn Rally: Is USDA Wrong About Demand?? Dec 09, 2024

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0:00 2-Day Corn Rally
2:55 The Funds
4:22 Russia Wheat Update
7:25 Mexico to Negotiate
8:50 World Food Prices
🌽 Corn Futures Rally on Friday 📈
Corn futures rallied on Friday, with the most heavily traded March 2025 contract gaining 5 cents per bushel and posting its best daily close since November 20th. The rally is attributed to strong demand for US corn, particularly from both exports and ethanol production, which have outperformed expectations 🌱. Farmers remain tight holders of their 2024 bushels, and end-users have had to increase basis bids to secure the corn they need 🌾. Private estimates suggest that fund traders were net buyers of 11,000 contracts of corn on Friday 📊.
📊 CFTC Data: Funds Reduce Net-Long Position in Corn 🌽
According to the CFTC’s Commitment of Traders data, large money managers were net sellers of 11,000 corn contracts last week 📉, indicating a reduction in their net-long position in the market. However, funds were net buyers of 13,000 soybean contracts 🌱 and net sellers of 10,000 contracts of SRW wheat 🌾 during the same week. This shift in positions may signal potential changes in market dynamics for the coming weeks 🧑‍💼.
🌾 Russian and Ukrainian Wheat Crop Projections 📊
Russia’s 2025 wheat crop is projected to remain unchanged from this year, with an estimated 81.5 million metric tons (mmt), slightly up from this year's 81.3 mmt 🌾. Dry conditions that reduced this year’s crop production also led to a reduction in planting for next year’s crop, with damaged winter wheat likely to be replanted with spring wheat 🌱. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s wheat crop is projected to increase by 6%, with the 2025 crop estimated at 23.7 mmt, up from 22.4 mmt in 2024 📈.
🇲🇽 Mexico Responds to Trump's Tariff Threats 📉
Mexico is seeking to negotiate in response to President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats 🌎. Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada are aimed at curbing illegal immigration and drug trafficking. In response, Mexico has cracked down on drug smuggling from Asia, detained thousands of migrants, and seized a record amount of fentanyl 💊. Additionally, Mexico is planning to adopt an investment screening approach similar to the US, offering incentives for manufacturing investments, including the production of batteries for regional supply chains ⚡.
📈 Global Food Prices Surge to 18-Month High 🌍
Food prices have climbed to their highest level in over a year and a half, according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization 📊. The food price index averaged 127.5 points in November, marking a 0.5% increase from October and a 5.7% increase from last year 🌾. The rise is largely driven by an increase in vegetable oil prices, which saw a 7.5% jump from the prior month, the largest increase since July 2022. Cereal prices declined by 2.7% due to a drop in global wheat prices 🌾.

Have Wheat Futures Finally Found a Bottom?? Dec 06, 2024

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🌾 Russia’s winter crops are facing significant challenges, with over 37% in poor condition—a record high—and only 31% rated as good, the lowest in 23 years. Due to frosts ❄️ and drought 🌞, some winter crops will need to be replaced with spring crops 🌱. Despite the poor conditions, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister stated the situation isn’t critical. However, the wheat harvest 🍞 is expected to decline by 11% this year.

🌱 Corteva is looking to expand its presence in Brazil's genetically modified (GM) soybean seed 🌾 market, aiming for 20–30% market share with its Enlist E3 seeds by 2030. Although the seeds currently hold a negligible share in Brazil, they dominate nearly two-thirds of the US market 🇺🇸 since their 2019 launch. Challenges in Brazil include competition with Bayer ⚔️ and economic struggles 💸 affecting farmers’ ability to adopt new technologies. Year-to-date, Corteva’s shares 📈 have risen by 29%.

📊 US export sales of soybeans, while down 7% from the previous week, reached 2.3mmt (85M bushels), near the upper range of expectations. China 🇨🇳 was the largest buyer. Corn 🌽 exports exceeded forecasts at 1.7mmt (68M bushels), up 63% from the prior week, with Mexico 🇲🇽 as the largest buyer. Wheat 🌾 sales were 378,200mt (14M bushels), led by Mexican purchases.

