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    Get Rich Education

    This show has created more financial freedom for busy people like you than nearly any show in the world.

    Wealthy people’s money either starts out or ends up in real estate. But you can’t lose your time.

    Without being a landlord or flipper, you learn about strategic passive real estate investing to create wealth for yourself.

    I’m show host Keith Weinhold. I also serve on the Forbes Real Estate Council and write for Forbes.

    I serve you ACTIONABLE content for cash flow on a platter.

    Our bottom line in real estate investing together is: “What’s your Return On Time?” Where traditional personal finance merely helps you avoid losing, you learn how to WIN.

    Why live below your means when you can grow your means?

    Since 2002, international real estate investor Keith Weinhold owns multifamily apartment buildings to single family homes to agricultural real estate.

    New episodes are delivered every Monday.

    Advertise

    Copyright: © Keith Weinhold

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    Latest Episodes:
    467: Navigating Awful Housing Affordability - Rick Sharga Joins Keith Sep 18, 2023
    Show notes

    The Fed can raise interest rates, but they cannot create housing supply. Housing intelligence analyst Rick Sharga joins us for the second week in a row. This housing market is awful for primary residence homebuyers. But at GRE Marketplace, you can still buy income properties with rates as low as 4.75%. Rick tells us that the most prosperous markets now favor the: Midwest and Southeast, single-family homes, rental property investors with buy-and-hold strategies. National home prices are appreciating modestly. Home sales volume is still down. Investors now account for more than one-quarter of property purchases. Mortgage delinquencies are near an all-time low. Rick and I discuss why this market is so bad for flippers. High homeowner equity positions ($300K+) support this housing market. Timestamps: The impact of rising mortgage rates [00:02:37] Discussion on how the Federal Reserve's raising of short-term rates has caused mortgage rates to go up, affecting the housing market. The affordability challenge [00:03:38] Exploration of the impact of higher mortgage rates on homebuyers, particularly first-time buyers, and the decrease in affordability. Low supply of homes [00:08:48] Analysis of the low inventory of homes for sale, with a decrease of 9% from the previous year and 47% from 2019, leading to a challenging market. The mortgage rate lock in effect [00:11:05] Discussion on how the mortgage rate lock in effect can crimp demand but cannot create supply. Hottest markets in the Midwest and Southeast [00:11:05] Analysis of the hottest real estate markets in the Midwest and Southeast regions of the United States. Positive turn in home price appreciation [00:13:06] Explanation of how home price appreciation went down but has recently turned positive again. Housing Permits, Starts, and Construction [00:21:24] Discussion on the trends and levels of housing permits, starts, and construction, and the need for builders to increase production. Investor Activity in the Residential Market [00:22:28] Exploration of the percentage of home purchases made by investors, with a focus on small and medium-sized investors and the misconception of institutional investors dominating the market. Delinquencies and Foreclosures [00:24:36] Analysis of mortgage delinquency rates, foreclosure activity, and homeowner equity, highlighting the low delinquency rates, the presence of equity in foreclosed homes, and the importance of early-stage foreclosure sales. The future direction of rents [00:32:00] Discussion on the potential upward pressure on rents due to low affordability and high homeownership rate. Inventory coming to the market [00:33:03] Exploration of the impact of expensive inventory coming to the market and its effect on rent prices. The overall economy and housing market [00:34:03] Consideration of the possibility of a recession, unemployment spike, and foreclosures affecting the housing market. The coach's role in finding real estate deals [00:43:06] Explanation of how an investment coach can help you find the best real estate deals in the marketplace. Advantages of buying properties from marketplace [00:44:20] Reasons why buying properties from marketplace can lead to good deals, including lower prices and absence of emotional seller involvement. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: www.GetRichEducation.com/467 Rick Sharga's website: CJPatrick.com Rick Sharga on X (Twitter): @RickSharga Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text 'FAMILY' to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review" Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text 'GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Hold a terrific discussion today on the direction of the housing market, including lessons that you can learn for all time plummeting home sales volume and direly low home inventory. Why home price appreciation is taking place now. Could the government soon penalize you for owning too many rental properties? What's the best place for a real estate investor to position themselves in this era? And more today on Get Rich Education. (00:00:33) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get rich education. (00:00:56) - Walking from Horseheads, New York to Nags Head, North Carolina, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold. And you're listening. To get rich education, you are going to get a fantastic market update today. And along the way, you'll also learn lessons if you're consuming this 5 or 10 years from now. Our expert guest was with us last week to discuss the economy. This week, it's episode two of two as we discuss the real estate market. (00:01:25) - He has been the executive VP of markets at some of America's leading housing intelligence firms, and today he's the founder and CEO of Patrick Company, either a market intelligence firm for the real estate and mortgage markets. And he has 20 plus years of experience in those industries. It's the return of Rick Saga Part two of two. It's not imperative that you listen to last week's Part one of two that we can help you see the big picture. Enjoy this long, unbroken interview and then after the break, I'll come back to close it. Just you and I. We're talking with Rick Sagar, expert housing analyst, previously. We talked about the general condition of the economy. And now Rick and I are going to break down the housing market with what's happening there. There's so definitively connected. Keith One of the things to that the Federal Reserve has done by raising those short term rates is caused mortgage rates to go up, right? Mortgage rates tend to run loosely in line with the yields on the ten year US Treasury bonds that we talked about at the end of the first segment. (00:02:37) - Those are now up around 4%. And typically a 30 year fixed rate mortgage will be between one and a half and two percentage points higher than that yield. So in a normal market, we'd be looking at a mortgage rate today of about five and a half to 6%. Instead because of the risk and the volatility that the market is pricing in because they're not sure what the Federal Reserve is going to do next. We're looking at mortgage rates for a 30 year fixed rate loan of over 7%. The most recent numbers from last week from Freddie Mac, we were at almost 7.2% on that average, 30 year fixed rate loan and 6.5% on a 15 year fixed rate loan. You and I were talking before the show and and you know, historically speaking, if we keep these things in context, we're still actually below the 25 year average, which was 8%. But we have a whole generation of homebuyers who've come of age during the period of the lowest mortgage rates in the history of the country. They got spoiled, they got spoiled. (00:03:38) - And to be clear, it's one of the reasons that home prices rose as rapidly as they did and got as high as they are is because you could afford to make monthly payments with a two and a half, three, 3.5% mortgage. Now, you still have home prices about as high as they were then, and you have a mortgage rate that's doubled. And for most home buyers, particularly first time home buyers that make your monthly mortgage payment was going to go up by 45 to 60%. And most of us didn't get that 45 to 60% raise last year. It really had a huge impact on affordability. In fact, this is such an unusual occurrence that according to Freddie Mac, it's the only time in US history when mortgage rates doubled during a calendar year and they didn't just double in a calendar year. Keith They doubled in the space in a few months. It was that kind of systemic shock to the system that really hit the housing market as hard as it did. Right. And they've also nearly tripled in a pretty short period of time. (00:04:35) - Yeah, they really have. And again, going back historically speaking and and get this from Gen Z folks and millennials, when I talk about, you know, the old days of mortgage and I do remember my first mortgage had two numbers to the left of the decimal point. I forget if it was 11 or 12%, but it was something like that. And they basically say, okay, Boomer, but that 11% mortgage was on your $70,000 house, Right. And not, you know, today's median priced home of $430,000 or whatever it is. So it's a fair point. Mortgage rates are not high, historically speaking, but that monthly cost, because of the combination of home prices and higher interest rates, is choking some people and making affordability a problem. And because of that, one of the forward looking metrics that I take a look at is the purchase loan mortgage application index from the Mortgage Bankers Association. So this is the number of people that are applying for loans with the purpose of buying a house. (00:05:35) - They're off almost 30% on a year over year basis right now. You can see without straining your eyes at all the impact that these higher mortgage rates are having on the housing market. And we had almost record numbers of purchase loan applications from the time people who are allowed out of their house during the pandemic until these mortgage rates doubled from 2020 through the early part of 2022, mortgage rates were in the threes and fours and sometimes even in the twos. Yeah, everyone wants to talk about mortgage rates and it is an important discussion to have here at Marketplace with our investment coaches. Rick Some builders, as you know, they commonly offer rate buy down incentives to buyers of new homes. And what some of our providers are doing here, Rick, is we have one builder where if you use their preferred lender, they're buying down your income property's mortgage rate to 5.75%. And we have another builder where if you use their preferred lender, they're still buying down your mortgage rate to 4.75%. And of course, with Non-owner occupied property here, you know, previously you had talked about mortgage rates in excess of seven. (00:06:47) - They might normally be about 8% for non owner occupied property, but you're able to buy them down to five and three quarters or even four and three quarters with one of our providers for new builds right now, that's a great deal and your listener should really be taking advantage of those opportunities. We'll get into new homes in a few minutes and what we're seeing builders do for consumers, But have to tell you, those numbers are better deals than consumers are getting right now. And you're being generous when you're talking about private lending rates right now. Most of the lenders I'm familiar with are nine, ten, 11%, depending on the nature of your investment. So your folks are getting a great deal with those rates. We talked about purchase loan applications. The other advanced predictor I look at is pending home sales. These are people that are entering into contracts. The deal hasn't been closed yet. Has it been recorded yet? This comes out from the National Association of Realtors. And those numbers are down on a year over year basis as well. (00:07:42) - There's a lot of rate sensitivity in the market, though, Keith. And if you go back to March when rates went down just a fraction of a percent, we saw more purchase loan applications. We saw more pending home sales. But as rates have climbed back up over seven, we've seen both of these metrics go down. Yeah. So we're talking about pending home sales. We're talking about sales volume that's down in this discussion, not sales price. And anyone might be hard to say, but when you see sales volume that's down, including pending sales, how often is that due to worse affordability and how often is that due to low supply of homes? Why don't we jump right into that? Keith That's a great segue. And this is a very difficult time in the housing market because it has both of the factors that you just mentioned, two very difficult headwinds for the market to try and overcome. And and we'll get into details on both of those in just a minute. Because of that, existing home sales were down in July and they were down pretty significantly on a year over year basis, about 16%. (00:08:48) - And that's the 23rd consecutive month where existing home sales were lower than they were the prior year. January was the lowest month of sales this month, and it broke a streak we started this year. I was forecasting that we'd see between 4.3 and 4.4 existing home sales. That's down from about 5.2 last year in about 6.1 million the year before. Right now, we're trending at a little over 4 million existing home sales for the year. So even my relatively low forecast for the year may have been overly optimistic. You mentioned inventory and inventory is a huge headwind for the market. Inventory of homes for sale today is down about 9% from where it was a year ago. It's down 47% from where we were in 2019, which was probably the last normal year we've had in the housing market. In a normal year, we would be looking at about a six month supply of homes available for sale. That's what economists or housing market analysts will look at as a balanced market balance between supply and demand. We're at about two and a half months supply right now nationally and in many states it's much lower than that. (00:09:56) - So there's just not much out here. And the only reason the inventory number looks as good as it looks and it doesn't look very good is because it's taking a little longer to sell properties once they hit the market. If you were looking at new listing data, it's even worse. There's very little inventory coming to market in the way of new listings, and that's because of the rate increases we talked about a minute ago. 90% of borrowers with a mortgage have an interest rate on that mortgage of 6% or less. 70% have an interest rate of 4% or less. If you're sitting on a mortgage rate of 3.5% and you sell your house and buy a house at the same exact price with a 7% mortgage, you've just doubled your monthly mortgage payment. It's not that people psychologically don't want to trade a low rate for a high rate. There's a financial penalty for them doing so. And until we see mortgage rates come down a bit, probably into the fives, we're just not going to see a lot of inventory coming to market except for homeowners who need to sell or have so much equity and maybe you're going to downsize into a smaller property that they don't care about that kind of shift. (00:11:05) - Yeah, that is the mortgage rate lock in effect. Perfectly explain. And the Fed with the raising rates, they can crimp demand. But one thing that the Fed cannot do is create supply. As much as you might like to see Jerome Powell in work boots with a nail gun, that just doesn't happen. There's an image for you, for your listeners. Yeah, and I'm not sure I'd want to. I'd want to live in that house. That's not Chairman Powell building, but inspection. Yeah. Good economist. Maybe not a carpenter. We were talking about this a little bit earlier, too. And if you're an investor, this is probably worth not…

