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Turkey is in crisis. A number of terrorist attacks in recent weeks has rattled Turkish society, there is a persistent and ongoing crackdown on civil society, and President Erdogan is engineering constitutional changes to further consolidate power.
On the line with me to discuss recent events in Turkey and offer some deeper context into the political situation and the future of US-Turkey relations is Elmira Bayrasli. She is an author and the co-founder of Foreign Policy Interrupted which seeks to amplify the voices of women in foreign policy debates and she was also my guest in episode 81. I learned a great deal from this conversation and suspect you will as well. Before we begin an announcement: On Thursday January 19th at 7pm I will be hosting a live taping of the podcast at the University of Chicago with former UN ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad. If you are in Chicago and want to attend in person please send me an email via the contact page on GlobalDIspatchesPodcast.com. This is a ticketed event and the organizers have reserved tickets for my most loyal listeners so if you are interested, send me an email and I'll send you the registration info.Maria Stephan is a pioneering academic and public intellectual who studies authoritarian regimes and how they fall. She's the co-author with Erica Chenoweth of the groundbreaking and award winning book Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict which was a first-of-its kind study that offered empirical evidence that non-violent resistance is more effective than conflict and civil war in toppling oppressive regimes. She recently lead a study with the Atlantic Council showing that authoritarianism is on the rise globally and we kick off with an extended conversation about that study and how the recent US election fits into her overall thesis.
Maria grew up in rural Vermont and we have a great conversation about the roots of her intellectual curiosity and how that took her to study and compare resistance movements around the world, including East Timor and Palestine.On the line with me to preview the big stories, ideas, trends and crises and provocations that will set the agenda at the United Nations and beyond is Richard Gowen. He's a fellow with the European Council on Foreign Affairs and a regular guest of this very podcast. We have a lively conversation about Trump's relationship with the UN, the new incoming secretary general and more. We recorded this conversation in late December, before the big vote on Israel settlements into which the president elect weighed on twitter. So that vote does not factor into this conversation, but I would say that the big implication of that vote is that it's likely makes the UN more vulnerable to moves by the incoming congress to restrict or undermine US support for the UN, including the possible withholding of funding. If you want to read my full thoughts on that, check out UN Dispatch. For now though, here is Richard Gowen and I chatting about the big stories at the UN and around the world in 2017
Russia has successfully influenced the election here in the United States in its favor. It's side is winning the war in Syria. Crimea looks like it will remain in Russia for the foreseeable future and the NATO alliance may become weakened when Donald Trump takes office.
This is pretty much springtime for Putin in Moscow. But what are Russia's grander ambitions? Why did they hack the US election? What do they want from the Middle East? From Europe and China? I put these questions and more to James Goldgeier, a Russia expert and the Dean of the School of International Studies at American University. James describes some of Putin's near term and longer term strategic goals and how a less contentious relationship with the USA--one not based on values, but on individual transactions -- may reshape Russian foreign policy and international affairs more broadly.
Amy Costello is a veteran reporter who now hosts the excellent Tiny Spark podcast that investigates what goes right and what goes wrong in philanthropy, including global philanthropy and the NGO sector. At the very end of our conversation Amy reveals she started this podcast in part as a response to a story she reported that was wildly popular, but she later learned rested on a false premise.
Amy was one of the first television reporters in Darfur during the midst of the genocide, a work for which she was Emmy nominated. She describes the kinds of scenes she saw and how that reporting project left a lasting impression upon her.We kick off in this holiday season discussing philanthropy and how individuals, perhaps you out there listening right now, can be an effective altruist by maximizing the impact of your charitable giving.President Elect Donald Trump has assembled a team of generals to fill key posts in his national security team. Former Army General Mike Flynn is his National Security Advisor, Marine General John Kelly has been tapped to serve as homeland security chief and of course recently retired marine general ames Mattis has been nominated as Secretary of Defense. Top military brass have served in civilian roles But never before have so many generals been tapped to serve at once and in top positions in the government. And this is out of the ordinary precisely because the American political system has historically shunned it for reasons that my guest Alice Hunt Friend describes. Alice Friend studies civil military relations--she's currently writing her PhD thesis on the topic. She's a former official in the Pentagon and is currently both a Senior Associate, Center for Strategic and International Studies Adjunct Senior Fellow, Center for a New American Security. She offers what I find to be a very nuanced take on the kind of challenge or even threat to the American democratic system that is posed when the military takes on a greater role in civilian political life. She also discusses the kinds of policy implications that result from when generals are put in charge of civilian institutions.
Cameron Munter was the US Ambassador to Pakistan when US Special forces conducted the midnight raid that killed Osama Bin Laden. He watched the raid live and hours later was dealing with the diplomatic fallout. Munter had a career in both academia and the diplomatic corps, serving in a wide variety of posts. He's now the president of the East West Institute. And this is arguably the first podcast ever in the history of the universe in which both Otto Von Bismark and Lou Reed are each discussed.
We kick off with a brief discussion of the ways that Chinese domestic politics influence its foreign policy and what the future holds for US-Chinese relationship in the Trump era. And then of course, as we always do, we pivot to a longer conversation about his life and career with some fun digressions along the way.
There are some frightening warning signs that a genocide may erupt in South Sudan. The country has been at war with itself for the better of three years, ever since a political dispute between President Salva Kiir and his Vice Preisident Riek Machar turned into an armed conflict between those two men. The conflict took on ugly sectarian dimensions--these men hail from different ethnic groups--and peace has been elusive. In recent weeks, however, it seems that the government of Salva Kiir is readying itself to commit ethnic-based mass atrocities for reasons that my guest Cameron Hudson explains. Cameron is the director of the Simon-Skjodt Center for the Prevention of Genocide at the US Holocaust Memorial Museum. He's also a former CIA officer with extensive background in the region. And in this episode, he explains what conditions are ripe for genocide in South Sudan are ripe.
Mark Tokola is the vice president of the Korea Economic Institute of America. He's a long serving American diplomat with postings around the world and we discuss a few of them in this episode, including his first posting to Turkey where his main job was helping Americans sent to prison on drug trafficking charges. He also compares his work in the Balkans in the 1990s to Iraq after the fall of Saddam and I think makes an important point about the value of multilateralism to American interests.
We spoke a day after the Security Council passed new a sanctions resolution on North Korea following a nuclear test in September and we kick off discussing the implications of those sanctions before pivoting to a longer conversation about his globe-spanning career. Mark's last posting was to South Korea and we end with some discussion about the political upheaval underway there and whether or not my man Ban Ki Moon may run for president next year. Mark is an alumnus of the Salzburg Global Seminar which is a podcast sponsor this month and at the top of the episode we also reference a seminar about North Korean human rights in which he participatedDonald Trump's foreign policy and national security team is still taking shape. He has appointed Nikki Haley as his UN ambassador and Mike Flynn as his National Security Advisor. But at the time of recording, he has not picked a Secretary of State or Secretary of Defense. So how are you best able to interpret and understand the implications of those selections to American foreign policy? Thankfully, there is some is some emerging political science that speaks to the role of advisors in shaping national security policy, and on the line with me to discuss this research is Professor Elizabeth Saunders of George Washington University. Saunders has conducted a number of studies that speak to the circumstances in which cabinet picks and top advisors can shape public opinion and decision making on key foreign policy issues. We discuss her research and its implications for the Trump transition in this episode. And after you listen to this episode, you should have a fairly decent grounding in how to interpret the significance of these picks, no matter who the end up being.
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