🌨️ USDA drought data shows improved conditions in parts of the Corn Belt 🌽, including Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin, due to snowfall. Slight improvements were also noted in northwest Minnesota, southeast Missouri, and eastern North Dakota, but the High Plains 🌾 saw no significant changes. Drought remains widespread, affecting 54% of corn, 49% of soybeans, and 40% of cattle areas 🐄.

🛒 The USDA reported a flash sale of 136,000mt (5M bushels) of soybeans to China 🇨🇳 for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Accumulated soybean sales are up 12% compared to the same period last year, signaling robust demand 📈.

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Analysts are Dumb, There is No Crystal Ball (Grain Marketing) Dec 05, 2024

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0:00 Stock Market and Grain Marketing Comparison
4:29 Bitcoin 100k
6:02 Mexico Economic Problems
7:46 Mexico GMO Ban?
10:47 Russia Wheat Problems
12:11 Ethanol Production Pace
Stock Market Hits Record Highs
The stock market reached new record highs on Wednesday! The Dow Jones climbed by 0.7%, surpassing the 45,000 mark for the first time. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also set new records, gaining 0.6% and 1.3%, respectively. These gains were driven by a rally in technology stocks, alongside positive remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who stated that the US economy is in "remarkably good shape" and that potential risks in the labor market have subsided.
Bitcoin Soars Above $100,000
Bitcoin traded above $100,000 for the first time early this morning! The world's most famous cryptocurrency has rallied more than 40% since Donald Trump's election in early November. Paul Atkins, a well-known crypto advocate, was appointed to chair the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by Trump, sparking optimism in the crypto community. Additionally, significant money flows into Wall Street’s Bitcoin ETFs have added to the momentum.
Mexico's Economic Outlook Deteriorates
Mexico’s economic outlook is deteriorating, with 47% of Mexicans now believing the economy is in bad shape, an increase from 44% in October. The economic slowdown is becoming more apparent after only two months under the new administration. The situation could worsen if President-elect Donald Trump follows through with his proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican imports.
Mexico and GM Corn Imports Dispute Nears Resolution
Mexico is optimistic about a resolution to its dispute over genetically modified (GM) corn imports. The US had opposed Mexico’s attempt to limit these imports, claiming that the restrictions violated the USMCA agreement. The dispute resolution is expected by December 14, which could offer clarity on future trade relations between the two countries.
Russia’s Winter Crops Face Record Poor Conditions
Russia’s winter crops are facing the worst conditions on record, with a 37% of the crop in poor condition, the highest percentage ever recorded. In comparison, only 4% of last year’s crop was in poor condition at this time, and the five-year average is 8%. The crop’s quality has significantly dropped, with only 31% rated in good condition, the lowest in 23 years.
US Ethanol Production Declines for the First Time in Over Two Months
US ethanol production dropped by 4.1% last week to 1.07 million barrels per day, the first decline in more than two months. Despite this, production remains 6.1% higher than the same week last year. Ethanol stocks increased to 23 million barrels, a +1% increase compared to the previous week. Implied gasoline demand rose 2.7% compared to last week and 6.5% compared to last year, although US gasoline demand has been slightly down over the last four weeks.