    Full show notes at the publisher

    466: Red Flags for an Economic Recession? Rick Sharga Joins Keith Sep 11, 2023
    Show notes

    In many world nations, if you're born poor, you stay poor. I discuss how in America, you can be upwardly mobile. Back in 2010, real estate prices had fallen, but rents had not. This created years of cash flow. Today, as prices have outpaced rents, cash flow keeps shrinking. Our Investment Coaches have access to income properties with 4.75% and 5.75% mortgage interest rates. It's a way to "bring back cash flow". Get started at GREmarketplace.com/Coach Terrific housing intelligence analyst Rick Sharga joins us for the first of two consecutive episodes. Rick & I discuss the condition of the American consumer, inflation and interest rates, concerns about a potential economic downturn, the housing market, the impact of consumer confidence on spending, and the actions taken by the Federal Reserve to control inflation. There's flagging consumer confidence and a yield curve inversion. Are these finally harbingers of an economic recession? Rick's informal survey of economists find that there's a 50-50 chance of a recession this cycle. Earlier this year, 80% of economists felt that a recession was imminent. If there is a recession this cycle, Rick thinks there's a probability that it will be mild. Average hourly wages are $28-29 / hour. Wage growth is 4-5%. Wages are finally running higher than home price appreciation. Timestamps: The Future of Real Estate Investing [00:01:33] Discusses how owning real estate can help individuals move into a different wealth class and the benefits of owning rental properties. Changes in the Real Estate Market [00:04:06] Explains how the real estate market has changed over the years, with property prices catching up to rents and the decrease in cash flow opportunities. Taking Advantage of Low Mortgage Rates [00:07:53] Highlights the opportunity for investors to take advantage of low mortgage rates offered by builders and the benefits of using their preferred lenders. (Yes, even here in 2023. We have 4.75% and 5.75% rates that builders buy down.) The housing market correction [00:11:31] Discussion on the correction in the housing market and its localized impact on different regions. Economic landscape of the United States [00:16:09] Overview of the US economy, including GDP growth and the strength of consumer spending. Wage growth and home price appreciation [00:20:16] Comparison of wage growth outpacing home price growth, impacting housing market affordability. Consumer Confidence and Spending [00:21:24] The correlation between consumer confidence and spending during the pandemic, the impact of subsequent waves of COVID, and the role of pent-up consumer demand and government stimulus. Red Flags in Consumer Spending [00:22:25] The disconnect between consumer spending and low confidence scores, the record level of consumer credit card use, and the decrease in personal savings rates. Inflation and the Federal Reserve [00:25:44] The high inflation rate in 40 years, the actions taken by the Federal Reserve to control inflation, the impact on housing costs, and the potential for a recession. Yield Curve Inversion and Recession Predictions [00:31:07] Discussion on the yield curve inversion and its historical correlation with recessions. Impact of Recession on the Housing Market [00:32:04] Exploration of the potential impact of a recession on the housing market. Part Two: State of the Housing Market and Future of Investment Real Estate [00:33:03] Teaser for the next episode, which will analyze the state of the housing market and the future of investment real estate. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: www.GetRichEducation.com/466 Rick Sharga on X (Twitter): @RickSharga Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text 'FAMILY' to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review" Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text 'GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Today, it's part one of two of my exclusive interview with one of the nation's foremost housing intelligence analysts. How's the condition of today's American consumer? What's the future of inflation, the Fed interest rates? And should you really be concerned about a downturn today on get rich education? Corey Coates (00:00:28) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get rich education. Keith Weinhold (00:00:51) - Welcome from Orange County, Florida, to Orange County, California, and across 188 nations worldwide. You're listening to one America's longest running and most listened to shows on real estate. With nearly nine years of weekly episodes. You're listening to Get Rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Wine expert, housing and mortgage analyst Rick Sugar is back and he is figuratively waiting in the wings. Here to give us an update on the economy shortly. In many nations of the world, if you are born poor, you stay poor. It's really hard to change wealth classes because you can't own anything in so many world places. Keith Weinhold (00:01:33) - If you're born middle class, you also stay middle class. There's no way out of that. Owning real estate is the number one way to move yourself into a different wealth class. Owning your own business is another way, but with owning real estate, it's quite easy to follow a template and do what someone else has already done. Within a proven system. You don't have to have a new out-of-the-box business idea. For example, in the US, if you start collecting assets that pay you each month, you can quickly become upwardly mobile. In America, even if you were born into poverty and have a long line of impoverishment in your family, you can own your own home and that can help you go from poor to middle class. You can add rental properties and go from poor or middle class to wealthy because if you're in the US you are allowed to own things. Yeah, keep accumulating properties and keep getting rent money from tenants. In so many nations of the world. If you come from modest means, you just cannot get dozens of people or hundreds of people to pay you one third of their income every month. Keith Weinhold (00:02:52) - But here you can get all these tenants to pay you one third of their salary in rent so you can close that class divide. It's up to you. That's what makes the US great. You can move into a different wealth class, the GSEs, the government sponsored enterprises. They will even give you backing on a bank loan so that you can do this. They're really encouraging this and enticing you to do this with as little as a 3% down payment on your primary residence or 20% down on rental properties. It's like they're almost forcing you to succeed. And there's even a 1% down program for primary residences now available in some places. So the bank gives you the loan, the tenant pays you the rent, and the government gives you the tax break. Like I say, that right there is using other people's money three ways at the same time, the bank, the tenant and the government, it all sort of falls in your lap if you want it to, but you do have to ask for it and you do have to do some arranging and you need to be diligent and attentive to. Keith Weinhold (00:04:06) - But most Americans, they just aren't wise to this. Now, the real estate market, it has changed from a few years ago. It was spring of 2020 where we had that big inflection point, as you know, because I often discuss it. That was that supply crash. And since that time, home prices have run up faster than rents. But I'd like to give you some broader perspective here. There's something important with real estate investing that you may not have realized coming out of the global financial crisis 2008, 2009, 2010. At 2010, when we really started to lift up out of the rubble because by 2010, property prices were still down low. They were near the rock bottom. They're even lower than replacement costs in a lot of markets, which was artificially low. But see, rents didn't really fall much in the GFC. Rents stayed the same. So you know what happened in 2010 and all the years following it will cash flow began. And that's because all over America you then had these high rents and low purchase prices that had been beaten down by the GFC. Keith Weinhold (00:05:18) - Cash flow like that wasn't really normal, but by now property prices have caught up to rents and even surpassed them. So besides investors being used to low mortgage rates, these ultra low rates, they also got used to this ultra high ratio of rent income to purchase price. That's just not there like it used to be. So today, in more places, you can't expect much of anything for cash flow now with a few years of. Income property ownership. Say if you bought something late this year, a few years later, now you shouldn't count on it. But rents, as we know, historically rise to then start providing you with cash flow to complement the other four ways that you're simultaneously paid. So my point is that today the deals aren't as good as they were ten years ago and five years ago, and that is all part of the provenance and perspective that I'm sharing with you from the real estate investing landscape starting from back around 15 years ago. But today I posit that it is still difficult to find a better place to invest a dollar than with a loan on carefully bought income property. Keith Weinhold (00:06:31) - And I have some really good news for you here. All right. We know higher mortgage rates. They're not just a pain point for first time homebuyers and second time homebuyers for that matter, but they're a pain point for you, the investor. Well, if you didn't already know, we have largely sort of that problem here at Gray. And that is why investors like you are still snapping up rental properties fast. From Marketplace today, owner occupied mortgage rates are about 7% in income. Property rates are about 8%. But because of the strength of our marketplace networks and relationships here we have one new build provider offering a mortgage rate of 5.75%. Yes, they will see that your mortgage rate is bought down to 5.75% for your purchase. Yes, right here in today's environment, another new build investment property provider is offering a buy down to 4.75%. Yes, you heard that right. And we have another builder provider where our investment coaches have been sharing with you a 2.99% seller financing option. So is cash flow back? Yes, a lot of times it is. Keith Weinhold (00:07:53) - The builders know that it's a pain point for buyers and our coaches and I hear a Gary know it too, So we have rubbed salve on the wound here, I suppose. 5.75% interest rates, 4.75 or even 2.99. At times you'll have to use the builders preferred lender to get those terms. Otherwise I like to use Ridge lending Group because they specialize in income property loans. There is even more to it. These builders are in business to move property, so take advantage of it. And besides buying down your mortgage rate for you like that, some are even waiving their property management fee for you for the first year, in addition to buying down the rate and don't know how long all this is going to last. So this could be a really good time for you to contact your investment coach. Your coach will help you shop the marketplace properties, tell you where the real deals are and tell you how to get those improbably low mortgage rates for income properties. Your coach guides you and makes it easy for you If you don't have an investment coach yet, just go to Marketplace slash coach and they're there to help you out. Keith Weinhold (00:09:11) - Hey, it's really great to have the savvy and the experience of Rick Shaka back on the show today. His mind is always in the market. He's often doing these public speaking appearances informing audiences about it. He's been the executive vice president of markets at some of America's leading housing intelligence firms. We have so much to discuss that Today's episode is part one of two back to back episodes with Rick. This week, we'll discuss the direction of the economy. Next week, we'll go deep on the housing market. But even our discussion on the economy today is probably going to be viewed through the lens of having real estate investors in mind. So this intelligence is fresh and it is timely here in fall of 2023. But even if you're listening to this, a decade from now, in 2033, you are going to get lessons for all time. It's the economy this week and the real estate market next week. It could be a day or two until we have today's episode on Get Rich Education YouTube. But you can watch us there as well if you want the visuals and charts that complement our discussion. Keith Weinhold (00:10:19) - Many of the sources that he cites today will be from Trading economics in the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. What's the present and future of the economy, especially as it pertains to real estate investor interest with Rick and I straight ahead. I'm Keith Reinhold in this is get rich education. Jerry listeners can't stop talking about their service from Ridge Lending Group and MLS 42056. They've provided our tribe with more lows than anyone. They're truly a top lender for beginners and veterans. It's where I go to get my own loans for single family rental property up to four Plex's So start your prequalification and you can chat with President Charlie Ridge personally, though, even deliver your custom plan for growing your real estate portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending Group. You know, I'll just tell you for the most passive part of my real estate investing personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in. Returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25. Keith Weinhold (00:11:31) - K. You don't even need to be accredited. For some of them, it's all backed by real estate and I kind of love how the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 668660, and this isn't a solicitation If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to 66866. This is real estate investment cogeneration. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your day dream. And you're going to get a fantastic market update today. And you're also going to learn lessons even if you're consuming this 5 or 10 years from now. Our expert guest was first with us here six months ago. He's been the executive VP of markets at some of America's leading housing intelligence firms. He was twice named to the Inman News Inman 100 most influential real estate leaders. Keith Weinhold (00:12:54) - He is one of the country's most frequently quoted sources on real estate, mor…

    Full show notes at the publisher

    465: Unearthing the Wealth of Gold Sep 04, 2023
    Show notes

    Why is gold even worth anything in today's modern world? Isn't it just a lump of metal?

    In fact, I tell today's guest that I believe gold is a poor wealth creation vehicle.

    Our guest is Dana Samuelson, Founder and Owner of American Gold Exchange. He's one of the most influential, pedigreed and respected names in the gold industry.

    Major central banks have been hoarding gold recently—like Russia and China. Last year, central banks bought the most gold on record. We discuss why.

    A recent survey found that only 11% of Americans own gold.

    The case for owning gold: no counterparty risk, millennia of value, liquidity, limited supply, it's like "money insurance".

    The case against gold: storage burden, no yield, few industrial applications, difficult to lever.

    Though gold is historically a poor wealth *creation* vehicle, it's excellent for long-term wealth *storage*. Dana generally agrees with me there.

    Most gold that's been mined in world history still exists today.

    Learn how to identify fake gold.

    Dana discusses how you can store your gold.

    You effectively pay "closing costs" on bullion. I describe.

