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    Business

    Forward Guidance

    The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.

    Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
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    Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
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    Latest Episodes:
    Citrini: The Next Phase of The Stock Market's AI-Obsession Feb 07, 2024
    Show notes

    Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more.


    VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/

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    Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

    __

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:26) Citrini Lived Up To Jack's Nickname as "Hottest AI Stockpicker" (Here's The Proof)

    (17:21) VanEck Ad

    (18:04) Citrini's View on The Magnificent Seven

    (28:49) Fiscal Spending Not Set To Decline, Regardless Of Who Wins U.S. Presidential Election

    (30:49) Citrini's Basket Of Fiscal Beneficiaries

    (33:27) How Citrini Conducts His Research

    (45:07) Citrini's Risk Management

    (54:25) A Theme That Hasn't Worked: China


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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


    Dean Curnutt: Market Insurance Is Cheap, Stock-Bond Correlation Is Positive, And “Interesting” VIX Opportunities Feb 05, 2024
    Show notes

    Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more.

    Dean Curnutt, founder and CEO of Macro Risk Advisors, joins Forward Guidance to share how the ongoing bull market has led to a bear market in volatility. Realized and implied vol has fallen sharply as the market has grinded higher, which has created some interesting opportunities to hedge risk. Curnutt notes that the correlation between stocks and bonds remains positive, which is worrisome for diversified investors. Curnutt is also the host of Alpha Exchange podcast. Filmed on January 25, 2024.

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    Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

    __

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:36) Preparing For Risk Off Events

    (16:13) VanEck Ad

    (20:09) Fed Rate Cuts In 2024

    (25:49) Volatility

    (33:16) How Low Can The VIX Go?

    (42:27) Volatility Risk Premium

    (46:53) Credit Volatility

    (54:02) U.S Elections & Volatility Risk

    (01:03:43) What Is The Vol Structure Pricing In?

    (01:13:09) When To Buy Cheap Volatility?

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


    Joseph Wang On “Hawkish” Fed Meeting: March Cuts Unlikely, Tapering of Quantitative Tightening (QT) To Begin In Q4 2024 | Joseph Wang, Michael Ippolito, and Jack Farley Feb 01, 2024
    Show notes

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    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.

    VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/

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    Jack, Joseph Wang, and Mike Ippolito break down the January Fed meeting. Recorded shortly after the Powell press conference on January 31, 2024.

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    Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

    __

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:41) Joseph's View on Jan FOMC: "This Was A Hawkish Fed Conference"

    (07:51) Joseph's View On Asset Prices

    (10:04) Joseph's View on Rates

    (20:52) Vaneck Ad

    (21:37) The Plumbing Of How The Government & Fed Prints Money

    (32:41) Treasury Issuance (QRA, Quarterly Refunding Announcement)

    (39:01) Joseph's View on Fed's Quantitative Tightening (QT): Taper Could Likely Begin In Q4 2024

    (44:57) Fed's Plan For Discount Window & End Of Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP)

    (49:31) Joseph Wang: Fiscal Deficits Will Likely Continue To Fuel Bull Market In Risk Assets

    (52:19) Concentration of Stock Market Rally

    (01:00:12) Jack Puts On Tin Foil Hat Re: Fed Language & New York Community Bank (NYCB)

    (01:02:44) Closing Thoughts: Plumbing People Are Not Always Bearish!!


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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


    U.S. Treasury Issuance To Exceed $1.1 Trillion (Gross) In Second Quarter, Predicts Plumbing Savant John Comiskey Jan 29, 2024
    Show notes

    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.

    VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/

    John Comiskey’s day job does not involve processing reams of data on the daily deposits and withdrawals of the U.S. Treasury’s bank account in order to predict how much the U.S. government will borrow and when. He does that at night. Comiskey joins Forward Guidance to share how he taught himself the workings of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet before realizing that most of the action was at the Treasury, not the Fed. Comiskey shares in great detail the predictions about how much the U.S.Treasury will borrow in 2024. Filmed on January 24, 2024.

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    Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

    __

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:14) John's Start In Market Plumbing (Why Fed's Listed Balance Sheet Originally Didn't Go Down When Quantitative Tightening Started in 2022)

    (06:02) Debt Ceiling Ex Date In 2023

    (09:27) Treasurys: Coupons vs. Bills

    (15:30) The Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) In November 2023

    (22:36) Q2 Quarterly Refunding Announcement (1.1 Trillion of Gross Issuance, Comiskey Expects)

    (27:20) VanEck Ad

    (36:12) The Goals And Obligations Of The U.S. Treasury

    (43:51) Why Is The U.S. Deficit So Large?

