Forward Guidance

Latest Episodes:

Long Stocks, Long Dollar, Short Gold | Jason Shapiro May 26, 2023

Show notes

Jason Shapiro, veteran trader and founder of The Crowded Market Report, joins Jack Farley on Forward Guidance to share his contrarian trading style and to explain why he remains long stocks even after this year’s huge equity rally. Shapiro shares wisdom from his long career of trading, as well as why he is long the dollar and short gold. Filmed on May 25, 2023.

____

Follow Jason Shapiro on Twitter https://twitter.com/Crowded_Mkt_Rpt

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

____

Use code GUIDANCE20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:

https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

____

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:

https://rb.gy/5weeyw

Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos

____

Timestamps:

(00:00) Jason's Early Years In Hong Kong

(01:47) "Too Much Leverage Is A Bad Thing"

(04:52) Importance of Journaling Your Trades

(07:37) The Essence Of Successful Contrarianism

(09:54) Why Jason Has Been Bullish On Stocks All Year

(14:42) Commitment of Traders (COT) Report

(17:54) Why Jason Is Short Gold

(22:28) Permissionless

(23:03) Futures Positioning vs. Positioning Of The Whole Market

(28:22) Why Are Speculators Wrong At Extremes?

(34:20) Why CTAs Performed So Poorly This Year (Commodity Trading Advisor)

(40:22) Blockworks Research

(41:22) You Need Confirmation From The Market

(46:38) Long Stocks, Short Gold Remains High Conviction Trade

(48:57) Stop Losses

(50:36) Bank Stocks

(51:55) Why Jason Is Short The Euro

(53:12) Risk of Recession and Debt Ceiling

(01:09:26) Why Vast Majority Of Investors Don't Beat The Index

____

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Bull Market In Oil Is Over (For Now) | Paul Sankey May 22, 2023

Show notes

On todays episode of Forward Guidance, Oil market veteran Paul Sankey of Sankey Research joins the show for a discussion on the cyclical vs secular trends in the oil market that investors should be paying attention to.

Highlighting how the current market is extremely difficult to trade directionally, as oil remains rangebound after it's 2022 highs of over $100 a barrel, Paul outlines both the supply & demand picture in 2023. Paul goes on to explain the four structural drivers of oil prices, energy companies profitability with oil sitting around the $70 mark & what investors can expect throughout the rest of 2023. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

Follow Paul on Twitter: https://twitter.com/crudegusher

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw

Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:17) Paul's Oil Market Outlook

(10:25) Oil Companies Profitability

(11:37) Why Is Oil Demand Lower Than Expected In 2023?

(17:40) Why Is This Oil Market So Tough To Trade?

(19:42) The Four Structural Drivers Of Oil Prices

(22:52) Permissionless

(23:55) Are Oil Equties Cheap?

(35:28) The Political Cycle Is Shorter Than The Energy Cycle

(39:18) How Does Oil Perform During A Recession?

(44:44) The Economics Of ESG

(47:03) Blockworks Research

(48:02) Warren Buffett Continues Buying $OXY

(54:09) The Correlation Between Bank Stocks & Oil

(57:26) Sankey Research

(01:02:23) Small & Mid Size Oil Companies In Canada

The Return Of Bank Runs | Sheila Bair, Former FDIC Chair May 19, 2023

Show notes

During her tenure as Chair of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) from 2006 to 2011, Sheila Bair managed over 300 bank failures, including the collapse of Washington Mutual in September 2008, the largest bank failure in American history.

Bair joins Forward Guidance to apply her vast experience to share insight on recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic. Filmed the afternoon of May 18, 2023.

____

Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance

to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor.

____

Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us

Follow Sheila Bair on Twitter https://twitter.com/SheilaBair2013

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

____

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(06:37) Right Now, The Main Issue Is Interest Rate Risk

(12:56) What Causes A Bank Run?

(17:55) Are Bank Runs Faster In An Age of Mobile Banking?

(21:55) Van Eck Ad

(22:45) Money Market Funds and The Fed's Reverse Repo Facility Is Where A Lot Of Bank Money Is Going

(25:33) Risk Of Further Big Bank Consolidation

(29:51) Best Time To Shut Down A Bank Is Friday Night

(31:10) Federal Reserve Lending To Insolvent Institutions Increases The FDIC's Cost To Resolve Failed Banks

(32:53) How To Know When To Shut Down A Failing Bank

(34:51) "I Was Surprised At The Biden Administration's Level Of Involvement"

(37:12) The Systemic Risk Determination, Explained

(42:56) 2018 Loosening Of Regulation of Regional Banks

(47:35) Forcing Banks To Raise More Equity (i.e. sell stock)

(49:31) The Federal Reserve's Role As Bank Regulator

____

Nicholas Glinsman on Banks, Commercial Real Estate, and China May 18, 2023

Show notes

Nicholas Glinsman, macro investor and co-founder of Malmgren Glinsman Partners, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on banks, commercial real estate, and China. Glinsman says that he and his partner Harald Malmgren expect a ban on new foreign investment into China will be “imminently” passed via executive order of U.S. President Biden.