    We also quickly cover: silver, platinum, and palladium.

    Resources mentioned:

    Show Notes:

    www.GetRichEducation.com/465

    American Gold Exchange:

    www.AmerGold.com

    info@amergold.com

    1-800-613-9323

    Get mortgage loans for investment property:

    RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE

    or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

    Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text 'FAMILY' to 66866

    Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review"

    Top Properties & Providers:

    GREmarketplace.com

    GRE Free Investment Coaching:

    GREmarketplace.com/Coach

    Best Financial Education:

    GetRichEducation.com

    Get our wealth-building newsletter free—

    text 'GRE' to 66866

    Our YouTube Channel:

    www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation

    Follow us on Instagram:

    @getricheducation

    Keith's personal Instagram:

    @keithweinhold


    464: Avid GRE Listener Buys 11 Rental Properties in 4 Years. Here's What Happened. Aug 28, 2023
    Show notes

    Today's guest, Shawn Finnegan, failed in California real estate investing pre-2008. But in 2019 he listened to GRE, came back, and succeeded.

    He now benefits from $2,000 in monthly residual cash flow from 11 Memphis income properties. He wants a fourplex next.

    Shawn and his family moved from Los Angeles, CA to Costa Rica where he now lives financially-free.

    He's a former abdominal model, appearing on magazine covers. He invented "The Anchor Gym" home gym system.

    By listening to GRE, he had the confidence to invest with our "Financially-Free Beats Debt-Free" mantra.

    "Don't Quit Your Daydream" resonates with him most.

    Resources mentioned:

    Show Notes:

    www.GetRichEducation.com/464

    The Anchor Gym:

    www.TheAnchorGym.com

    Get mortgage loans for investment property:

    RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE

    or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com

    Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text 'FAMILY' to 66866

    Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review"

    Top Properties & Providers:

    GREmarketplace.com

    GRE Free Investment Coaching:

    GREmarketplace.com/Coach

    Best Financial Education:

    GetRichEducation.com

    Get our wealth-building newsletter free—

    text 'GRE' to 66866

    Our YouTube Channel:

    www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation

    Follow us on Instagram:

    @getricheducation

    Keith's personal Instagram:

    @keithweinhold


    463: America's Frightening Homeless Problem, Crazy Investing Manias—Tulip Bulbs, Beanie Babies Aug 21, 2023
    Show notes

    More homeless people have been created due to the housing supply crisis. Homelessness is up 11% since last year, per the WSJ. The opioid crisis, consumer inflation, and NIMBYism have contributed too. California has the most homelessness on both a total and per capita basis. States with higher housing costs have more homeless people. I share our poll results: "Should we pay to house the homeless?" Are you a NIMBY? We find out today. We can increase housing supply with rezoning, construction training, and lower mortgage rates. The cycle of investor emotions led to wild investing manias. It was tulip bulbs in the 1600s Netherlands and Beanie Babies in the 1990s United States. I discuss exactly why "buy low, sell high" is more difficult than it sounds. Timestamps: The correlation between homelessness and the housing market [00:00:00] Discusses the relationship between the housing market and the increasing problem of homelessness in America. Investing manias and lessons from history [00:00:00] Explores the phenomenon of investing manias and the lessons that can be learned from historical examples. The tight inventory market conditions and potential solutions [00:04:56] Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors, discusses the tight housing market conditions and suggests tax incentives to increase housing supply. Timestamp 1 [00:10:32] Affordability of moving to different cities and the proposal of a tax incentive for real estate investors. Timestamp 2 [00:11:49] Discussion on the housing supply crisis, mortgage rates, and the homeless population in the US. Timestamp 3 [00:14:14] Increase in homelessness in America, reasons behind it, and the correlation between housing prices and homelessness rates. The impact of high density housing on quality of life and home value [00:21:12] Discussion on the potential negative effects of building high density housing near single family homes, including reduced home value, increased traffic and noise, and loss of nearby open space. Alternative solutions to increase housing supply and reduce homelessness [00:23:30] Exploration of alternative measures to address homelessness, such as trade training for the homeless and relaxing excessive safety requirements in home building. Giving real change to the homeless [00:25:50] Encouragement to give directly to homeless shelters or soup kitchens instead of giving small change to individuals on the street, with the concept of "give real change not small change" explained. Note: The timestamps provided are approximate and may vary slightly depending on the podcast episode. The Origins of Tulip Mania [00:31:37] Tulips were introduced to Europe in the 1500s and became a luxury item for the affluent. The cultivation of tulips locally in the Netherlands led to a flourishing business sector. The Tulip Bubble [00:32:55] By 1634, tulip mania had swept through the Netherlands, with the demand for tulip bulbs exceeding supply. Prices reached exorbitant levels, and futures contracts were being bought and sold. Lessons from Tulip Mania [00:37:53] Tulip mania serves as a model for financial bubbles, with similar cycles observed in other speculative assets like beanie babies, baseball cards, NFTs, and stocks. It highlights the dangers of excess, greed, and speculation without tangible value. The cycle of investor emotions [00:44:32] Explanation of the different stages of investor emotions, from optimism to panic, in relation to stock market investing. The peak of the stock market [00:46:43] Discussion on the peak of the stock market being the point of maximum financial risk and the difficulty of selling at the right time. Real estate as a stable investment [00:51:56] Comparison of real estate investment to speculative bubbles, highlighting the stability and income stream provided by real estate. Explains how the integration of HOA (Homeowners Association) helps maintain uniformity and cleanliness in the rental property investing world. Details about the upcoming real estate event [00:38:31] Promotion of a live event where listeners can learn about new construction fourplexes and have their questions answered in real time. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: www.GetRichEducation.com/463 Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text 'FAMILY' to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review" Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text 'GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold Complete episode transcript: Welcome to Get Rich Education. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. America's homeless problem has become FRIGHTENING. I describe how that correlates… with the housing market. Then, investing MANIAS. What drives people to spend more for one tulip flower bulb than they would for an entire luxury home? And lessons you can learn that'll benefit you the rest of your life from other manias throughout history. All today, on Get Rich Education. ___________ Welcome to GRE! From Seaford, DE to Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA and across 188 nations worldwide, you're listening to one of America's longest-running and most listened to shows on real estate investing. Along with plenty of ongoing hot takes on wealth mindset and the real estate economy. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. See, the crash in the SUPPLY of available American homes is bad and it isn't just creating more upward prices, it's a contributor to homelessness. Let's talk about some of the drivers of homelessness, understand the problem a little more, how many homeless people ARE there in America, and then… what can we do about it? As you'll soon see, one prominent real estate industry influencer actually suggests that you actually SELL your rental single family homes in order to help serve the homeless. More on that shortly. Also, I have the results from a GRE Instagram Poll. The poll question is: "Should we pay to HOUSE the homeless?" And the answers that you - the GRE listeners gave… actually surprised me. I'll give you those super-interesting poll results later, because I have more to explain there. But first, what IS a homeless person? Let's define it. I think most anyone knows that since it's a person without a home, it's thought of as living on the street. Really, then, that person might not be homeless but "houseless" in a literal sense. Even if they live in a tent under a bridge, that is then, their home. Though it might be INADEQUATE housing. More accurately, the unsheltered or undersheltered population could be more apropos. Then there's vagrancy. A vagrant is defined as a person without a settled home OR regular work… who wanders from place to place and lives by begging. So vagrants are PART of the homeless population then. This all helps DEFINE what we're discussing. Now, the lack of available American housing supply - especially the affordable segment - is OBVIOUSLY a big contributor to homelessness. For example, anymore, how many builders even construct a new-build entry-level home for $200 or 250K? Practically nobody… anywhere. And just how bad is the supply problem now? Well, the NAR has been tracking housing supply since 1982 and it just hit its lowest level ever this summer - EVER - and that's in 40+ years of tracking. That's one reason why just last week, it was announced that Warren Buffett is making a big bet on housing by investing in homebuilders. Now to keep consistent with the same stats I've been reporting to you for you, to update that, again 1-and-a-half million available homes is the baseline supply. That's the long-term "normal" per the FRED Active listing count. And through last month, it's still under 650,000. That is STILL a housing SUPPLY crash of 57% from its peak of 1 ½ million. I want you & I to listen to this upcoming piece together. This recent interview with NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun is from the 8th of this month. Yes, HE is the one that basically wants you to sell your SF rental properties. And he makes his case for an inducement to get you to do this. (Ha!) He's not proposing anything COMPLETELY ludicrous. It's REALLY interesting. Listen closely for that. This about 5 minutes in length and there's a lot of material here within this clip - a nutrient dense piece, so I've got SO much to say about this when I come back to comment. [Yun clip] Yeah, the NAR Chief Economist there talking about how, much like I have for years, great opportunity is in the Midwest and Southeastern parts of the US. With this greater ability for people to work from anywhere, when people move in from the pricy coasts, it's sooo affordable to them. Moving from Manhattan to Cincinnati feels incredibly affordable. Moving from San Francisco to St. Louis feels like you've upgraded from serfdom to a kingdom. Moving from Boston to Jacksonville feels like a total life makeover. That's why, here at GRE, we're focused on properties in those INbound destinations. Before I continue, especially for those outside the US, I know that it seems a little odd that Ohio and Indiana are in what we call the Midwest when they're actually in the northeastern quadrant of the nation. But the fact that they ARE midwestern states is rooted in history and in cultural tradition. So, getting back some new angles on the housing supply crisis. Lawrence Yun proposed that a tax incentive be introduced to unleash the inventory of SF rentals from individual REIs. And says that there are over 20 million single-family housing units that are rented out. If we reduced or canceled the capital gains tax & just got 1% of that inventory on the market, he states that that would help. Well, yeah, but even that then would only put about 200,000 units of the market - and they'd get snatched up so fast. Now, if mortgage rates come down to say, 5%, it would unleash both housing demand AND supply. Both - like Lawrence Yun says. So it's not apparent that that would help this shortage, if both demand and supply go up. In a nation of about one-third of a BILLION people now - that's how I like to express it this year - America now has one-third of a billion people… also known as 333 million - how many do you think are classified as homeless? As you think about that - as you think about how many of America's 333 million Americans are homeless, this homeless population figure that I'm about to share with you is from HUD and it's through last year, so it's their latest year-end figure. And I'll tell ya, it's hard to believe this number. The Department of Housing and Urban Development states that about 582,000 Americans are experiencing homelessness. Now, how HUD does this is that their number is a snapshot of the homeless population as of a single night at the end of January each year. The total number of people who experience homelessness for SOME PERIOD each year will be higher than that. I just did the math and then that means that just 1 in every 572 Americans are homeless. C'mon. Do you believe that? Only one in every 572 Americans are homeless? I might believe that it's something like more than 1 in 200. What are your thoughts? Even HUD would probably concede that there are shortcomings in that stat and that it's only a starting point. And over the last decade, according to HUD, the homeless population is little changed… apparently until just this past year. Homelessness is surging in America. The number of people experiencing homelessness in the US has increased 11% so far this year over 2022. That would be the biggest jump by far in equivalent government records beginning in 2007. Now this 11% homeless jump is according to a WSJ analysis of hundreds of smaller & local agencies. Most agencies say the alarming rise is because of the lack of affordable housing and rental units, and the ongoing opioid crisis. Inflation is part of that affordable housing problem. Inflation widens the disparity between the haves and have-nots. To cut some slack to census-type of surveying, homelessness can be hard to measure. Some live on skid row, some live in the woods, some homeless people live in their cars. Some aren't interested in being counted. Others are essentially invisible. I mean, if someone's between jobs and needs to couch surf at their aunt and uncle's place for three months, are they homeless or not? So, to be sure, there's a lot of leeway in those numbers. One in 572 as homeless - that should just be a minimum - a starting point in my opinion. Now, homelessness broken down by STATE is really interesting. California at 171,000, has the most of any state, more than double of next-most New York, and then Florida is third. But let's break that down by rate - on a per capita basis. So… think of this as the highest CONCENTRATION of homeless: Washington DC has 65 homeless per 10,000 people. That's not really a state though, so… #1 on a per capita basis is STILL California, with 44 per 10,000. So California leads in the nation in homeless on both bases then - both absolute and relative. The second highest rate is Vermont. Third Oregon Fourth Hawaii Fifth is New York And then numbers 6 through 10 on the most homeless per capita are Washington, Maine, Alaska, Nevada, and Delaware. Now, strictly anecdotally. You've probably seen just what I've seen in the last year-plus - more visible homeless people in your city and other cities. The state with the FEWEST homeless of all 50 states is Mississippi - and see, housing is quite affordable there. MS is one of the most affordable states for housing. There is at least SOME correlation between your cost of housing and homelessness. Recently on our Instagram page, and the handle there is easy to remember - it's @getricheducation - if you want to participate in future polls, we ran a poll on homelessness. Here is the poll question that we ran - and I'd like you to think about your answer to this too. "Should we pay to house the homeless?" That's the question. And in polling, the way that the question is phrased, of course, can skew your answer. See, if instead, we phrased it as, "Should the government house the homeless?" you might have more 'yes' answers - even though it's the same question - because you FUND the government. But the question as we phrased it: "Should we pay to house the homeless?" - it also showed a photo of vagrants on a street curb under the question. Here we the results, which surprised me, to: Should we pay to house the homeless? Those answering "Yes" were just 6% The no's were 45% But we also had a third option: "It's complicated". 48% answered with that option. So again, just 6% of you said we should pay to house the homeless and 45% said "no". "48% said it's complicated". In a way, that makes sense to me since we have a largely entrepreneurial, self-made type of audience. I thought that might have happened. But what surprised me is in how emphatic it was. It was a landslide. 7 to 8 TIMES as many of you said we should not pay for the homeless as those that said we should. Well, the reason that I added - and I'm the one that ran the poll myself - they're quick to do. I added the paying to house the homeless…

