Gleeman and The Geek

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Diamond Awards, Over/Unders, and Sale Rumors Oct 08, 2026

Show notes

Aaron and John talk about team MVP Kody Clemens and the rest of the Twins' season-ending award winners, Charley Walters' report about the Pohlads possibly talking sale again, reviewing our preseason over/under picks, and surprising arbitration projections.

0:00 Gleeman & The Geek: Twins Diamond Awards, 2027 payroll, and over/under results 2:51 Twins Diamond Awards with no ceremony and no TwinsFest during the lockout 4:24 Most Valuable Twin: Aaron's vote for Taj Bradley 9:10 Cody Clemens wins Twins team MVP 14:14 Twins Pitcher of the Year: Taj Bradley 14:41 Most Improved Twin: Brooks Lee 16:09 Twins Rookie of the Year: Connor Prielipp 17:49 Defensive Player of the Year: Byron Buxton over ... Ryan Kreidler? 20:25 Byron Buxton wins the Twins leadership award 20:53 Louie Varland wins Upper Midwest Player of the Year after the Twins traded him 22:21 Media Good Guy: Ryan Jeffers three-peats 26:36 Twins minor league awards: Walker Jenkins and Adrian Bohorquez 27:22 The case for Marek Houston as minor league player of the year 33:56 Twins 2027 payroll: what $100 million actually buys 38:29 Why matching the 2023 Twins payroll now means $175 million or more 40:33 No winter meetings: how the lockout reshapes the MLB offseason 41:39 2027 MLB free agent class: Tarik Skubal and a lot of Josh Bell types 44:32 Ryan Jeffers and the qualifying offer 46:37 Replacing Jeffers: a thin catcher market and the Victor Caratini problem 51:09 What happens with Alex Jackson 56:59 MLB Trade Rumors arbitration projections 58:52 Tender now, trade later? The Trevor Larnach decision 1:04:31 Charlie Walters reports a Twins sale to Varde Partners is heating up 1:12:30 What private equity ownership could mean for the Twins 1:18:47 Spring training over/under review: Aaron's prediction slump 1:21:46 Why 10 of 15 American League teams finished under their Vegas win totals 1:23:21 AL East over/unders: Tampa Bay Rays win 98 games 1:25:18 Baltimore Orioles disappoint despite Pete Alonso's 40 homers 1:26:48 Boston Red Sox: Aaron gets one right 1:28:03 Toronto Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s nine-homer season 1:30:00 New York Yankees win 93 games 1:31:28 AL West over/unders: all five teams go under, starting with the Angels 1:32:00 The Athletics' injury-wrecked season 1:33:15 Texas Rangers fall short 1:34:21 Houston Astros' front office decline 1:36:47 Seattle Mariners and Cal Raleigh's collapse 1:37:30 Aaron's George Costanza plan: pick the opposite 1:39:55 AL Central over/unders: Chicago White Sox make the playoffs 1:41:45 Twins over/under: Aaron takes the over and wins 1:44:38 Cleveland Guardians win the AL Central 1:45:42 Kansas City Royals sink to 69 wins 1:46:26 Detroit Tigers sell and fade 1:47:56 Final tally over/under tally. 1:50:37 Wrap-up and offseason schedule

Twins' Key Players: Staying Or Leaving? Oct 02, 2026

Show notes

Aaron and John talk about which of the Twins' key veterans will or won't be on next year's team, the end-of-season press conference with Tom Pohlad, Jeremy Zoll, and Derek Shelton, and what to expect this offseason before the lockout hits.

0:00 Intro: Blackstack beer and the end of the Twins season

1:16 Twins finish 77-85: met expectations, but the third straight late-season collapse

3:43 Offseason preview: key dates, the Pohlad press conference, and who's staying or leaving

4:41 Thank you, listeners: Aaron Gleeman's year leaving The Athletic and going independent

7:03 John Bonnes on independent publishers and the G&TG community

13:17 MLB offseason schedule: free agency opens after the World Series

13:47 Qualifying offer deadlines and how a QO affects a free agent's market

15:46 Arbitration tender deadline: keep or cut for Royce Lewis, Bailey Ober, Trevor Larnach

17:11 MLB lockout on November 30: no winter meetings, no Rule 5 draft?

