Show notes
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links —
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Farm Aid & Policy Update
Additional farm aid was not included in the current government funding package, catching many lawmakers and farm groups off guard. Senate Republicans had pushed just last week to add up to $15B in aid, but that language was left out.
With aid excluded for now, supporters say relief may need to come via supplemental appropriations or future legislation.
Congress must pass the funding package by January 30 to avoid another government shutdown.
It was also reported yesterday that nationwide E15 language was again dropped, though GOP leaders are discussing a possible supplemental bill that could allow year-round E15 sales.
Major Winter Storm Risk
A major winter storm is forecast to impact the Southern US this weekend. While the exact track remains uncertain, over 70 million people from Dallas to Little Rock to Nashville are currently under a winter storm watch.
Snow, ice, dangerous travel conditions, and power outages are possible.
Snow cover remains limited across key HRW wheat areas in the Southern Plains. Temperatures in western Kansas and surrounding regions could fall into the single digits, raising the risk of winter kill depending on snow totals and duration. Livestock stress is also a concern.
US–China Trade Watch
US and Chinese officials may soon hold another round of trade talks ahead of the planned April meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
According to the US Trade Representative, negotiations would focus on common goods and services, avoiding sensitive areas like tech and national security.
China has already fulfilled its commitment to purchase 12 mmt of US soybeans. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said both sides are now looking ahead to China’s pledge to buy 25 mmt annually through 2028, though Trump continues to push for larger volumes.
Europe, Greenland & Tariffs
President Trump announced he will refrain from imposing new tariffs on European countries, following meetings at the World Economic Forum.
He stated that a framework for a future deal involving Greenland has been reached, marking a major shift from prior tariff threats. While details remain limited, Denmark continues to oppose any US takeover.
Grain Market Recap
Soybean futures rebounded Wednesday, with the most-active Mar26 contract gaining roughly 12 cents, settling near $10.65.
Support came from a slow start to Brazil’s soybean harvest due to rainfall in northern regions, along with comments from Treasury Secretary Bessent pointing to ongoing Chinese demand for US soybeans.
Global Protein Trade
China has reopened its market to Canadian beef imports, ending a ban that had been in place since 2021. Initial shipments are expected to be small, but the move is a positive long-term opportunity for Canada’s cattle industry.
Meanwhile, US beef exports to China have declined sharply over the past year amid ongoing trade tensions.
India & Wheat Exports
India has approved the export of 500,000 tons of wheat flour and related products. Wheat exports had been restricted since May 2022, but a strong monsoon is expected to boost domestic supplies.
India is typically self-sufficient in wheat and is sometimes a net exporter. Its re-entry into the export market is considered a bearish factor for global wheat prices.
Our TOPPODCAST Picks 
Stay Connected
