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The year is 2026, and China has just launched an invasion of Taiwan.
What happens next was the subject of a comprehensive non-classified War Game simulation lead by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Our guest, Mark Cancian, is a retired Marine Colonel and senior advisor at CSIS and one of the lead conveners of this War Game.
We kick off discussing how the War Game was designed before having a longer conversation about the outcomes it predicted. This includes death tolls, the role of Japan and whether or not the US and Chinese homeland are attacked. I'll cut to the chase: after 24 iterations, the most probable outcome was the defeat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, but at a staggeringly high cost to Taiwan and the United States.
Ukraine is widely expected to launch a counter-offensive to reclaim territory captured by Russia. And if Ukraine is successful on the battlefield, Russia may float a ceasefire proposal, that more likely than not would be disingenuous and merely an attempt to stall for time.
These are some of the conclusions of a recent Red Team exercise conducted by the Public International Law & Policy Group (PILPG) which gathered a number of experts to predict Russia's approach to a potential ceasefire negotiation. Joining me to discuss their findings and how a Russian ceasefire proposal might upend international support for Ukraine is Dr. Paul Williams, founder of Public International Law & Policy Group which is a pro bono law firm supporting states and governments involved in, among other things peace and ceasefire.
This is a a special crossover episode featuring Global Dispatches host Mark Leon Goldberg taking questions from veteran journalist Ray Suarez, from the On Shifting Ground podcast. They discuss trends in international reporting and why humanitarian journalism is a vital part of the media ecosystem. Regular Global Dispatches listeners will get a unique understanding of how the show is put together every week.
Before COVID more and more children around the world were receiving their routine vaccinations on time and in full. But COVID severely interrupted that progress. Now, we are seeing lagging indicators of interrupted childhood vaccinations in the form of outbreaks of vaccine preventable diseases like measles and diphtheria.
To reverse this trend a number of global health entities have joined forces for what they call "The Big Catch-up" to boost vaccination among children following declines driven by the COVID-19 pandemic.
joining me to discuss trends in routine childhood vaccinations around the world, the impact of COVID 19 on those trends and what can be done to restore progress is Dr. Ephrem Lemango, associate director of immunization at UNICEF headquarters in New York.
On May 11th a pandemic-era policy, known as Title 42, will expire. This was a Trump administration policy which used public health concerns as a pretext expel migrants from the United States before they could claim asylum under US and international law. Title 42 has continued under the Biden administration but is set to expire. American officials are bracing for a massive increase in the number of people seeking asylum at the southern US border. This is shaping up to be a humanitarian crisis and bureaucratic crisis rolled up into one.
Joining me to help explain recent migration patterns in the Americas and the Biden administration's approach to migration at the southern US border is Yael Schacher, director for America's and Europe and Refugees International.
We kick off discussing one key node in an increasing number of migrants journeys known as the Darien Gap. We then have a broad discussion about the patchwork of US policies intended to handle asylum claims and offer a legal pathway to entry to the USA.
Turkey holds elections on May 14th. For the first time in twenty years, President Erdogan is facing a serious challenge at the ballot box. The opposition has unified behind candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, a 74 year old career politician whose low-key demeanor is a stark contrast to President Erdogan's bombastic charisma.
As my guest today Dr. Lisel Hintz explains, Turkey's struggling economy and the fallout from the earthquakes earlier this year are re-shaping the political landscape. Dr. Lisel Hintz is Assistant Professor of International Relations at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. We kick off discussing some of the domestic political dynamics driving this election and then have a discussion about the foreign policy implications of the elections. This includes Turkey's relationship to NATO, its position on Russia and Ukraine and regional dynamics in the Middle East.
In the ten year history of this podcast, it is rare to have episodes on the same topic in back to back weeks. But the unfolding crisis in Sudan is such an important topic that it demands attention.
Last week, I spoke with civil society activist Hala al Karib, who was trapped in her house in Khartoum as fighting erupted. She very much offered an informed local perspective on what was happening around her. Today, we are taking a global perspective on Sudan's burgeoning civil war with Cameron Hudson. He's a senior associate in the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a long time Sudan policy hand in Washington DC.
We kick off discussing why this conflict erupted when it did. We then spend a good deal of time discussing how and why this incipient civil war is very much an international affair, including a discussion of the diplomatic failures that lead to this moment.
On March 29th, Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich was arrested in Russia and charged with espionage. The charges are spurious, but the intentions are clear: Evan Gershkovich is now a hostage in Russia and his release will require a delicate diplomatic balancing act.
My guest today Dr. Dani Gilbert is an academic who studies what she calls "Hostage Diplomacy." She is the Edelson Fellow in US Foreign Policy and International Security at the John Sloan Dickey Center for International Understanding at Dartmouth College.
We last spoke in June 2022, following the arrest of the American basketball star Britney Griner. In our conversation today, we discuss the differences and similarities between the Griner case and the Gershovich situation. We also discuss what processes might lead to Gershkovich's release and how this latest wrongful detention of an American abroad fits into larger patterns around government sponsored hostage taking.
On Saturday, April 15th fighting broke out in Khartoum and elsewhere in Sudan. At time of recording, hundreds of people have been killed, all commercial air travel has been suspended, and international aid operations have come to a halt. In the massive city of Khartoum, millions of people are sheltering in place, with dwindling supplies of food and water-- and that includes my guest today Hala al-Karib, a Sudanese activist, research practitioner and director of the Strategic Initiative for Women in the Horn of Africa.
When I last spoke with Hala al-Karib for the podcast in late February, she more or less predicted the crisis we are seeing today which is the result of a failure of a transition to democracy in Sudan.
Hala al-Karib explains that despite the predicable failure of the democratic transition in Sudan, people were still caught off guard by the actual outbreak of fighting. We then go on to discuss some of the broader conflict dynamics and what can be done to pull Sudan back from the brink of all out civil war.
Over ten years ago, most Arab countries in the Middle East cut ties with the Syrian government during the civil war and supported armed groups dedicated to the overthrow of the Bashar al-Assad regime. Meanwhile, Iran was Assad's key backer.
But now, in the Spring of 2023 a big shift is underway. Saudi Arabia and Iran are taking steps towards rapprochement and Arab governments throughout the region are re-opening embassies in Damascus and re-establishing diplomatic relations with Syria.
Joining me to explain what is driving this regional re-alignment is Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma and the Mackey Chair. We kick off discussing how the outbreak of the Syrian civil war impacted regional diplomacy and why now we are seeing such profound changes in the the geopolitics of the Middle East.
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