18:50 Flashback: the 2021 lockout day, Byron Buxton's extension and Dylan Bundy

19:59 If a lockout cancels 2027, what happens to Pablo Lopez's contract?

22:52 GM meetings in November could replace the winter meetings

24:47 Both Gleeman and The Geek heading to the GM meetings?

32:10 Twins end-of-season press conference with Tom Pohlad, Jeremy Zoll, Derek Shelton

33:06 Pohlad skips the spin: "Our roster wasn't built for a 162-game season"

34:37 Pohlad backs Zoll and Shelton, blames the ownership mess

35:40 Could the Twins have made moves last winter?

37:40 Pitching coach Pete Maki fired

39:31 Twins payroll: Pohlad won't commit to a number or even a range

41:06 The baseline: why the first $105 million is already spoken for

42:58 Why the Twins should level-set payroll expectations with fans

44:40 Pohlad's words sound good, now he has to back them up

47:02 A one-month window and a weak free agent class

49:01 Is Jeremy Zoll more aggressive than Derek Falvey?

51:27 The lockout doesn't stop moves: lessons from the 2021 November frenzy

55:34 Staying or leaving: rating the Twins players whose futures are in doubt

57:36 Byron Buxton is staying (stop asking)

58:33 Ryan Jeffers: free agency and the qualifying offer decision

1:03:20 Why a qualifying offer to Jeffers is a low-risk move

1:09:02 Josh Bell: good bat, but no fit at first base or DH?

1:12:18 AJ Minter: the best fit of the Twins' free agents

1:19:05 Taylor Rogers: end of the line for a Twins bullpen great

1:21:25 Trevor Larnach: the left-handed logjam and an $8 million arbitration raise

1:29:23 Bailey Ober: the velocity is gone and the strikeouts are falling

1:34:38 Joe Ryan: trade him now with one year left, or keep him?

1:39:53 Pablo Lopez returning from Tommy John surgery

1:40:23 Royce Lewis: two and a half years of struggles at the plate

1:43:56 John and Aaron disagree: is Royce Lewis staying or leaving?

1:49:55 Austin Martin and Matt Wallner

1:50:27 Wrap-up: Patreon mailbag next week

End of the Line for the 2026 Twins Sep 25, 2026

Show notes

Aaron and John talk about what's left for the Twins to play for during the final weekend, young players like Luke Keaschall, Connor Prielipp, and Walker Jenkins providing bright spots, Royce Lewis and Ryan Jeffers struggling down the stretch, the rotation outlook for 2027, and the end of the Alex Jackson saga. 0:00 Intro: John checks off his last active MLB ballpark in Sacramento 2:03 Twins win first road series since July in San Francisco 2:03 Final series vs. Texas Rangers with the AL West title at stake 8:00 Final Twins games for Ryan Jeffers, Taylor Rogers, Josh Bell, Bailey Ober? 9:07 Will Kendry Rojas get a look before the season ends? 10:40 Walker Jenkins goes from 4-for-45 to above-average MLB hitter 14:15 Luke Keaschall reaches 10 home runs as his defense improves 20:50 Royce Lewis ends the season lost at the plate again 22:57 Ryan Jeffers slumps after nine straight starts at catcher 33:14 The Alex Jackson saga and Twins roster construction. 45:51 15 pitchers with a save: an AL record that reflects bullpen chaos 47:20 Hoffman passes Gomez as the Twins' top reliever 48:34 Septembers bullpen struggles and what it means for the offseason. 57:50 Connor Prielipp finishes his rookie season healthy with 140+ innings 1:03:42 Zebby Matthews: a 6.87 September ERA and a bullpen future? 1:06:05 Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and the Twins' history of rotation-depth mirages 1:09:50 Derek Falvey joins the Mets front office 1:17:39 Daniel Adler parts ways with the Twins 1:23:55 Longtime scouting executive Deron Johnson let go 1:25:15 Is Tom Pohlad reshaping the organization or just saving money? 1:30:24 A Thad Levine interview and offseason plans for the show

Twins Limping to the Finish Line Sep 18, 2026

Show notes

Aaron and John talk about the Twins limping to the finish line just like last season, trying to find glimpses of a brighter future with Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez, the outlook for Byron Buxton after hip surgery, and players who stepped up vs. dropped out of the team's long-term plans.

