Forward Guidance

Latest Episodes:

Short Selling in the Age of Fraud | Carson Block Mar 20, 2022

Show notes

On today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Carson Block, Investor & Founder of Muddy Waters Research. Known for his role in activist short selling, Carson shares how he began his career in investing, what led him to being an activist short seller & reflects on the past two years of markets in the face of reckless monetary policy.

Carson goes on to share the hows and whys of short selling, techniques for identifying fraudulent companies, differences between short selling in China vs the U.S, the role of activist short selling in markets and much more.

Carson Block on Twitter @muddywatersre

Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96

Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks_

BCB is Europe’s leading provider of business accounts and trading services for the digital asset economy. With a dedicated focus on institutional payment services, BCB Group provides business banking, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange market liquidity for some of the world’s largest crypto-engaged financial institutions.

BCB Business Accounts allow businesses to load fiat currency and cryptocurrencies for payments, operations and trading purposes. BCB’s clients can trade FX and cryptocurrencies quickly and at scale, with market-leading value. BCB’s BLINC network is the European crypto industry’s first instant settlements network and one of the first real-time payment networks of its kind to allow free, real-time transactions across fiat and digital currencies.

For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack.

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Options Trading for Macro Investors | Imran Lakha Mar 17, 2022

Show notes

In today's episode of Forward Guidance, class is back in session with Imran Lakha as the attending professor. Going through the basics of options, Lakha turns his attentions not only to the absolute fundamentals, but to the whys and hows of options, explaining their use, what can affect them, and when and where they should not be used. Not only is this a perfunctory lesson in options but a deeper dive into their function into the economic world for beginners and masters alike of the macro trade.

Lakha on Twitter: @options_insight

Farley on Twitter: @JackFarley96

Blockworks on Twitter: @Blockworks_

The Bond Market Has Spoken. Should Investors Listen? | Joseph Wang & Harley Bassman Mar 16, 2022

Show notes

The yield curve has flattened dramatically - should investors be worried as the curve is very close to inverting? Joseph Wang & Harley Bassman are on the case.

Follow Harley Bassman @ConvexityMaven

Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12

Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96

Follow @Blockworks_

Bassman's most recent piece: https://www.convexitymaven.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Convexity-Maven-Dangerous-Curves-Ahead.pdf

Wang's most recent piece: https://fedguy.com/breaking-the-system/

Fed Faces "Debt Death Spiral" While Inflation Soars | Luke Gromen & Jim Bianco Mar 13, 2022

Show notes

In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley is joined by Jim Bianco of Bianco Research and Luke Gromen, Founder of FFTT to discuss the situation the Fed finds itself in the face of the highest inflation in 40 years.

With a debt to GDP over 100%, is the Fed trapped and inflation the only way out? Luke discusses the post 1971 Nixon shock's effect on the Dollar and walks us through the series of events which led to the Fed now being faced with, a "debt death spiral".

Jim explains how inflation is President Biden's biggest problem and what this means for rate hikes ahead of FOMC. Are there signs of a recession in the U.S economy as commodities soar, the 2s 10s yield curve spread tightens & OIS spreads turn negative?

Jim & Luke provide an absolute macro power hour you CAN'T afford to miss. To hear their thoughts on commodities, stress in the treasury market, effect of Russia & Ukraine conflict, sanctions speeding up the trend of de-dollarization & the death of globilazation, you're just going to have to tune in to find out.

For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack.

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Gold to $10,000 in The Big Reset | Willem Middelkoop Mar 10, 2022

Show notes

Willem Middelkoop, Founder & Chief Investment Officer of the Dutch-based Commodity Discovery Fund joins Forward Guidance to asses the macro forces driving commodity markets. What effect will war in Ukraine have on wheat, natural gas & oil prices around the globe? Willem goes on to discuss his book from 2014 titled 'The Big Reset: War on Gold and the Financial Endgame' and how current events are shaping a monetary reset.

Willem also describes the famous 1971 Nixon shock, what a gold revaluation would look like, how sanctions could effect commodity markets, the roadmap to a $1 Million Bitcoin & how investors can navigate these volatile markets.

Willem Middelkoop on Twitter @wmiddelkoop

Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96

Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks_

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Does The Fed Control The Dollar? | Jeff Snider & Joseph Wang Mar 08, 2022

Show notes

Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Joseph Wang and Jeff Snider to discuss the Fed's control of the dollar and recent news surrounding the dollar's weight and worth.

Follow Jeff Snider @JeffSnider_AIP

Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12

Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96

Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_

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The "Money Illusion" Keeps the Economy Hot | Juliette Declercq Mar 06, 2022

Show notes

In today's episode of Forward Guidance, Jack Farley welcome Juliette Declercq to a thorough investigation into what's driving our economy and how it gets hurt. With her expertise and personal knowledge of the situation, Juliette and Jack analyse the market, looking at specific commodities and tracking trends showing up in our everyday.

For more information, please visit https://bcbgroup.com/jack

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Kharkiv Under Siege Yet Russian Oil Still Flows | Jacob Shapiro Mar 04, 2022

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Blockworks' Jack Farley of Forward Guidance goes LIVE with Jacob Shapiro to discuss the latest news and finds regarding the turmoil between Russia and Ukraine.

Follow Jacob Shapiro @JacobShap

Follow Jack Farley @JackFarley96

Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_

Follow Perch Perspectives @PerchSpectives

Follow Lykeion @thelykeion

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The Central Bank Of Russia Is On The Defensive with Joseph Wang & Frances Coppola Mar 03, 2022

Show notes

Frances Coppola and Joseph Wang break down the true implications and mechanics of sanctions against Russia.

Key learnings include:

1) SWIFT isn't a payment rail, it's a messaging system.

2) The sanctions on Russian commercial banks don't go into effect until March 26 and contain many loopholes

3) The sanctions on the Russia's Central Bank were declared by governments but *require* action from Fed + ECB

4) The U.S. Treasury provided Russian commercial banks with a diagram teaching them how to circumvent its own policy

Follow Frances Coppola @Frances_Coppola

Follow Joseph Wang @FedGuy12

Follow @JackFarley96

Follow Blockworks @Blockworks_

How Passive HODL-ing Of Stocks Leads to Extreme Crashes | Mike Green Feb 27, 2022

Show notes

Mike Green, portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, joins Forward Guidance to make sense of the market turmoil that has caught investors off guard so early on in 2022. Green tells Jack Farley why he thinks the rotation from growth stocks to the so-called “inflation-trades” (energy, industrial, and commodity stocks, for example), might have gotten ahead of itself.

Green examines the mechanics of how passive flows distort price discovery and cause tendencies for the market to drift steadily higher while also raising the risk of extreme downward price movements. He explains how options overlays can take advantage of this environment and discusses his decision to bring those products to investors in an ETF wrapper. Green also discusses Simplify’s new credit hedge ETFs, AGGH and CDX. Green argues that inflation will relent soon, and that the future rate hikes priced into the bond market likely overstate how far the Federal Reserve will actually raise rates.

Mike Green on Twitter @profplum99

Simplify on Twitter @SimplifyETFs

Jack Farley on Twitter @JackFarley96

Blockworks on Twitter @Blockworks_

For more information, please visit https://www.bcbgroup.com/jack

Two papers Green discusses:

Xavier Gabaix & Ralph S. J. Koijen, “In Search of the Origins of Financial Fluctuations: The Inelastic Markets Hypothesis”: https://www.nber.org/papers/w28967

Lasse Heje Pedersen, “Sharpening the Arithmetic of Active Management”: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2849071

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