    (53:19) Some States Have Been Very Late With Paying Their Taxes

    (59:34) The U.S. Fiscal Deficit in 2024 and Beyond

    (01:04:40) Comiskey's Doubts That The Fed Will End Quantitative Tightening (QT) As Early As Some Expect

    (01:11:49) Is This All Sustainable?

    (01:16:51) Concluding Thoughts

    (01:01:04) Private Credit And CLOs

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


    Chris Whalen: Commercial Real Estate "Trainwreck” Will Hit Banking System, Consumer Credit Is Normalizing, and Interest Rate Cuts Won’t Do Much To Help Banks Jan 26, 2024
    Show notes

    Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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    Chris Whalen of Whalen Global Advisors returns to Forward Guidance to share his outlook on the U.S. banking sector for 2024. Whalen argues that consumer and business credit is faring fine, as delinquencies are rising but from ultra-low levels. He does worry that commercial real estate (CRE) loans will continue to suffer impairment as losses are realized in 2024. Whalen notes that while the decline in long-term bond yields since early November 2023 has improved banks’ unrealized losses on held-to-maturity (HTM) securities, and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will not help banks that much as their deposit costs will be slow to fall. Filmed on January 24, 2024.

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    Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

    __

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:31) Troubles In Commercial Real Estate

    (07:28) This Will Be A Slow-Motion Train Wreck

    (11:01) Consumer Credit Is Normalizing (Delinquencies Are Rising From Very Low Levels)

    (16:13) VanEck Ad

    (16:57) Updated Views On Banks' Interest Rate Exposure

    (24:52) The Fed Is Unlikely To Cut Interest Rates 6 Times This Year, Argues Whalen

    (30:13) Fed Will Stop Quantitative Tightening Sooner Than Market Expects

    (32:32) Lowest Comfortable Level of Reserves (LCLoR)

    (33:49) Discount Window, Standing Repo Facility, and Reverse Repo Facility

    (39:00) Medium Term, Short-Term Rates Will Fall and Yield Curve Will Normalize

    (41:24) Basel III Endgame

    (45:32) Mortgage Servicing Rights (MSRs) and Gain On Sale

    (51:42) Net Income Will Likely Fall At Banks - "Don't Look For Roses And Sunshine"

    (01:01:04) Private Credit And CLOs

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.



    David Kotok on Financial Stability, Federal Reserve, Stock Market, and Cuba Jan 25, 2024
    Show notes

    Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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    David Kotok, co-founder and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, joins Jack fresh off his trip to Cuba, to share insights about the Cuban financial system. Kotok argues that the Federal Reserve has demonstrated its commitment to financial stability, which is very bullish for U.S. financial assets. With that being said, Kotok has his concerns. Filmed on January 23, 2024. Kotok is also a board member of the Global Interdependence Center (GIC) and host of the eponymous “Camp Kotok.”

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    Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

    __

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:38) The Bond Market Rollercoaster

    (04:54) The Municipal Bond Market

    (12:18) The Importance Of Financial Stability

    (17:14) The Fed Prevented A Banking Run In March 2023

    (22:36) Incentive for "Fed To Move Slowly"

    (24:29) VanEck Ad

    (25:09) Cuba

    (29:43) U.S. Dollar Is The Most Popular Currency In Cuba

    (35:42) Inflation and Credit In Cuba

    (44:47) Cuba's International Relations

    (48:25) David Kotok's View On The U.S. Stock Market

    (51:53) U.S. Economic Outlook

    (59:41) The Fed's Balance Sheet Policy In 2024

    (01:03:00) Inflation In LCLoR (Lowest Comfortable Level of Reserves)

    (01:06:00) Treasury's Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) Is Not Very Relevant In The Long-Term

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


    Neil Dutta: Why There Was No Recession In 2023 Jan 22, 2024
    Show notes

    Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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    Throughout much of 2022 and 2023, that a recession was imminent was the base case among mainstream economists. Neil Dutta, Head of Economic Research at Renaissance Macro LLC, was among the few to defy this consensus. Why? Household balance sheets were strong and the labor market was tight. Will this strength continue in 2024? Dutta is relatively optimistic on spending over the next sixt months, and thinks that, if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as it has indicated, a “soft landing” is very achievable. However, Dutta notes that if the Fed does not cut and interest rates remain restrictive, his outlook may change throughout the year. Filmed on January 19, 2022.