0:00 Intro 0:45 Why the game recaps have stopped: the Twins are playing out the string 2:21 Worst team in the American League down the stretch for a third straight year 3:50 15-27 since August 1: as bad as after the 2025 fire sale, and this time they were trying 6:38 John's counterpoint: at least there are rookies worth watching 9:02 "Something is fundamentally wrong": player development, injuries and defense 11:47 Derek Shelton, Jeremy Zoll, Tom Pohlad: new names, same organization 14:13 Are there basic philosophies that lead to the Twins fading every August and September? 16:48 The 72.5-win over/under, and the fear that a youth movement becomes an excuse not to spend 18:20 Ryan Jeffers as team MVP, and the veterans who won't be back in 2027 27:08 Byron Buxton hip surgery: what we know about the timeline for spring training 30:58 The play in Sacramento that ended Buxton's season 35:18 Buxton's contract: two years left, $15 million, full no-trade clause 37:43 Planning the 2027 Twins outfield: Buxton, Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Luke Keaschall, Alan Roden 40:19 The Twins need a bat at first base or DH, and they're losing Jeffers 42:17 Walker Jenkins breaks out: three hits and a game-tying homer off Ben Joyce's 101 mph fastball 44:21 Should the Twins be worried about Walker Jenkins? 51:11 Hrbek, Buxton, Koskie, Kepler: Twins who started just as badly 52:50 Emmanuel Rodriguez homers in his debut, then slumps. Life with rookies 55:15 Rodriguez and prospect "freezer burn": seven years on the radar and still only 23 59:36 How Walker Jenkins handled the media during his slump 1:03:46 Was 2026 a wasted season? Thumbs down on the post-hype prospects 1:05:18 Cleaning out the fridge: an empty fridge and a garbage can full of expired corn salad 1:07:25 Luke Keaschall is a leadoff hitter to build around, if they can find him a position 1:08:51 Brooks Lee's step forward: 25 homers and better defense at third base 1:10:14 Kaelen Culpepper holds his own; Matt Wallner washes out; Royce Lewis's brutal finish 1:14:19 Twins pitching: Taj Bradley and Connor Prielipp step up, Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan step back 1:15:09 Culpepper's hamstring injury, his defense at shortstop, and Marek Houston on the way 1:20:13 Why Culpepper staying under 130 at-bats helps the Twins' farm system rankings 1:22:23 Ben Ross auditions to be the backup shortstop: Ross vs. Ryan Kreidler 1:28:48 Kendry Rojas could return for a final outing or two 1:30:31 The last Twins games for Jeffers, Ober, Trevor Larnach, Lewis and Taylor Rogers? 1:32:59 The case for adding $50 million in payroll around a young, cheap core 1:37:54 Twins draft lottery watch: a top-seven pick is within reach 1:41:17 Wrap-up: John previews his trip to San Francisco and Oracle Park

Twins' Playoff Hopes Fade Away (Again) Sep 11, 2026

Show notes

Aaron and John talk about the Twins collapsing in the second half for the third straight season, why the worse they play the bigger the upcoming offseason becomes, the top reasons behind their struggles, and Matt Wallner knowing he's done in Minnesota.

