Future of Life Institute Podcast

Latest Episodes:

Roman Yampolskiy on Shoggoth, Scaling Laws, and Evidence for AI being Uncontrollable Feb 02, 2024

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Roman Yampolskiy joins the podcast again to discuss whether AI is like a Shoggoth, whether scaling laws will hold for more agent-like AIs, evidence that AI is uncontrollable, and whether designing human-like AI would be safer than the current development path. You can read more about Roman's work at http://cecs.louisville.edu/ry/ Timestamps: 00:00 Is AI like a Shoggoth? 09:50 Scaling laws 16:41 Are humans more general than AIs? 21:54 Are AI models explainable? 27:49 Using AI to explain AI 32:36 Evidence for AI being uncontrollable 40:29 AI verifiability 46:08 Will AI be aligned by default? 54:29 Creating human-like AI 1:03:41 Robotics and safety 1:09:01 Obstacles to AI in the economy 1:18:00 AI innovation with current models 1:23:55 AI accidents in the past and future

Special: Flo Crivello on AI as a New Form of Life Jan 19, 2024

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On this special episode of the podcast, Flo Crivello talks with Nathan Labenz about AI as a new form of life, whether attempts to regulate AI risks regulatory capture, how a GPU kill switch could work, and why Flo expects AGI in 2-8 years. Timestamps: 00:00 Technological progress 07:59 Regulatory capture and AI 11:53 AI as a new form of life 15:44 Can AI development be paused? 20:12 Biden's executive order on AI 22:54 How would a GPU kill switch work? 27:00 Regulating models or applications? 32:13 AGI in 2-8 years 42:00 China and US collaboration on AI

Carl Robichaud on Preventing Nuclear War Jan 06, 2024

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Carl Robichaud joins the podcast to discuss the new nuclear arms race, how much world leaders and ideologies matter for nuclear risk, and how to reach a stable, low-risk era. You can learn more about Carl's work here: https://www.longview.org/about/carl-robichaud/ Timestamps: 00:00 A new nuclear arms race 08:07 How much do world leaders matter? 18:04 How much does ideology matter? 22:14 Do nuclear weapons cause stable peace? 31:29 North Korea 34:01 Have we overestimated nuclear risk? 43:24 Time pressure in nuclear decisions 52:00 Why so many nuclear warheads? 1:02:17 Has containment been successful? 1:11:34 Coordination mechanisms 1:16:31 Technological innovations 1:25:57 Public perception of nuclear risk 1:29:52 Easier access to nuclear weapons 1:33:31 Reaching a stable, low-risk era

Frank Sauer on Autonomous Weapon Systems Dec 14, 2023

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Frank Sauer joins the podcast to discuss autonomy in weapon systems, killer drones, low-tech defenses against drones, the flaws and unpredictability of autonomous weapon systems, and the political possibilities of regulating such systems. You can learn more about Frank's work here: https://metis.unibw.de/en/ Timestamps: 00:00 Autonomy in weapon systems 12:19 Balance of offense and defense 20:05 Killer drone systems 28:53 Is autonomy like nuclear weapons? 37:20 Low-tech defenses against drones 48:29 Autonomy and power balance 1:00:24 Tricking autonomous systems 1:07:53 Unpredictability of autonomous systems 1:13:16 Will we trust autonomous systems too much? 1:27:28 Legal terminology 1:32:12 Political possibilities

Darren McKee on Uncontrollable Superintelligence Dec 01, 2023

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Darren McKee joins the podcast to discuss how AI might be difficult to control, which goals and traits AI systems will develop, and whether there's a unified solution to AI alignment. Timestamps: 00:00 Uncontrollable superintelligence 16:41 AI goals and the "virus analogy" 28:36 Speed of AI cognition 39:25 Narrow AI and autonomy 52:23 Reliability of current and future AI 1:02:33 Planning for multiple AI scenarios 1:18:57 Will AIs seek self-preservation? 1:27:57 Is there a unified solution to AI alignment? 1:30:26 Concrete AI safety proposals