    __

    Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including

    possible loss of principal. Visit VanEck.com or call 800-826-2333 to carefully read a

    prospectus before investing. The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) is

    distributed by VanEck Securities Corporation, a wholly-owned subsidiary of VanEck

    Associates Corporation

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    Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

    __

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:25) Why The Much-Anticipated Recession of 2023 Never Arrived

    (03:53) How "Leading Indicators" Were Giving False Recession Signals

    (06:32) Why The Leading Indicators Were Wrong

    (11:18) You Typically Don't See A Recession When Real Incomes Are Rising

    (13:19) Setting The Record Straight On "Excess Savings" Narrative

    (16:30) VanEck Ad

    (20:13) The Fed and Interest Rates

    (22:55) Long Lags = Nonsense?

    (26:21) Neil Dutta's Economic Outlook: Real Incomes Will Continue To Grow Into Summer 2024

    (27:00) Inflation Is Falling By A Lot More Than People Think

    (28:33) The Bond Market Has Been Dead Wrong This Cycle

    (31:08) Credit Conditions And The Banking System

    (34:11) Delinquencies

    (35:49) The Labor Market Is Strong But Cooling

    (40:54) If Fed Doesn't Cut, That Would Be A Tightening Of Financial Conditions That Could Slow Economy

    (42:12) Views On Stocks, Bonds, and Sectors

    (45:00) China

    (46:29) Election Risk For The Bond Market

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.



    Campbell Harvey, Inventor of Inverted Yield Curve Recession Signal, On The Bond Market, The U.S. Economy, And Federal Reserve Policy Jan 18, 2024
    Show notes

    Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG,.

    __

    So many market participants now regard an inverted yield curve as a harbinger of a recession, due to the indicator’s perfect track record of preceding an economic slowdown. Today, Jack interviews the founder of this economic indicator, Campbell R. Harvey. Harvey shares how he discovered this signal in the bond market in the 1980s, and how it has an 8 out 8 track record in preceding recessions (with zero false signal). An inverted yield curve is when short-term interest rates exceed long-term interest rates. Harvey’s specific signal on which he wrote his dissertation in 1986 (his thesis advisor was Eugene Fama, Nobel Prize-winning economist) was the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 3-month Treasury yield. It is this indicator which has an 8/8 perfect track record, not the 2s10s (10-year Treasury yield minus the 2-year Treasury yield), which as Harvey notes gave a false signal in 1998.

    Harvey argues that since his 10-year / 3-month signal inverted in the fall of 2022, the first and second quarter of 2024 is when a potential economic slowdown would occur (the average lag between the inversion of the 10-year / 3-month spread is 12 months, but the longest lag is 22 months). However, Harvey notes that there are several positive forces supporting the U.S. economy, such as fiscal stimulus and a strong labor market, as seen by job vacancies in excess of unemployment. While Harvey hopes that these forces can induce a “soft landing,” it is his base case that the 10-year / 3-month inversion will go 9 for 9 in forecasting an economic slowdown.

    Harvey is Professor of Finance at Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Director of Research and Partner at Research Affiliates, and author of the book “DeFi and the Future of Finance.” Filmed on January 16, 2024.

    __

    Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Visit VanEck.com or call 800-826-2333 to carefully read a prospectus before investing. The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (MOAT) is distributed by VanEck Securities Corporation, a wholly-owned subsidiary of VanEck Associates Corporation

    __

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    Cam Harvey’s Original 1986 Dissertation on Inverted Yield Curve: https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/Research/Thesis/Thesis.pdf

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    __

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (12:07) Early 2023 Harvey Raised Possibility That "This Might Be A False Signal"

    (18:39) VanEck Ad

    (19:18) Inverted Curves Go From Predicting Recessions To... Causing Them?

    (21:04) The Theoretical Support For Why Inverted Yield Curves Precede Recessions

    (25:18) The Impact Of Expectations of Federal Reserve Interest Rate Policy On The Yield Curve

    (30:52) Factors That Support A Soft Landing: Tight Labor Market and Strong Housing Market

    (36:44) What About The Chance That There Was Already A Recession In 2022?

    (42:41) Worries About The Banking System And "A Future Credit Squeeze"

    (46:05) Fed Should Cut Rates Right Now, Since Shelter Inflation Data Is Extremely Lagging

    (55:04) Closing Thoughts On Yield Curve

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice.


    Michael Howell: Federal Reserve Continues To Inject Liquidity Into Markets Via The Backdoor Jan 16, 2024
    Show notes

    Michaell Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on his outlook on global liquidity. Howell notes that further evidence supports his long-held view that liquidity bottomed in October 2022, and he explains why he expects liquidity to strengthen further into 2024, making for a favorable environment for liquidity-sensitive assets such as stocks, gold, and crypto. Filmed on January 11, 2024.