0:00 Welcome: Twins on life support after Chicago and Detroit 3:13 Which of the three end-of-year collapses hurt the most? 4:17 Rock-bottom fan expectations vs. the 78-win projection 15:11 Wasted season or treading water? Who actually stepped forward 16:33 Did the Twins find a core on which to build? 20:02 Still waiting on Byron Buxton's hip surgery decision 25:03 Playoff ticket presale email lands during a collapse 25:47 The 2009 $100 bet: 4.5 games back with 16 to play 30:19 Is the fan base any more optimistic than a year ago? 31:51 Tom Pohlad's grace period is over: why this offseason matters 48:39 Joe Ryan's return start and the Connor Prielipp piggyback 50:14 Austin Martin activated, Gabriel Gonzalez optioned 53:51 Ryan Jeffers' nine straight starts and the Victor Caratini contract 56:41 Walker Jenkins: great plate discipline, whiffing on fastballs 1:00:35 Matt Wallner tells the Star Tribune he's done in Minnesota 1:07:59 Five reasons the season went south (Aaron's article) 1:08:28 Reason one: post-hype prospects who didn't step up 1:23:46 The core has moved on: Keaschall, Culpepper, Jenkins, Jeffers 1:26:37 Reason two: the offseason. Five signings, $16M, 1.7 WAR 1:32:33 Reason three: the bullpen. This was the plan 1:38:37 Reason four: the defense by the numbers 1:42:50 Reason five: injuries. Yeah, but 1:49:49 Why the lineup isn't the problem but still might need to be a focus 1:54:48 Wrap: Sweep Cleveland or bust

It's Now Or Never for the Twins Sep 04, 2026

Show notes

Aaron and John talk about the Twins' dwindling playoff chances with three weeks left, Byron Buxton admitting he'll eventually need hip surgery, Joe Ryan nearing a return, first impressions of Walker Jenkins, and takeaways from the Angels selling for $4 billion.

0:00 Intro 0:48 Twenty-two games left and a 3-3 homestand that wasn't enough 2:02 Playoff odds at nine percent, and the 14-8 finish they'd need 4:30 Resilient, or unable to handle success 6:38 Trying to avoid a third straight second-half collapse under an all-new regime 9:45 Now or never, starting with the White Sox in Chicago 11:47 The early-season bullpen and infield defense that cost them 13:00 Opponents' bad defense has handed the Twins 20-plus runs 14:33 The bad bullpen was the plan, and the plan worked 20:34 Byron Buxton says he needs hip surgery 23:48 When playing through pain stops helping the team 27:08 The 2023 knee surgery that bought Buxton three good years 32:17 First impressions of Walker Jenkins after a week 35:23 Why Culpepper hit right away and Jenkins hasn't 40:26 Why Jenkins is batting ninth, and where he belongs later 42:51 Watching a pennant race and the future at the same time 46:54 The last times the Twins got to do both at once 51:32 Garrett Acton up, Ben Ross up, Kyler Fedko released 55:43 Shelton explains why Emmanuel Rodriguez stayed at Triple-A 1:02:42 Joe Ryan's rehab start, and whether he skips the second one 1:08:51 What the final three weeks do to Joe Ryan's trade value 1:11:03 Connor Prielipp's workload, and stuff that hasn't faded 1:14:45 Andrew Morris opens a game, and his future in the bullpen 1:20:25 Matt Canterino pitches for the first time since 2022 1:26:00 The Angels sell for $4 billion after twenty years of failure 1:26:45 What the Padres sale should teach Tom Pohlad 1:31:40 Are the Twins suddenly worth $2.3 billion? 1:38:35 Back Monday on Patreon

Walker Jenkins Time Aug 28, 2026

Show notes

Aaron and John talk about the Twins calling up top prospect Walker Jenkins, why Byron Buxton's hip injury was the biggest factor, what to expect from the 21-year-old consensus top-10 prospect, and the team's shrinking playoff window after a brutal road trip.