Mark Brakel on the UK AI Summit and the Future of AI Policy Nov 17, 2023

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Mark Brakel (Director of Policy at the Future of Life Institute) joins the podcast to discuss the AI Safety Summit in Bletchley Park, objections to AI policy, AI regulation in the EU and US, global institutions for safe AI, and autonomy in weapon systems. Timestamps: 00:00 AI Safety Summit in the UK 12:18 Are officials up to date on AI? 23:22 Objections to AI policy 31:27 The EU AI Act 43:37 The right level of regulation 57:11 Risks and regulatory tools 1:04:44 Open-source AI 1:14:56 Subsidising AI safety research 1:26:29 Global institutions for safe AI 1:34:34 Autonomy in weapon systems

Dan Hendrycks on Catastrophic AI Risks Nov 03, 2023

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Dan Hendrycks joins the podcast again to discuss X.ai, how AI risk thinking has evolved, malicious use of AI, AI race dynamics between companies and between militaries, making AI organizations safer, and how representation engineering could help us understand AI traits like deception. You can learn more about Dan's work at https://www.safe.ai Timestamps: 00:00 X.ai - Elon Musk's new AI venture 02:41 How AI risk thinking has evolved 12:58 AI bioengeneering 19:16 AI agents 24:55 Preventing autocracy 34:11 AI race - corporations and militaries 48:04 Bulletproofing AI organizations 1:07:51 Open-source models 1:15:35 Dan's textbook on AI safety 1:22:58 Rogue AI 1:28:09 LLMs and value specification 1:33:14 AI goal drift 1:41:10 Power-seeking AI 1:52:07 AI deception 1:57:53 Representation engineering

Samuel Hammond on AGI and Institutional Disruption Oct 20, 2023

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Samuel Hammond joins the podcast to discuss how AGI will transform economies, governments, institutions, and other power structures. You can read Samuel's blog at https://www.secondbest.ca Timestamps: 00:00 Is AGI close? 06:56 Compute versus data 09:59 Information theory 20:36 Universality of learning 24:53 Hards steps in evolution 30:30 Governments and advanced AI 40:33 How will AI transform the economy? 55:26 How will AI change transaction costs? 1:00:31 Isolated thinking about AI 1:09:43 AI and Leviathan 1:13:01 Informational resolution 1:18:36 Open-source AI 1:21:24 AI will decrease state power 1:33:17 Timeline of a techno-feudalist future 1:40:28 Alignment difficulty and AI scale 1:45:19 Solving robotics 1:54:40 A constrained Leviathan 1:57:41 An Apollo Project for AI safety 2:04:29 Secure "gain-of-function" AI research 2:06:43 Is the market expecting AGI soon?

Imagine A World: What if AI advisors helped us make better decisions? Oct 17, 2023

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Are we doomed to a future of loneliness and unfulfilling online interactions? What if technology made us feel more connected instead? Imagine a World is a podcast exploring a range of plausible and positive futures with advanced AI, produced by the Future of Life Institute. We interview the creators of 8 diverse and thought provoking imagined futures that we received as part of the worldbuilding contest FLI ran last year In the eighth and final episode of Imagine A World we explore the fictional worldbuild titled 'Computing Counsel', one of the third place winners of FLI’s worldbuilding contest. Guillaume Riesen talks to Mark L, one of the three members of the team behind 'Computing Counsel', a third-place winner of the FLI Worldbuilding Contest. Mark is a machine learning expert with a chemical engineering degree, as well as an amateur writer. His teammates are Patrick B, a mechanical engineer and graphic designer, and Natalia C, a biological anthropologist and amateur programmer. This world paints a vivid, nuanced picture of how emerging technologies shape society. We have advertisers competing with ad-filtering technologies and an escalating arms race that eventually puts an end to the internet as we know it. There is AI-generated art so personalized that it becomes addictive to some consumers, while others boycott media technologies altogether. And corporations begin to throw each other under the bus in an effort to redistribute the wealth of their competitors to their own customers. While these conflicts are messy, they generally end up empowering and enriching the lives of the people in this world. New kinds of AI systems give them better data, better advice, and eventually the opportunity for genuine relationships with the beings these tools have become. The impact of any technology on society is complex and multifaceted. This world does a great job of capturing that. While social networking technologies become ever more powerful, the networks of people they connect don't necessarily just get wider and shallower. Instead, they tend to be smaller and more intimately interconnected. The world's inhabitants also have nuanced attitudes towards A.I. tools, embracing or avoiding their applications based on their religious or philosophical beliefs. Please note: This episode explores the ideas created as part of FLI’s worldbuilding contest, and our hope is that this series sparks discussion about the kinds of futures we want. The ideas present in these imagined worlds and in our podcast are not to be taken as FLI endorsed positions. Explore this worldbuild: https://worldbuild.ai/computing-counsel The podcast is produced by the Future of Life Institute (FLI), a non-profit dedicated to guiding transformative technologies for humanity's benefit and reducing existential risks. To achieve this we engage in policy advocacy, grantmaking and educational outreach across three major areas: artificial intelligence, nuclear weapons, and biotechnology. If you are a storyteller, FLI can support you with scientific insights and help you understand the incredible narrative potential of these world-changing technologies. If you would like to learn more, or are interested in collaborating with the teams featured in our episodes, please email worldbuild@futureoflife.org. You can find more about our work at www.futureoflife.org, or subscribe to our newsletter to get updates on all our projects.