    Full show notes at the publisher

    462: How Often Do Home Prices Fall? Homeownership Rate, Join Our Live Event Aug 14, 2023
    Show notes

    Get our free "Don't Quit Your Daydream" Letter. Text 'GRE' to 66866. Home prices fell three times since 1975. We explore the reasons why. The homeownership rate is 66% today. (The long-term average is 65%.) I expect the homeownership rate to fall due to low affordability, which will increase renter households. If you have dollars in a savings account that pays 5% interest, I describe why you're losing prosperit. Our Investment Coach, Aundrea & I discuss the state of the real estate market. Then we discuss our upcoming live event for new-build Utah fourplexes. They produce cash flow, have great tenant amenities and come with built-in equity. This area is extremely fast-growing: Register here. Timestamps: National Home Prices Fall and Causes [00:00:01] Discussion on the historical trends of national home prices, the causes of price falls, and the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis. Housing Affordability Crisis [00:00:50] Exploration of the current state of housing affordability and the impact of the pandemic on home prices. Upcoming Real Estate Event [00:01:44] Announcement of an informative live real estate event that listeners are invited to join. The current state of housing affordability [00:11:45] Discussion on the challenges faced by first-time homebuyers due to higher prices, mortgage rates, and lending requirements. Homeownership rate trends [00:13:11] Analysis of the historical homeownership rates, including the impact of aging population and low affordability on the rate. Future outlook for homeownership rate [00:19:40] Prediction of a decline in the homeownership rate below the current 66% due to poor affordability and increasing number of renters. Rental Market Overview [00:24:10] Discussion on the current state of the rental market, including cash flowing properties, stable prices, and limited inventory. Demand for Investment Opportunities [00:26:14] Exploration of the demand from investors who are looking to invest their existing equity and the regions they are interested in, such as the Southeast and Midwest. New Build Income Properties [00:28:14] Introduction of a provider offering new construction fourplexes in the Intermountain West, discussing the market growth, population demographics, and amenities of the properties. The opportunity for new build properties in a fast growth area [00:34:59] Discussion on the benefits of investing in new construction properties in a rapidly growing area with good cash flow. The role of HOA in maintaining property values [00:36:04] Explains how the integration of HOA (Homeowners Association) helps maintain uniformity and cleanliness in the rental property investing world. Details about the upcoming real estate event [00:38:31] Promotion of a live event where listeners can learn about new construction fourplexes and have their questions answered in real time. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: www.GetRichEducation.com/462 Join our Utah fourplexes live event: GREwebinars.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text 'FAMILY' to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review" Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text 'GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold Complete episode transcript: Welcome to GRE! I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Historically, just how often DO national home prices fall… and what causes it? Then, learn more about how TODAY'S housing affordability is absolutely awful. Then, our informative live real estate event that you're invited to join. All today, on Get Rich Education. __________ Welcome to GRE! From Pennsylvania's MONongahela River to Mono Lake, CA and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold and you are listening to our one big weekly show. This is Get Rich Education. "Real estate never goes down." Yeah, a handful of people actually told me those five exact words in the mid-2000s decade. "Real estate never goes down." Of course, 2008's Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and Mortgage Meltdown proved them ALL wrong. And ya know what, I've never heard one single person utter those words since! Late last year, national home prices took just a small dip for a few months on a m-o-m basis. That's not something that often happens though. So as minor as THAT was, that's the event that actually precipitated the creation of this segment of our episode. There's a colorful chart that provides a… terrific visual of the month-over-month shifts in US home prices, per Case-Shiller, dating back to 1975. And if you're one of our "Don't Quit Your Daydream" letter subscribers, you got to see it last week. Winston Churchill said, "The farther backward you can look, the farther FORward you can see." I don't know that I've contributed anything quite that proverbial to the world on that exact subject yet. I just say that when it comes to future expectations, I favor "history over hunches". So, before we look at WHY home prices historically fall, first of all, why go back to 1975 when we're looking at a history of home prices. Why that slice of time, 1975 to present? Well, that's almost 50 years. It's two generations, so it stops just short of your grandfather's generation which was back when the dollar was still pegged to gold. Here's what we can we learn from almost 50 years of home price history on a relatively untethered dollar: Nominal home prices usually rise, but not always. This is NOT inflation-adjusted. That's the first takeaway. Of the 500 to 600 little rectangles, that's how many months there have been since 1975, they're nearly all blue, which means prices rose. Before we center on the red areas, which is when & where prices dipped… The next thing I can tell you is that it shows that home prices are remarkably stable. A SEASONAL fluctuation is quite apparent. Year after year, home price growth is weaker in winter and stronger in summer. But do you know how many times national home prices have dipped since 1975? Any idea? It is… three. Three periods of falling prices in the last… 48 years. Those periods were the erstwhile Global Financial Crisis period from 2007 to 2011, then that tiny dip that occurred in the last few months of last year. That was due to a late pandemic slowdown. Before I tell you about the other time, that third time, that so few discuss, let me tell ya, the 2008 GFC went deep red. Most markets had losses of 20% or more. I WAS an active RE investor at that time. And that downturn was caused by irresponsible lending, rampant speculation, and an OVERsupply of housing. That's well documented. Look around today, and we don't have any of those conditions today. Today it's tough lending standards, no wild speculation, and oppositely, as you know, it's that STARK UNDERsupply of housing. But few people seem to know about an earlier attrition in prices. It was a mild early '90s downturn. It was really small, just a percent or two per year in a lot of places, but it persisted for more than 5 years. I think a lot of people DON'T KNOW about that small early '90s downturn, that's why before the Global Financial Crisis, they said what we all know to be false, "Real estate never goes down." The start of the '90s. That's before my time - I mean, I was alive but not old enough to be investing, so I had to do some research about what caused prices to circle the drain just a little. And to boil it down, it occurred for two main reasons - it was from defaults created by high household debt and also, adjustable-rate mortgages kicking in, making those homeowners pay higher rates - and some couldn't pay it. So as we look back like Winston Churchill to get lessons from history, I like to look at today's landscape and see if we have any of those two early '90s conditions. High household debt? Well, rather, really this era's aberration is the opposite condition. Today it's households sitting on a lot of cash and equity. And then the second reason for the early '90s price dip - adjustable rate mortgages kicking in. Well, that is affecting the commercial space, not the residential side, where homeowners have now been long accustomed to FIXED rate debt. Now, before we look into the future of home prices - and I've got some good stats there… To summarize, the top takeaways from 48 years of looking at monthly HP growth are that: Prices typically rise, not always Prices are remarkably stable Prices rise more in the summer than the winter And that historically, let's distill it down to three - three chief culprits for falling prices are an OVERsupply of homes, irresponsible lending, and a distressed borrower Now, with housing, people tended to use the word "uncertainty" a lot - really, constantly, ever since the pandemic began in 2020. Now, I think that we can finally say that the clouds have begun to clear. Though, of course, we never have 100% clairvoyance. Most everyone is confident that the majority of interest rate hikes are done, inflation has come down, mortgage rates are back at historic NORMS right now actually, and home prices are rising at historic NORMS again too. You have all this money sloshing around the economy that is still fueling consumer wealth from the pandemic. All this money sloshing around AGAINST a low housing supply, and with more economic certainty. All this really has a lot of people more bullish than I've seen in a couple years. Homebuilder confidence is really surging right now. And looking into the next year, more and more analysts are now forecast increasing national home prices. Fannie Mae recently revised their forecast upward to 3.9% appreciation for THIS YEAR. CoreLogic now expects prices 4.3% higher from June of this year to of next year. And Zillow expects 6.3% price appreciation over this same time period. And, our core investor areas have just kept climbing and really didn't experience last year's slowdown at all. I guess this isn't necessarily good news, right? The bad news might be that there's no price BREAK. Higher RATES still didn't break the market. Now, I've heard some analysts at real estate research firms speculate that if INTEREST RATES fall in the next year with all these other favorable conditions that 10% HPA is possible. I'd say, that's speculative alright. It's so hard to predict future interest rates that I'm not willing to do it. And like I've shared with you here, which is contrary to what people USED to believe, it's that: Mortgage rates really don't have that much to do with home prices! So when it comes to home prices over the next couple years, I think that the most commonsense expectation is slow price growth and stability. Now, just wait until you see what's happening with the homeownership rate today. I want to share that with you shortly. Before we get back to RE, let's Zoom out for a moment and look at the broader investing landscape while we're here at mid-quarter. Bitcoin is getting less volatile than stocks. That's one trend lately. Another way to say that though, is that bitcoin prices are in a period of historic stagnation. Gold has fallen from the $2,000 an ounce mark that it touched recently. Oil prices have been on a multi-month tear, but you know, when you look at it on an inflation-adjusted basis, which so many people forget to do, oil at under $100 a barrel feels inexpensive. Elsewhere in investing, some online savings accounts have hit the 5% yield mark. That might sound good when you consider that inflation has backed off. But as most agree that the CPI is understated, if you think that the true diminished purchasing power of the dollar is 5% and your savings account rate is 5%, aren't you at least treading water? Well, first of all, just treading water means that you aren't going anywhere or growing. But you're not even treading water. Because don't forget that your interest earnings on savings accounts get taxed. So it's good to hold some liquidity - always. But you're likely underwater with a 5% savings account in this era. Yes, on your interest earnings, you're taxed at your earned income tax rate, between 10 and 37%. Say that you're in the 32% tax bracket. Well then, real inflation is 5% and your 5% savings account only yielded 3.4%. On an inflation-adjusted basis, even if you happen to have a savings account with a yield that high, your inflation-adjusted return is negative 1.6%. That's why, here at GRE, we typically invest in vehicles that target returns VASTLY exceeding both inflation and taxes. As much as that might hurt, you know who today's real estate market is actually really bad for? Even worse for the saver that isn't even treading water. It is downright AWFUL out there for those wannabe first-time homebuyers. They are looking at this triple-headed monster of higher prices, higher mortgage rates, and stringent lending requirements. And then if they overcome ALL that, they've got to compete for that tight supply. It's made affordability for people in THAT position really awful. In a lot of markets, a starter home is $400K. With your 20% down payment plus closing costs, that's $100,000 out of pocket, right upfront, as well as your ongoing monthly payment… all for an asset that doesn't generate income when it's your HOME. Well, that's an insurmountable hurdle for a lot of people. This low affordability moves people out of the homebuyer class and adds them to the ranks of the RENTER class. Well, there's our opportunity as landlords. You aren't preying on them. You're risking your capital to provide good housing for them. But curiously, the HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE is actually just a touch higher than usual right now, despite souring affordability. So, let's take a look at this. And then I'll break down what it means to you as well as where we're headed. Since 1965, the average homeownership since 65% and currently, it's 66%, running a little high. BTW, homeownership peaked at 69% in 2004—that's back when you could outright lie about your income, job, and assets, and still get a mortgage. Many people did just that. NINJA loans. When you hear the acronym, NINJA loans, what that stands for is no income, no job, or assets. Well, you either rent your home or you own your home. It's one or the other. So then, today's 66% homeownership rate means that everyone else, 34%, are renters. When the homeownership rate drops, then you've got more renters. The low point for homeownership was in 2016 at 63%. It's grown since then, and you might wonder… how in the heck is homeownership above average today in the face of this low affordability? How is it 66%. Well, there's a few reasons for that and it's not always intuitive. America's population keeps AGING. And that skews figures… because homeowners tend to BE older. Secondly, incumbents - those that already GOT their home have really low, affordable payments. They're not going to lose their home & become renters. 80% of borrowers have a mortgage rate under 5%. You're really happy to stay put when your mortgage rate begins with a "4" o…