____

Malmgren Glinsman Partners is a research partner of Forward Guidance. To get discounted access to the Malmgren Glinsman Daily note (“Ahead Of The Heard”), go to https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/discount/Forward%2520Guidance?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fmalmgern-glinsman-partners-daily-ahead-of-the-herd

And use code “Forward Guidance” at checkout to get a discounted rate of $900/year. “Ahead of The Heard” typically is released at a daily cadence so subscribers can expect 5-6 issues per week.

To obtain access to Malmgren Glinsman’s institutional product, a long-form research note aiming to flag for large institutional investors important market-driving issues before they hit the news, go to https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/discount/Blockworks?redirect=%2Fproducts%2Fmalmgren-institutional-research

And use code “Blockworks” for discounted rate of $40,000 / year. Clients can be expect publication of research 1-4 times per month.

____

Follow Nicholas Glinsman on Twitter https://twitter.com/nglinsman

Follow Harald Malmgren on Twitter https://twitter.com/Halsrethink

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

____

Timestamps:

(00:00) The De-Dollarization Narrative

(04:28) Maybe The Fed Is Not Done Hiking?

(05:48) Banking System

(08:43) Commercial Real Estate

(32:30) Views on Bond Yields and Volatility

(42:10) China and Reverse CFIUS

(01:18:07) Imminent Ban On Foreign Investment Into China Is Coming, Says Glinsman

____

The Fed's Playbook for Fighting Bank Panics, Now vs. The Great Depression | Dr. Jane Knodell May 15, 2023

Show notes

Jane Knodell, professor of economics at the University of Vermont and Author joins the show for a historical comparison between the previous bank runs & the banking turmoil of 2023. Knodell reflects on the development of the U.S banking system throughout history, the measures taken today to curb deposit flight and how the Federal Reserve ultimately became the lender of last resort. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

—

Follow Jane: https://twitter.com/JaneKnodell

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw

—

Referenced In The Show:

Making a Central Bank Out of the Federal Reserve: A Historical Perspective on Wartime Amendments to the Federal Reserve Act: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/368342410_Making_a_Central_Bank_Out_of_the_Federal_Reserve_A_Historical_Perspective_on_Wartime_Amendments_to_the_Federal_Reserve_Act

Fighting Financial Crises Learning from the Past Gary B. Gorton and Ellis W. Tallman: https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/F/bo26527334.html

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:19) Historial Comparisons To 2023's Banking Turmoil

(02:37) The Difference Between Solvency & Liquidty In A Bank Run

(07:17) Making a Central Bank Out of the Federal Reserve

(11:42) The Role of Gold In The Federal Reserve's History

(17:00) Why Did Gold Flee To The Fed In 1917?

(22:57) Permissionless ad

(24:00) The Federal Reserve: The Lender Of Last Resot

(29:51) How Has The Banking System Developed Throughout U.S History?

(35:21) The Collapse Of Silicon Valley Bank

(38:11) The Bank Term Funding Program

(41:14) All Roads Lead Back To Congress

(46:50) Learning From The Lesson's Of The Great Depression

(55:37) The Looming Debt Ceiling

(58:19) Blockworks Research

(59:20) The Trillion Dollar Coin

—

Why Bank Money Is “Disappearing” | Patrick Perret-Green May 12, 2023

Show notes

Last year, Patrick Perret-Green, veteran bond trader and macro strategist, warned his clients that plummeting liquidity at regional U.S. banks could cause serious issues. Now that these issues have made themselves apparent with the fall of three U.S. banks, Perret-Green of PPG Macro joins Forward Guidance to share his views on bank liquidity, loan growth, and credit risks within banks as well as shadow banks. Filmed on May 11, 2023.

Follow Patrick Perret-Green on Twitter https://twitter.com/PPGMacro

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

____

Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:

https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

____

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:

https://rb.gy/5weeyw

____

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:28) Patrick's 2022 Warnings About Banks

(10:33) Credit Risks

(15:49) Shadow Banking System

(19:35) Permissionless

(20:38) Loan Growth

(29:17) Global Liquidity Is Collapsing

(34:32) Foreign Banks Are Having Issues

(37:20) The Pain Trade Is For The Dollar To Go Higher

(40:11) Rate Hikes "An Economic War Crime"?

(43:34) Commercial Real Estate

(49:42) Bank Run Risks

(56:14) Blockworks Research

(57:16) Where Are Interests Rates Headed?