45Z Confusion! Biofuel Investments at Risk Dec 04, 2024

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🌿 45Z Tax Credit Guidelines: Conflicting Reports and Uncertainty Ahead 💰
There’s confusion surrounding the 45Z tax credit guidelines, as Reuters and Bloomberg have released conflicting reports regarding their finalization. Reuters suggests that the US Treasury will not issue guidance before President Biden’s term ends due to disagreements between agricultural lobbyists and environmentalists over how the program should align with climate goals 🌎. On the other hand, Bloomberg reports that a Treasury spokesperson confirmed the guidance would be issued before the end of Biden’s term, allowing eligible producers to claim 45Z tax credits for 2025 📅. The biofuel industry is urging lawmakers to extend blender credits, which are set to expire at the end of the year, hoping for clarity before the shift in administration 🍃.
🌾 US Farmer Sentiment Surges After Election 📊
US farmer sentiment hit its highest level in over three years following the presidential election 📈. The Purdue CME Group Ag Economy Barometer rose by 30 points in November, reaching 145, its highest since May 2021. The Future Expectations Index jumped by 37 points, reaching 161, its best since April 2021 🌱. Farmers are more optimistic about future regulations and taxes, but concerns remain over agricultural trade, with more than 40% of respondents believing that a trade war with China is likely under the Trump administration 🛒🌏.
🌍 EU Delays Deforestation Law Amid Global Criticism 🌳
The European Union has reached a tentative deal to delay its deforestation law, which aims to limit the import of products tied to deforestation 🌍. The law requires importers to prove their goods, such as soy, beef, and coffee, are not linked to deforested areas 🌱. Brazil, Indonesia, and other major agricultural producers have been critical of the law. The delay will provide time for European businesses and farmers to prepare before the law takes effect. The final adoption of the deal by EU member states and parliament is expected to be a formality by the end of the month 📅.
🏢 ADM Focuses on Cost Reductions Amid Farm Economy Challenges 💼
ADM (Archer Daniels Midland) is implementing cost reduction measures as it faces ongoing challenges in the farm economy. The grain trader anticipates declining profits next year due to low crop prices 🌾. Additionally, uncertainty around biofuel regulations and the potential for a trade war between the US and China could weigh on ADM's profitability 📉. The company is also under investigation by the SEC and federal authorities over accounting errors in its Nutrition division 📊, contributing to a 25% drop in its stock this year 💔.
⚡ Biden's Clean Energy Grants Total Over $100 Billion 🌞
President Biden has awarded $100 billion in clean energy grants through the Inflation Reduction Act, his signature climate legislation 🌱. Over 80% of these grants have already been allocated, securing funding for projects like carbon capture, wind power, and solar energy ☀️. These funds aim to support the transition to clean energy, making it challenging for President-elect Donald Trump, a climate skeptic, to cancel them once he takes office 🌍. The grants also include tax incentives for clean energy projects, which would require congressional action to reverse 📜.

Soybean Prices are Down, but it's NOT Trump's Fault Dec 03, 2024

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🌱 Record Brazilian Soybean Crop Projected 🌾
Private consulting groups are forecasting a record Brazilian soybean crop for the 2023/2024 season. StoneX estimates the crop at 166.2 million metric tons (mmt), with exports reaching 103 mmt, while Celeres projects the crop to hit 170.8 mmt, with exports totaling 107 mmt 🌎. The favorable growing conditions and high-quality inputs are driving this projection, although StoneX highlighted ongoing concerns over dryness in southern Brazil 🌞. As of last Thursday, AgRural reported that 91% of the soybean area has been planted, up from 86% the previous week, and ahead of 85% planted at the same time last year 📈.
🏭 Cargill to Lay Off Thousands Amid Declining Profits 💼
Cargill, the global agricultural trading giant, announced plans to lay off 5% of its workforce, or around 8,200 workers, in response to financial pressures. The layoffs will mostly occur before the end of the year, impacting senior leaders but not top executives 🚶. Cargill’s profits have been hit by record global corn and soybean crops and the declining US cow herd, which is at its lowest level in seven decades 🐄. For fiscal 2024, Cargill reported a $2.48 billion profit, the lowest since 2016 📉.
💼 ADM’s Accounting Scandal Expands 📊
The investigation into ADM's (Archer Daniels Midland) accounting errors has expanded. The SEC launched a civil probe earlier this year after the company revised its earnings twice due to discrepancies in its Nutrition division 💼. ADM is facing accusations of inflating profits through manipulated intersegment transactions, which may have led to securities fraud 💸. The company maintains that the errors didn’t affect overall profits, but ADM’s stock continues to struggle, now valued at about half of its 2022 peak 📉.
📉 Funds Reduce Net-Long Position in Corn Market 🌽
"The Funds" have reduced their net-long position in the corn market, with large money managers selling 23,000 corn contracts last week 📉. Additionally, funds were net sellers of 10,000 contracts of soybeans and 1,000 contracts of SRW wheat 🌾. The decline in corn futures reflects shifting sentiment in the market, and the reduced positions come as part of broader adjustments by institutional investors 📉.
📦 US Soybean Shipments Decline, Still Strong Year-on-Year 📊
US soybean shipments declined slightly last week, with 2.1 million metric tons (77 million bushels) inspected for export, a 1.4% decrease compared to the previous week. However, shipments remain +78% higher compared to the same week last year 🌱. Corn shipments were down 7.2% from the previous week, and wheat shipments decreased by 19%. Despite these declines, both corn and wheat shipments were still higher than last year 📦.
🌾 USDA Reports Flash Soybean Sale 🚢
US exporters reported a flash sale of 134,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2024/2025 marketing year 🇨🇳. While soybean sales started off weak this marketing year, they have since recovered and are now ranked as the sixth best in the last ten years, highlighting strong international demand for US soybeans 🌎.