0:00 Walker Jenkins is coming up! It's an Emergency! 2:17 Twins playoff odds fall from 40% to 10% after a 1-5 West Coast trip 5:33 Byron Buxton and Miguel Sanó in 2015 — which debut does Jenkins resemble? 8:49 Kaelen Culpepper set the bar for what a great three weeks looks like 10:17 Resiliency, or an inability to build on anything? 12:37 White Sox and Tigers at home: now or never in the AL Central 14:11 The call-up is about Byron Buxton's hip, not Jenkins' bat 15:57 The Triple-A prospect wave that injuries wiped out 22:44 Ticket sales, attendance and a packed press box for the debut 25:30 Luke Keaschall in center field has been rough 29:14 Jenkins' defense and the young Max Kepler defensive scouting report 34:18 Debunking the 40-man roster and lockout excuse for keeping Jenkins down 35:48 365 days at Triple-A: Jenkins has more experience than you think 38:39 The best Twins prospect since Buxton, and how few holes are in his game 50:46 Why Walker Jenkins' swing looks like Joe Mauer's 1:00:42 Target Field is a tough park for left-handed power 1:05:27 What's a good baseline for Jenkins? 1:06:59 Buxton, Mauer, Rivas, Guzmán, Ortiz: the five Twins to play at 21 years old 1:15:24 When does playing hurt stops being selfless? 1:19:00 The roster math: Buxton, Alex Jackson or Alan Roden — pick two 1:25:39 Joe Ryan is nearing a rehab assignment 1:27:14 Emmanuel Rodriguez is healthy, hot, and out of options 1:32:34 Vahn Lackey promoted to High-A after passing the lemon test 1:39:43 Aaron on the Dane Moore show — and the Jonathan Kuminga timing

Twins' Playoff Push Starts Now Aug 21, 2026

Show notes

Aaron and John talk about the Twins' having a playoff spot there for the taking with six weeks left, why the rotation desperately needs first-half Joe Ryan back, the dramatic in-season bullpen turnaround, why Alex Jackson is such an uninspired choice for a roster spot, and what lessons Tom Pohlad can learn from the Padres. 0:44 Swept by the Phillies, then a sweep of the Braves 2:32 Where things stand: 63-65 with 34 games left 3:32 Twins hold the final AL wild card spot — 40% playoff odds 4:20 Fourth-easiest remaining schedule in baseball 5:04 The seven-team wild card logjam 5:56 Tiebreakers: the Twins have them over almost everyone 8:14 AL Central odds and the six games left vs. the White Sox 12:16 Why the AL playoff field is wide open 15:52 What this season still has to accomplish 21:14 Last August's fire sale and the joylessness of a lost season 25:43 The rotation is the problem: worst ERA in the AL since the break 29:46 This rotation could really use Joe Ryan 35:06 Kendry Rojas as rotation depth at Triple-A 36:16 Derek Shelton's quicker hook 40:53 The bullpen is now the strength of the team 43:34 Reading the Opening Day bullpen out loud, one disaster at a time 52:17 Luke Keaschall is back to his rookie form 58:00 Royce Lewis and the shortage of right-handed bats 1:00:29 Why not Walker Jenkins? 1:01:39 The Alex Jackson move: DFA'd, cleared waivers, recalled two hours later 1:06:57 Byron Buxton isn't 100%, and Jenkins is a real center fielder 1:09:47 John pushes back: where do the at-bats come from? 1:16:52 Kaelen Culpepper's first 10 games 1:22:00 Attendance is down 83,000 1:27:23 What Tom Pohlad should take from the Padres sale 1:36:32 The 2023 payroll cut and kneecapped a five-year plan 1:42:07 Coming up: Padres, A's, then 15 straight vs. the AL Central

