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The race to succeed António Guterres is unofficially underway. His term as UN Secretary-General ends in December 2026, but the backroom jockeying has already begun. In this episode, Mark and Anjali are joined by Richard Gowan of the International Crisis Group to break down the early contenders, how shifting geopolitics could shake up the selection process, and the daunting mess the next Secretary-General is likely to inherit. But first, they react to Trump's eyebrow-raising pick for UN Ambassador: recently fired National Security Advisor Mike Waltz.
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The legendary international relations scholar Joseph Nye passed away on May 7th at the age of 88. He's best known, of course, for developing and advancing the idea of "soft power"—the ability to influence others and shape outcomes through attraction, persuasion, and cultural or ideological appeal rather than coercion or force. But over his singularly illustrious career, he authored hundreds of scholarly articles and dozens of books on international relations.
To honor is legacy and memory, I wanted to share our conversation from way back in 2014.
We began our conversation talking about Russia's (then recent) annexation of Crimea and occupation Ukraine, and what it suggests about long held ideas in international relations theory. We then pivot to his personal story, including his childhood in New Jersey and how his entry into the world of international relations was as an Africanist—he wrote an award-winning thesis as a Rhodes Scholar on decolonization in East Africa. Of course, we also discussed at length how he came up with the idea of "soft power," which, as he explains, stemmed from an "a-ha!" moment while sitting in his kitchen.
In just the first four months of the Trump administration, several pillars of American foreign policy have been upended — USAID dismantled, most foreign aid frozen, and the rules-based international trade system thrown into disarray. Could nuclear policy be next?
To find out, I spoke with Alexandra Bell, President and CEO of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and a former senior State Department official on nuclear issues. She breaks down the key decisions facing the administration — and the risks tied to some of the options on the table, particularly around missile defense. We also unpack the state of nuclear diplomacy with Russia and China, and why forcing trilateral arms control talks is likely a dead end.
This conversation is a clear-eyed look at the current state of play in Trump's nuclear policy — and where it may be headed next.
We recorded this live at the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference. More conversations are coming soon. To catch them live, subscribe below or get the Substack app.
The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, better known as the CTBT, expressly prohibits its signatories from testing nuclear weapons. It was opened for signature in 1996 and is now one of the most widely adopted treaties in the world.
Since the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty was opened for signature in 1996, there have been ten nuclear tests conducted worldwide. These include two tests by India and two by Pakistan in 1998, and six tests by North Korea between 2006 and 2017 . This limited number of tests since 1996 stands in stark contrast to the more than 2,000 nuclear tests conducted in the preceding five decades, highlighting the CTBT's significant role in establishing a global norm against nuclear testing
My guest today, Robert Floyd, is the Executive Secretary of the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty Organization, which—as the name suggests—is the international body responsible for monitoring and facilitating the implementation of this treaty. It does so, in part, through a sophisticated global monitoring system capable of detecting a nuclear test anywhere in the world. I sat down with Robert Floyd on the sidelines of the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference in Washington, DC, earlier this month, where he explained why the CTBT has been so successful in constraining nuclear testing—and what challenges the treaty now faces amid a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape.
This episode is produced in partnership with Lex International Fund, a philanthropic fund dedicated to strengthening international law to solve global challenges. It is part of a series that demonstrates the impact of Treaties on state behavior that we are calling "when treaties work"
Ankit Panda's new book delivers a stark message: we've entered a new nuclear age. This one is shaped by rising U.S.–Russia tensions, China's emergence as a major nuclear power, and a wave of tech breakthroughs — including AI — that are transforming the nuclear landscape. The result? A world where nuclear security is more complicated, and more dangerous, than ever.
In The New Nuclear Age: At the Precipice of Armageddon, Panda breaks down the key trends driving this shift. In our conversation, he explains why this moment is so perilous — and how we might avoid stumbling into a new nuclear war.
We recorded this live at the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference. More conversations are coming soon.
The escalating trade dispute between the United States and China has, in the view of my guest today, unofficially crossed the threshold into a full-blown trade war. Wendy Cutler is Vice President at the Asia Society Policy Institute and a longtime diplomat and negotiator at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.
We spoke on Friday, April 18, as both countries were rapidly imposing tariffs and counter-tariffs, measures and countermeasures. In our conversation, Wendy explains which of these actions may prove particularly damaging to both the U.S. and Chinese economies. She also breaks down China's diplomatic response, including a recent trip by Xi Jinping to three Southeast Asian countries aimed at shoring up regional trade alliances. Finally, Wendy offers insight into how bad this trade war could get—and identifies potential offramps that might help prevent the worst-case scenarios.`
The crisis in Sudan is taking another devastating turn.
Over the past several days, a genocidal paramilitary group known as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has attacked a sprawling refugee camp in Darfur. As I write this, nearly 400,000 people have fled the camp and are now traversing the desert in search of safety. Meanwhile, the RSF is mounting an offensive on the last major city in Darfur not under its control.
This escalation comes as the world rather quietly marked the second anniversary of Sudan's civil war. In April 2022, two rival generals vied for control of the country, plunging it into chaos. Two years on, Sudan has become the world's largest humanitarian crisis, with over 12 million people forcibly displaced from their homes.
One of them is Dalia Abdel Moneim. She fled her home in Khartoum shortly after the war began and is now living in Cairo. She joined me for a conversation about the unfolding catastrophe in Sudan.
"Nobody wins in trade wars," said António Guterres as he left a UN Security Council meeting this week. But it's clear there's at least one big loser: American diplomacy. This week, Anjali and Mark break down how the Trump tariffs are rippling through the UN — and how they're complicating diplomacy on issues that have nothing to do with trade. We also speculate on who Trump might tap as his next envoy now that Elise Stefanik is out. Plus, we dig into the UN's role in Gaza as both diplomacy and humanitarian aid grind to a halt, and what's next for the World Food Program after a stunning announcement — and sudden retraction — from a senior DOGE official.
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Heather Hurlburt is a former chief of staff in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative during the Biden Administration and now a fellow at Chatham House. She is also someone I've routinely turned to over the years for insights into broader geopolitical trends. In our conversation today, we dig into the real geopolitical fallout from Donald Trump's escalating trade war — and how the global balance of power is already shifting in ways that most people aren't paying attention to. She explains why the trade war is about much more than tariffs, who the real winners and losers are likely to be, and what ripple effects we're already seeing across Asia, Europe, Africa and beyond.
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A few months ago, the Canadian Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, was cruising toward a massive victory in the upcoming Canadian elections, with most polls showing him holding a 20-point lead over his Liberal Party opponent.
But what a difference an American election makes!
Since Trump's musings about annexing Canada and his sweeping trade war against the country, polls have shifted decisively in favor of the Liberal Party, now led by Prime Minister Mark Carney. It seems Canadians are poised to soundly reject the so-called "Maple MAGA."
With Canadian elections just a few weeks away on April 28th, I knew I wanted to speak with one of my favo(u)rite explainers of all things Canada: journalist Justin Ling. He's written for numerous outlets, created some amazing podcasts, and is the author of the Bug-Eyed and Shameless newsletter here on Substack.
We spoke one day after Trump's latest global tariff announcements, which hit Canada hard. In our conversation, Justin explains the current state of Canadian politics in the Trump era, and more broadly, how Trump's moves against Canada are rallying Canadians in unexpected ways—sparking a surge of national pride and solidarity in defiance of the threat from their powerful neighbor to the south.
It's a fascinating conversation that reveals how Trump's bluster is reshaping Canadian politics in real time—and why this moment might mark a turning point for Canada's political identity.
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