    Full show notes at the publisher

    461: Skyrocketing Insurance Costs, The End of Free Money Aug 07, 2023
    Show notes

    Sharply higher insurance premiums are affecting property owners nationwide. It's especially bad in: CA, LA, FL, TX and CO. This is due to erratic weather (climate) and higher rebuilding costs. Phenomena like an increasing intensity and frequency of hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, and floods are sending some insurers out of business. State Farm and AllState completely stopped issuing new homeowner policies in California. Some areas are on the brink of becoming completely UNinsurable. In that case, the only sales that could occur with all cash buyers. Learn three techniques to keep your skyrocketing insurance costs lower. As you'll learn today, landlords have more options than homeowners for navigating spiking insurance rates. Then, listen to a CNBC clip along with me about how the end of ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) affects your life and investments. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: www.GetRichEducation.com/461 Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Find cash-flowing Jacksonville property at: www.JWBrealestate.com/GRE Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text 'FAMILY' to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review" Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text 'GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold Complete episode transcript: Welcome to GRE! I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. First, I'm going to help you make your real estate more profitable in the near term as I discuss how to deal with skyrocketing property insurance costs. Later, I'll inform your strategy about your long-term, overall personal finance as we talk about what the end of free money means in this new era of higher interest rates. Today, on Get Rich Education. ____________ Welcome to GRE! From Tirana, Albania to Albany, New York and across 188 nations worldwide, I'm Keith Weinhold and you're listening to Get Rich Education. This is how real wealth is built in the real world with real estate. We aren't day traders. We are DECADE traders. And we do that with the right mission. Let's invest directly in America - own real property in American neighborhoods, and provide housing that's clean, safe, affordable and functional. And when we all do that, we can abolish the term "slumlord". Conversely, what do some people think about first? Themselves. [RIC FLAIR CLIP] Ha ha ha! Over the top with some vintage Ric Flair. There's nothing wrong with living well. But that best comes as a byproduct of serving OTHERS first. Let's talk about the SKYROCKETING cost of property insurance. Why it's happening, what MY experience is, and what you can do to manage it. First of all, and I hope that none of my insurance agents are listening, but why would you ever work in the insurance industry? And I kid. But that's got to be one of the most boring industries to work in. What 15-year-old ever says that when they grow up, they want to be an insurance broker? Nobody. But, in any case, it is a STABLE industry because there will long be a need for insurance. But, I mean, even your customers - the policyholders like us - we don't really want insurance. Insurance ads all say the same thing: "Switch and save." No one has seen an advertisement from this industry that says, "Upgrade for better coverage." That's because so many people just want the minimum coverage and want to get on with their lives… until a calamity occurs. But now, the insurance industry has gotten SOMEWHAT more interesting lately, the effects of which center around erratic weather… maybe you like calling it climate change, maybe you don't. But suffice to say, if erratic weather persists, then it's no longer erratic, rather, it is, in fact, a pattern, and then, a change in a region's climate. The intensity & frequency of storms is increasing. I'm talking about weather phenomena like hurricanes, floods, wildfires, tornadoes, and even high snowfall. Inflation also means that there are rising COSTS to rebuild. And RE-insurance costs are higher. Yes, your insurance company gets insurance from insurers themselves, called re-insurance. Re-insurance companies insure insurers. Everyone knows State Farm's jingle. "Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there." No, State Farm is gone. State Farm is the largest home insurer in CA. So they're the largest home insurer in the most populous state. Well, you might have heard a few months ago that they're completely stopping issuance of new home insurance policies in all of CA. And AllState followed shortly afterward. Persistent wildfires are a culprit there. Insurance companies can't make any money so it's hard to blame them. Well, why don't they just, say, double their premiums? Some sure have. Others can't because of competition for lower rates from other companies. But a lot of SMALLER insurance companies - including many in Florida - have done just that. They've gone out of business… and when there are fewer companies in business - less competition - that's when rates can get jacked up high. Insurance rates are up the most in many of the states that have the greatest incidence of hurricanes, floods, and wildfires. What are the states where rates are rising most? CA, LA, and FL. And after that, TX and CO too, and some other states. TX is one state that's subject to both hurricanes and tornadoes - hurricanes in SE Texas - Galveston, Houston and Corpus Christi. And tornadoes in NE Texas, like Dallas-Fort Worth. So, when hazards happen, losses can occur. That's why your lienholder - your mortgage holder - forces you to have insurance. They require you to have it because they're not willing to take that risk. Louisiana's problems with insurers REALLY compounded a few years ago when Hurricanes Delta, Ida, and Laura hit the state. That created a true crisis in Louisiana's insurance market. A lot of insurers just left with $24B in insurance claims during that period. Others in Louisiana stopped issuing new policies and increased the premiums on the existing insured homeowners. Now, I'm going to center on the homeowner's insurance problem in Florida soon, because Florida is a popular investor state, I own a lot of rental properties in Florida and I'll tell you about my personal insurance experience there shortly. When it comes to wildfires - which are often spurred by hot, dry, and windy weather conditions, some areas are on the brink of becoming completely UNinsurable. California has a bunch of regions like that. And other places like Bend, Oregon and Boulder, CO are in danger of insurance denial because the homes are surrounded by forest. If that happens there, the only resale market for the properties would be to all-cash buyers, unless the state ever comes in to buy them out since people were ALLOWED to build there in the first place. Now, notice that I haven't mentioned earthquakes yet. Earthquakes aren't related to the surface weather like hurricanes and wildfires and these other things are. Earthquake insurance, which many people have in places like CA, WA, OR and AK is often a completely SEPARATE policy from your standard homeowner's policy and EQ insurance is prohibitively expensive. Besides that, their deductibles can be high, like 10 or 20%. If an earthquake completely destroys your $500K home and you have a 20% deductible… … then to even make a claim, you'd need to come out of pocket $100K first - plus you'd be paying high premiums all that time just to have that condition! Anchorage, AK had a big magnitude 7.1 earthquake back in 2018. I was in Anchorage when it happened and I told you about that here on the show back then. I was pretty shaken up. At the time, I owned dozens of apartment units in Anchorage. I don't anymore. I had, maybe $40,000 of out-of-pocket cosmetic damage that I had to pay from that one earthquake. Lienholders DO not make EQ coverage a necessity, and 25% of Anchorage homeowners had coverage before the quake. It went up to 35% afterward. Fortunately, the top cash flow REI areas don't tend to be in the west coast of the United States. So, how high have some of these insurance premiums gotten in states known for disasters? Well, the average is about $225 per month in LA. In TX, it's $250 per month on their average $300K home, and in Florida it's about $325 monthly on a $300K home. Of course, that's going to vary by what region of the state you're in and distance from the coast and such. One weather phenomena that I haven't seen any evidence of in contributing to higher insurance costs is heat itself. This summer, Phoenix hit a new record for consecutive days that exceeded 110 degrees Fahrenheit. That went on for weeks on end. But heat in itself, and its resultant air conditioner use and power load - is not something directly attributable to escalating insurance costs, unless power load problems start a fire. Now, you keep hearing about climate migrants moving to more northerly places with access to a lot of fresh water like Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin. But these stories seem to be largely anecdotal and of little impact. The faster-growing areas continue to be in the Mojave and Sonoran deserts - that's Las Vegas and Phoenix - places with lots of heat, rising heat, and dry conditions. And despite what you might think, they're not going to run out of water anytime soon. Those deserts actually have a lower incidence of natural disasters too, which is one reason why they've built new microchip plants in Phoenix. Climate migrants moving north might be a thing at some point - but it still is not. Well, speaking of hot in-migration states, Florida has had a LIGHT hurricane season so far. But that's not the kind of thing that we can count on for long. Rates have gone up more than 50% throughout the state of Florida, with ALL insurance carriers. Carriers are either pulling out of the state (because its not profitable for them), or they're increasing rates across the board, or they're not renewing policyholders. Now, I've had my rates hiked up on my Florida properties more than once. There, it's often because an insurance company goes out of business due to too many claims, and then I have to switch to another landlord's policy carrier that always has higher rates. So here's what happens. I get a notice in the US mail that my current insurer on a Florida rental SFH - call them Insurer A - is going out of business in 5 months and that I have 5 months to find a new insurer - call them Insurer B. So I take a photo of that notice and forward it over to my Florida insurance agent and ask them to give me quotes for my new prospective Insurer B. Now, say that if you don't do that. If you don't ask your insurance broker or agent to get you a new policy, if you don't act, here's what happens. Say that the 5-month deadline approaches and you still don't have new coverage lined up. Your mortgage holder, call them Wells Fargo or Chase, they'll send you a notice in the mail and remind you that it's required that you have insurance in place – because Wells Fargo or Chase doesn't want to be on the hook for the risk… and if you don't get a new insurer - Wells Fargo, say, will buy a policy FOR you & make you pay it. And the insurance that they buy for you will have lesser coverage and cost way more. It seems like, whoever the bank is, they always tell me that they're going to buy me an ultra-pricey policy with Lloyd's of London. So again, it doesn't entail too much work on your part. If your insurer is going out of business or just doesn't want to issue you a new policy, share that notice with your insurance person and ask them for new quotes. That's a quick, easy thing to do. And then, when you switch insurance companies, your PM must submit photos of your rental home to the new insurer within something like 15 days. Over the past few years, I think I've had Florida properties where the premiums have been hiked up steeply twice. I seem to remember a complete doubling a year or two ago. More recently, I had 30% rate increases on some of my Florida rental properties. So how much am I paying now? Well, on one Florida rental SFH that has a market value of about $300K, I'm paying $330 per month. Of course, for your long-term rental properties, your landlord insurance contract should provide what's called "loss of rents," coverage. That's something that OO homeowner's policies don't have. That means that if your property is damaged and your tenants are displaced, your insurer pays the fair market rent to you since the tenant won't. That's typically capped at 12 months. On your STRs - like AirBnBs and VRBOs, the coverage that you want is called "lost business income" with no time limit. And that might take an upgrade to a commercial insurance policy for STRs. Alright, so let's get to something actionable. We are real estate investors for the production of income. So amidst what are perhaps UNPRECEDENTED increases in insurance premiums these last few years, how do you navigate this, and what do you do to stay profitable? Well, whether you're an OO or a rental property owner, you can do things like make sure that your coverage is appropriate. You can raise your deductible amount to reduce your annual premium, of course. The more financially strong that you are, the higher you can make your deductible because the less a claim is going to impact you. But as a rental property owner, you have a FEW LEVERS that you can pull that OOs cannot. The big one - is that this is your cue to RAISE THE RENT. Yes, higher insurance premiums point to raising the rent. Really, this is like a game of hot potato… and it is your job to pass along the potato. That's all that you're doing here. See, the reinsurer raised rates on your property insurer. Your property insurer is raising the rate premium on you, the property owner. Now it's your job to pass along the hot potato to the tenant in the form of a rent increase. Then your tenant has to pass along the hot potato by asking their employer for a raise or finding new employment. And it keeps going, now your tenant's employer needs to pass along the higher labor cost in the form of raising consumer prices on the goods or services that they produce… and it continues throughout the economy. That's how inflation works. It's your job to pass along the hot potato. What if the tenant leaves? Well, there's always that possibility. But if they go to rent or buy a "like" property, it's still going to have the same higher insurance cost that they'd have to pay. For help with that, and this is the second time that I referred back to this recently, in Episode 449, just twelve weeks ago, I provided you with 12 ways to raise the rent. Again, that's Episode 449. You always want to provide a REASON to the tenant about why their rent is increasing, say 5% in this case for example. Nothing beats the truth. Your insurance costs are higher. That's the reason. Now, you might be wondering, if, say, insurance costs just rose 30%, like they did on one of my own properties recently, then how is a 5% rent increase going to offset that? That'…