New BRICS Currency?? Tariff Man Says NO Dec 02, 2024

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Trump Proposes Major Tariffs on BRIC Nations and North American Trade
President-elect Donald Trump has proposed 100% tariffs on the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE) if they undermine the US dollar. These countries are looking to reduce their dependence on the US dollar, which currently dominates global currency exchanges at 58%. With the BRIC nations’ growing economic influence, this move could challenge the dollar’s position in global trade.
Mexico Responds to Trump’s Tariff Threats
Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum clarified her conversation with Donald Trump after his threats to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. While Trump claimed Sheinbaum agreed to close Mexico’s southern border to migration, Sheinbaum emphasized that Mexico will continue its policy of keeping the border open and fostering positive bilateral relations. She also expressed confidence that a tariff war between the two countries would not take place.
Brazil’s Soybean Crop Expected to Break Records
Agroconsult, a Brazilian consultancy, has forecasted a record-large soybean crop for the 2023/2024 season, estimating a 172.2 million metric tons (mmt) harvest. This would surpass last year’s record of 162.4 mmt by nearly 11%. USDA estimates a slightly smaller crop of 169 mmt, while Brazil's own Conab predicts 166.1 mmt. Brazil’s soybean exports are also projected to hit a record 103.4 mmt, driven by favorable growing conditions and strong international demand.
US Soybean and Corn Export Sales Soar
US soybean export sales reached a marketing-year high, with 2.5 million metric tons (92 million bushels) sold last week. China remained the largest buyer, reflecting robust demand. Meanwhile, corn sales totaled 1.1 million metric tons (42 million bushels), though they were down 29% from the previous week. Mexico remained the largest buyer for US corn. Wheat sales came in at 366,800 metric tons (13 million bushels), showing a slight decline but still strong on the global stage.
US Ethanol Production Hits Record High
US ethanol production reached a record high last week, with an output of 1.12 million barrels per day. This marked the highest weekly output on record, surpassing the previous peak two weeks ago. Ethanol stocks also increased to 22.87 million barrels, reflecting strong production levels. Meanwhile, implied gasoline demand rose 1% compared to the previous week.
Russia Reduces Wheat Export Quota to Combat Inflation
Russia has cut its wheat export quota for the period from mid-February to June, reducing the limit to 11 million metric tons (mmt) — a 62% decrease from last year. This move is designed to control domestic wheat supply amid bad weather and rising inflation, which is currently at 8.5% 📊. Russia will also raise its wheat export duty to 18% starting Wednesday. Despite these measures, Russia is still expected to export 47-52 mmt of wheat this season, retaining its position as the world’s top wheat exporter.
USDA Flash Sales of Soybeans
The USDA reported multiple flash sales of soybeans last week, including 132,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) to China and 991,700 metric tons (36 million bushels) to unknown destinations.