Field of Dreams, Buxton, and 15 Years Aug 14, 2026

Show notes

Aaron and John talk about the Twins playing the Field of Dreams game and the Bonnes' experience in Iowa, the return of Byron Buxton, what to make of Luke Keaschall, Kaelen Culpepper's debut, why calling up Walker Jenkins makes sense too, and celebrating the 15-year anniversary of the podcast. 0:00 Dubuque, Iowa and Aaron's Iowa exile 3:58 Netflix's Field of Dreams broadcast was rough 7:36 The "beloved" Pohlad ownership? 8:51 In the stands it didn't feel like a game that counts 11:59 MLB nailed the logistics including the walk through the corn 19:36 Super Bowl ticket prices, cheesesteaks and wild rice brats 21:13 Hunting Kyle Schwarber's homer in the cornfield 25:13 A national event, not a Twins broadcast 36:21 Byron Buxton returns, Taj Bradley lays an egg 37:07 Luke Keaschall's near-robbery of Schwarber 42:45 Keaschall's quiet .290/.400 since April 49:40 Reset: 60-63, 29% playoff odds, chasing the Tigers 56:04 Buxton back, Alex Jackson DFA'd 59:33 Walker Jenkins vs. Alan Roden 1:15:40 Joe Ryan's timeline 1:19:21 The RISP magic is gone 1:24:31 15 years of Gleeman and The Geek

Grading the Twins' Trade Deadline Aug 05, 2026

Show notes

Aaron and John recap the Twins' trade deadline moves to add Jeff Hoffman, A.J. Minter, and Dean Kremer, speculate about the moves they didn't make while keeping the lineup intact with Ryan Jeffers and Trevor Larnach, and wonder what's wrong with Joe Ryan. 0:00 Family Feud, Steve Harvey and we got a good one for you today 2:06 Twins add Jeff Hoffman, AJ Minter and Dean Kremer at the trade deadline 3:51 Twins slip below .500 while the AL wild card race stays wide open 5:35 Front office and ownership did their part — now the players have to play 7:52 A rebuilt bullpen is useless if you can't build the bridge to it 10:44 Tom Pohlad in Kansas City: payroll will rise, trust takes longer 14:14 Aaron gets punched in the shoulder by Tom Pohlad 15:51 The looming lockout and a possible $150 million payroll floor 20:08 Toronto sends $3.75 million to cover Jeff Hoffman's 2027 salary 22:14 Jeff Hoffman under control for 2027 at $7 million is the real prize 23:35 AJ Minter was the no-brainer; Dean Kremer cost a premium 24:53 Billy Amick and Bruin Agbayani go to the Mets for AJ Minter 27:45 Johnnardo Reyes, the 19-year-old given up for Dean Kremer 29:15 Dasan Hill headlines the Jeff Hoffman package to Toronto 31:41 Why the Twins traded low-minors upside instead of Double-A depth 36:10 Grading the deadline 39:24 A thin right-handed bat market 45:13 Get to know Jeff Hoffman 49:00 Losing the closer job to Louie Varland — the strangest domino of the fire sale 49:40 Why Hoffman's ERA lies: 97 mph, a 50 percent whiff slider, 12.3 strikeouts per nine 54:00 Why Shelton keeps Gomez as closer and uses Hoffman earlier 58:19 Dean Kremer and the 2024 scars: Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, rotation question marks 1:06:30 The trade that died: Trevor Larnach to Houston for Bryan Abreu, nixed by Jim Crane 1:11:37 Trevor Larnach's arbitration raise and his offseason trade market 1:13:19 Ryan Jeffers stays as the Rays and Red Sox pay up for catchers 1:16:01 The qualifying offer case: pay Ryan Jeffers $24 million next year 1:19:17 No bats added — Josh Bell, Larnach and the lineup stay intact 1:21:06 Kaelen Culpepper, Walker Jenkins and Byron Buxton's hip 1:27:39 The bullpen remodel: Hoffman, Gomez, Morris, Minter and Tommy Nance 1:29:38 Joe Ryan's discouraging start against the Royals 1:31:37 A 3.17 first-half ERA and a 4.93 second-half ERA — the most extreme split in Twins history 1:32:11 Joe Ryan's cryptic quotes and performance 1:36:25 Dead arm or something worse? 1:39:45 Why selling Joe Ryan stopped being an option once his trade value cratered 1:41:41 Joe Ryan's performance also affects the offseason. 1:44:51 Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton matter more than the entire deadline 1:48:56 Field of Dreams game in Iowa, Patreon Q&A Friday, and a wide-open American League

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