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    460: Real Estate Cash Flow vs. Stock Cash Flow Jul 31, 2023
    Show notes

    In this podcast episode, Keith Weinhold and Kirk Chisholm discuss the differences between real estate and stock investing. Kirk Chisholm is the Principal of Innovative Advisory Group. He provides his perspective as a wealth manager, emphasizing the control and lower risk offered by alternative assets like real estate. Learn the difference between risk and volatility. We discuss risk-adjusted returns, liquidity, and the importance of understanding and managing risk. The conversation also covers cash flow, dividends, big tech stocks, and private mortgages. Interest rates and inflation—we discuss their future. Kirk believes rates will stay at this higher rate for a long time. Timestamps: The Paradigm Shift in Interest Rates and Inflation [00:00:01] Discussion on the new paradigm of interest rates and inflation and how it affects real estate and stock investors. The Impact of Front Porches on Society [00:01:35] Exploration of the impact of the disappearance of front porches on neighborhoods and communities. The Definition and Management of Risk in Investments [00:05:50] Explanation of how risk is defined and managed in different types of investments, including stocks, real estate, and alternative assets. The difference between volatility and risk [00:10:21] Explanation of the temporary price movements (volatility) and permanent impairment of capital (risk) in different investment assets. The illiquidity of real estate and non-traded REITs [00:13:11] Discussion on the illiquidity of real estate compared to publicly traded markets and the example of non-traded REITs during the 2008 financial crisis. Importance of cash flow and dividends in stock investments [00:15:26] Exploration of the two camps in stock investing: cash flow-driven investors and appreciation-driven investors, and the significance of dividends and cash flow in stock investments. Dividend Stocks and Value Stocks [00:20:17] Explanation of the difference between growth stocks and value stocks, with a focus on dividend-paying stocks. Private Mortgages and Cash Flow [00:21:12] Discussion on the benefits of investing in private mortgages and how it provides a passive income stream. Default Rates on Hard Money Loans [00:25:48] Exploration of the default rates on hard money loans and the industry's approach to mitigating risks for both borrowers and lenders. The new paradigm of interest rates and inflation [00:31:32] Kirk Chisholm discusses the shift in the economic paradigm from low interest rates and inflation to higher rates and a shrinking economy. The impact of higher rates on mortgages and real estate [00:35:39] Kirk explains how higher interest rates affect mortgage payments and housing affordability, leading to a decline in house prices. The consequences of higher rates on corporate America [00:37:48] Kirk discusses how higher rates can impact corporations, particularly those with short-term debt, potentially leading to bankruptcies and market clean-up. Higher rates and recession correlation [00:39:55] Discussion on the correlation between recessions and lowering of interest rates, and why it may not happen in the future due to high inflation. Fed's focus on stable prices [00:42:48] The Federal Reserve's prioritization of stable prices over high employment, within their dual mandate. Interest rates and the economy [00:44:10] The potential impact of higher interest rates on the economy, with a discussion on when the next recession may occur. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: www.GetRichEducation.com/460 Innovative Advisory Group: www.InnovativeWealth.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Find cash-flowing Jacksonville property at: www.JWBrealestate.com/GRE Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text 'FAMILY' to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review" Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text 'GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold Complete episode transcript: Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to. I'm your host, Keith White. As a real estate investor, you are highly cognizant of your cash flows to stock investors. Even think about that and how we've now entered a completely new paradigm of interest rates and inflation and how to respond today on Get Rich Education with real estate capital Jacksonville. Real estate has outperformed the stock market by 44% over the last 20 years. It's proven to be a more stable asset, especially during recessions. Their vertically integrated strategy has led to 79% more home price appreciation compared to the average Jacksonville investor since 2013. GPB is ready to help your money make money and to make it easy for everyday investors. Get started at GWB Real estate. Agree that's GWB Real estate. Agree. Speaker 2 (00:00:59) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get rich education. Keith Weinhold (00:01:22) - What category? From Bogota, Colombia, to Wichita, Kansas, and across 188 nations worldwide. You are back in that abundantly minded place where financially free beats debt free. Keith Weinhold (00:01:35) - And by now you might have already won the inflation Triple Crown. I'm your host, Keith Wild. Hey, Noah, is this a real estate problem? Philip Gulley, the author of Porch Talk. He said, I believe all that is wrong with the world can be attributed to the shortage of front porches and the talks we had on them. Somewhere around 1950, builders left off the front porch to save money, and we've had nothing but problems ever since. That's just the sort of thing that I think about now as you and I are enjoying the dog days of summer, as I trust that you are, you know, neighborhoods, property, it all used to be more wide open. The Pennsylvania house that I grew up in and that my parents still live in, it has a real front porch. And no one I mean, nobody has fences around their yard either. It is a real lemonade sipping chat with the neighbors vibe there that, well, seems to be more and more of a remnant of yesteryear. Keith Weinhold (00:02:44) - I mean, gosh, from what I can see, there are more and more gated communities. Uh, people tend to get more concerned about security and that often means that they trade away freedom. Hey, well, our guest on the show today, he hits differently. And you're going to feel that because he's the principal of a firm that helps investors with stocks, bonds and mutual funds, as well as real estate investing. And it's not just REITs, real estate investment trusts, but more than that. And, you know, whenever he and I talk, we tend to get each other thinking in different ways, in shape, each other's opinions somewhat, as you'll probably see again today. He and I disagree on some things and we agree on others. I'm going to ask him about whether or not stock investors even care about cash flow. We'll be sure to get his insights on the direction of interest rates and inflation and more. Well, I'd like to welcome in our guest today he runs innovative wealth.com he's the principle and a wealth manager there at innovative advisory group. Keith Weinhold (00:03:54) - They're based in Massachusetts but they advise well beyond any state borders. Hey it's been a few years. It's great to have you back. Kirk Chisholm Thanks for inviting me back. Keith. I was a little worried there didn't appear well in your show, but thanks for having me back. Yeah, well, it's been absolutely too long, and I really appreciate your perspective because they're with what you do. You're principal of a company that helps people invest in a big, wide palette of things, from stocks to private mortgages and some things with real estate and elsewhere. So you have this really broad view. So tell us what percentage of your business is is stocks, bonds and their derivative products like ETFs and mutual funds versus everything else? It's interesting because my industry is primarily focused on stocks, bonds and mutual funds. It always has been, probably always will be, in large part because they're easy to sell, They're publicly available information and everyone is can simply just click a button and get it done. So my industry tends to work towards lazy solutions or simple solutions. Keith Weinhold (00:05:00) - Nothing wrong with that. You just have to know with what you're getting. It's funny, when we started our firm in 2008, we were doing a lot of private mortgages and we talked to the regulators at the time and they said, Oh, well, what percentage of your accounts in alternatives? Because we told them we did alternatives like what percentage of your accounts? And we said, Yeah, somewhere like 40 to 50%. You know, it probably ranges between 40 and 60. You could hear a pin drop in that room. I did pick the lady's mouth off the floor like she couldn't believe that. How quote unquote, risky that is. And she said the first question, she's like, are you serious? Isn't that really risky? And I started laughing and I said, risky? You mean like Worldcom, Enron, AIG, Tyco, You know, like Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns? They just kept going on and on. She's like, all right, I get the point. And we had to define the concept of risk. Keith Weinhold (00:05:50) - This is the part that your audience will appreciate, right? If you're investing in a company, it's been screened by the SEC. It's passed certain muster. It's SEC doesn't endorse it, but it's passed certain muster. You say, all right, I feel comfortable that this company's met the minimum criteria. That's not always the case. Right. Companies go bankrupt all the time. And we actually have a spike in bankruptcies most recently because of the economy. But if you look at piece of real estate, I can go walk up and touch it. I can go to the Registry of Deeds and see that I own it. I can talk to the maintenance guy or the property manager and see what's going on and have influence on it. I would say if you know what you're doing, there's a lot less risk. And I would say if you own a piece of gold, what's your risk? I could lose it. Somebody could steal it. The government confiscates it. That's pretty much it, right? It's not going to zero. Keith Weinhold (00:06:37) - It's not going to the moon. It's just a rock. The way you define risk is really something that a lot of people don't spend time with is managing that risk. So a lot of what we've done is we've looked at it from a different perspective. What is the best investment given the criteria that we have, the markets we're in and the risk available? You know, what is going to do the best considering the risk as an example, Bitcoin or Ethereum or any sort of cryptocurrency, the risk is it could go to zero, right? It's not going to go below zero risk as you lose all your money or you might make 10 or 20 times your money, right? That is also possible. Both scenarios are probably on the extreme ends of probable, but either way, like you have to account for both scenarios and say is it worth it going to zero for me to make X amount of return? If the answer is yes, then it makes sense. If the answer is no, then don't invest in it or invest in a lot less of it. Keith Weinhold (00:07:31) - So that's kind of how we look at risk and that's why we look across the board for alternative assets. We're very agnostic about the assets because it really just comes down to, is it a good investment or not? That's really the criteria we look at. Risk is what goes beyond the edge of your understanding. Think that's what applies to that conversation that you had that you brought up there earlier. Right. It's largely about one's risk adjusted return. You talk about with real estate how you have more control over an investment because you can get in there and understand it and change the operations of it in order to drive a return. And then stocks have this very efficient market where it's quick and easy to get in and out and things are more liquid. This very efficient market with real estate, there really isn't any app you can go on and be like, Oh, okay, well my duplex was up 3/10 of 1% this past week. That doesn't happen. That's part of the inherent inefficiencies with direct ownership of real estate, of course. Keith Weinhold (00:08:32) - I would argue the point of efficient markets, the stock market is is not efficient, despite what the academics will tell you. It is more liquid. I would argue that real estate is illiquid, which is good and bad, right? If you need to sell, it's bad. If you're looking to buy and you don't need to buy, it could be really good. Stock market is very different in that it's claimed to be efficiently priced with all the known information at the given time. And the price is the price. And what I would argue is that's an interesting philosophical standpoint, but it's inaccurate, right? Because if all the information was known, then we wouldn't have volatility. But we do have volatility and the stock market is a forward pricing discount mechanism, right? So you look out six months and say, what's the market going to do? That's where the stock prices are six months from now, not today, six months from now. So whatever the market thinks is happening, they think it's going to happen then. Keith Weinhold (00:09:26) - So if you look at interest rates, which I'm sure we'll get to, they're looking out six months and for the last two years I've noticed on the expectation of the yield curve, it's that, oh, rates are going to drop in the next 3 to 6 months and in 3 to 6 months it's going to drop in 3 to 6 months. Over and over, it keeps pricing out well, another 3 or 6 months. And I think that the market doesn't really look beyond that because it's really hard to predict. First of all, you can't predict the future anyway, but if you're probabilistically, going to try beyond six months is really hard because there's so many things that got to happen that changed the dynamics significantly. Talk about efficiency with stocks. I'm talking about how stocks are efficient and easy to liquidate. It's pretty easy to sell. And then over here in real estate investing, there is no panic selling because it takes quite a while to buy into sell. Therefore, that's some of the inefficiency of real estate compared to stocks. Keith Weinhold (00:10:21) - We look at that through a liquidity perspective, right? So liquidity can be a good thing or a bad thing because when there's panic, selling, liquidity can lead to greater volatility like we see in stock. Yeah. And I want to point out two things here. So first is there's a difference between volatility and risk. And I think it's really important for people to understand the difference. So volatility is temporary price movements. It's how much the price fluctuates in any given day. Real estate investors don't see this right, But stock investors, Microsoft is up 5% yesterday. Nvidia's up like whatever, 70% of the day or whatever it was, 30 some odd percent in a day. That's volatility, right? You look at stock prices drop 30 plus percent in a sh…