Mexico Vows Tariff Retaliation - Corn Market Risk?? Nov 27, 2024

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0:00 Housekeeping Notes
1:08 Mexico Vows Retaliation
3:16 China Buys More Brazilian Soybeans
6:42 Dollar Strength
8:14 Ceasefire
9:27 Consumer Confidence
🚨 Mexico Threatens Retaliatory Tariffs Against the US 🇲🇽💥
Mexico’s President may impose retaliatory tariffs on the US if President-Elect Trump proceeds with his "day-one" tariff agenda 📉. Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all goods imported from Mexico in an effort to curb illegal migration and the flow of drugs across the US-Mexico border 🌎🚨. President Claudia Scheinbaum warned that Mexico would respond to tariffs with additional measures, potentially risking vital trade relationships between the two nations 💼. Mexico has been the top buyer of US corn this year, making such a move significant for both countries.
🌾 China Secures Brazilian Soybeans Before Trump's Return to the White House 🇨🇳
China is ramping up its soybean purchases from Brazil, securing more than half of its soybean needs for February to April at lower prices 🛒. China is also securing around 20% of its needs for May to June ahead of Trump's return to the White House 🏛️. These purchases come despite higher prices for Brazilian soybeans during the December-January period, a time when the US typically dominates the global market 🌾. While China continues to buy US soybeans, outstanding soybean sales for this marketing year are at their lowest levels since 2018 📉.
💵 Dollar Surges on Trump’s Tariff Threats 💰
Donald Trump's tariff threats have boosted the US dollar, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbing 0.7% on Tuesday 📈. This could lead to record highs for the dollar, surpassing levels seen in the 1980s. The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso both fell sharply, with the peso down by more than 2%.
🇮🇱 Ceasefire Deal Between Israel and Hezbollah 🇱🇧🕊️
A ceasefire deal has been reached between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah militants after months of fighting, which started in October 2023. The deal was brokered by the US and France and went into effect early this morning ⏰. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu supports the ceasefire, as it allows Israel to focus on Iran's threats while continuing efforts to eliminate Hamas and secure the return of hostages 🕊️.
📊 US Consumer Confidence at Highest Level Since July 2023 🛍️
US consumer confidence has surged to its highest point since July 2023, with the Conference Board’s index rising to 111.7 for November, up 2.1 points from October 📊. This increase reflects a more favorable outlook on the economy and labor market following Trump's election victory 🗳️.
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"Tariff Man" Talks More Tariffs - Corn/Soybean Impact?? Nov 26, 2024

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Trump’s New Tariff Plans and Their Impact on Trade
Donald Trump is taking bold steps to address migration and drug trade concerns by imposing additional tariffs. Trump plans to add a 10% tariff on imported goods from China and 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada. The tariffs are part of a broader effort to discourage migration and curb drug trafficking. These new tariffs would complement his earlier plans for 60% tariffs on Chinese imports and 20% on global imports.
US Winter Wheat Conditions Improve with Rainfall
US winter wheat conditions improved dramatically last week thanks to recent rainfall across the High Plains. The crop is now rated 55% good to excellent, a marked improvement from 49% the prior week and 45% on average. The 17% improvement since the end of October is the best for this time of year since 2018. Only 12% of the crop is rated poor to very poor, down from 23% last month.
Brazil Soybean Planting Near Completion
Brazil's soybean planting is nearing completion, with 86% of the expected area already planted by last Thursday. This is up from 80% the previous week and significantly ahead of last year’s pace of 74%.
US Halts Mexican Cattle Imports Due to Screwworm Discovery
The US has halted Mexican cattle imports after the discovery of New World screwworm in a cow near the Guatemalan border in Chiapas, Mexico. This parasite causes severe infections and can infest both animals and humans. As Mexico is the largest source of US cattle imports, this halt is expected to dramatically reduce the supply of feeder cattle, sending futures soaring to their highest levels since July. Imports from Mexico, which were up 21.3% this year, are expected to be restricted for at least the next month.
Coffee Futures Surge Amid Supply Concerns
Coffee futures saw a significant surge on Monday, with Arabica coffee climbing 3% to its highest level since 1997. Robusta futures also hit their highest since the 1970s. Concerns over supply shortages in Brazil and Vietnam are driving prices up. While Brazil experienced heavy rains in October, earlier hot and dry conditions have damaged coffee trees, impacting the upcoming season's production. The USDA forecasts Brazil’s coffee stockpiles to fall 26% by the end of the season, exacerbating concerns.
Scott Bessent Expected to Soften Trump’s Economic Policies
Financial markets reacted positively to Scott Bessent’s appointment as US Treasury Secretary. Bessent, the founder of Key Square Group, is expected to advocate for a more gradual use of tariffs and a focus on economic growth through regulation reduction. His appointment has led to a rise in currencies worldwide, with investors anticipating a softer stance on some of Trump's more extreme economic policies.
US Soybean and Corn Export Sales Update
US soybean shipments declined last week, with 2.1 million metric tons (77 million bushels) inspected for export, a 7.3% drop from the previous week. However, they are still +34% higher compared to the same week last year. On the other hand, corn exports soared, reaching 903,049 metric tons (36 million bushels), which is +115% higher than last year. Wheat exports were also strong, with 360,513 metric tons (13 million bushels) sold, a +25% increase from the same week last year.

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