Imagine A World: What if narrow AI fractured our shared reality? Oct 10, 2023

Show notes

Let’s imagine a future where AGI is developed but kept at a distance from practically impacting the world, while narrow AI remakes the world completely. Most people don’t know or care about the difference and have no idea how they could distinguish between a human or artificial stranger. Inequality sticks around and AI fractures society into separate media bubbles with irreconcilable perspectives. But it's not all bad. AI markedly improves the general quality of life, enhancing medicine and therapy, and those bubbles help to sustain their inhabitants. Can you get excited about a world with these tradeoffs? Imagine a World is a podcast exploring a range of plausible and positive futures with advanced AI, produced by the Future of Life Institute. We interview the creators of 8 diverse and thought provoking imagined futures that we received as part of the worldbuilding contest FLI ran last year In the seventh episode of Imagine A World we explore a fictional worldbuild titled 'Hall of Mirrors', which was a third-place winner of FLI's worldbuilding contest. Michael Vasser joins Guillaume Riesen to discuss his imagined future, which he created with the help of Matija Franklin and Bryce Hidysmith. Vassar was formerly the president of the Singularity Institute, and co-founded Metamed; more recently he has worked on communication across political divisions. Franklin is a PhD student at UCL working on AI Ethics and Alignment. Finally, Hidysmith began in fashion design, passed through fortune-telling before winding up in finance and policy research, at places like Numerai, the Median Group, Bismarck Analysis, and Eco.com. Hall of Mirrors is a deeply unstable world where nothing is as it seems. The structures of power that we know today have eroded away, survived only by shells of expectation and appearance. People are isolated by perceptual bubbles and struggle to agree on what is real. This team put a lot of effort into creating a plausible, empirically grounded world, but their work is also notable for its irreverence and dark humor. In some ways, this world is kind of a caricature of the present. We see deeper isolation and polarization caused by media, and a proliferation of powerful but ultimately limited AI tools that further erode our sense of objective reality. A deep instability threatens. And yet, on a human level, things seem relatively calm. It turns out that the stories we tell ourselves about the world have a lot of inertia, and so do the ways we live our lives. Please note: This episode explores the ideas created as part of FLI’s worldbuilding contest, and our hope is that this series sparks discussion about the kinds of futures we want. The ideas present in these imagined worlds and in our podcast are not to be taken as FLI endorsed positions. Explore this worldbuild: https://worldbuild.ai/hall-of-mirrors The podcast is produced by the Future of Life Institute (FLI), a non-profit dedicated to guiding transformative technologies for humanity's benefit and reducing existential risks. To achieve this we engage in policy advocacy, grantmaking and educational outreach across three major areas: artificial intelligence, nuclear weapons, and biotechnology. If you are a storyteller, FLI can support you with scientific insights and help you understand the incredible narrative potential of these world-changing technologies. If you would like to learn more, or are interested in collaborating with the teams featured in our episodes, please email worldbuild@futureoflife.org. You can find more about our work at www.futureoflife.org, or subscribe to our newsletter to get updates on all our projects.

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