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    459: Your Questions Answered: Raw Land, Debt Mindset, Controlling Repair Expenses Jul 24, 2023
    Show notes

    Watch the video of today's podcast intro here. Are starter homes a thing of the past? Did the Fed just win? I provide commentary and perspective on both. Hear clips from: Donald Trump, Jamie Dimon, and Jerome Powell. Then, I answer four listener questions: Should I make my first real estate investment a new development from raw land? Does it make sense to sell some rental properties, pay off others, and make my life easier? My returns are down because my property repair bills are higher than expected. What should I do? Since the government has high debt, won't they keep printing dollars? If you have a listener question, ask it here: GetRichEducation.com/Contact Timestamps: The state of the real estate economy [00:00:01] Home prices and housing supply [00:01:33] Analysis of home prices reaching new highs, the decrease in new listings, and the impact on housing supply. Mortgage rates and the future of interest rates [00:03:54] Insights on the direction of mortgage rates, the unlikelihood of rates returning to the 3% range, and the opinions of Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the NAR. The Fed's Soft Landing [00:10:31] Discussion on the Federal Reserve's efforts to control inflation and maintain economic stability. Building Development as a First Investment [00:12:49] Advice on whether it is a good idea for beginners to invest in land development and the challenges involved. Acquiring More Property or Paying Down Debt [00:19:02] Advice on whether to continue acquiring properties or pay off existing debt and downsize for a more enjoyable life. The philosophy of debt [00:21:11] Debt can be beneficial and indicate wealth, as seen in examples of successful individuals with high levels of debt. Managing repair costs for rental properties [00:24:18] Charging tenants for the first portion of repair bills can incentivize them to make minor repairs themselves and reduce long-term repair costs. Inflation and government debt [00:30:12] Inflation can debase government debt, reducing its value, similar to how it affects personal debt. The US government's ability to print money allows for easier repayment of debt. The housing supply and marketplace [00:31:30] Discussion on the historically low US housing supply and the importance of staying up to date with the inventory and other elements in the real estate market. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: www.GetRichEducation.com/459 Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Find cash-flowing Jacksonville property at: www.JWBrealestate.com/GRE Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text 'FAMILY' to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review" Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text 'GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold Complete episode transcript: Speaker 1 (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. First, I'll discuss the surprising state of the real estate economy. Then I answer your listener question Should I develop and build property myself? How do I keep my rental properties repair bill down? And two questions about real estate debt all today on Get Rich Education with real estate capital Jacksonville. Real estate has outperformed the stock market by 44% over the last 20 years. It's proven to be a more stable asset, especially during recessions. Their vertically integrated strategy has led to 79% more home price appreciation compared to the average Jacksonville investor since 2013. JTB is ready to help your money make money and to make it easy for everyday investors. Get started at JWB Real Estate. Speaker 2 (00:01:01) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education. Speaker 1 (00:01:24) - Welcome to the area from Warsaw, Poland, to Warsaw, Indiana, and across 188 nations worldwide. And Keith Weinhold in your listening to Get Rich Education. Speaker 1 (00:01:33) - Earlier this month, CNBC reported that home prices have hit new highs again, another up just slightly year over year, though the popular sentiment is that by now people have gotten used to paying 7% or even more than 7% mortgage rates and higher rates. That puts the squeeze on housing supply. I mean, gosh, within this era of already paltry supply, I mean, we're talking about direly few homes in some markets here. Nationally, new listings are down 25% from a year ago. All right. Now, that's all national stuff. But look now, just over half of the nation's 50 largest housing markets and they're mostly in the Midwest and Northeast. They have either returned to their prior price peaks or they have set new all time highs. Annual home prices are still weaker out west, but even some of the Western markets has slumped. They're now seeing month over month gains. Yes, we're talking about gains now even in San Jose, San Diego, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle. Now, look, our starter homes, a thing of the past. Speaker 1 (00:02:47) - Some now think so with these higher prices. Just listen to this from an NAR survey, 40% of millennials who bought homes last year, they plan to stay in them 16 years or more. And for Gen Z, that number jumps up to 48%. Now, who knows if they'll really stay in those homes at that long. But see, what's going on here is just affirmation that so many buyers don't plan to trade in their starter home for a move up home. They got their starter homes when rates were low, though starter homes are not coming onto the market, potential sellers have ghosted the market, making for fewer listings and those fewer listings. That's what's fueling the price growth. So yes, starter homes could largely be a thing of the past, but of course not completely. Now, just two weeks ago here on the show, Jim Rogers told us why long term, he thinks interest rates will go much higher and opinions can be all over the place. So I don't want to get too bogged down in that. Speaker 1 (00:03:54) - But shorter term, one prominent commentator, he is now emphatic that mortgage rates have hit their top, like, for example, hit their top for perhaps this year and next year. Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the NAR on the direction of mortgage rates. He says, quote, This is the top. It will begin to move down. But you can also says if you're a US home buyer waiting for a return to super low mortgage rates, don't hold your breath. The short lived era of 3% interest rates for 30 year fixed mortgages, that is over, and they are unlikely to return anytime soon, perhaps for decades. He goes on to say that one can never truly predict the future but don't see mortgage rates returning back to the 3% range in the remainder of my lifetime. That is all of what Yun said. Okay. The remainder of Lawrence Hoon's lifetime, he looks pretty healthy and that might be 40 years, 40 plus years. Did we see rates that low again, according to him? Now, did you see this? We posted this in our Instagram stories as our curious article of the week last week. Speaker 1 (00:05:07) - The Washington Post get a hold of this title. They published an article and it was titled The Housing Market Recession is Already Ending. My preeminent thought is the housing market recession is already ending. That's a curious headline. What housing market recession? I don't get it. And the subtitle doesn't help. It's subtitled Last year's downturn in the housing market didn't last even with higher interest rates. Now prices are stabilizing. Is supply chains have eased up. All right. Well, even with actually reading the complete article, I don't know what they mean by a housing market recession last year. I guess that national home prices stopped appreciating last year and they just stabilized. But I don't know how the heck you get a recession out of that. Maybe with low housing supply, there were fewer transactions and that was being considered a recession. Now, look, I'm going to posit something really unpopular here in today's climate, but I think that this is a question that you really need to ask yourself today, and that is, did Jerome Powell just win? I told you it was unpopular. Speaker 1 (00:06:20) - He's not a very well liked. Person in a lot of circles. But with CPI inflation at 9% last year and 3% now. Yet throughout this spin, we had a few banks that broke but no recession. Is it possible that Jerome Powell has engineered a soft landing? I've got more on that in a moment. But the actual person of one, Donald, John Trump, made some quick remarks about the economy this month. Let's listen in. Speaker 3 (00:06:52) - We've never had an economy like we had just three years ago. It was unbelievable. And frankly, this economy is not doing well. But the reason it's doing okay is it's running on the fumes of what we built. But those fumes are running out and they're running out fast. And it's not going to be a pretty picture. Speaker 1 (00:07:11) - Yeah, I don't know about that. When we look at the broader US economy, let's get something more substantive. And speaking of people that aren't well liked, Jamie Dimon had some great perspective. I think you know that he's the billionaire business exec and the banker that's led JPMorgan Chase since 2005. Speaker 1 (00:07:30) - To put it another way. This man runs the largest bank in America. Speaker 4 (00:07:36) - It's the other way around. America has the best hand ever dealt of any country on this planet today ever. Okay. And Americans don't fully appreciate what I'm about to say. We have peaceful, wonderful neighbors in Canada and Mexico. We've got the biggest military barriers ever built called the Atlantic and the Pacific. We have all the food, water and energy we will ever need. Okay. We have the best military on the planet, and we will for as long as we have the best economy. And if you're a liberal, listen closely to me in that one, okay? Because the Chinese would love to have our economy. We have the best universities on the planet. There are great ones elsewhere. But these are the best. We still educate most most of the kids who start businesses around the world. We have a rule of law which is exceptional. If you don't believe me and we talk about Britain, Brazil, Russia, India, Venezuela, Argentina, China, India, believe me, it's not quite there. Speaker 4 (00:08:29) - We have a magnificent work ethic. We have innovation from the core of our bones. You can ask anyone in this room what you can do to be more productive. Ask your assistants, factory floors, redo it. It's not just the Steve Jobs. It's this broad death with the wires and deepest financial markets the world's ever seen. Okay. And if you. I just made a list of these things and maybe I miss something. It's extraordinary. It's extraordinary. And we have it today. Yes, we have problems. But, you know, when I hear people down, if you travel around the world, I mean, get an airplane, travel around the world and go to all these other countries and tell me what you think. Speaker 1 (00:09:02) - Yeah, Jamie Dimon really bringing up a lot of those geographic advantages like Peterson and I discuss in depth here Diamond's remarks. They're not new remarks. Those weren't recent ones. And by the way, I don't really care for him calling out liberals, just like labeling people conservatives. Speaker 1 (00:09:20) - That's counterproductive. I like the quality of ideas as soon as we start labeling things left or right, that quickly becomes more divisive than it does unifying. Don't do left right politics. I do. Up, down, up is integrity. The quality of your ideas concepts means for getting things done and track record. That's what matters. But anyway, coming off Jamie Dimon waxing poetic with American optimism and exceptionalism. Yeah, it is time to ask if the Fed is winning. And first, let's understand something fundamental The fact that high inflation occurred for two years that is irreparable. Let's not overlook that. I mean, you're Trader Joe's grocery store prices. They're not coming back down even if the rate of inflation has slowed. I mean, that is a big fat L, That is a loss. It came from printing all those dollars to paper over the pandemic, which created the high inflation with everything from the paycheck protection program to Stemi checks to the Cares Act. And yes, the executive branch created some of that too. Speaker 1 (00:10:31) - But my point is, make the irresponsible people that don't have any savings feel some pain once in a while. If you just make money fall from the sky every time there's a crisis, then people are going to learn to not have any reserves or any cash flowing investments during the next crisis. Yes, supply chain constraints are part of the problem too. But since you tried to paper over the pain, see then creating that inflation that results, that makes everyone feel the pain that's middle class or below. All right. But after that understanding, is Jerome Powell now winning by landing the inflation softly without crashing the economy and keeping GDP rising a little in keeping unemployment low in see even the producers price index that's forward looking that measures this change. In selling prices of goods and services producers. That's falling out, right? That leading indicator for consumer price inflation. And that's why inflation expectations are finally dropping. And that doesn't mean that I like the Fed or the system at all. But by now you've at least got to begin to wonder if the Fed can get their soft landing. Speaker 1 (00:11:47) - They've dropped down from 30,000 foot cruising altitude. There's no turbulence, and they're below, call it, 10,000ft. Now, for the first time in two years, wages are finally rising faster than prices. Speaker 4 (00:12:01) - We at the Fed remain squarely focused on. Speaker 1 (00:12:04) - Our dual mandate. Speaker 4 (00:12:05) - To promote. Speaker 1 (00:12:05) - Maximum employment and stable. Speaker 4 (00:12:06) - Prices for the American people. Speaker 1 (00:12:08) - Yes, sir. That is your job after all. Well, I want to turn to your listener questions here for the remainder of the show. And if you've got a question for me, you can always reach out at Get Rich education, slash contact. The first question comes from Tina in Monroe, Louisiana. She says, Keith, I love your show. Just started listening last month. Tina asks Keith, I have the idea of buying land and I want to know if this is a good idea to build new rentals on. Like for Plex's, I've already formed an LLC and hope to open a business line of credit, but this would be my first ever real estate investment. Speaker 1 (00:12:49) - Okay, Tina, thanks for finding the show here. Welcome in. I expect that you'll have years of profitable listening ahead to start a new development from digging raw dirt all the way through to procuring your certificates of occupancy and have that be your very first investment for almost anyone. I have got to say no because there is just so much to development. Development is going to rely on your experience and your ability to build a team. You're going to need general contractors and subcontractors and…