    Public dot com has just launched its new high-yield cash account, offering an industry-leading 5.1% APY. Learn more at https://public.com/forwardguidance.

    A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing. Funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn a variable interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. US only. Learn more at https://public.com/disclosures/high-yield-account

    __

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    Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

    __

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (00:57) Howell: Liquidity Conditions Continue To Strengthen From Their Lows In The Early Fall of 2022

    (12:26) Implications For Stocks, Gold, and Crypto

    (22:50) Industry Sectors At This Stage In The Liquidity Cycle

    (24:37) The Bond Market Is Being Distorted By The Federal Reserve

    (30:07) Term Premia And Convexity In Fixed-Income

    (37:07) Bank Term Funding Program and Draining of Fed's Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility

    (40:11) Drivers Of Fed Liquidity In 2024 and Beyond

    (45:50) The Economic Cycle Is Different Than The Liquidity Cycle

    (50:51) Is Demand For Refinancing (and Liquidity) Lower Because U.S. Corporates & Households Have Such Long-Duration Liabilities?

    (54:35) China and The People's Bank of China (PBOC)

    (01:06:56) Howell's View On Interest Rates

    (01:09:08) Non-Central Bank Sources of Liquidity

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    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


    Andy Verity on LIE-BOR: Shocking New Evidence Suggest Interest Rate Scandal Is Much, Much, Bigger Than Originally Reported Jan 16, 2024
    Show notes

    Andy Verity, Economics Correspondent for BBC News, joins Forward Guidance to discuss revelations from his new book, “Rigged: The Incredible True Story Of The Whistleblowers Jailed After Exposing The Rotten Heart Of The Financial System.” Verity argues that the traders who were convicted of rigging the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) are mere scapegoats, and that the real “rigging” was on a scale much larger and was encouraged by central bankers and bank CEOs. This interview features four recordings with former Barclays employee Peter Johnson, which show Johnson raising the alarm bell that nearly every bank was vastly underreporting their true cost of borrowing in the London Eurodollar market. Despite this, Johnson was later accused and convicted of conspiracy to defraud. These recordings are only a tiny fraction of the enormous amount of evidence Verity has collected, which can be found in his book as well as online in several links which will be shared below. Filmed on January 5, 2024.

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    Public dot com has just launched its new high-yield cash account, offering an industry-leading 5.1% APY. Learn more at https://public.com/forwardguidance.


    A High-Yield Cash Account is a secondary brokerage account with Public Investing. Funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn a variable interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance. Neither Public Investing nor any of its affiliates is a bank. US only. Learn more at https://public.com/disclosures/high-yield-account

    __

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    Andy Verity’s book: https://www.amazon.com/Rigged-Incredible-Whistleblowers-Exposing-Financial/dp/0750998857

    Rigged, You Be The Judge: https://andyverity.substack.com/p/rigged-you-be-the-judge-7ad?r=x2o5p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

    Andy's NEW Post (January 16, 2024), What the FBI + Gary Gensler's CFTC knew about interest rate manipulation ordered from the top - but didn't tell Congress or the public": https://andyverity.substack.com/p/what-the-fbi-gary-genslers-cftc-knew?r=x2o5p&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

    Andy Verity’s recordings on SoundCloud: https://soundcloud.com/andy-verity-74636470

    The Lowball Tapes: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0014wtn

    BBC News Panorama Program: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpUX1WJwivQ&t=96s

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    __

    Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

    __

    Timestamps:

    (00:00) Introduction

    (03:37) What is LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate)?

    (10:09) The Price Of No Apples

    (12:07) The Evidence (Taped Phone Calls)

    (23:22) Traders' Requests Were Punished Whereas "Lowballing" Was Not

    (37:08) Higher-ups' Involvement: Bank of England, BBA, Federal Reserve, U.K. Government

    (41:28) Gary Gensler's Role In Alleged Cover-Up

    (45:30) Peter Johnson, One Of The Very Few Who Cared That LIBOR Was Fraudulent, Was Sent To Jail

    (52:11) Lowballing Never Came To Court

    (55:03) The Fall of LIBOR, The Rise of SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate)

    (01:01:19) The LIBOR Trials In The Wake Of The Great Financial Crisis

    (01:17:59) Where The LIBOR Case Stands In 2024

    (01:26:15) The Future of Eurodollars And London In A LIBOR-Less World

    (01:29:25) Concluding Thoughts

    __

    Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


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