(01:00:54) China

(01:08:50) Closing Thoughts

Why The U.S. Dollar Could Fall Even In A Recession | Jens Nordvig May 11, 2023

Show notes

Jens Nordvig, founder and CEO of ExAnte Data and MarketReader, joins Jack Farley to give his data-driven look at bank lending, de-dollarization, and global growth. Nordvig notes that bank lending contraction has not yet appeared in the data but that the situation deserves to be monitored. He explains why the world continues to rely on the U.S. dollar and exposes several statistical misunderstandings of data on Chinese and U.S. sovereign bond flows. Nevertheless, he is bearish on the U.S. dollar (even in a recession, perhaps), and he explains why in great detail. He says to be on watch if the U.S. Dollar continues to decline in value during a stock market fall (historically, the U.S. Dollar rallies during a sell-off in stocks). Lastly, Nordvig shares findings from his exciting new venture, MarketReader, which aims to use artificial intelligence to help generate insights for investors.

____

Follow Jens Nordvig on Twitter https://twitter.com/jnordvig

Follow Exante on Twitter https://twitter.com/ExanteData

Follow MarketReader on Twitter https://twitter.com/MarketReaderInc

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

____

Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:

https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

____

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:

https://rb.gy/5weeyw

____

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:27) Tracking Capital Flows

(01:43) Where Is The Money Going?

(19:53) The Dollar And The Euro

(25:30) Blockworks Research

(26:29) Is The "De-Dollarization Narrative" Backed Up By The Data?

(38:04) Is China Actually Dumping U.S. Treasurys?

(41:14) Central Banks' Swap-Adjusted FX Reserves Do Not Show Significant De-Dollarization

(46:18) Bearish Near-Term Case For The Dollar

(57:14) Permissionless

(58:15) About MarketReader's Emerging Artificial Intelligence Capabilities

(01:11:52) Closing thoughts On The Dollar & Stock Market Correlation

____

Michael Pettis: China's Economic Growth Model Is Dying May 08, 2023

Show notes

Michael Pettis, Professor of Finance at Peking University and senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins Jack Farley to share his thoughts on the Chinese economic growth model, which Pettis argues faces severe challenges.

Today’s show is brought to you by VanEck. Go to https://vaneck.com/ForwardGuidance

to access VanEck's Income Investing Yield Monitor.

Follow @vaneck_us on Twitter, this episode's sponsor https://twitter.com/vaneck_us

Follow Michael Pettis on Twitter https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:40) China's Economic Growth Model

(18:32) The Explosion of Debt in China

(26:01) Van Eck ad

(26:51) Domestic Consumption In China

(35:04) How The Chinese Banking System Actually Works

(39:04) Beijing's Controlled Demolition Of The Chinese Real Estate Bubble

(43:20) Trade Imbalances Have Facilitated Massive Debt Creation in The U.S. And China

(49:01) Why China's Use Of The Dollar Will Likely Continue

(01:00:46) The Chinese Stock Market Does Not Track The Chinese Economy

(01:02:45) Is The People's Bank Of China Adding Liquidity?

(01:04:55) Chinese Growth in 2023 Could Actually Be Strong Relative To The U.S.

(01:08:28) Closing Thoughts On Long-Term Chinese Economic Growth: Why The Pessimists Aren't Pessimistic Enough

The Fed’s "Controlled Demolition" of The Financial System | Danielle DiMartino Booth May 04, 2023

Show notes

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at QI Research, returns to Forward Guidance to share her thoughts on May 3rd’s Federal Reserve’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as well as the ongoing issues at several regional U.S. banks.

Follow Danielle DiMartino Booth https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

____

Apply to host the “Lightspeed” podcast on Blockworks at https://blockworks.co/careers

Use code GUIDANCE10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:

https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

____

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:

https://rb.gy/5weeyw

____

(00:00) Intro

(11:02) When Will The Fed Pivot (Cut Rates)?

(15:40) Powell Wants To Get Rid Of The Fed Put

(25:20) Calling Inflation "Transitory" Was "A Path To Hell"

(29:11) "Powell Will Stand His Ground"

(34:30) Permissionless

(35:34) The Balance Sheet

(40:17) Powell Won't Save The Banks

(47:41) Blockworks Research

(48:41) The Debt Ceiling

(54:08) "This Is Going To Be A Really Ugly Recession"

(58:03) Door To A June Hike Is Ajar

(59:11) The Bernanke Doctrine

(01:01:26) Danielle's Views On Private Credit Are Evolving

Nick Timiraos: The Fed Doesn't Want Bank Failures In The News May 04, 2023

Show notes

Nick Timiraos, chief economics correspondent for the Wall Street Journal and author of “Trillion Dollar Triage” joins Jack Farley to share his analysis of yesterday’s meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC). Filmed at 10am ET on May 4, 2023.

---

Timiraos' article on May 3 Fed meeting: https://www.wsj.com/articles/federal-reserve-raises-rates-signals-potential-pause-eb264784

Timiraos’ article on 2006 hiking cycle: https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-a-fed-debate-17-years-ago-reveals-about-its-rate-deliberations-now-4835936

Timiraos’ book, “Trillion Dollar Triage”: https://www.amazon.com/Trillion-Dollar-Triage-President-Pandemic/dp/0316272817

Our TOPPODCAST Picks

Follow Us

Stay Connected

Related Podcasts

Links

Stay Connected