    Full show notes at the publisher

    458: How Scott Saunders Built a 64-Unit Portfolio of Single-Family Rentals Jul 17, 2023
    Show notes

    Get our newsletter free here or text "GRE" to 66866. In this podcast episode, host Keith Weinhold introduces Scott Saunders, a successful real estate investor who shares his insights and experiences in building a portfolio of 64 single-family rental properties. They discuss the advantages of investing in cash-flowing rental properties, the importance of focusing on cash flow in the early stages, and the benefits of single-family rentals compared to multifamily properties. Scott also discusses his analysis of different markets for real estate investment and his approach to financing and leveraging his investments. They emphasize the importance of seeking professional advice and using resources like GREmarketplace.com for wealth building. Timestamps: The advantages of single family rentals [00:06:22] Scott discusses the advantages of investing in single family rentals, including better cap rates, long-term fixed-rate financing, and the inherent demand for single family homes. Greater liquidity with single family rentals [00:08:31] Scott and Keith talk about the liquidity component of single family rentals, highlighting that even in a recession, people will still need a place to live and therefore be buyers of single family homes. Longer tenancy duration in single family rentals [00:09:34] The discussion focuses on how tenants tend to stay longer in single family homes and duplexes compared to larger apartment buildings, often due to factors such as larger square footage and the desire to be in a specific school district. The importance of cash flow at the beginning [00:11:34] Starting with cash flow-centric properties and gradually moving towards appreciation as the portfolio grows. Scaling up the portfolio with short-term targets [00:14:55] Setting 90-day targets to buy a specific number of properties, leading to significant progress in a year. Factors in selecting the next market to buy in [00:18:24] Considerations include having a communicative property manager and existing opportunities in a market rather than solely focusing on a good deal. The importance of relationships in real estate investing [00:19:18] Scott discusses the significance of having a good relationship with property managers and asset providers in different markets. Factors to consider when choosing a real estate market [00:20:18] Scott talks about the importance of factors such as job growth, a diversified economy, and an influx of people when selecting a market to invest in. Using inflation as a tailwind in real estate investing [00:23:54] Scott explains how he leverages inflation to his advantage by locking in assets today and using inflation to propel his investing forward. The importance of 30-year fixed rate financing [00:28:12] Scott discusses the benefits of locking in a 30-year fixed rate for financing and shares his experience during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using paid-off assets as collateral for future financing [00:29:11] Scott explains his strategy of paying off some properties to use them as collateral for obtaining loans for future investments. Managing properties and involving family in real estate business [00:31:19] Scott talks about using Excel to track his rental income and involving his daughter in managing the financials of his real estate business. The goal of acquiring lifestyle assets [00:36:34] Scott Saunders discusses his long-term goal of purchasing properties in Tuscany, Italy, Steamboat Springs, Colorado, and other locations for both enjoyment and return on investment. The importance of return on attention [00:38:01] Scott explains the concept of return on attention, which focuses on having the freedom to enjoy life without being constantly distracted by financial concerns. The impact of purchasing single-family rentals [00:40:07] Scott emphasizes the benefits of purchasing 5 to 10 single-family rental properties, which can provide economic freedom and significantly improve one's financial situation. The disclaimer [00:46:07] The speaker provides a disclaimer stating that the show does not provide specific advice and encourages listeners to seek professional advice. Introduction [00:46:35] The speaker introduces the show and mentions the website getricheducation.com as the home for wealth building. Resources mentioned: Show Notes: www.GetRichEducation.com/458 Scott Saunders' resources: ScottRSaunders.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Find cash-flowing Jacksonville property at: www.JWBrealestate.com/GRE Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text 'FAMILY' to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search "how to leave an Apple Podcasts review" Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text 'GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold Complete episode transcript: Speaker 1 (00:00:00) - Welcome to. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. A follower has built a multi-state portfolio of 64 single family rental properties. He'll tell us how he's doing it, how he finances them all, his management technique and his guiding success principles today on Get Rich education. With real estate capital Jacksonville. Real estate has outperformed the stock market by 44% over the last 20 years. It's proven to be a more stable asset, especially during recessions. Their vertically integrated strategy has led to 79% more home price appreciation compared to the average Jacksonville investor since 2013. GWB is ready to help your money make money and to make it easy for everyday investors. Get started at GWB Real estate agree that's GWB real estate.com slash. Speaker 2 (00:01:00) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get rich education. Speaker 1 (00:01:23) - Hey, welcome to GRE. From the tropical currents in the Gulf of Mexico to the icy waters of Hudson Bay across the Americas in 188 world nations, this is get rich education where we just reach the 5 million listener download. Speaker 1 (00:01:37) - Mark, I am grateful to you for that. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Hey, a little context before we chat with our listener guests about the architecture of how he's building this robust 64 single family homes portfolio in growing across nine US states Once in a while. I like to drop things back for just a minute in case perhaps you're new here and you wonder how do people buy so many rental homes like adding ten every year? How am I supposed to do that? Well, of course, your speed of growth is going to be predicated on your income and some other things. But the best long term single-family rental homes, they're not 500 homes. They tend to be more like 200,000 homes in areas that are not upscale but yet safe, where you use a 20 to 25% down payment. And if you're new here and you have an aversion to debt, you know, I think that the simplest, most reassuring thing that I can tell a newcomer about real estate debt in just one sentence is that in a cash flowing rental, the tenant pays all of the debt for you, the principal, the interest, no matter what the interest rate is, all the operating expenses. Speaker 1 (00:02:51) - And then a little on top of that called cash flow. Now, really, when you add the first few income properties to your life and you think about protecting your time, think about how that is a surrogate, a substitute to adding a part time job that can be a rather circuitous way of going about life, because what you really want is the income, not the job or not the lost time. So therefore add properties, not jobs. Most people think of financial improvement is cutting expenses. It is not. It is adding income. Then those the triadic income, many times they look to add a part time job. But I brazenly posit that income producing property is the way. And what do they call Ryan Seacrest the hardest working guy in show business? I guess if you wanted to, you could have as many part time jobs as Ryan Seacrest. Prepare yourself for drama on this stage. Speaker 2 (00:03:54) - This is American Idol. Speaker 1 (00:04:00) - Yeah, Ryan Seacrest. He will also become the Wheel of Fortune host starting next year along with the daytime talk show and being a producer and whatever else he does. Speaker 1 (00:04:10) - I'm not really up on the latest. But yes, you want to have fewer jobs than Ryan Seacrest now speaking to your ROI, your return on time invested. You could get 64 single family rental homes like our guest today, and yet do it the wrong way. The wrong way might be say you live in a certain metro area and you buy all the properties just in your home metro so that the properties are spread, say one hour apart. That way you rationalize that you could self-manage, well, gosh, you'd be running all over the place. You'd have scores of tenants that could tax you. You'd almost be living at Home Depot, and after all that, you would still not be diversified because you'd only be in one metro market. Plus, how would you really ever get away on, say, a vacation? So that's probably not what you'd want either. Let's talk to our listener guest Scott, today and learn about how he does it. Here with me today is a great listener. Don't quit your day dream letter reader to discuss growing his Single-family rental portfolio. Speaker 1 (00:05:22) - He's based in Colorado and he specializes in real estate in tax law. In fact, he often teaches real estate law to attorneys. He's a single family real estate investor that owns 64 single family rentals and four duplexes. So therefore, he owns 72 doors, 64 of which are single family rentals. And he owns those properties across nine different states Tennessee, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Ohio, New Mexico, Colorado, Kansas and Arkansas. Higher mortgage rates aren't slowing him down as he's added six of those single family rentals this year. He's also a member of a Washington, D.C. based public policy organization that represents real estate interests. So he's really involved. He advocates for investor friendly tax policies with Congress. He's got a lot going on in his life. Hey, it's great to welcome on to Scott Saunders. Hey, Keith, Great to be with you. I'm a longtime follower and you have so many great nuggets of wisdom that you share, and it's just great. To visit with you for a few minutes. Speaker 1 (00:06:22) - So thanks a lot. I appreciate that so much, Scott. Now, in the real estate world, there are pros and cons between single family rentals and larger apartments. Apartments have a certain economies of scale advantage, but single family rentals have advantages that some people overlook. So talk to us about why you like single family rentals so much. Happy to do that. I think single family rentals are, first of all, a great entryway to get into investment real estate. But some people kind of springboard. They get into single family and then they want to go into duplexes, four Plex apartments, Single family is an asset class. You know, if you just look at it, it has so many advantages. The cap rate on a single family is typically better than a lot of commercial buildings right now. You can lock in long term fixed rate financing. So even if the rate's a tad higher, you go into an apartment building or commercial, you've got to refinance. And as we all know right now in the marketplace, there are some commercial properties that are facing some significant distress because they're having to refinance at higher rates. Speaker 1 (00:07:29) - Single family, you lock it in for 30 years and fix that. You've got buyer. Speaker 3 (00:07:34) - Pool. I can sell a single family to an investor or a homeowner. So there just are a lot of advantages and maybe even just at the most basic level, we all need to live somewhere, right? And so a choice of an apartment or a single family. So many people like the freedom, the room, the convenience, the yard, the garage that comes with a single family. So I just think there's a lot of inherent demand where people want to be in that type of property, either as a renter or a homeowner. So I'm a big fan of buying a single family home, buy another one, you know, and just continue scaling in that niche. I call it Get Rich in a niche, right? And that's the single family rental niche. Speaker 1 (00:08:16) - Sure. I had some apartment buildings that I sold recently that had balloon loans that were about to expire. And you mentioned the liquidity component where you have greater liquidity with single family rentals regardless of when it is in the cycle. Speaker 1 (00:08:31) - Even if it were a recession, borderline depression, people will be a buyer because they need a place to live. But a person doesn't always need to invest in an apartment building regardless of where we're at in the economic cycle. Speaker 3 (00:08:45) - Absolutely. Well, smart timing on your part to kind of see where those loans are going. And I think that there's a good time to maybe redeploy that capital somewhere else. So I like single family, and I think you can really grow and scale a portfolio. I mean, think of it this way, Keith. What if I needed to raise some cash? What if I had a medical need? I could unload a single family home or two right away. Now, I know from listening to your teaching, you'd say, don't sell it, refinance it. Right, harvest that equity. And that would be my first bet. But if I needed to generate cash, it's not that hard to unload some smaller single family rentals. And within a matter of a few months I could liquidate that and get the cash. Speaker 3 (00:09:26) - Some apartment buildings, you know, in some markets it could take a long time to find the right buyer in some places. Speaker 1 (00:09:34) - Now, during that whole time on a single family rental, you mentioned the cap rates. Oftentimes single family rentals are more profitable than what an investor projects. And one reason is that greater tenancy duration tenants tend to stay in single family homes and duplexes longer than they do a larger apartment building. Oftentimes it's because it feels like their own single family homes just tend to have more square footage, which lends to having larger families. We have a larger family. It just tends toward people wanting to stay longer and not uproot, and they get invested in things like buying to be in a certain school district, for example, where more single family homes tend to be than apartment buildings. Speaker 3 (00:10:18) - Absolutely. You know, you bring that up. My very first investment years ago was a fourplex, kind of a C class neighborhood. And when I bought it, I naively write. I look back at it now, I thought, well, if this is fully occupied, look at what the money will make. Speaker 3 (00:10:33) - The reality was there was a lot of turnover at that particular area. People came and went. It wasn't the top of the line. It wasn't a top tier neighborhood. And so I found that I was always chasing people and it was never in my case, fully occupied. And that tenant turn, that's expensive, as you well know. When you turn tenants, you have lost rent. You got to fix it up. So a single family home. I've had properties that my longest one I had attended stay in one for 15 years. I don't think you're going to find that in a multifamily property. Speaker 1 (00:11:06) - Yeah, that really is rather unlikely. I know in that first fourplex you bought, you tende…

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